Eric Bowers narrowing the field

[Olwenba]

5 races found today, couple were to close to call at the 50% mark so ignored them. This is what we are left with using the basic method.

time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
12:30:00​	Newbury	Inch House (IRE)	Class 2	8​	National Hunt	11.5​
12:30:00​	Newbury	Jay Jay Reilly (IRE)	Class 2	8​	National Hunt	12​
12:30:00​	Newbury	Kapga De Lily (FR)	Class 2	8​	National Hunt	15​
12:30:00​	Newbury	Killer Kane (IRE)	Class 2	8​	National Hunt	15​
time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
13:11:00​	Bangor	Feel The Pinch	Class 4	8​	National Hunt	2.5​
13:11:00​	Bangor	Thunderclap (IRE)	Class 4	8​	National Hunt	10​
13:11:00​	Bangor	Chti Balko (FR)	Class 4	8​	National Hunt	11​
13:11:00​	Bangor	Risk Dargent (FR)	Class 4	8​	National Hunt	13​
time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
13:31:00​	Doncaster	Soaring Glory (IRE)	Class 3	8​	National Hunt	10​
13:31:00​	Doncaster	Mr Freedom	Class 3	8​	National Hunt	13​
13:31:00​	Doncaster	Hurricane Ali (IRE)	Class 3	8​	National Hunt	16.5​
13:31:00​	Doncaster	Collingham (GER)	Class 3	8​	National Hunt	17​
time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
14:00:00​	Fairyhouse	Dancing On My Own (IRE)	Irish	12​	National Hunt	8​
14:00:00​	Fairyhouse	Fighting Fit	Irish	12​	National Hunt	16​
14:00:00​	Fairyhouse	Grey Diamond (FR)	Irish	12​	National Hunt	20​
14:00:00​	Fairyhouse	Solness (FR)	Irish	12​	National Hunt	23​
14:00:00​	Fairyhouse	Grange Walk (IRE)	Irish	12​	National Hunt	24​
time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
14:15:00​	Newbury	Under Control (FR)	Class 1	8​	National Hunt	2.25​
14:15:00​	Newbury	Hansard (IRE)	Class 1	8​	National Hunt	6​
14:15:00​	Newbury	Brentford Hope	Class 1	8​	National Hunt	7.5​
14:15:00​	Newbury	Our Champ (IRE)	Class 1	8​	National Hunt	24​

 

[Keerching]

Interesting theory this so is the selection the lowest or highest rated Bower Rating? or do I bet on all selections?

 

[Olwenba]

The method tries to cut out the no hopers as such, those with higher forecast odds and lower weighted in the race to leave the 'contenders' in the race which need further study of form. Winners have come from the lowest and highest rating and it is not necessarily the case that the lowest is the best in the race. Picking the 'winner' in the race does require some more form study and st the moment the winner is trapped in 70% of the races I've sampled so far. It's a very basic method but for punters who don't necessarily have the time to study all races and runners it is a nice starting point.

 

[Olwenba]

As an example looking at the 12.30 now on betfair it seems its between Inch house and way out. Out of the 2 only inch house is on the shortlist so would be my selection if I were to have a bet.

 

[Olwenba]

As an example looking at the 12.30 now on betfair it seems its between Inch house and way out. Out of the 2 only inch house is on the shortlist so would be my selection if I were to have a bet.

I wish it always that simple!

 

[Olwenba]

Already done for the day. 4/5 today. 47/66 overall 71%

 

[ARAZI91]

ARAZI91 excellent and very informative post, thank you. I know I've been using a very basic method to see if it still holds some merit today but always open to suggestions on how to improve or revamp a similar idea. Odds are used in the method, what you have suggested is a new way to look at it from my point of view and one I see can be used to a fairly accurate degree. The shortlist is what it is, it's a way to look at the contenders in more detail. I'm finding the winner in the shortlist in 7/10 races using just bare basic stats/figures. Using odds/FS the way you have suggested is certainly an advancement and gives more of an 'expectation' to the race to come. How best to use/treat the figures is something I'll need to look at but using the benchmark figures you have mentioned is a starting point.

Where that metric falls down or has a weakness is with the unexposed horses who don't have the "opportunity" to run maybe at short prices or in large fields - when you study handicaps, what hits you is the majority that are won by horses with 10 or less handicap runs, this is where the Gosdens, Prescotts, Varians and co have the edge - one big trend i have noticed in the past 5 years is the profitability in handicap debutantes in the UK Flat Turf /AW - Since 01/01/2019 to yesterday this is the results - all bets calculated using 2% commission /40% Disc.Rate at BFSP - 2408.74 pts profit from over 16000 bets and every season very profitable to a 14.6% ROI, Wins Above Expectation(WAx) 85.635 - the market are seriously under-estimating handicap debutantes, yet their performance statistics like Win Impact Values and PRB2 (% of Rivals Beaten^2) are below par - the market in general are letting some of these go off at prices way beyond their true chance and the statistical tests at the end are very significant, whilst between 2010 to 2018 ,collectively only one season was profitable , losing over 2000 points + and a -8% ROI

01/01/2019 to 01/12/2023 Breakdown

 

[formtheory]

Great posts here everyone! Interesting stuff !!

ARAZI91
Interesting stats regarding the handicap debutantes.

 

[formtheory]

ARAZI91

Do you have the percentage of handicap races won by Horses with 10 runs or less please ?

 

[ARAZI91]

ARAZI91

Do you have the percentage of handicap races won by Horses with 10 runs or less please ?

I do but i would exclude Nursery Hcaps for 2yo's - since 2013 the maximum number of runs in nursery handicaps was 11 so you would be including all results in there , i would also exclude selling , claiming, restricted, maiden and amateur rider races which leaves the big 3 of 3yo , 3yo+ and 4yo+ which covers 92.10% of all UK Flat Turf/AW Handicap races.

Give me a day to run a detailed analysis but if your just interested in basic win %'s
Runners <=10 Prev Hcap runs - 205899 Runners , 24311 wins , Win % = 11.81%
Runners > 10 Prev Hcap runs - 198173 Runners , 18229 wins , Win % = 9.20%

The <=10 Prev. Hcap runs group make a small profit even after commission / Disc.Rate
The > 10 Prev. Hcap runs group lose around 6% to turnover

I'll run a more detailed analysis in the morning and have a look at some trainer win %'s , maybe even within that analysis break it down to <=5 runs in Handicaps and <=3 runs in Handicaps to give us an idea of those that like to get quick off the mark. For example just having a quick look William Haggas has a <=3 PrevHcap run Win % of 26.53% , a <=5 Prev.Hcap run Win % of 22.59% and a <=10 Prev.Hcap run Win % of 21.64% - his >=10 Prev.Hcap run Win % is 16.87% - i would imagine your Gosden's , Varian's , Charlie Appleby etc have the same sort of distribution whereas somebody like Ruth Carr , Dean Ivory etc have a completely different distribution. I would say that precocity has a big say in these sort of distributions , Haggas , Gosden, Varian and Appleby will get plenty of progeny of Frankel, Dubawi , Sea The Stars etc with the handicapping potential to be around an 85+ horse, whilst the Ruth Carr's and Dean Ivory's will be working with progeny from lesser sires , therefore lesser limited ability. I'll put it on another thread formtheory as i don't want to disrupt O Olwenba's thread mate.

 

[ARAZI91]

Last Post regarding Handicapping debuts i done a study around a year ago which looked at the opening/starting handicap mark of the hcap debutante - Did it on a range of 45 to 95 - some interesting findings - if your unsure of the metrics just follow the win %



Couple of graphs to show the almost linear increase as the Opening OR for the handicap debutante gets larger so does Win % and PRB2 (sweet spot seems to be around 68 to 93)





Right - no more thread drift from me !!

Rob

 

[formtheory]

Thanks for your replies ARAZI91

Using your P/p ratio or The Eric Bowers method of eliminating runners, would there be a way of pricing the remaining runners only to get an “edge” .

 

[retriever]

Already done for the day. 4/5 today. 47/66 overall 71%

Nice priced winners there yesterday O Olwenba ........13/2, 7/1, 15/2......along with the 6/4
.

 

[formtheory]

Just had a look at the 12:55 Fairyhouse with the P/p idea (although still early)

And straight away you can see that the 18 runner field is cut to 6 runners. With 5 places on offer surely there’s an edge there somewhere.

I looked also at the past winners of the race and sure enough the winners fell in the >1:00 band.

I find Frontal Assault of interest after a decent run LTO in class 530 (VDW class rating) with improving speed figures.

Has ran well finishing 2nd in the Irish Grand National over C/D from the same mark also.

 

[Olwenba]

Only got 2 to have a look at today. The 2 big field handicaps were to close to call at the 50% cut off so have avoided. This is what we are left with.

time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
11:55:00​	Fairyhouse	Brides Hill (IRE)	Irish	8​	National Hunt	3​
11:55:00​	Fairyhouse	Hurricane Georgie (IRE)	Irish	8​	National Hunt	10​
11:55:00​	Fairyhouse	Must Be Obeyed (IRE)	Irish	8​	National Hunt	15​
11:55:00​	Fairyhouse	Queen Jane (IRE)	Irish	8​	National Hunt	16​
time	track	horse	class	runners	category	Bower Rating
14:45:00​	Carlisle	Hostile Hotelier (IRE)	Class 5	8​	National Hunt	1.75​
14:45:00​	Carlisle	Barney Stinson (IRE)	Class 5	8​	National Hunt	11.25​
14:45:00​	Carlisle	Dance Thief (IRE)	Class 5	8​	National Hunt	11.5​

 

[Olwenba]

Nice priced winners there yesterday O Olwenba ........13/2, 7/1, 15/2......along with the 6/4
.

Thanks! It's work in progress I'll take a look at some point the prices of some of the other winners/lovers see if there is anything else there to look at further but original thoughts are plenty of winners at some nice prices.

 

[Olwenba]

Just had a look at the 12:55 Fairyhouse with the P/p idea (although still early)

And straight away you can see that the 18 runner field is cut to 6 runners. With 5 places on offer surely there’s an edge there somewhere.

I looked also at the past winners of the race and sure enough the winners fell in the >1:00 band.

I find Frontal Assault of interest after a decent run LTO in class 530 (VDW class rating) with improving speed figures.

Has ran well finishing 2nd in the Irish Grand National over C/D from the same mark also.

Good luck formtheory

 

[LukeyBoy]

Just had a look at the 12:55 Fairyhouse with the P/p idea (although still early)

And straight away you can see that the 18 runner field is cut to 6 runners. With 5 places on offer surely there’s an edge there somewhere.

I looked also at the past winners of the race and sure enough the winners fell in the >1:00 band.

I find Frontal Assault of interest after a decent run LTO in class 530 (VDW class rating) with improving speed figures.

Has ran well finishing 2nd in the Irish Grand National over C/D from the same mark also.

Just to play devils advocate here.
The past winners fell into >1 band so is the value in the other band? Horses that could win but not necessarily accounted for.

 

[formtheory]

Maybe so but at the moment I’m interested in the narrowing of the field really.

As it looks a decent pool to fish in.

Especially as working full time which includes night shifts the Narrowing of the field appeals to me.

O Olwenba has been doing a great job with the Eric Bowers method and has trapped some decent priced winners, so it looks an area full of potential.

 

[retriever]

In the 2.45 Carlisle Batman For Ever would be a misnomer for the Eric Bower's method. Forecast around 16/1, now well supported in the market for some reason at 2nd Fav behind Hostile Hotelier.....probably due to the drop in Class / OR.......still carrying 12 stone though. Looks like a Lay to me at that price ( 3/1'ish ).