Eric Bowers narrowing the field
- Thread starter Olwenba
- Start date
Nothing else for today so 2/4 today, 33/47 overall 70%. Mixed bag really. I quick check over the past results shows alot of these shortlists are made up of class 5/6 races. I know the method looks at the better class runners via the OR but are they just the best of a bad bunch and expect the unexpected results due to the the lack of consistency and being rated so lowly? I wish I had more samples on the higher class races to look at, are more winners found in the shortlist (better class horses run best more consistently?) and does the market in these higher class races get the results correct more often? Should we expect to see less surprising results in these races. Food for thought anyway.
Thanks! That would be from a much bigger sample size too. Still 70% S/R interesting findings and something to consider going forward!
Here's what i have so far, more to follow if time permits...
| time | track | horse | runners | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Fortunate Fred (FR) | 13 | 8 | 8 |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Embolden (IRE) | 13 | 4.5 | 15 |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Herakles Westwood (FR) | 13 | 12 | 25 |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Leading The Way (IRE) | 13 | 8 | 25 |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Clinton Lane | 13 | 16 | 26 |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Hi Riko (FR) | 13 | 4 | 26.5 |
13:10:00 | Lingfield | Wheres Tom | 13 | 8 | 27.5 |
| time | track | horse | runners | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
13:15:00 | Thurles | Dundaniel (IRE) | 9 | 2.75 | 4.75 |
13:15:00 | Thurles | Ardera Ru (IRE) | 9 | 3 | 8 |
13:15:00 | Thurles | Slige Dala (IRE) | 9 | 8 | 8 |
13:15:00 | Thurles | Dorans River (IRE) | 9 | 4.5 | 15 |
| time | track | horse | runners | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
13:25:00 | Taunton | Lady Kk (IRE) | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
13:25:00 | Taunton | Hardy Boy (FR) | 8 | 6 | 13 |
13:25:00 | Taunton | Walkinthewoods (IRE) | 8 | 2.75 | 15.25 |
13:25:00 | Taunton | Dream In The Park (IRE) | 8 | 8 | 22.5 |
| time | track | horse | runners | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
15:10:00 | Taunton | Atreides (IRE) | 11 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
15:10:00 | Taunton | I Love You Sivola (FR) | 11 | 14 | 14 |
15:10:00 | Taunton | Caitlins Court (IRE) | 11 | 4.5 | 15.5 |
15:10:00 | Taunton | Imperial Measure (IRE) | 11 | 4 | 18 |
15:10:00 | Taunton | King Of Lombardy (IRE) | 11 | 14 | 20 |
15:10:00 | Taunton | Sailed Away (GER) | 11 | 2.25 | 22.25 |
| time | track | horse | runners | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
15:20:00 | Musselburgh | Native Fighter (IRE) | 12 | 4 | 4 |
15:20:00 | Musselburgh | Rickety Gate | 12 | 3.5 | 18 |
15:20:00 | Musselburgh | Sanosuke (IRE) | 12 | 6 | 20.5 |
15:20:00 | Musselburgh | The Blame Game (IRE) | 12 | 12 | 23.5 |
15:20:00 | Musselburgh | Champ Royal (FR) | 12 | 10 | 25.5 |
15:20:00 | Musselburgh | Shantou Moon (IRE) | 12 | 8 | 28.5 |
Only the Newbury card to look at for the NH today. So here is a couple of races to look at further.
2:25 - Frero Banbou is the one I like here. Trainer is in cracking form and this horse is unexposed over this distance. Has some great form over 2m and I think this is more his ground as opposed to the heavy ground he encountered LTO.
| time | track | horse | class | runners | category | Bower Rating |
14:25:00 | Newbury | Sail Away (FR) | Class 2 | 9 | National Hunt | 5 |
14:25:00 | Newbury | Frero Banbou (FR) | Class 2 | 9 | National Hunt | 9.75 |
14:25:00 | Newbury | The Big Bite (IRE) | Class 2 | 9 | National Hunt | 10 |
14:25:00 | Newbury | Iron Bridge (IRE) | Class 2 | 9 | National Hunt | 14 |
14:25:00 | Newbury | Karl Philippe (FR) | Class 2 | 9 | National Hunt | 15 |
| time | track | horse | class | runners | category | Bower Rating |
15:35:00 | Newbury | Hyland (FR) | Class 2 | 12 | National Hunt | 5.75 |
15:35:00 | Newbury | Gentleman At Arms (IRE) | Class 2 | 12 | National Hunt | 11.5 |
15:35:00 | Newbury | Ramo (FR) | Class 2 | 12 | National Hunt | 19 |
15:35:00 | Newbury | Ed Keeper (FR) | Class 2 | 12 | National Hunt | 20.5 |
15:35:00 | Newbury | Regal Blue (IRE) | Class 2 | 12 | National Hunt | 23 |
2:25 - Frero Banbou is the one I like here. Trainer is in cracking form and this horse is unexposed over this distance. Has some great form over 2m and I think this is more his ground as opposed to the heavy ground he encountered LTO.
Did everything right all race, jumped well until a last fence blunder. Would have won and should have won. 2nd place unfortunately.
Evening racing at Dundalk..
| time | track | horse | runners | category | Bower Rating |
18:30:00 | Dundalk | Bold Optimist (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 4 |
18:30:00 | Dundalk | Inishmot Prince (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 9.5 |
18:30:00 | Dundalk | Half Nutz (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 12 |
18:30:00 | Dundalk | Sams Xpress (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 12.5 |
18:30:00 | Dundalk | Distillate | 11 | All Weather | 14 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | Bower Rating |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | A Piece Of Heaven (FR) | 11 | All Weather | 5 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Sall Good Man (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 16 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | War Correspondent (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 17 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Celtic Revival (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 17 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | New Year Honours | 11 | All Weather | 21 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Autocrat (IRE) | 11 | All Weather | 21 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | Bower Rating |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | Samrogue (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 4 |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | No Speed Limit (FR) | 14 | All Weather | 7.5 |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | Realtin Fantasy (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 10 |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | Below Deck (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 14.5 |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | Adams Barbour (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 15 |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | Havana Notion | 14 | All Weather | 18 |
19:30:00 | Dundalk | My Girl Sioux (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 19.5 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | Bower Rating |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Hasten Slowly (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 4 |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Comfort Line (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 6.5 |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Pinball Wizard (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 10.5 |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Not Just Any Eagle (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 11.5 |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Shining Aitch | 14 | All Weather | 11.5 |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Areana (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 16 |
20:00:00 | Dundalk | Slieve Bearnagh (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 16.5 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | Bower Rating |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Doctor Grace (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 2.75 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Rhythm And Tyne (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 2.88 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Blackcastle Storm | 14 | All Weather | 3 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Moondharrig (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 18 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Hinemoa (FR) | 14 | All Weather | 22 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | War Thunder | 14 | All Weather | 28 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Pollanassa (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 30 |
ARAZI91
Mare
I have used this metric for years and it roughly coincides with the "Pareto" Distribution where around 80% of all winners come from 20% of all horses - i use Betfair pricing as it is more accurate and becomes more accurate towards race off time - the metric is BFSP(p) (or whatever Betfair pricing available within <=Last 5 mins) /Field Size(p) .............so you convert the odds and the Field size to probabilities which produces a numerical value where the baseline is 1.00 - a 1.00 means that Odds are the exact same as FS - eg in a 9 runner race you have a 9 decimal shot , so the equation is 1/9 divided by 1/9 or BF price(p)/Field Size(p) which will equate to (0.11111/0.11111) =1.00 - horses => 1.00 win around 79% of all races whilst the remaining 21% are won by those with a value of <1.00
For an example (and i know your using handicap races as that is part of the method) but i took a snapshot of the 5.30 at Dundalk tonight of BF's pricing at 5 mins to post just to show an example
I call it P/p Ratio where the Big P is the Price and small p is the Field Size - From this race 4 out of the first 5 placings (including the winner had values of >=1.00) - i have added in mean PRB2 ) - mean % of Rivals Beaten squared for the Green band and Red Band and convert those values into a ratio as well. Also Sum the >=1.00 values / <1.00 values to get a Field P/p Ratio which is handy as your data builds up , you could "bucket/band" certain thresholds and check the outcomes , ie >=2.00, >=2.50, >=3.00, >=3.50, >=4.00 - in this race those with a value of >=1.00 beat 64.26% of their rivals whilst those <1.00 only beat 18.15% of their rivals giving a Field PRB2 Ratio of (64.26/18.15=3.5405) - you can make the BF prices a little bit more accurate by excluding commission and std discount rate (usually 2% and 40%) by using the equation (Price) - ((Price*2%*(1-40%) ...eg (3.35) - ((3.35*2%*(1-40%)= a commission /discount rate free price of 3.31
It's a better metric as your including Field Size in the equation and FS matters ...a lot
It's actually quite predictive using the values produced from this metric from past races as well if you keep a database and record the ratios to BFSP(P) for example Inishmot Prince was a stand out just on this metric alone tonight , past prices incorporating Field Size are a form of "Expectation" and imo "Expectation" metrics are very good as they give you a baseline to work from.
Here's how the field would have looked using all Flat Turf /AW runs by career
And just by Career AW runs as it was at Dundalk
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Thanks
ARAZI91 am I right in thinking that equation gives more a 'true odds' per runner? Your comment ends with the equation then 'so you' - not sure if there was more to add and its just cut off at the end there?
ARAZI91
Mare
yeah soz was busy mate..... managed to finish the post off................. using BF pricing closer to the off will definitely give you more accurate pricing than using bookmakers pricing. I remember the Bowers book / articles but never read it, (must be one of only a few handicapping/betting books/articles that i haven't read) the Official Rating was another factor was it not? - whether it's good enough to beat the market long term these days is another story - markets and players have got sharper with the increase and useage of commercial software and data - the sharps are using machine learning, programmers and Bayesian updating to obtain better prices than Betfair themselves. There are plenty of methods for narrowing the field but it's what you do with the contenders after that what matters. Is the final Bowers Rating supposed to be a probability distribution , ie ... an oddsline , tissue ?? If you gave me a rundown of the basic method - could maybe help.Thanks
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ARAZI91 excellent and very informative post, thank you. I know I've been using a very basic method to see if it still holds some merit today but always open to suggestions on how to improve or revamp a similar idea. Odds are used in the method, what you have suggested is a new way to look at it from my point of view and one I see can be used to a fairly accurate degree. The shortlist is what it is, it's a way to look at the contenders in more detail. I'm finding the winner in the shortlist in 7/10 races using just bare basic stats/figures. Using odds/FS the way you have suggested is certainly an advancement and gives more of an 'expectation' to the race to come. How best to use/treat the figures is something I'll need to look at but using the benchmark figures you have mentioned is a starting point.
retriever
Stallion
The Eric Bowers method was/is a way to reduce the field in half in advance, say, the day before the race so that you could then avail yourself of the best early odds when the bookmakers published their prices. For obvious reasons it's a bit defunct today with bookie restrictions and closed accounts and them being chicken to price up independently on the whole.
Sure, there are better ways of finding the winner of the race but that's not purpose of the method. A challenge, therefore, would be to trap the winner of a Handicap race 80%+ of the time the evening or day before the race, even if it didn't serve any real punting edge.
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Sure, there are better ways of finding the winner of the race but that's not purpose of the method. A challenge, therefore, would be to trap the winner of a Handicap race 80%+ of the time the evening or day before the race, even if it didn't serve any real punting edge.
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I agree, a lot of my postings have been several hours before the races in question. Closer to the off could show the shortlist to be reduced further. The challenge, which I'm falling a tad short of at the moment, is to get the winner in the shortlist around 80% of the time. There is room for improvement.