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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Hi Hedgehog/Stubble,

Please do not take this the wrong way as I may be wrong myself but after my research I do not feel that beating or being beaten by a higher ability rated horse is important.

I thought this myself, but I also read a post from Lee saying this was not important.

I feel the main importance is what a horse is doing with ITS ability rating.

I stand to be corrected.

I know u do well, and I am not saying otherwise just what I think.
Take care mate.
Paul.
 
Quote Lee


Probability is odds and as we all know, when looking at the form of a past race the best horse (the winner) in the race isn't always favourite. This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form. What did the winner do in each of its last 3 races? Was it involved from the distance? Who was it involved against? This will help evaluate the strength of the race its just won. VDW said to go back as far as you like, and that the exercise would be useful.

Good Luck

Chehsam
 
Hi Chesham!

What I meant from my post was that other considerations need to be accounted for, V.D.W said he used two methods of rating.

Quote Lee " The Ability rating cannot be used as a Colatteral rating - I.e. horse A beat a higher rated horse than horse B last time out, so horse A must now rate higher?
This is nonsense like all other collateral form ratings"

I understand that finishing close up to a higher rated horse is good for the horse in question if the higher ability rated horse is a form horse, just because the horse won does not make it a form horse.

I am still learning, and know very little compared to you, happy to have you on the forum!
 
Hi Paul

Break Lee's Quote down

Probability is odds and as we all know Is the form of a race going to be reliable for the future if a 20/1 outsider is first and a 50/1 2nd.

Quote Lee This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form.

Quote Lee. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form. What did the winner do in each of its last 3 races?

Slightly expanded as Lee is now looking at strength of Form for a particular Race

Lets look at a Selection that Lee gave Captain Gerrard

LTO Race was won by LTO Fleeting Spirit (Fav) Abilty Rating157 (VDW said look for a winner in a race ) so this is the winner we are to look at as it was the horse who won the last race that Captain Gerrard competed in

Three Race Profile Fleeting Spirit

(LTO) Fleeting Spririt had finished 2nd in a Grp 2 Class 503, Winner was Nahoodh (15/2)TS achived 96 & RPR 105
Fleeting Spririt RPR 101 & TS 92 was 11/4 Finished 3rd but was promoted to 2nd when Visit 6/4 fav was disqualified (Visit LTO had won a Grp 3 (RPR 107) Fav 100/30 fav

2nd LTO Fleeting Spririt won a Grp 3 8/1 RPR 110 & TS 106 The 2nd Horse was Kingsgate Native who Kingsgate Native won a Grp 1 Class 1361(Ratings award for this Race RPR 115 & TS 102 (Note that Captain Gerrard was also in this race and finished 3rd)

3rd Lto Fleeting Sprit first time on a racecourse won a Maiden Class 29 4/1

Captain Gerrard lines up 21/09/ 2007, after meeting Fleeting Sprirt and CG is now the Highest Ability horse in the race and Dropped in class and has the strongest form in the race

It is worth noting that the dam of CG had also produced Saturn won two races as a 2 Y-O and Highest RPR 108 and Top Speed 100


Good Luck

Chehsam
 
Thanks Chesham, that has also given me food for thought. I'm glad you joined this forum and long may you post.

Looked at one race today the 2.30 Chester and have it between Able Master, Gramercy, Shebebi and Verse of Love. I don't like the current going for am and s and I don't like the comments for g and s which leaves vol. 2 races back vol won and had its or raised as a result. Lto vol was raised markedly in class and ran down the field and it's or was dropped. I think it's lto race can be forgiven but in that it was beaten by a 158ar horse which is better than anything in this race bar s and even though s is the sole 3yo I don't think it is right today. I don't fear s today but I do fear am, won 3 races back and has been 2nd twice since each time with excuses, however it seems to need gf and the going is g so I don't think conditions are spot on for am. Also vol is an 88ar horse and am a 78ar horse so if it comes to a battle vol should win. Vol is a bit of a Chester specialist preferring sharp tracks and if I was the jockey id gun it out of the stalls to take the rail. Am is drawn 12 which will not aid its cause.

G js a galloping horse so will not enjoy the sharpness of Chester.

I think vols trainer is telling us today he is out to win this race and bar something coming out of the woodwork I think it should. I hav taken the 11s and 14.78 available on billy hill and betfair

Good luck if you play today.
 
Nice post Hedgehog!
I have backed Intringent/Khuabala today at chester,

Intringent 19.50 on Betfair which I felt was way too high, good run lto at chester, poorly drawn and held up with the winner and 2nd both up with the pace, up to listed level but I do not feel yhe race is too strong.
Balding has very good record at the course and I feel that he has booked Franny Norton for a reason! ( he is one of top jockeys at the course)

Khuabala was taken at 6.9, he has been performing very well in decent races and should go very well!

Good luck today mate!
 
Well that didn't go a expected. Was I wrong but did vol get an almighty whack leaving the stalls by another horse. I doubt that helped but it was at the back most of the way so not a going day

Still it was well beaten
 
VDW "Weight is a great leveller, but my personal view is that there is a distinction between dead and live weight. Although I do not wish to press the issue, I feel excess lead in the saddle is more of a brake than an heavier Jockey."

LTO The Assistant Trainer had this to say about Continuum. He is a big baby and he had a lot of lead in the saddle which nearly told in the end. He will improve again for that. I am not sure how good those he beat were but he can only win -



Tom Queally Rides off 8st-7 Lbs so in that time out race Contiuum carried up to 21 lbs lead in the saddle. Worth thinking about when assessing how good a past performance is.

Posted Pre Race (Flatstats Pay Subscribers Forum)


one who interests me today is a relative of Retirment Plan who runs at Salisbury in the 2.20, Continuum


The Dam of Continuum is also the Grand Dam of Retirement Plan and it is notable that Tom Queally has been sent to ride Continuum.

LTO Continuum won a 3 y o+ Maiden giving 17 lbs to the other runners who were 3-y-o's and as the Assistant Trainer mentioned after the win that it was a lot of dead weight in the saddle, so a good performance.

Sir Henry had previous won that same maiden race as Contiuum won with 3 -y- o's, Solar sky and Midsummer Sun. both who were at a better class than todays Handicap competition, so Contiuum should be a better class to these.

Continuum Win Bet

With Lightly raced horses who are moving on from a maiden win it is useful to have a look at what type of horse has won the maiden race in past years .

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Chesham!

Sorry to sound thick but how do you work out the lead in the saddle?

Today one reason I went for Intrangsigent was because he had been stepped up to listed and carried 7lb less, but I felt this was not a strong race for the official level.

I backed come on blue chips yesterday at Doncaster as he had performed well LTO and carried 13lb less weight, 2nd at 28/1.

I took 19.50 on Intrangsigent and 2nd again!

Nice pick by the way, enjoy reading your posts!
 
Is it a case of finding the lowest riding weight that the jockey has had and calculating the difference from the weight carried on the day?

continuum 10 stone- T.Q lowest weight =21lbs
 
formtheory said:
Is it a case of finding the lowest riding weight that the jockey has had and calculating the difference from the weight carried on the day?

continuum 10 stone- T.Q lowest weight =21lbs
Click to expand...

Yes, the Racing Post has the lowest weight that the Jockey has been able to do in the last 12 months and this gives a rough estimate as to how much weight is in the saddle.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hello all,

I'm not betting today as I'm trying something new by incorporating weight change.

Looked at the 4.10 Newmarket and have it between highland colori, gabriel's lad, shamdarley and common touch but gl is unsuited by the going which leaves 3. Hc and ct are both being dropped in class from tough races and I think the trainer is telling us he is trying to win. S is stepping up in class but is dropping 11lbs in weight. The book of the 3 would be 11/10.

If forced to pick one it would be hc as it was beaten by a 305ar horse lto which is better than anything in this race
 
Hello all,

It is definitely the determining of suitable going that gets me. I use the going a horse has won on but I think that is not wide enough I think I should consider wins and seconds. Today gl had wins on soft and standard but had 2 recent seconds on gf.

Can I ask please is this sensible?
 
hedgehog said:
Hello all,

It is definitely the determining of suitable going that gets me. I use the going a horse has won on but I think that is not wide enough I think I should consider wins and seconds. Today gl had wins on soft and standard but had 2 recent seconds on gf.

Can I ask please is this sensible?
Click to expand...

Hi Hedgehog

The distance was an unknown with GL too, although had placed on the going 3/4

Good Luck

Chesham
 
hedgehog said:
Hello all,

It is definitely the determining of suitable going that gets me. I use the going a horse has won on but I think that is not wide enough I think I should consider wins and seconds. Today gl had wins on soft and standard but had 2 recent seconds on gf.

Can I ask please is this sensible?
Click to expand...

Sometimes ratings can be useful in this respect.A horse may have won a very poor race on soft yet not like the ground.Its best ratings may come when beaten but on fast ground.It's seldom easy to make the call mate,all any of us can do is attempt to get things right on balance.
 
Hello all,

Thanks Chesham and Mick,

Chesham, I tend to see distance as a secondary factor. I see going as an eliminating factor.

Mick, I don't use speed or handicap ratings at all. I just use what is available on the RP site after 9am

I'm probably wrong on both counts

h
 
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