Hong Kong Speed Figures

[The Hare]

Saturday racing this week for a twilight meeting (afternoon Europe). Results added. A little late, sorry.

The horse mentioned earlier in thread, Parent's Love seemed to go off way too fast and weakened quickly in the final sectional in a race marred by the fall of 3 horses, Seasons Wit perhaps would have won the race.

 

[La Cressonnière]

SHA TIN 28/06/2025 -
Short day for me: I eliminate the races on the AWT, races over 5f and races > 8f

R4	R6	R9
COPARTNER FLEET	SOLAR RIVER	SUGAR BALL
LOVEISINTHEAIR	LUCKY MY WAY	ROMAN CROWN
SHINE BRIGHT	DAY DAY VICTORY	ONLY U
BETTER AND BETTER	SOLID IMPACT	RIDING TOGETHER
SUNNY SING SPIRIT	MAJESTIC DELIGHT	KA YING GLORY

 

[Outlander]

mobilised by conversation on another thread decided to rate jockeys by handicap weight effect, first go so don't know if its valid.
3 years data Hong Kong only rating in pounds

jockey	count	average lbs	count<10sp	average lbs<10sp	Rating
Z Purton	1933​	1.702582​	1718​	2.150952​	2.03​
J Kah	29​	1.195749​	14​	1.293292​	1.25​
J Moreira	64​	0.39183​	39​	1.591651​	1.17​
R Moore	80​	0.213147​	50​	1.508475​	1.06​
J McDonald	302​	0.409401​	206​	1.352299​	1.04​
C Y Ho	1335​	-0.22068​	653​	1.84188​	1.01​
B Shinn	79​	-0.18922​	25​	2.2​	0.97​
S De Sousa	434​	-0.26951​	216​	1.715479​	0.92​
H Bowman	1518​	-0.03938​	991​	1.044445​	0.68​
R Kingscote	42​	-0.78356​	12​	2.2​	0.59​
C Williams	27​	0.798783​	11​	0.423681​	0.59​
K Teetan	1891​	-0.86712​	866​	0.760699​	0.07​
A Atzeni	1160​	-1.1801​	400​	1.250311​	0.06​
M Barzalona	43​	-0.89943​	14​	0.584474​	-0.17​
A Badel	1587​	-1.46646​	519​	0.791306​	-0.35​
H Bentley	1292​	-1.56826​	366​	1.069367​	-0.36​
B Avdulla	1106​	-1.502​	386​	0.628343​	-0.41​
L Hewitson	1740​	-1.51842​	559​	0.684387​	-0.44​
L Ferraris	1321​	-1.59136​	396​	0.691369​	-0.51​
E C W Wong	517​	-1.68903​	189​	0.406576​	-0.59​
K C Leung	1466​	-1.89261​	377​	0.940843​	-0.66​
C L Chau	1179​	-1.94016​	278​	1.012884​	-0.72​
M Chadwick	1598​	-1.8405​	435​	0.569195​	-0.76​
Y L Chung	1425​	-1.99369​	414​	0.341835​	-0.91​
M F Poon	1408​	-2.10642​	290​	0.499796​	-1.11​
P N Wong	201​	-2.36072​	57​	0.027219​	-1.26​
J Orman	193​	-2.30125​	38​	0.149857​	-1.39​
K De Melo	636​	-2.31315​	110​	-0.04582​	-1.54​
M L Yeung	1070​	-2.6439​	146​	1.150175​	-1.54​
K H Chan	258​	-2.44808​	34​	0.372384​	-1.65​
M Dee	103​	-2.65289​	25​	-0.50638​	-1.75​
A Hamelin	1004​	-2.55912​	170​	-0.46689​	-1.85​
R Maia	221​	-2.65743​	35​	-0.17863​	-1.86​
T Marquand	50​	-2.32019​	12​	-1.47163​	-1.96​
V Borges	247​	-2.58943​	18​	-0.05682​	-2.14​
A Pouchin	105​	-2.74485​	20​	-1.45017​	-2.27​
B Thompson	610​	-3.12442​	61​	0.178035​	-2.36​
L Currie	367​	-3.03611​	37​	-0.25876​	-2.39​
H T Mo	405​	-3.88029​	26​	-0.41926​	-3.32​

 

[Outlander]

Trainers same method

count	average lbs	count<10sp	average lbs<10sp	Rating	Rating
K W Lui	1499​	-0.2075​	623​	2.2​	1.128492​
J Size	1764​	-0.33472​	837​	1.879915​	0.966085​
D Eustace	327​	-0.67452​	144​	1.874199​	0.776135​
P F Yiu	1578​	-0.69661​	639​	1.509369​	0.513366​
M Newnham	782​	-0.96007​	295​	1.293853​	0.236524​
C Fownes	1661​	-0.99182​	697​	1.090204​	0.168498​
F C Lor	1666​	-1.12057​	636​	1.280849​	0.161443​
C S Shum	1485​	-1.15984​	578​	1.238165​	0.131911​
D A Hayes	1674​	-1.24834​	620​	1.130967​	0.003925​
A S Cruz	1831​	-1.3102​	642​	1.116251​	-0.0663​
P C Ng	1758​	-1.2962​	715​	0.831335​	-0.12695​
D J Hall	1355​	-1.41672​	488​	0.91154​	-0.20758​
K L Man	1280​	-1.55821​	415​	1.176453​	-0.20983​
W K Mo	731​	-1.54148​	197​	1.360103​	-0.24433​
J Richards	1188​	-1.88883​	395​	0.705889​	-0.59311​
D J Whyte	1476​	-1.826​	460​	0.553207​	-0.67638​
W Y So	1357​	-1.71868​	389​	0.533551​	-0.67733​
T P Yung	1257​	-1.97356​	363​	0.279361​	-0.92777​
L Ho	266​	-2.39408​	70​	0.910769​	-0.93606​
C H Yip	1189​	-2.21363​	294​	0.402847​	-1.09932​
C W Chang	987​	-2.30163​	254​	-0.06289​	-1.32626​
K H Ting	827​	-2.36592​	183​	0.115921​	-1.37571​
Y S Tsui	939​	-2.69763​	197​	0.041254​	-1.63967​
R Gibson	265​	-2.76306​	54​	-0.05149​	-1.73431​
A T Millard	322​	-3.20307​	54​	-1.15895​	-2.51888​

mobilised by conversation on another thread decided to rate jockeys by handicap weight effect, first go so don't know if its valid.
3 years data Hong Kong only rating in pounds

jockey	count	average lbs	count<10sp	average lbs<10sp	Rating
Z Purton	1933​	1.702582​	1718​	2.150952​	2.03​
J Kah	29​	1.195749​	14​	1.293292​	1.25​
J Moreira	64​	0.39183​	39​	1.591651​	1.17​
R Moore	80​	0.213147​	50​	1.508475​	1.06​
J McDonald	302​	0.409401​	206​	1.352299​	1.04​
C Y Ho	1335​	-0.22068​	653​	1.84188​	1.01​
B Shinn	79​	-0.18922​	25​	2.2​	0.97​
S De Sousa	434​	-0.26951​	216​	1.715479​	0.92​
H Bowman	1518​	-0.03938​	991​	1.044445​	0.68​
R Kingscote	42​	-0.78356​	12​	2.2​	0.59​
C Williams	27​	0.798783​	11​	0.423681​	0.59​
K Teetan	1891​	-0.86712​	866​	0.760699​	0.07​
A Atzeni	1160​	-1.1801​	400​	1.250311​	0.06​
M Barzalona	43​	-0.89943​	14​	0.584474​	-0.17​
A Badel	1587​	-1.46646​	519​	0.791306​	-0.35​
H Bentley	1292​	-1.56826​	366​	1.069367​	-0.36​
B Avdulla	1106​	-1.502​	386​	0.628343​	-0.41​
L Hewitson	1740​	-1.51842​	559​	0.684387​	-0.44​
L Ferraris	1321​	-1.59136​	396​	0.691369​	-0.51​
E C W Wong	517​	-1.68903​	189​	0.406576​	-0.59​
K C Leung	1466​	-1.89261​	377​	0.940843​	-0.66​
C L Chau	1179​	-1.94016​	278​	1.012884​	-0.72​
M Chadwick	1598​	-1.8405​	435​	0.569195​	-0.76​
Y L Chung	1425​	-1.99369​	414​	0.341835​	-0.91​
M F Poon	1408​	-2.10642​	290​	0.499796​	-1.11​
P N Wong	201​	-2.36072​	57​	0.027219​	-1.26​
J Orman	193​	-2.30125​	38​	0.149857​	-1.39​
K De Melo	636​	-2.31315​	110​	-0.04582​	-1.54​
M L Yeung	1070​	-2.6439​	146​	1.150175​	-1.54​
K H Chan	258​	-2.44808​	34​	0.372384​	-1.65​
M Dee	103​	-2.65289​	25​	-0.50638​	-1.75​
A Hamelin	1004​	-2.55912​	170​	-0.46689​	-1.85​
R Maia	221​	-2.65743​	35​	-0.17863​	-1.86​
T Marquand	50​	-2.32019​	12​	-1.47163​	-1.96​
V Borges	247​	-2.58943​	18​	-0.05682​	-2.14​
A Pouchin	105​	-2.74485​	20​	-1.45017​	-2.27​
B Thompson	610​	-3.12442​	61​	0.178035​	-2.36​
L Currie	367​	-3.03611​	37​	-0.25876​	-2.39​
H T Mo	405​	-3.88029​	26​	-0.41926​	-3.32​

Trainers seem happy to let Purton ride 2lb overweight, looks a fair call on these figures.
of course he has much more opportunity than other jockeys , this is factored in to my rating.
I think his average position in the market is something like 2.25 , so that tells the story , the public make him favourite all the time.
These ratings just judging lbs advantage, if he is value in the market.
could do similar lbs advantage ratngs for market position and see compare his rating with that expected by his average market position see I’d that enlightens who is best value, I doubt it would be Purton, something for another day

 

[The Hare]

Very interesting O Outlander . Which thread is this on?

These are my jockeys based on the percentage of opponents beaten this season. I add Orman to the bottom as he seems to ne a regular rider now.

Chung and Poom are split as their jockey claim changed during the season, though Chung has now a better rating for his lower claim though not many rides on it yet.

 

[The Hare]

and trainers - Lui seems to be the higher on your ratings than this method.

 

[Outlander]

Very interesting O Outlander . Which thread is this on?

These are my jockeys based on the percentage of opponents beaten this season. I add Orman to the bottom as he seems to ne a regular rider now.

Chung and Poom are split as their jockey claim changed during the season, though Chung has now a better rating for his lower claim though not many rides on it yet.

View attachment 157938

Was on T tacker thread , how best to read form ? Talking about difference jockeys make.

 

[Outlander]

Very interesting O Outlander . Which thread is this on?

These are my jockeys based on the percentage of opponents beaten this season. I add Orman to the bottom as he seems to ne a regular rider now.

Chung and Poom are split as their jockey claim changed during the season, though Chung has now a better rating for his lower claim though not many rides on it yet.

View attachment 157938

Orman is firmly on the HK jockeys list now, I believe Hamelin is going back to France and Chan is finished lack of opportunities.

 

[Outlander]

Very interesting O Outlander . Which thread is this on?

These are my jockeys based on the percentage of opponents beaten this season. I add Orman to the bottom as he seems to ne a regular rider now.

Chung and Poom are split as their jockey claim changed during the season, though Chung has now a better rating for his lower claim though not many rides on it yet.

View attachment 157938

Yeung interested me when doing my ratings, his record is much better on sub 10 odds horses, sticks out a bit for those in similar rank

 

[The Hare]

Not much time, racing Tuesday this week at Sha Tin for Chinese National Day.

SHA TIN 28/06/2025 -
Short day for me: I eliminate the races on the AWT, races over 5f and races > 8f

R4	R6	R9
COPARTNER FLEET	SOLAR RIVER	SUGAR BALL
LOVEISINTHEAIR	LUCKY MY WAY	ROMAN CROWN
SHINE BRIGHT	DAY DAY VICTORY	ONLY U
BETTER AND BETTER	SOLID IMPACT	RIDING TOGETHER
SUNNY SING SPIRIT	MAJESTIC DELIGHT	KA YING GLORY

Some good calls first 2 races at least La Cressonnière

 

[La Cressonnière]

SHA TIN 01/07/2025

R5	R8	R10	R6
LIGHT YEARS CHARM	PEARL OF PANG'S	MAGNIFICENT NINE	BEAUTY GLORY
YOUNG CHAMPION	QUICK CONTRIBUTION	YUEN LONG ELITE	SOLID WIN
SOLEIL FIGHTER	HAPPY UNIVERSE	EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS	KA YING RADIANCE
TOURBILLON PRINCE	VIVA GRACIOUSNESS	FLYING LUCK	EMBLAZON
CHIU CHOW SPIRIT	MR COOL	EXCELLENCE VALUE	INNO SUPER

 

[Outlander]

For @ O Outlander Candlelight Dinner seems to have improved since Orman got on, Though a drop in class, move to Happy Valley easier to get home plus return to turf and finally the distance drop last time

Orman seems to have got to the bottom of another freewheeling lunatic Wonderstar, fuel gauges emptied very quickly before he got on them , this type seem to respond to a class drop and giving weight rather than receiving off classier opposition.

 

[The Hare]

Orman seems to have got to the bottom of another freewheeling lunatic Wonderstar, fuel gauges emptied very quickly before he got on them , this type seem to respond to a class drop and giving weight rather than receiving off classier opposition.

As you asked a career history of Wonderstar. The interesting thing is 6th run for Tsui after Ng. You wouldn't think a positive after my trainer ratings a few posts above this one.

If we forgive his runs over 1400+ and compare on the run under Britney, nearly a second quicker the first 2 sectionals and similar cslow inish for the final 400m so still a little out of control just a second furthwe down the track. As you predict from my final 400F ratings, the ratings for the last 400m of the race. It is interesting that Orman has got him to finish better the last 2 runs before putting in the faster first sectional yesterday - perhaps the removal of blinkers yesterday was the final help to get him home?

SP wise hasn't gone unnoticed last 3 runs on a very good mark and the drop to Class 4 as well, lots of plusses after timing!

 

[The Hare]

SHA TIN 01/07/2025

R5	R8	R10	R6
LIGHT YEARS CHARM	PEARL OF PANG'S	MAGNIFICENT NINE	BEAUTY GLORY
YOUNG CHAMPION	QUICK CONTRIBUTION	YUEN LONG ELITE	SOLID WIN
SOLEIL FIGHTER	HAPPY UNIVERSE	EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS	KA YING RADIANCE
TOURBILLON PRINCE	VIVA GRACIOUSNESS	FLYING LUCK	EMBLAZON
CHIU CHOW SPIRIT	MR COOL	EXCELLENCE VALUE	INNO SUPER

Lots of winners high up there La Cressonnière

 

[The Hare]

Results from Tuesday and card for Saturday this week. Seems had missed sectional positions for the previous meeting, so they are added as well.

I have had a look at my speed figures for the first griffin race here and seem a little high for the last race for them. Motor stands out on the ratings for that and when I compare with other Griffin races will drop. I use 3 standards for the 1000m races at Sha Tin and had the medium one for this, will change to the fast after loading up this meeting. Still an excellent effort from Motor, who has run in all the Griffin races and improved with each run. Now back to 6f be interesting to see if he can show the big step up last time.

 

[La Cressonnière]

SHA 05/07/2025 Only 4 races to bet in France

R1	R4	R10
ALABAMA SONG	BEAUTIFUL WIN	MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE
MOTOR	FAMILY FORTUNE	COLOURFUL KING
WINNING CHAMPION	CELTIC TIMES	AERIS NOVA
FIELD MARSHAL	PERFECT PEACH	HARMONY N BLESSED
	HARRY'S HERO	TOMODACHI KOKOROE

 

[Outlander]

SHA 05/07/2025 Only 4 races to bet in France

R1	R4	R10
ALABAMA SONG	BEAUTIFUL WIN	MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE
MOTOR	FAMILY FORTUNE	COLOURFUL KING
WINNING CHAMPION	CELTIC TIMES	AERIS NOVA
FIELD MARSHAL	PERFECT PEACH	HARMONY N BLESSED
	HARRY'S HERO	TOMODACHI KOKOROE

No idea how you had Alabama Song on top in race 1, very impressive La Cressonnière , well done

 

[La Cressonnière]

No idea how you had Alabama Song on top in race 1, very impressive La Cressonnière , well done

My speed rating Ajusted Weight in this race

Horse No.	Horse	SR WA
7​	ALABAMA SONG	56,0​
4​	MOTOR	55,8​
12​	WINNING CHAMPION	54,8​
9​	FIELD MARSHAL	53,1​
1​	LIGHT YEARS GLORY	53,0​
6​	YOUNG FIGHTER	52,2​
5​	SPARKLE AND GOLD	49,3​
8​	EMERGING STAR	48,0​
2​	KING DANCE	47,3​

 

[La Cressonnière]

No idea how you had Alabama Song on top in race 1, very impressive La Cressonnière , well done

a good day : Winner Quinella Trio and First 4 !

 

[Outlander]

My speed rating Ajusted Weight in this race

Horse No.	Horse	SR WA
7​	ALABAMA SONG	56,0​
4​	MOTOR	55,8​
12​	WINNING CHAMPION	54,8​
9​	FIELD MARSHAL	53,1​
1​	LIGHT YEARS GLORY	53,0​
6​	YOUNG FIGHTER	52,2​
5​	SPARKLE AND GOLD	49,3​
8​	EMERGING STAR	48,0​
2​	KING DANCE	47,3​

Incredible , Alabama Song 5.5 lengths behind Motor on his only ever run and same weights today, sectionals don’t look to be giving encouragement either. Still don’t know how you had it on top. Great stuff.