• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Handicap Class Droppers

If you've ever wanted further proof that jockeys are just as bad judges of which is the best horse in a race, you just saw it with Ryan Moore picking the wrong horse again from his own stable for the umpteenth time this season and seasons before. If those closest to the horse can't get it right what chance punters?
 
Another close finish away from a very good day again. Still a fair day with 2/1 and 11/4 winners just about scraping a profit.
 
Only three handicap hurdles today after the abandonment of Aintree.

The Market Rasen HH has nothing on offer. A race to avoid.

Wexford 3:07 Perhaps has one or two too many with valid shouts. I'm going to exclude River Vale on a point of recent form and go with a book on the three I see as having the right profile. From top of the handicap down Club Manager, Albatala and Arctic Piper. The latter sneaks in as reserve and made noticeable improvement last time. No word on who rides it yet, but if it's a claimer taking even more weight off than all the better. I'm backing all three to make it a less risky bet.

Galway 2:50 Inthenickoftime and Castleheath are the two for me here. I suspect the former is the more likely to prevail but at the prices I'll back them both to win more or less the same. Shellrunforbriggs could be a danger if fit, but does have to defy a 10 lb rise in the handicap.
 
Market Rasen 2:41 Handicap Chase has an inconsistent form horse fav who hasn't won against the calibre of runners he takes on today. His three opponents are all dropping in class and have form in better races than Paper Mill has been running in. So it's a conflict in the numerical picture for me. Whilst I suspect the Tizzard or Schofield runners could be the ones, I couldn't rule the Hobbs horse out either. I couldn't put money on Paper Mill today under these circumstances. Fitness may very well count for a lot and he could win, but those 3 class droppers are not gong to sniff at a 15k prize having been found out in much higher class than that in the main. I'll watch.
 
Tufnel said:
VDW never put ORs forward as a way to measure a horse or race's class.
Click to expand...

Not directly but in "Spells it all out" he said "To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses' chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings, etc,"

Handicap ratings can only be used as a guide in confirming class (ability). It cannot be used as an indication of a horses' present form.
They are o.k. using them in Stakes races but not in Handicap races where all the horses are in effect running off the "same mark" due to the weight differences. This is why they couldn't be used in the Roushayd races.

He certainly used them as part of the process when appropriate, as with Canny Danny. "You will note that at Ascot Canny Danny was the class horse and had a pull of three pounds on handicap."

Canny Danny started the season in a Hcap Ch at Wetherby with a mark of 80.
He ran off the same mark in his next race, the Hennessey, where he finished 2nd beaten 4l and his mark was raised 3lb to 83.
But his next race, the SGB, was, like the Hennessey, an early closer. So Canny Danny was still running off his old mark of 80, despite his current mark being 83. Hence the 3lb pull on handicap.
 
Pitmatic Pitmatic

Looking though the VDW selections in "The Golden Years ..." I've reached the three he made at Cheltenham 1981, but although I have my Excel datasheets for the races I can't find the notes I made at the Newspaper Library. I think it very likely my data came from the Life, because mostly I only checked the Mail for their ratings, but I can't be sure.

You often post copies of the Life forecasts for VDW selection races though not as far as I can see using the search function for the three races. If you have details of any of the three races, I am hoping that the following data about positions in the betting forecasts will enable you to tell me whether they did indeed come from the Life:

17/03/81: Clayside, Foxbat, Prayukta, Royal Dipper and Tacroy

19/03/81: Broadsword, Fledge, Homeson, Kolne, Ra Tapu, Tie Anchor

19/03/81: Jack Of Trumps, Little Owl, Night Nurse, Royal Bond, Silver Buck

(these are in alphabetical not forecast order, and as all three were non-handicaps I presume two in the Broadsword race must have been co-5th in the forecast)

If they seem to be the Life forecasts, I'd be grateful if you could perhaps annotate the three lists showing the horses' respective positions in the forecast.
 
JennyK JennyK
The first 5 quotes in The Life forecasts...

17.03.81 9/4 Royal Dipper, 5/2 Clayside, 11/2 Prayukta, 10 Tacroy, Foxbat, 12 Will Boreen.

19.03.81 9/4 Broadsword, 12 Here's Why, Homeson, 14 Kolme, 16 Ra Tapu, The Very Thing, Tie Anchor, 20 Apple Wine, Mansky.

19.03.81 9/2 Silver Buck, 5 Little Owl, 6 Jack Of Trumps, 15/2 Night Nurse, 8 Royal Bond.

There seems to be a discrepancy in Broadsword's race.

Fledge was quoted as 6th in the betting forecast at 25/1 along with 5 other horses.

Also...just checked The Mail's forecasts and they don't seem to tally with those - I would have attached screen shots for you, but apparently there is a problem with attachments showing up on the forum at the moment.

If you would like them emailed to you, just message me with your email address.
 
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Garry said:
Not directly but in "Spells it all out" he said "To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses' chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings, etc,"

Handicap ratings can only be used as a guide in confirming class (ability). It cannot be used as an indication of a horses' present form.
They are o.k. using them in Stakes races but not in Handicap races where all the horses are in effect running off the "same mark" due to the weight differences. This is why they couldn't be used in the Roushayd races.

He certainly used them as part of the process when appropriate, as with Canny Danny. "You will note that at Ascot Canny Danny was the class horse and had a pull of three pounds on handicap."

Canny Danny started the season in a Hcap Ch at Wetherby with a mark of 80.
He ran off the same mark in his next race, the Hennessey, where he finished 2nd beaten 4l and his mark was raised 3lb to 83.
But his next race, the SGB, was, like the Hennessey, an early closer. So Canny Danny was still running off his old mark of 80, despite his current mark being 83. Hence the 3lb pull on handicap.
Click to expand...
Penalty carriers were also referenced presumably as well in such as Ascenscia, etc and Abathatc where the penalty was seen as a negative but it’s disappearance next time against the same horse as a positive.

But my point was as you say they are not a substitute for class. In non handicaps they can show horses as well treated when running against others with much lower ratings. Again a point he raised when he mentioned how often conditions races especially over jumps can result in small fields with badly treated rivals involved. Travado’s last Huntingdon win being a case in point.
 
Just saw the front page of the forum and noticed currently there were 14 members online, but 2,218 guests.

Is that correct?

It seems incredibly one sided to have considerably less than 1% of the viewership actually being members.
 
Just tried new system that i have well not been using but similar to what i do and tried it on saturday tough day to start it and sunday to started of with nice enough profit on saturday then with racing off yesterday went into irish racing something i dont even bet on not less big race and expected to fail badly but actually broke even yesterday which was nice to see as had no clue about the racing its self so keep going with it for a decent amount of days see how it holds up.
Not saying its some sort of missing link as was not intended as that but could be the missing link i have been looking for the theory is in general less risk better long term profit we will see.
 
Tufnel said:
Just saw the front page of the forum and noticed currently there were 14 members online, but 2,218 guests.

Is that correct?

It seems incredibly one sided to have considerably less than 1% of the viewership actually being members.
Click to expand...
I thinks it’s the number of guests who have visited, just looked and 10 guests on line.

If everyone posted on the Inner Sanctum they would not have anything to read and those that have joined might not hang around and just lurk without posting .

I suspect many who view as guest have done a search for VDW and this forum will probably pop up Top in the search
 
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Tufnel Tufnel

There may be another, partial, explanation, if any other members are like me; I can't type accurately on my mobile phone. So I quite often visit the site when I am out but don't log in to reply until I get back to my pc and more to the point, a proper keyboard.
 
Just looked at the main race at Redcar and Naepoint leaps out as the class/form horse dropping in class after showing improvement last time. The horse has the capability in respect of course, distance, going and weight and is well handicapped still.
If you look at the line up and for the last race it was different class to most of these today.

Unfortunately it's chance appears just as obvious to the markets but still looks a good bet to me.
 
Hereford 2:52 Lucy On The Wire effectively dropping in class here. Fit from the flat and Owen yard continue to do well.

Herefor 4:00 Bits Ballou.
 
Well a good day but disappointing Bits Ballou couldn't do better given the fav was pulled up. The winner of the race another at the top of the weights and one of those horses with form in much better races bouncing back to form. Almost exactly a year ago today won a 13k Chase.

2 out of 3 and a small wager on a 4th selection that lost.
 
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