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Hong Kong Speed Figures

Results, next meeting Sunday 22nd

La Cressonnière said:
SHA TIN 14/06/2025
It will be a quiet day. In France, there are bets only on the first 4 races. I’m keeping Race 1, which is a Class 5 with poor-quality horses, and Race 4, which is interesting but has changes in distance and surface. On top of that, I’m not comfortable with my GA on the AWT.
R1R2
GOLD TACKMAGNIAC
BEAUTIFUL WINPATCH OF WATCH
SMASHING EXPRESSFUN N FUN TOGETHER
SUPREME WINNERHINOKAMI KAGURA
PERFECT PEACHROBOT KNIGHT
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Not many races for you there, not easy for ratings yesterday but you have the 2nd race winner in your 4 not too bad. Th going for the all weather not too many races I suppose but only the 3 distances helps, though often only use 1 on any day. Good luck.
 

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  • HK Results25.xlsx
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So a week or so ago I mentioned the super fast 2nd 200m sectional of Parents' Love. With the gap in racing I have corrected my sectionals for those horses that were non finishers, the last couple of years were ok buy before I had just left them all as errors for the whole race.

Then added some sectional positions for each race, they are on the official results but i had unwisely never kept them! After the recent discussions I have added them to my data now.

So for Parents' Love we can see that it doesn't quite have the stamina yet to get home over 1000m but has some blistering early. I mentioned previously that the horse appears to be staying better now as it gets stronger and I think interesting next season. As we can see it has led 9 of the last 10 races at the 600mark. Class 3 a little too hard at the moment though.

S are the sectional times from the start of the race
PIR are positions at the end of those sectionals
CT is the cumulative time for the horse.

The next idea is to work on percentage sectionals to improve my sectional ratings.

1750105705839.png
 
The Hare said:
So a week or so ago I mentioned the super fast 2nd 200m sectional of Parents' Love. With the gap in racing I have corrected my sectionals for those horses that were non finishers, the last couple of years were ok buy before I had just left them all as errors for the whole race.

Then added some sectional positions for each race, they are on the official results but i had unwisely never kept them! After the recent discussions I have added them to my data now.

So for Parents' Love we can see that it doesn't quite have the stamina yet to get home over 1000m but has some blistering early. I mentioned previously that the horse appears to be staying better now as it gets stronger and I think interesting next season. As we can see it has led 9 of the last 10 races at the 600mark. Class 3 a little too hard at the moment though.

S are the sectional times from the start of the race
PIR are positions at the end of those sectionals
CT is the cumulative time for the horse.

The next idea is to work on percentage sectionals to improve my sectional ratings.

View attachment 157605
Click to expand...
He is one of those full on speed horses, remember Super Axiom a couple of years ago and now the likes of Cheval Valiant who is even faster than Parents Love, I think Youthful Spirits another that has one way of going. Candlelight Dinner another lunatic that is learning to get to the end but was arguably faster than them all when he was uncontrollable. Bit higher class Glory Elite top speedball as well.
Parents Love done well all season at HV now has ST1000 races as options also. He will never win over 1200m neither will Cheval Valiant, amazingly Candlelight Dinner might. Think I have had winning and losing bets on most of these at some point, they just so straightforward you know they are going to hammer out and most of the time get caught in the last furlong. But hard not to like these lunatic types.
 
The Hare said:
So a week or so ago I mentioned the super fast 2nd 200m sectional of Parents' Love. With the gap in racing I have corrected my sectionals for those horses that were non finishers, the last couple of years were ok buy before I had just left them all as errors for the whole race.

Then added some sectional positions for each race, they are on the official results but i had unwisely never kept them! After the recent discussions I have added them to my data now.

So for Parents' Love we can see that it doesn't quite have the stamina yet to get home over 1000m but has some blistering early. I mentioned previously that the horse appears to be staying better now as it gets stronger and I think interesting next season. As we can see it has led 9 of the last 10 races at the 600mark. Class 3 a little too hard at the moment though.

S are the sectional times from the start of the race
PIR are positions at the end of those sectionals
CT is the cumulative time for the horse.

The next idea is to work on percentage sectionals to improve my sectional ratings.

View attachment 157605
Click to expand...
That's very interesting. The goal would be to find out whether there's a correlation between the position at the section checkpoints, the time spent in each section, and the final position at the finish.
 
So added in sectional positions for the last 800m split into 200s. Parents Love first.

1750165845458.png

For O Outlander Candlelight Dinner seems to have improved since Orman got on, Though a drop in class, move to Happy Valley easier to get home plus return to turf and finally the distance drop last time.

1750165879805.png

and also Glory Elite as you say a little higher class even tried 1600 once!

1750166068529.png
 
La Cressonnière said:
That's very interesting. The goal would be to find out whether there's a correlation between the position at the section checkpoints, the time spent in each section, and the final position at the finish.
Click to expand...
Hello La Cressonnière La Cressonnière

I can ad these to future results if you like, with the 200m positions best? Will put at the end of the rows.

As for earlier I could try and post or send you them if you want - say just the date, race number, position, horse and sectional positions? Don't want to big a file! We only have the 200m splits back to 12/11/2022.

Let me know if this is of use, you would need to concatenate and lookup to match but they should mostly be in the same order as the past posts.
 
The Hare said:
Hello La Cressonnière La Cressonnière

I can ad these to future results if you like, with the 200m positions best? Will put at the end of the rows.

As for earlier I could try and post or send you them if you want - say just the date, race number, position, horse and sectional positions? Don't want to big a file! We only have the 200m splits back to 12/11/2022.

Let me know if this is of use, you would need to concatenate and lookup to match but they should mostly be in the same order as the past posts.
Click to expand...
Yes it will be perfect to add them. And if it is possible to add them since the beginning of the season (Sept 2024). We will see if there is a correlation or not
 
The Hare said:
Hello La Cressonnière La Cressonnière

These are the sectional positions going back to the introduction of the 200m splits.

P0 the finish position
P200 is 200m from line and such.
Click to expand...
Initial quick analysis – correlation between a horse’s position at 600 m, 400 m and 200 m from the finish and its final placing. When I have time, I’ll merge the two files to dig deeper into draw and in-running position, sectional splits, and so on.
 

Attachments

  • Sectional_Position_Analysis_Report_v2.pdf
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Hello

Excellent work La Cressonnière La Cressonnière and very fast. Seems that class has no effect on the correlation, certainly over the 5 handicap classes but otherwise distance and going have some. When i get more time will look closer at the sectional and how they affect the ratings.

This is the card for Sunday, 11 races including a couple of Group 3 races and a lot of new or lightly raced runners around.

For anyone using it I have added an extra column at F for the age of the horse.
 

Attachments

  • 0622.xlsx
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tacker said:
SOTONA REVE 3.40 asc..............9/2 - 5/2.
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I backed this horse at 5/1 couple of days ago, thinking not many get this close to Ka Ying Rising, I think it will probably be 2nd like the other 3 horses I’ve backed at Ascot and about 15 of my last 20 bets. Another horse I backed Jaraaf smashed in from 14/1 so thats another to avoid.
 
Outlander said:
I backed this horse at 5/1 couple of days ago, thinking not many get this close to Ka Ying Rising, I think it will probably be 2nd like the other 3 horses I’ve backed at Ascot and about 15 of my last 20 bets. Another horse I backed Jaraaf smashed in from 14/1 so thats another to avoid.
Click to expand...
Let's hope it wins for you O Outlander and then you can pour yourself a full half a glass of beer to celebrate.
 
Outlander said:
I backed this horse at 5/1 couple of days ago, thinking not many get this close to Ka Ying Rising, I think it will probably be 2nd like the other 3 horses I’ve backed at Ascot and about 15 of my last 20 bets. Another horse I backed Jaraaf smashed in from 14/1 so thats another to avoid.
Click to expand...
Bad luck again.
 
Good call O Outlander just so tough Ascot, each way the way for those races.
La Cressonnière La Cressonnière good forecast on the 4th race.

The results and card added. Have added another column at the end of the card for best race time at the distance, this taken from the extra add ins on the HKJC site.

I have added the sectional positions to the end of the results for yesterday's meeting. These are just based on the times for each horse at the sectional point so I notice a lot of equal rankings at sectionals.

Say the last race I have Target Audience and Ghorgan as equal 5th at first sectional, the HK site positions has Ghorgan as 5th and TA as 6th. Same time but a slight precision error. Would take some time to amend that if wanted!
 

Attachments

  • HK Results25.xlsx
    159.1 KB · Views: 7
  • 250625.xlsx
    167.8 KB · Views: 3
HAPPY VALLEY 25/06/2025
R3R4R6R7R8R9
FLYING TING LOKAMAZING AWARDLAHORECALIFORNIA MOXIEAESTHETICISMDRAGON FOUR SEAS
VULCANUSGALAXY WITNESSMEGA BONUSWROTE A NEW PAGEANOTHER ZONDAYOUNG ARROW
FUN ELITESATIRICAL FANNEVER TOO SOONCAPITAL LEGENDSTELLAR SWIFTPOWER KOEPP
GLORY CLOUDCHAIN OF GOLDEXCEED THE WISHTO INFINITYA AMERIC TE SPECSOSTORM RIDER
VICTOR THE RAPIDFORTUNE STARALWAYS MY FOLKSJUMBO FORTUNEHAMERONEASON
 
La Cressonnière said:
HAPPY VALLEY 25/06/2025
R3R4R6R7R8R9
FLYING TING LOKAMAZING AWARDLAHORECALIFORNIA MOXIEAESTHETICISMDRAGON FOUR SEAS
VULCANUSGALAXY WITNESSMEGA BONUSWROTE A NEW PAGEANOTHER ZONDAYOUNG ARROW
FUN ELITESATIRICAL FANNEVER TOO SOONCAPITAL LEGENDSTELLAR SWIFTPOWER KOEPP
GLORY CLOUDCHAIN OF GOLDEXCEED THE WISHTO INFINITYA AMERIC TE SPECSOSTORM RIDER
VICTOR THE RAPIDFORTUNE STARALWAYS MY FOLKSJUMBO FORTUNEHAMERONEASON
Click to expand...
😍😎 very good end of the day; Pick quinella in R6 ; Quinella en Trio in R7 and Quinella en trio in R9
 
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