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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

#1
Hello all,

The form has settled down, the going is consistent and there are few debutantes so all the making of a lucky patch.

Today I looked at the 3.50 ascot and have it between Novelist, Very Nice Name, Hillstar and Trading Leather but the current going is against N and VNN which leaves H and TL. Both are 3yos both won lto. H beat a higher ar horse and TL won a 3yo g1. I can't split them so have bet both.

I should know better but the forecast rain will stuff my selections. So here's hoping th weather men are wrong and the storms come after 4

H
 
#2
Hi Hedghog/Stubble,

I also have the same two, but have decided on Hillstar due to the trainer and course.
Favourite obviously has very strong claims, her last race would put her as a non form horse in my opinion, although she usually needs a run.

Hillstar/Trading Leather both showed much improved form going up in distance, they will surely go close!

Like Tarkhiki today dropping back to the mile.
 
#7
Hi Hedgehog,
I got it down to those to but preferred Hillstar, I would have backed both if I could not choose between them.

Novelist won well, was the ground conditions that put me off him, more fool me!
 
#10
"The form has settled down, the going is consistent and there are few debutantes so all the making of a lucky patch."
If you say so mate,as for me,my filthy value bets have gone sideways,and 4 out of 5 of my hard to come by o/o lays have won in the past couple of weeks,mind you,if the horses feel like I do in this heat,no wonder things are going wonky... :eek: :drinks:
 
#11
Hello Hayzee,

I know that feeling. I've had losing sequences of 14 and 11 and blown my bank each time. Now I try not to chase my losses, not be greedy and turn my winnings into something real

That said I over bet today as Saturday is a bsd day for me generally

H
 
#12
the upside is that I may have found another filter,if it's hot,have a beer instead :) mind you,we're due a deep depression heading from the south,that usually means my sis in law is on the way ...and if I get really stuck,I can always ask my bro in law,he knows everything :eek: :) :) :drinks:
 
#13
Hello all,

I'm happier about the weather today for my selection so hopefully the deep depression will have little effect.

Looked at the 3.05 ascot today and have it between Genzy, Saytara, Bishop Roko and Scatter Dice. I don't like the going or comments for g and br and sd was beaten lto by a lower ar horse with no excuses. That leaves s beat a maiden lto which doesn't excite but nto it broke its duck and went on to win a good prize, prior to that s was beaten by a tartar.

Ss trainer seems to be getting his horses ready fto and I think he has chosen well with this race as it is a lot easier than lto and there is even a small class drop. I have bet s with billy hill and betfair

Good luck if you play today

H
 
#15
Hi hedgehog

At least the winner has been in your 4 probables, and you have done well over on the other site recently. Would you have picked the winner without taking the going into consideration ?
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
#16
Was there anything to suggest that the winnner wouldn't go on Good going?
You had the first 2 in your probables so you are obviously on the right tracks :clap:
 
#17
Chilled and Arkroyal,

The going went to gf so I wouldnt have bet any of my probables had I known. I like to see a win on the going as I'm crap at extrapolating


I've looked at the 4.30 Ayr for tomorrow as I'll be busy. I have all but FB and LCDO as probables but all but suits me and steer by the stars are out by the going. Sbts has lousy comments which leaves sm which has won CD and going. Lto SM was beaten by sennockian star which was a lower ar horse but SM has excuses. I've bet sm on billy hill and betfair

H
 
#18
Hi Hedghog!

I also really liked the chances of suits me tomorrow, Sennockian star was of lower class via the ability rating but his recent form is solid, Suits me also gave 17lbs in physical weight and was fancied to be beaten by S.S.

Balducci showed improved form L.T.O but goes out on capabilities (all wins G/F as you mentioned)

Dubai Dynamos last run may have been contributed by the pace with the first 3 home all up there early, trainer also has only a 9% strike at the course, and jockey even less. This time there should be no lack of pace!

Invincible heroe, Sound advice, Le Chat D'or and Steer the Stars would need career best based on just there RPRS, they do not have the class, although alot of the class is going out of this.

Fort Belvedere is an interesting runner in my opinion but another who may be caught out by the pace scenario, he marked his card being stepped up in trip and class over tomorrow's course and distance, he was then stepped up sharply in class by both course and prize money but back in trip also.
Interesting back up in trip and down in class over the same C&D as he marked his card, same jockey booked also.
He has also finished 2nd over this trip on heavy ground at Longchamp, rates highly on ability ratings ( that class also came over 10f at Longchamp)

The pace ruins this race as a betting medium for me, with both Suits Me and Fort Belvedere being front runners,
Dubai Dynamo may end up lucky here.
 
#20
Hello all,

Looked at one race today, 3.15 Goodwood and have it between Sajjhaa, Hot Snap, Just the Judge and Sky Lantern but I don't like the comments for jtj which leaves 3. It is possible to bet all three for a 78% profit but looking at the three I am most impressed by s . S lto was beta by a lower ar horse but has excuses as military attack was a tartar and it was an all sex race. S today is dropping massively in class and ma lto had an 1030 ar which is better than anything in this race bar sl. SL lto was beaten by Elusive Kate which was a lower ar horse but sl had excuses. That said sl was taking on it's elders for the first time and dropping in class in a much easier race. I feel sl had the opportunity to win lto but failed, add to that both hs and sl have the trip to take on trust and I think s becomes much more appealing.

I have bet s on billy hill and betfair and have composite odds of 9/1

Good luck if you play today