Chesham
Sire
hedgehog said:
Hi Hedgehog
Turn the question around where about's in the Betting forecast does your winning bets come from.
It may surprise you but in Class 2 Handicaps those priced 5/4 have a positive ROI of 35% and have won 61.5% of races and the expected is only 44.4%
11/8 have won 50% against and expected 42% and a Positive ROI%
20/1 have won 3.6% against and expected 4.8% and a Negative ROI of -25.2%
I think VDW said you are pushing the odds against you
Good Luck
Chesham
hedgehog
Dam
Hello Chesham and Arkroyal,
Thanks Arkroyal, the selection method works well it's my form reading that is the weak link but it's nice to be reminded that I am doing part of it right. Thanks again.
Hello Chesham, as ever a thought provoking post and one I'll give serious thought to. J think I'm doing the form horse part right though because it is a new process I'm making mistakes but I've developed my rules from some vdw examples and tried it out on recent examples and found form horses win 91% of races so it is worth continuing but I need t stay with my subset. Thanks again
Thanks Arkroyal, the selection method works well it's my form reading that is the weak link but it's nice to be reminded that I am doing part of it right. Thanks again.
Hello Chesham, as ever a thought provoking post and one I'll give serious thought to. J think I'm doing the form horse part right though because it is a new process I'm making mistakes but I've developed my rules from some vdw examples and tried it out on recent examples and found form horses win 91% of races so it is worth continuing but I need t stay with my subset. Thanks again
mtoto
Gelding
Hedgehog,
We have known each other through forums for some time now and I think you know I would never put you wrong on purpose. If you look at Mimrob's race analysis of the Ripon 4:10 on the Statting Island thread (in the tips forum) you will see a very good I would go as far as to say brilliant reading of form. You will notice there is NO mention of forecasts and or betting, although that doesn't mean they were ignored, but they play no part in the worth of the actual form!!
The only difference between Mimbob's analysis and my own is Mimrobs use of stats or at least the use of the %. I looked at some of the horses and eliminated them because of the going, lack of proven class etc but the actual % played no important part the fact they had failed more than once was enough.
The market and forecast are just other folks interpretation of the facts that make up the form. I don't doubt for one moment the figures quoted by Chesham are correct but what relation do they play to the actual form? Do all 20/1 shots only stand a 3.6% of winning? Does a consistent class horse that goes off at 20/1 because he has an unfashionable trainer still only in with the same chance as a horse with no form, but at that price because of the trainer/jockey/hype etc??
In that race yesterday I had five horses with proven form in that class or higher, for me they therefore are form horses. Ok some were not IN form but that is a different matter . I then checked to see if the form horse could handle the conditions eliminating those who had shown they couldn't this took out the top two rated form horses. I then look at the other runners non of whom I have as form horses but some are in form horses and they are also checked about handling condition and CLASS . For basically the same reasons as Mimrob mentions they were eliminated. I'm down to three contenders one is a form horse whose target is this race, the preparation has been the same as previous years. There can be no doubt he is in this to win it. The only danger for me was another horse using this as a prep race possibly hoping for a penalty to ensure a run in a big race in the future. I did mention him in my analyses and did consider backing him as well I cried off when the going was not as heavy as hoped for.
So in short form is the worth of a performance, and has nothing to do with betting forecasts or markets. These are just other peoples opinions about the worth, in the case of the live market it MAYBE the majority opinion but why would you think Joe Public knows more than you? The only time I would take any real notice of the market is in the type of race I don't bet in, races with little or no form to go on.
Be Lucky
We have known each other through forums for some time now and I think you know I would never put you wrong on purpose. If you look at Mimrob's race analysis of the Ripon 4:10 on the Statting Island thread (in the tips forum) you will see a very good I would go as far as to say brilliant reading of form. You will notice there is NO mention of forecasts and or betting, although that doesn't mean they were ignored, but they play no part in the worth of the actual form!!
The only difference between Mimbob's analysis and my own is Mimrobs use of stats or at least the use of the %. I looked at some of the horses and eliminated them because of the going, lack of proven class etc but the actual % played no important part the fact they had failed more than once was enough.
The market and forecast are just other folks interpretation of the facts that make up the form. I don't doubt for one moment the figures quoted by Chesham are correct but what relation do they play to the actual form? Do all 20/1 shots only stand a 3.6% of winning? Does a consistent class horse that goes off at 20/1 because he has an unfashionable trainer still only in with the same chance as a horse with no form, but at that price because of the trainer/jockey/hype etc??
In that race yesterday I had five horses with proven form in that class or higher, for me they therefore are form horses. Ok some were not IN form but that is a different matter . I then checked to see if the form horse could handle the conditions eliminating those who had shown they couldn't this took out the top two rated form horses. I then look at the other runners non of whom I have as form horses but some are in form horses and they are also checked about handling condition and CLASS . For basically the same reasons as Mimrob mentions they were eliminated. I'm down to three contenders one is a form horse whose target is this race, the preparation has been the same as previous years. There can be no doubt he is in this to win it. The only danger for me was another horse using this as a prep race possibly hoping for a penalty to ensure a run in a big race in the future. I did mention him in my analyses and did consider backing him as well I cried off when the going was not as heavy as hoped for.
So in short form is the worth of a performance, and has nothing to do with betting forecasts or markets. These are just other peoples opinions about the worth, in the case of the live market it MAYBE the majority opinion but why would you think Joe Public knows more than you? The only time I would take any real notice of the market is in the type of race I don't bet in, races with little or no form to go on.
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
VDW Quote
" The further you stray from the Market leaders the less you are likely to succeed."
" Accept, or better still prove for yourself, that a high percentage of races are won by Form Horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market."
Another Idea VDW suggested was using the Sporting Life and involved the Principle non-Handicap Chase and Principle Handicap Chase
VDW " Note the high percentage of winners which come from the first two of three horses in the betting forecast. Keeping in mid that Form Horses win a high percentage of races and when the work is done, wager only if the resultant selection is in the first two of the forecast.."
VDW also linked the Betting Market in an idea he suggested for making a list of horses to follow. ( There were many different ideas from VDW for making Lists, but this one interested me as it linked last time odds to performance)
The idea concentrated on the the two Highest Prize money races. List any that were in the first two home, providing that they were in the first three in the betting market> You would have to ask yourself why is VDW saying that the Betting Market for a past race should be linked to the result when placing a horse on a list to follow. VDW is clearly linking the Form of a race to their position in Betting Market in that said race ????
In the Roushayd Races VDW had put the SP of the Horses that competed in his last three race profile.
Lee also linked the importance of the Betting market Lee "Probability is odds and as we all know, when looking at the form of a past race the best horse (the winner) in the race isn't always favourite. This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form. What did the winner do in each of its last 3 races? Was it involved from the distance? Who was it involved against? This will help evaluate the strength of the race its just won. VDW said to go back as far as you like, and that the exercise would be useful."
Keeping in Mind that Hedgehogs posts on this and another Forum have been win only bets
My Question to Hedgehog was Turn the question around where about's in the Betting forecast does your winning bets come from.
The winner of yesterdays race was in the first 5 of the Racing Post Forecast
Looking at Past Class 2 Handicaps at Ripon over 8f and SP
20-1, 0/13
22-1, 0/1
25-1, 0/5
28-1, 0/5
33-1, 0/10
40-1, 0/3
50-1, 0/8
I guess it is which pool you want to be fishing in
Good Luck
Chesham
" The further you stray from the Market leaders the less you are likely to succeed."
" Accept, or better still prove for yourself, that a high percentage of races are won by Form Horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market."
Another Idea VDW suggested was using the Sporting Life and involved the Principle non-Handicap Chase and Principle Handicap Chase
VDW " Note the high percentage of winners which come from the first two of three horses in the betting forecast. Keeping in mid that Form Horses win a high percentage of races and when the work is done, wager only if the resultant selection is in the first two of the forecast.."
VDW also linked the Betting Market in an idea he suggested for making a list of horses to follow. ( There were many different ideas from VDW for making Lists, but this one interested me as it linked last time odds to performance)
The idea concentrated on the the two Highest Prize money races. List any that were in the first two home, providing that they were in the first three in the betting market> You would have to ask yourself why is VDW saying that the Betting Market for a past race should be linked to the result when placing a horse on a list to follow. VDW is clearly linking the Form of a race to their position in Betting Market in that said race ????
In the Roushayd Races VDW had put the SP of the Horses that competed in his last three race profile.
Lee also linked the importance of the Betting market Lee "Probability is odds and as we all know, when looking at the form of a past race the best horse (the winner) in the race isn't always favourite. This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form. What did the winner do in each of its last 3 races? Was it involved from the distance? Who was it involved against? This will help evaluate the strength of the race its just won. VDW said to go back as far as you like, and that the exercise would be useful."
Keeping in Mind that Hedgehogs posts on this and another Forum have been win only bets
My Question to Hedgehog was Turn the question around where about's in the Betting forecast does your winning bets come from.
The winner of yesterdays race was in the first 5 of the Racing Post Forecast
Looking at Past Class 2 Handicaps at Ripon over 8f and SP
20-1, 0/13
22-1, 0/1
25-1, 0/5
28-1, 0/5
33-1, 0/10
40-1, 0/3
50-1, 0/8
I guess it is which pool you want to be fishing in
Good Luck
Chesham
mick
Sire
mtoto said:
I would go further and say excellent post.My take on the ripon race was that No poppy was top on my figs at +1 however i could see profile negatives which caused me to decide it was a no bet situation.I will not waffle to much about this but one was my opinon that she needed to run to her best inorder to win this event and that soft ground was needed to enable this.Also my next best at -1 Robert the painter had a 5lb claimer up which if allowing him a couple of lbs of this brought him to close for comfort on my figs.The winner was third top on my figs at -2 with a good 5lb claimer up but having decided that i could not back No poppy i also did not wish to bet against my figs.RE The markets and betting fc.It is correct that the majority of winners come from the front end of the market and in theory if you go against this then you are increasing your risk,but it is also a fact that the majority of punters will be long term losers and its this area where most play.The fact that there is so much racing these days plus the "trend" of reducing staff means that both the fiddlers odds complilers and the RP and SL fc prouducers can and do make mistakes.If you where a betting owner is this not the very situation you would desire your trainer to create.?
I know now that there is only one horse i will be interested in backing tomorrow i have done and rechecked all the work.So i await the EP markets to go up.I know the minium price i will be prepared to accept but there is no limit on the maxium.
mtoto
Gelding
That said from your post should I only be looking at the first 5/6 in the betting for form horses? Please?
Chesham.
All I was trying to do was answer the question Hedgehog asked. I have no problem with the majority of winners coming from the front of the market and or forecast, but that doesn't automatically make them form horse or not.
" Accept, or better still prove for yourself, that a high percentage of races are won by Form Horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market."
Surely the operative word here is FORM, and yes often they will be short(er)priced, but outsiders can still be form horses.
The winner of yesterdays race was in the first 5 of the Racing Post Forecast
Fair enough, but it wasn't in the first six of the Sporting Life so just a difference of opinion between two compilers but the form was the same, just a difference of pinion
Not sure what the list of losers proves/shows I can give a list of winning outsiders that are proven form horses many being backed up with consistency and even a few that didn't make the lowest 5/6 in the forecast.
I guess it is which pool you want to be fishing in
I want to fish in the pool where the class/form horses go of at a good price
Be Lucky
Chesham.
All I was trying to do was answer the question Hedgehog asked. I have no problem with the majority of winners coming from the front of the market and or forecast, but that doesn't automatically make them form horse or not.
" Accept, or better still prove for yourself, that a high percentage of races are won by Form Horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market."
Surely the operative word here is FORM, and yes often they will be short(er)priced, but outsiders can still be form horses.
The winner of yesterdays race was in the first 5 of the Racing Post Forecast
Fair enough, but it wasn't in the first six of the Sporting Life so just a difference of opinion between two compilers but the form was the same, just a difference of pinion
Not sure what the list of losers proves/shows I can give a list of winning outsiders that are proven form horses many being backed up with consistency and even a few that didn't make the lowest 5/6 in the forecast.
I guess it is which pool you want to be fishing in
I want to fish in the pool where the class/form horses go of at a good price
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Hi Mtoto
You are a VDW follower and Hedgehog is also a follower and I am sure you are not trying to put him wrong. Hedgehog is someone who I have frequently PM'd on other forums about many aspects of racing, so would have understood yesterday when I warned him pre race about DD, going against the odds in this particular race my advice was not given after the race had been run.
I also brought to Hedgehogs attention in a previous analysis that shebebi now had the desired going conditions.
Hedgehog had two contenders for this race Smarty Socks and Shebebi. The advertised going had put Hedgehog of Shebebi and when the going changed I alerted Hedgehog.
Along with the Traditional method of rating Ability, Hedgehog might consider using the To Agori Mou method as an alternative Ability rating and that would have separated his two Probables
Using the Alternative method as a quick way to Rate
Shebebi Highest Top Speed was in a race with a Penalty Value = £74K
Smarty Socks
Highest Top Speed Fig was in a Race with a Penalty Value= £51K Race
The market also seemed to back up the difference
quote VDW "Taking all races, other figures show that 83% of winners come from the first 5 quotes in the betting Forecast (The Sporting Life Forecast these days is from a central source that supplies many of the daily Newspapers too) This also shows that selecting a horse which does not appear in this range is again tantamount to going against the odds. The only exception I make to this is when a highly consistent horse fails to show in this area of the forecast.
It may be that the horse is out classed in present company, but a check should always be made.
The Combination of these two factors ( Betting Forecast/Consistency) narrows the field to an area which consistently produce a high percentage of winners.
Re Your Question Do all 20/1 shots only stand a 3.6% of winning Answer No, if they were true 20/1 shots then they should win 4.8% of Class 2 Handicaps on Turf.
Again please note my question to Hedgehog "Turn the question around where about's in the Betting forecast does your winning bets come from. "
The reason I ask is that from memory, I think that the winning selections from Hedgehog have been from the first 5 in the betting forecast.
Mtoto, I know that you prefer to find opportunities where you can back EW and therefore the odds on offer will be of concern at the short end of the market, you have your own preference and I understand that. The Little Owl type bet would not be one that would interest you. At the end of the day it is your profit line that counts and if you can make the 20/1 shots and bigger pay, by betting EW then good for you as you are very much beating the odds, especially as Bookmakers use outsiders to make their profit, by offering odds on big outsiders, well below their true probability.
VDW mentioned a method of listing horses for future consideration, ie Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad that they were found 1st or 2nd in the highest and second highest Prize Money race and the proviso that they should also be first three in the SP for their respective races.
Mtoto why do you think VDW gave any importance to SP, with regards the finishing performance of Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad when deciding if they should go on a list to follow.
Good Luck
Chesham
You are a VDW follower and Hedgehog is also a follower and I am sure you are not trying to put him wrong. Hedgehog is someone who I have frequently PM'd on other forums about many aspects of racing, so would have understood yesterday when I warned him pre race about DD, going against the odds in this particular race my advice was not given after the race had been run.
I also brought to Hedgehogs attention in a previous analysis that shebebi now had the desired going conditions.
Hedgehog had two contenders for this race Smarty Socks and Shebebi. The advertised going had put Hedgehog of Shebebi and when the going changed I alerted Hedgehog.
Along with the Traditional method of rating Ability, Hedgehog might consider using the To Agori Mou method as an alternative Ability rating and that would have separated his two Probables
Using the Alternative method as a quick way to Rate
Shebebi Highest Top Speed was in a race with a Penalty Value = £74K
Smarty Socks
Highest Top Speed Fig was in a Race with a Penalty Value= £51K Race
The market also seemed to back up the difference
quote VDW "Taking all races, other figures show that 83% of winners come from the first 5 quotes in the betting Forecast (The Sporting Life Forecast these days is from a central source that supplies many of the daily Newspapers too) This also shows that selecting a horse which does not appear in this range is again tantamount to going against the odds. The only exception I make to this is when a highly consistent horse fails to show in this area of the forecast.
It may be that the horse is out classed in present company, but a check should always be made.
The Combination of these two factors ( Betting Forecast/Consistency) narrows the field to an area which consistently produce a high percentage of winners.
Re Your Question Do all 20/1 shots only stand a 3.6% of winning Answer No, if they were true 20/1 shots then they should win 4.8% of Class 2 Handicaps on Turf.
Again please note my question to Hedgehog "Turn the question around where about's in the Betting forecast does your winning bets come from. "
The reason I ask is that from memory, I think that the winning selections from Hedgehog have been from the first 5 in the betting forecast.
Mtoto, I know that you prefer to find opportunities where you can back EW and therefore the odds on offer will be of concern at the short end of the market, you have your own preference and I understand that. The Little Owl type bet would not be one that would interest you. At the end of the day it is your profit line that counts and if you can make the 20/1 shots and bigger pay, by betting EW then good for you as you are very much beating the odds, especially as Bookmakers use outsiders to make their profit, by offering odds on big outsiders, well below their true probability.
VDW mentioned a method of listing horses for future consideration, ie Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad that they were found 1st or 2nd in the highest and second highest Prize Money race and the proviso that they should also be first three in the SP for their respective races.
Mtoto why do you think VDW gave any importance to SP, with regards the finishing performance of Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad when deciding if they should go on a list to follow.
Good Luck
Chesham
mtoto
Gelding
It may be that the horse is out classed in present company, but a check should always be made.
Chesham,
Doesn't the above show VDW DIDN'T take the forecast at face value and he always checked for himself? There can always be mistakes and/or differences of opinions between compilers.
Hedgehog had two contenders for this race Smarty Socks and Shebebi.
From memory this is the race I was talking about, to me anyway it was a prep race for Smarty Socks he was entered in a big (for him) race a couple of days later at the York meeting. If they were even a little bit serious about York it would have just been a work out as a penalty would not help the cause.
why do you think VDW gave any importance to SP, with regards the finishing performance of Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad when deciding if they should go on a list to follow.
The blunt answer to that is to keep the list manageable, as it was the last filter added. The speed figure first, meeting next, class of race , first or second in said race, last position in betting.
Re Your Question Do all 20/1 shots only stand a 3.6% of winning Answer No, if they were true 20/1 shots then they should win 4.8% of Class 2 Handicaps on Turf.
What happens if they are not true 20/1 shots but say 10/1 or less in drag ? How does anyone decide what are the TRUE odds why is someone else GUESS any better than mine? Have you never looked a a horse and thought that price is crazy?
Anyway I'm not trying to change your mind about it, the more folk that believe the prices returned by the bookies or shown in the paper are an accurate reflection on form, the longer some will have an edge.
Be Lucky
Chesham,
Doesn't the above show VDW DIDN'T take the forecast at face value and he always checked for himself? There can always be mistakes and/or differences of opinions between compilers.
Hedgehog had two contenders for this race Smarty Socks and Shebebi.
From memory this is the race I was talking about, to me anyway it was a prep race for Smarty Socks he was entered in a big (for him) race a couple of days later at the York meeting. If they were even a little bit serious about York it would have just been a work out as a penalty would not help the cause.
why do you think VDW gave any importance to SP, with regards the finishing performance of Vague Shot and Bin Shaddad when deciding if they should go on a list to follow.
The blunt answer to that is to keep the list manageable, as it was the last filter added. The speed figure first, meeting next, class of race , first or second in said race, last position in betting.
Re Your Question Do all 20/1 shots only stand a 3.6% of winning Answer No, if they were true 20/1 shots then they should win 4.8% of Class 2 Handicaps on Turf.
What happens if they are not true 20/1 shots but say 10/1 or less in drag ? How does anyone decide what are the TRUE odds why is someone else GUESS any better than mine? Have you never looked a a horse and thought that price is crazy?
Anyway I'm not trying to change your mind about it, the more folk that believe the prices returned by the bookies or shown in the paper are an accurate reflection on form, the longer some will have an edge.
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
mtoto said:
Hi Mtoto
Those who know me from my pre race posts, know that I am able to appraise the odds as to their chance of winning quite well.
Example where I mention odds (From Paid Subscribers Flatstats) Note that I mention the Favourite in the race is a filly and the odds against a Filly Winning are very poor.
Southwell 3.00
Corn Snow, I like his pedigree and his half brother Zip Top has already performed well in Group races. The Dam has been mated similar to Zip Top using the Mr Prospector Male Tail Line.
Zip Top was a BR 1 so hopefully Corn Snow might yet be better than Zip Top
The other aspect is that this horse is USA Sire, USA Dam and USA Dam Sire Dam and we saw one of those perform above our expectations awhile back.
Mark Johnston has won this Race twice out of the three years that it has been run. Corn Snow also has a Entry in a Musselburgh maiden on Sunday over 12f, so today starting out over 8f to see how he does and likely to be stepped up in distance later on.
Colts Race Stats
Colts 16/73 21.9% 45.2% 2.12 1.27 £66.68 91.3%
The Current Favourite is a Filly
Fillies 4/95 4.2% 20.0% 0.41 0.42 £-78.28 -82.4%
M Johnston/Fanning/Maktoum stats in Southwell Maidens
13/26 50.0% 65.4% 1.00 1.19 £13.03 50.1%
I would expect Corn Snow to be Favourite by the start of the race
Selection = Corn Snow
Of course the Bookies prices are not an accurate reflection of form, if they were they would go out of business, they try to offer odds that are below the probability of the horse winning. The A/E (Actual against Expected), for the false favourite above,was 0.42 which is very poor)
In the event the Filly remained favourite despite being a false favourite and my selection won at a good price, considering that I considered that Corn Snow should have been favourite.
Another Example
Lingfield 2.30
ADJ Rating = Adjusted BHA Rating
SF = My personal Speed Figure
Horse, AdJ Rating, SF,
DRAWNFROMTHEPAST, 48, 104
WATERLOO DOCK, 56, 78
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, 50, 77
MAMBO SPIRIT, 50, 76
HINTON ADMIRAL, 51, 64
When I first saw the SF for Drawnfromthepast, I thought that I must have got it wrong. Then I checked the racing for that day and found that his SF was higher than all the other races including that of Pale Orchid’s
Looking at the LTO performance of Drawnfromthepast, the Winner was Brenin Tara, who LTO was only 2.25 Lengths Behind Seek The Fair Land
Motley Crew who was 3rd behind Drawnfromthepast in his last race, and LTO Motley Crew was only 4.5 lengths behind Palace Moon.
Trainer/Jockey Combo AW =2/3 and AW & Turf = 4/9
At the moment Hinton Admiral is Favourite but come race time I would expect Drawnfromthepast to have replaced him as favourite
Drawnfromthepast was backed in to Joint Favourite
Mtoto, as you can see from the above Pre race examples I appraise the odds, so not sure why you think otherwise. Remember I pointed out that DD was a :naughty: before the race was run.
Stat of The Day thread ( Betting Tips) came up trumps too Posted 9.50am
(Morning price: 6/4 5/4)
(Ring price: 5/4 6/5 11/10 1/1 10/11 1/1 5/6 4/5 8/11) SP
Useful Alert that I use For Haggas on the AW
Trainer = W J Haggas
Type (Horse) = Maiden
Age = 3 AND
Total Runs > 0
Ages = 3yo
To explain
Trainer Haggas on the AW in Maiden races
Age 3 y-o Runner
Total Runs, should have had at least one run
Ages (Race restricted to 3 year old runners)
19 wins from 42 runs, 45% strike rate, £23 profit, 54% ROI
20/43 since tonights qualifier.
Good Luck
Chesham
mtoto
Gelding
Mtoto, as you can see from the above Pre race examples I appraise the odds, so not sure why you think otherwise. Remember I pointed out that DD was a :naughty: before the race was run.
Chesham,
I have never thought you don't appraise the odds, I was only trying to point out just because the compilers, bookies or forecast compilers don't rated a performance doesn't mean that performance is worth any less.
I really can't comment of the examples you have put up as they are all races I wouldn't even look at.
Be Lucky
Chesham,
I have never thought you don't appraise the odds, I was only trying to point out just because the compilers, bookies or forecast compilers don't rated a performance doesn't mean that performance is worth any less.
I really can't comment of the examples you have put up as they are all races I wouldn't even look at.
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Mtoto RE "I really can't comment of the examples you have put up as they are all races I wouldn't even look at."
It is very rare for you to get involved in a Pre Race evaluation on any of the Forums that you and I have been on, but there was one occasion where we both evaluated the same race. So it might be interesting for Forum Members here to see how you and I evaluated the Form on a Pre Race post
Quote Mtoto
I think this would be very interesting to see.
A/R, Arkle.
Newb 2:00
Purple Moon 1
Akmal 2*
Manifest 3
Polly's Mark 4*
* = probable along with Buxted
Purple Moon been chasing the money abroad. Can't see any proof he has lost any of his ability. Course, distance and going should not be any problem. Although the time of the course MAYBE down to injury but can't find anything about an injury.
Akmal, something to find with one. Best form todate on stiff courses, don't think he has the raw speed to win this.
Manifest, The same applies as the above, the only difference with him is this is the first time he has tried a flat course.
Polly's Mark, Her best form todate has been against her own sex. Course, distance, and going look fine. While she is close enough on the figures to give the two above her a race she will need to improve to beat the top rated.
The above is how I usually show my post's, but how do I get here?
First I rate the whole field for ability, this is how that looked.. higest first
Traffic Guard
Clowance
Halicarnassus
Allied Powers
Balkan Knight
Purple Moon
Furmigadelagiusta
Akmal
Manifest
Polly's Mark
Dansili Dancer
Claremont
2nd (next) I then I mark of the lowest five for consistency
Buxted
Akmal
Polly's Mark
Manifest
Blizzard Blues
Purple Moon
From this I mark of the positions in the Life forecast this is to find the probables.. Something I don't think as important as Fulham. As the probables are purely based on stats. I'm quite happy if my rated horses don't show as a probable as the ratings ARE based on class and form, not pure stats.
As shown above the the probables are
From step 2 I then rank the horses in ability order
Purple Moon 1
Akmal 2
Manifest 3
Polly's Mark 4
I always keep an eye on the horses the just miss being in the lowest five. In this race the lowest is 9 but there are 3 with a 10 silly to just ignore them because of one finishing positition.
Oasis Knight
Clowance
Balkan Knight
Of these Clowance looks to have the strongest form, That was on a stiff track but he has shown hie can handle Newbury but against weaker competition than this.
Two of the three probables have been dealt with in the ratings so the leaves Buxted. His form so far is all A/W and I can't really see any reason to think he will handle this class of race.
If I back in this race the bet would be Polly's Mark to place.
Be Lucky
This was how I evaluated Pre race on the same Thread
Quote Chesham
Mtoto
The thing that would bother me about Polly's Mark is that she has only won 3 races of which two were for Fillies only. The only race that she won against mixed opposition saw Chiberta King in 2nd place who had previously only won a Class 97 handicap, so Winning Form Looks suspect against the class of horses that are racing today.
LTO Polly's Mark was second in a Class 255, again Fillies and Mares only race, which saw a 20/1 previous maiden winner take the race, so to me the form looks suspect for Polly's Mark to step up in class today against mixed opposition. Of course I am only looking at the race from her chance of winning and you have suggested a place bet at best if you did bet.
Purple Moon will need a decent pace to be seen at his best over 12f and it will be a difficult task as the pace, what little pace there is, will be on the other side, where Akmal looks to be the pace lead.
The unexposed horse in the race who is likely to improve at 4 is Harbinger, 5th on Ability Ratings which is good for a horse so lightly raced, who first ran in a 8f maiden over 8f (Too Short as he held a St Leger Entry) Then put over 10f at Chester and won as expected and was a good performance. Did hold a Derby entry but a torn muscle put paid to that ambition. Was not seen out again until July when he won going up in class and won as planned. Next race something was drastically wrong and is best forgotten. Finally last race of 2009 he was not put into the race to win and did well on very unsuitable ground.
Whatever the outcome of todays race, Harbinger will be an interesting prospect this year if he keeps sound and Sir Michael Stoute will have a plan mapped out for this one during 2010
Note Harbinger did not even feature in your evaluation
Harbinger not only won that race at 11/2 2nd fav, but was unbeaten afterwards culminating in winning KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (GROUP 1)
Good Luck
Chehsam
It is very rare for you to get involved in a Pre Race evaluation on any of the Forums that you and I have been on, but there was one occasion where we both evaluated the same race. So it might be interesting for Forum Members here to see how you and I evaluated the Form on a Pre Race post
Quote Mtoto
I think this would be very interesting to see.
A/R, Arkle.
Newb 2:00
Purple Moon 1
Akmal 2*
Manifest 3
Polly's Mark 4*
* = probable along with Buxted
Purple Moon been chasing the money abroad. Can't see any proof he has lost any of his ability. Course, distance and going should not be any problem. Although the time of the course MAYBE down to injury but can't find anything about an injury.
Akmal, something to find with one. Best form todate on stiff courses, don't think he has the raw speed to win this.
Manifest, The same applies as the above, the only difference with him is this is the first time he has tried a flat course.
Polly's Mark, Her best form todate has been against her own sex. Course, distance, and going look fine. While she is close enough on the figures to give the two above her a race she will need to improve to beat the top rated.
The above is how I usually show my post's, but how do I get here?
First I rate the whole field for ability, this is how that looked.. higest first
Traffic Guard
Clowance
Halicarnassus
Allied Powers
Balkan Knight
Purple Moon
Furmigadelagiusta
Akmal
Manifest
Polly's Mark
Dansili Dancer
Claremont
2nd (next) I then I mark of the lowest five for consistency
Buxted
Akmal
Polly's Mark
Manifest
Blizzard Blues
Purple Moon
From this I mark of the positions in the Life forecast this is to find the probables.. Something I don't think as important as Fulham. As the probables are purely based on stats. I'm quite happy if my rated horses don't show as a probable as the ratings ARE based on class and form, not pure stats.
As shown above the the probables are
From step 2 I then rank the horses in ability order
Purple Moon 1
Akmal 2
Manifest 3
Polly's Mark 4
I always keep an eye on the horses the just miss being in the lowest five. In this race the lowest is 9 but there are 3 with a 10 silly to just ignore them because of one finishing positition.
Oasis Knight
Clowance
Balkan Knight
Of these Clowance looks to have the strongest form, That was on a stiff track but he has shown hie can handle Newbury but against weaker competition than this.
Two of the three probables have been dealt with in the ratings so the leaves Buxted. His form so far is all A/W and I can't really see any reason to think he will handle this class of race.
If I back in this race the bet would be Polly's Mark to place.
Be Lucky
This was how I evaluated Pre race on the same Thread
Quote Chesham
Mtoto
The thing that would bother me about Polly's Mark is that she has only won 3 races of which two were for Fillies only. The only race that she won against mixed opposition saw Chiberta King in 2nd place who had previously only won a Class 97 handicap, so Winning Form Looks suspect against the class of horses that are racing today.
LTO Polly's Mark was second in a Class 255, again Fillies and Mares only race, which saw a 20/1 previous maiden winner take the race, so to me the form looks suspect for Polly's Mark to step up in class today against mixed opposition. Of course I am only looking at the race from her chance of winning and you have suggested a place bet at best if you did bet.
Purple Moon will need a decent pace to be seen at his best over 12f and it will be a difficult task as the pace, what little pace there is, will be on the other side, where Akmal looks to be the pace lead.
The unexposed horse in the race who is likely to improve at 4 is Harbinger, 5th on Ability Ratings which is good for a horse so lightly raced, who first ran in a 8f maiden over 8f (Too Short as he held a St Leger Entry) Then put over 10f at Chester and won as expected and was a good performance. Did hold a Derby entry but a torn muscle put paid to that ambition. Was not seen out again until July when he won going up in class and won as planned. Next race something was drastically wrong and is best forgotten. Finally last race of 2009 he was not put into the race to win and did well on very unsuitable ground.
Whatever the outcome of todays race, Harbinger will be an interesting prospect this year if he keeps sound and Sir Michael Stoute will have a plan mapped out for this one during 2010
Note Harbinger did not even feature in your evaluation
Harbinger not only won that race at 11/2 2nd fav, but was unbeaten afterwards culminating in winning KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (GROUP 1)
Good Luck
Chehsam
mtoto
Gelding
Note Harbinger did not even feature in your evaluation
Chesham,
Think you answered that point when you did your critique on Harbinger. The unexposed horse who is likely to improve Next race something was drastically wrong and is best forgotten. Finally last race of 2009 he was not put into the race to win and did well on very unsuitable ground.
As an unexposed horse with two races to forget he was very unlikely to show. Although I have now found a method of bringing unexposed horses into the working. Even now I don't think Harbinger would rate without a fair bit of guess work.
As I pointed out I wasn't very happy with Polly's mark and think the exercise was more about trying to show how I work(ed). Interesting you decided to put up that post as there are many others to choose from, I think but am not sure you were a member of the forum were I posted this.
Mtoto
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Re: VDW Splinter Group
3:10 Sand
Lough Derg 1
Beshabar 2 ** Bet win and place
Alderluckn 3
3:25 Don
Kalahari King 1
Pepsyrock 2 * bet place
Free World 3
3:40 San
Razor Royale 1
According to John 2
4:0 Don
Gidam Gidam1* bet place
Alderburn 2
4:15 San
Consigliere 1
Russian Flag 2
Bold most likely to make a profit
Be Lucky
I think the post you used was in reply to someone asking how I worked and why didn't I explain the thinking,
Be Lucky
Chesham,
Think you answered that point when you did your critique on Harbinger. The unexposed horse who is likely to improve Next race something was drastically wrong and is best forgotten. Finally last race of 2009 he was not put into the race to win and did well on very unsuitable ground.
As an unexposed horse with two races to forget he was very unlikely to show. Although I have now found a method of bringing unexposed horses into the working. Even now I don't think Harbinger would rate without a fair bit of guess work.
As I pointed out I wasn't very happy with Polly's mark and think the exercise was more about trying to show how I work(ed). Interesting you decided to put up that post as there are many others to choose from, I think but am not sure you were a member of the forum were I posted this.
Mtoto
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Re: VDW Splinter Group
3:10 Sand
Lough Derg 1
Beshabar 2 ** Bet win and place
Alderluckn 3
3:25 Don
Kalahari King 1
Pepsyrock 2 * bet place
Free World 3
3:40 San
Razor Royale 1
According to John 2
4:0 Don
Gidam Gidam1* bet place
Alderburn 2
4:15 San
Consigliere 1
Russian Flag 2
Bold most likely to make a profit
Be Lucky
I think the post you used was in reply to someone asking how I worked and why didn't I explain the thinking,
Be Lucky
hedgehog
Dam
Hello all,
Some very good posts and lots to think about.
Arkroyal, I've only checked the races for this month that I've looked at so a small sample but of them only one winner failed my rules
Mick and Mtoto, I'm sorry I'm not trying to curry favour with Chesham but I have to agree with him that sp's and forecasts are part of the vde method, at least it is for me. My primary filter is based on the betting forecast with another factor added to catch the long priced horses. Today I looked at the 4.15 ripon and had it between st moritz, maven, triple eight and spirit of rio. Only m and sor were form horses. I didn't like the commentsfor m and was left with sor which thankful I didn't bet. The winner m was not in the forecast but was only considered because it had the other factor. The primary filter has caught the winner 71/75 and I extended the forecast because I was getting stuffed by highly consistent horses which is covered in vdw first few letters. I think both of yo are missing a trick by ignoring sps and forecasts.
Chesham, thanks for saying I just needed a few tweaks and again you have given me food for thought. Thanks
Some very good posts and lots to think about.
Arkroyal, I've only checked the races for this month that I've looked at so a small sample but of them only one winner failed my rules
Mick and Mtoto, I'm sorry I'm not trying to curry favour with Chesham but I have to agree with him that sp's and forecasts are part of the vde method, at least it is for me. My primary filter is based on the betting forecast with another factor added to catch the long priced horses. Today I looked at the 4.15 ripon and had it between st moritz, maven, triple eight and spirit of rio. Only m and sor were form horses. I didn't like the commentsfor m and was left with sor which thankful I didn't bet. The winner m was not in the forecast but was only considered because it had the other factor. The primary filter has caught the winner 71/75 and I extended the forecast because I was getting stuffed by highly consistent horses which is covered in vdw first few letters. I think both of yo are missing a trick by ignoring sps and forecasts.
Chesham, thanks for saying I just needed a few tweaks and again you have given me food for thought. Thanks
mick
Sire
Hi hedgehog i cannot speak for others but i would be very disappointed if i felt i was missing any trick which might increase my profitability and one way to help ensure this is not to ignore anything.I do not use VDW methods but am aware and maintain an open mind.hedgehog said:
RE The bfc and sps i do not ignore these but rather perhaps interpret the information in a different or other ways.
arkle55
Sire
Mtoto hi. Tue Aug 27 2013 11.36 am, you wrote Hedgehog we have known each other through forums for some time now and i think you know i would never put you wrong on purpose. Why?
I think this is a very strange opening sentance and i sence you have some kind of game plan in mind.
Now i may have missed something but as far as i can see you have been a member here for some time now and i can see your last post regarding VDW was in reply to Bobba. Chesham as you will be aware is a new member here and like clockwork and as on other forums he is willing to help / advise for all to see(by the way you have also helped over the years) your next reply is the one above.
I do not no why, but in short it appears to me anyway that it seems you would prefer it if Chesham was not here for some reason.
Arkle
I think this is a very strange opening sentance and i sence you have some kind of game plan in mind.
Now i may have missed something but as far as i can see you have been a member here for some time now and i can see your last post regarding VDW was in reply to Bobba. Chesham as you will be aware is a new member here and like clockwork and as on other forums he is willing to help / advise for all to see(by the way you have also helped over the years) your next reply is the one above.
I do not no why, but in short it appears to me anyway that it seems you would prefer it if Chesham was not here for some reason.
Arkle
Chesham
Sire
Hi Arkle
I am nopt usually paranoid but you may be on to something, I have just read a Post by Mtoto in reply to VDW Waffle Thread by Mick Quote Mtoto And the weighing of horses why? to tell if their fit? Why would a trainer run an unfit horse in a good/ valuable race it stands a chance of winning.
As far as I am aware I am the only one to have mentioned about Weighing Race Horses on this Forum "What would also be of help from the BHA was if they used weighing equipment and publish the actual body weight of the horse before he runs. Most horses have an ideal body weight that indicates they are at their physical peak. Most trainers boast in their on line stable information that they weigh their horses. You often see the trainer say that their horse lost x kilo's after a hard race and that they had now put the weight back on. so strange that Mtoto makes a negative reference in a later post.
Mtoto says Why would a trainer run an unfit horse in a good/ valuable race Perhaps Mtoto should consider that Roushayd was put in the Northern Dancer Race which was a bigger prize than The ONC, yet the bigger prize was not the aim of the Trainer, but the lesser prize.
if I said black was Black, Mtoto would say it is white LOL
Good Luck
Chesham
I am nopt usually paranoid but you may be on to something, I have just read a Post by Mtoto in reply to VDW Waffle Thread by Mick Quote Mtoto And the weighing of horses why? to tell if their fit? Why would a trainer run an unfit horse in a good/ valuable race it stands a chance of winning.
As far as I am aware I am the only one to have mentioned about Weighing Race Horses on this Forum "What would also be of help from the BHA was if they used weighing equipment and publish the actual body weight of the horse before he runs. Most horses have an ideal body weight that indicates they are at their physical peak. Most trainers boast in their on line stable information that they weigh their horses. You often see the trainer say that their horse lost x kilo's after a hard race and that they had now put the weight back on. so strange that Mtoto makes a negative reference in a later post.
Mtoto says Why would a trainer run an unfit horse in a good/ valuable race Perhaps Mtoto should consider that Roushayd was put in the Northern Dancer Race which was a bigger prize than The ONC, yet the bigger prize was not the aim of the Trainer, but the lesser prize.
if I said black was Black, Mtoto would say it is white LOL
Good Luck
Chesham