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Handicap Class Droppers

HH races today at Bangor and Newcastle.

Bangor 1:46 Too many question marks here. Lowest weighted horse clearly ran below his capabilities LTO but there are others in here who could also bounce back. To select one of these or even two or three smacks of having a bet purely because I've looked at the race.

Newcastle 2:01 Again nothing fits the bill.

Bangor 2:46 I'm backing Queen Maeve here who is nicely weighted dropping in class from a first handicap effort win in a much better race at Sandown. I'd be very surprised if the step up in trip doesn't help her too. But there is a live danger in Betty's Daisy who has had the wind op since below par in a better race also last run last season. She does have to give a lot of weight to Queen Maeve though, but at the prices I can add her in for a dutch.

Newcastle 3:01 Jentobello is dropping in class and trip. He's been handicapped for over a year now but never actually been raced in one. Even so the mark has gone from 106 to 113 at one point and now down to 110. Easily beat respectable opposition in a novice LTO and often make the running. He does have 11-10 today even though from a mark of 110 in a 0-120. I'm going to take the bet with this one because it looks an interesting move trip wise/style of running for his first venture into handicaps. Of course connections have no choice really to run in handicaps because he'll be carrying penalties in novice races. I'll take the chance they have found a winnable race from 110 and they are not just trying to move the mark down with a wrong trip/higher weight scenario.
 
And that lowest weighted horse who was a well beaten fav LTO in a race that should have been no problem on form does collect the 1:46 at Bangor. It didn't fit in with the HH method for a lightweight, but looking at the last race where he was fav compared to today's showed it would be no surprise if the rest had done it's job and the horse came back to form. Ah well. What's the odd missed 15/2 winner? 😢
 
At Bangor 3:16 I'm making a 3 horse book in this Novice Handicap Chase with form horses Laughing John, Kel Du Large and Just Golden. All 3 dropping in class switched to chases before becoming too exposed over hurdles.

Catterick 2:40 Manila Scouse is class/form and has the capability to win under these conditions. Homestrait is technically 3rd on class/form but improved last time in higher class. I'm dutching the pair.
 
Well the 2:40 didn't go to plan. Manila Scouse stayed on and couldn't close quick enough to trouble the winner in 2nd and Homestrait looked like the jockey had given up in the straight before suddenly finding her closing so fast she would have won with another 100 yards to go.

Bit miffed on leaving Marching Mac out though at the prices. Had been dropped after fair efforts in better races to win a slightly higher class race last time out and was an 85 horse in an 80 race. Stupid to leave an in form LTO winner being dropped slightly in class out really.
 
Catterick 4:10 I make Aequitas the class/form horse dropping class. Last 2 runs in much better class than today's and she ran well particularly in the last race at Goodwood. I shall be having a wager given the price.

So far today has been pretty poor results. Jentobello went off ridiculously short and in hindsight 11-10 even in this class was a question mark. Only winning a small field race last time too.

Hopefully things take a turn for the better in my next 2 bets.
 
Hopefully Laughing John and James Bowen are ok but how gutting was that to watch. Laughing John home and hosed and seemed to overjump and fall over at the last. And then the agony of watching Skelton arrive too late on Just Golden by about half a length to take up the spoils.

Instead one of the 3 most consistent wins at 11/1. But a lucky winner.

I'm half expecting Aequitas to get stuck in the stalls or get beaten in a photo.
 
Aequitas moved up to 3rd in the last few furlongs then fell in a hole. I guess there's a reason no horse from either of her 2 wins has come out and troubled the judge.

Winner was 2nd on last time out class/form.
 
Tufnel said:
Just noticed North Of Richmond had won fresh on 29th October 2024, 29th October 2025 and now 27th October 2026.
Click to expand...

Not being facetious here but the trick is to notice these things in advance.
I don't know what your time frame is, compared to other matters in life, but probably best to start two days before, going through the cards to notice these things.

Though I doubt many would have noticed North Of Richmond today.
 
Just so I'm not accused of after timing out of my backside.

On Thursday in the Dai Walters Handicap Chase where Mr Walters also has a runner.
Just Over Land won on his seasonal debut last season and was second the year before.
Connections have booked Harvey Barfort-Saunt who has won twice on the horse.
Harvey is a top ptp rider and well worth his 7lbs. He was a Pony Racing Champion in 2018 at 11 years of age.
 
Nottingham 3:16 Gaspacho is dropped in class having shown better form upped to 1m 6f and in a 51k handicap at York where she was just 6/1 when 3rd. Dropped in class today she gets 12 lbs from Maxident rather than just 6 lbs with a decent WFA allowance. Fallon unable to ride last time but on board today. Maxident ran well last time when runner up to a horse he had previously beaten on better terms and has 10-3 today following what was quite a tough race last time over further. But there was no such class dropper in that race last time like Gaspacho who is a lightly raced 3yo and improving. I'm backing the Haggas filly to come out on top.
 
Nottingham 2:16 Not a class dropper but in an in form horse who loves the ground and this time of year in Centigrade. Improved form last time and this race was won by another improving handicapper last season who beat Ebts Guard who has another go this year and would seem the most likely danger. At the prices I'll stick with the win bet on the Beckett 4 yo.
 

Final Verdict & Tissue Odds​

  • Primary Win Selection: Bella Civena — Well-in at +6 vs OR with a competitive 22% TPR share, perfectly suited to handle a tactical race.
    Unknown

  • Danger / Value Alternative: Porter In The Park — Boasts the highest operating level (Oper 118) in the entire field, making her a major threat if translating her peak figures to today's Good ground at Huntingdon.
    Unknown
 
Bella Civena was really useless there. Never ever looked like getting involved. Top weight disappointment last time wins this time. How often do we see that scenario?
 
I do have a genuine question Tufnel Tufnel regarding class droppers.



You will see from the pic that Gaspacho is dropping from a Class 2 race to a Class 4 today and the Median OR drop from LTO is 7lbs
Maxident on the other hand is dropping from Class 3 to Class 4 today and the Median OR Drop from LTO is 9lbs

Which horse would you consider as the true class dropper?

Sul :handgestures-thumbup:
 
See this is why ORs are a bunch of horse dung as a guide to class. Seraphic was one of two LTO winners in the field. Both won 4k race handicaps. Zafaan had won from a higher mark and easily whilst Seraphic had won from a 10 lb lower mark and not so easily. They had both been beaten off lesser marks than today previously.

But the lower weighted LTO winner won and If I'd stuck to my first impression of the race on a class and form basis rather than looking at the ORs and all that I would have made a better decision.

The whole point of the handicap hurdle method is that it is different to other methods. Trying to turn it into something else only creates frustration.
 
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