The Hare
Gelding
So having posted my data for Hong Kong racing, all results for the last 5 years, i thought it would be better to start a new thread to stop that being cluttered up on the Compiling Speed Figures Thread.
For some reason, I am a compulsive collector of data but usually never get round to calculating speed figures. During the lockdown i had some thoughts on how to compile them and calculate going allowances for meetings. I messed around with old Racing Post Ratings for past UK and Irish racing and came up with a method.
Hong Kong should be easy as they make all the actual times so easy to collect. But I am currently working on compiling standard times for the 3 tracks and then the ratings should follow quite automatically.
Obviously the impending re start of UK and Irish racing will make this a niche category, but we'll see how it goes.
Firstly I calculated the average finishing time of each horse over the last 5 years and using the 25th percentile calculated a standard time for each class. This was just to work out the difference between classes rather than in the Beyer type pars for class, the intention is to arrive at one standard time for each track and distance.
But this has confused me. The average class differences using the Hong Kong Official Handicap ratings and Racing Post ratings bear no resemblance to the figures I obtained using actual times, unless my method is incorrect, but it is similar to that used by most UK methods.
Attached is the table I have. The numbers are my speed ratings, Hong Kong Official ratings at start of race and Racing Post ratings for that race (so including lbs beaten). All are in lbs. The speed ratings are just the difference in average time between the classes converted into pounds.
For information, I used the average weight of the horses as being 1115 lbs (median is a couple less). This is for horses 4 and above on the spreadsheets posted earlier. So saying at 55.45 seconds equates to 20lbs per second. Any opinions on this are welcome.
Thanks
Kevin
For some reason, I am a compulsive collector of data but usually never get round to calculating speed figures. During the lockdown i had some thoughts on how to compile them and calculate going allowances for meetings. I messed around with old Racing Post Ratings for past UK and Irish racing and came up with a method.
Hong Kong should be easy as they make all the actual times so easy to collect. But I am currently working on compiling standard times for the 3 tracks and then the ratings should follow quite automatically.
Obviously the impending re start of UK and Irish racing will make this a niche category, but we'll see how it goes.
Firstly I calculated the average finishing time of each horse over the last 5 years and using the 25th percentile calculated a standard time for each class. This was just to work out the difference between classes rather than in the Beyer type pars for class, the intention is to arrive at one standard time for each track and distance.
But this has confused me. The average class differences using the Hong Kong Official Handicap ratings and Racing Post ratings bear no resemblance to the figures I obtained using actual times, unless my method is incorrect, but it is similar to that used by most UK methods.
Attached is the table I have. The numbers are my speed ratings, Hong Kong Official ratings at start of race and Racing Post ratings for that race (so including lbs beaten). All are in lbs. The speed ratings are just the difference in average time between the classes converted into pounds.
For information, I used the average weight of the horses as being 1115 lbs (median is a couple less). This is for horses 4 and above on the spreadsheets posted earlier. So saying at 55.45 seconds equates to 20lbs per second. Any opinions on this are welcome.
Thanks
Kevin