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Handicap Class Droppers

Chesham said:
I suppose that the lay off for Over a year may have been too much this time last time out win was after an even longer break. The drift in the Betting market was probably the indicator that today was not gong to be her day.
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I looked at Paddockwood. Ben Pauling couldn't get it to reproduce it's French form but a move to Dan and it's a different horse. Is he really that much a better trainer than even Pauling?
 
Sullybomb said:
I do have a genuine question Tufnel Tufnel regarding class droppers.



You will see from the pic that Gaspacho is dropping from a Class 2 race to a Class 4 today and the Median OR drop from LTO is 7lbs
Maxident on the other hand is dropping from Class 3 to Class 4 today and the Median OR Drop from LTO is 9lbs

Which horse would you consider as the true class dropper?

Sul :handgestures-thumbup:
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Well I've already said. The race at York was the better race for my money and by way of class, both as a race and by the class of the opposition from their previous races.

ORs of the first 3 home more or less the same though.
 
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Sullybomb said:
I do have a genuine question Tufnel Tufnel regarding class droppers.



You will see from the pic that Gaspacho is dropping from a Class 2 race to a Class 4 today and the Median OR drop from LTO is 7lbs
Maxident on the other hand is dropping from Class 3 to Class 4 today and the Median OR Drop from LTO is 9lbs

Which horse would you consider as the true class dropper?

Sul :handgestures-thumbup:
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My old mate Stav, he wrote Seconds Into Winners, used to define class by adding the difference from 10-0 onto the OR of the highest rated horse in the race. If an apprentice rode that horse, then go down the handicap to find the first non claiming jockey.
In 3yo+ races, always take the Class number from 4yos and upwards.

The question you ask Gaspacho or Maxident.

Gaspacho came from an all 3yo race. The highest rated horse was 96 plus add the 5 from the 5lbs below 10-0 gives the race a class figure of 101.

Maxident came from a 4yo+ handicap where the top weight was Wise Eagle who was rated 95 and carried 10-2, so 2lbs to come off giving a class rating of 93.
 
mlmrob said:
My old mate Stav, he wrote Seconds Into Winners, used to define class by adding the difference from 10-0 onto the OR of the highest rated horse in the race. If an apprentice rode that horse, then go down the handicap to find the first non claiming jockey.
In 3yo+ races, always take the Class number from 4yos and upwards.

The question you ask Gaspacho or Maxident.

Gaspacho came from an all 3yo race. The highest rated horse was 96 plus add the 5 from the 5lbs below 10-0 gives the race a class figure of 101.

Maxident came from a 4yo+ handicap where the top weight was Wise Eagle who was rated 95 and carried 10-2, so 2lbs to come off giving a class rating of 93.
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The other point re the WFA was the fact Gaspacho's last race featured horses who'd run well in other 3yo handicaps and also had unexposed 3 year olds in there too, including the winner Harper Violet.

Maxident is fairly well exposed. He was on worse terms LTO with a horse he had beaten before. Which says either that horse had improved a lot or more likely Maxident had reached his limit for the time being.
 
Kempton 8:15 I see 3 class droppers here, not big drops by any means but they are all form horses and are more than capable of winning a handicap at this level so at the prices I'm backing them in a book. Split Elevens, Generous Rascal and Strong Voice.
 
One thing I'm noticing when looking at past races and viewing the overview of how the race looked beforehand from a Cons, Erin, AR and last 3 runs form/class/dist perspective is how often the winner of those races showed up well in just the basic Cons/Erin & LTO form factors.

Often the winner from that set simply was the only LTO winner or 2nd and/or had the best class rating of those that filled those places LTO.

Also, others who showed up in the 3 for Cons and/or Erin didn't seem to finish in the money if they were outside of the first 6 in the betting. Which of course completely fits in with the stats we all know on such horses.

The 3:36 Handicap Chase at Huntingdon had just 2 horses in the field to have won a race in their last 2 outings. The winner Nazare and Cuban Court who was 3rd. The shorter priced stablemate of the winner Scavenger's Reign had won a race 3 starts back but last time out was down the field in a 58k race. One of only 2 horses today dropping in class.
 
Ffos Las 2:30 I see It's Easy as having run to form in the better race last time out compared to Ugo Bingo. Diamond White who beat It's Easy certainly has better form in my view and is rated much higher than UB on ORs too. So I'm going with It's Easy as the bet.

Ffos Las 3:00 Same trainer/jockey combo have Boyle's Hill here as top weight and this horse is definitely down in class of race and opposition today at a course he's won at and on going he is 2 from 3 on. It's a shame the price is getting shorter, but I think it fits the bill on the HH method. I'll be having a bet on this.

Stratford 2:50 has too many questions and few answers for my liking.
 
The Ffos Las 2:30 was a right mess up really. I put far too much faith in the assumption Ugo Bingo might not go on the ground. Well he certainly did.
 
An Ian Williams special there at Bath. Dropped in class last time in a rubbish race at Yarmouth and down the field and comes out and wins this today comfortably.
 
Adam Wedge went to the stands side and then drifts away again. Did he not see where the winners are coming from on the course?

I'm packing it in for the day. You know it's not your day when you back 2 horses ridden by the same jockey and trained by the same trainer who won another earlier but mess up for the 2 you've had money on.
 
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