Eric Bowers narrowing the field
- Thread starter Olwenba
- Start date
After careful consideration only 2 more races to go at today... see how these do tonight.
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs diff | Bower Rating |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Lockdown | 14 | All Weather | 140 | 62 | 5.5 | 0 | 5.5 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Teddy Boy (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 134 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Hero Of The Hour | 14 | All Weather | 133 | 55 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Havana Notion | 14 | All Weather | 132 | 54 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Jazzy Dancer (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 130 | 52 | 6.5 | 10 | 16.5 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | Darcys Rock | 14 | All Weather | 129 | 51 | 8 | 11 | 19 |
19:00:00 | Dundalk | No Speed Limit (FR) | 14 | All Weather | 129 | 51 | 8 | 11 | 19 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs diff | Bower Rating |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Firm Belief (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 141 | 64 | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Gracesolution (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 141 | 64 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Clever Currency (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 124 | 47 | 2.75 | 17 | 19.75 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Spinning Web (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 121 | 49 | 2.5 | 20 | 22.5 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Vista Baby (FR) | 14 | All Weather | 124 | 52 | 8 | 17 | 25 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Mater Matuta (IRE) | 14 | All Weather | 126 | 49 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
20:30:00 | Dundalk | Together Aclaim | 14 | All Weather | 124 | 47 | 14 | 17 | 31 |
Only 1 race to go at today... I'm left with 9 runners, will see nearer the off the weight of money and eliminate anymore.
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs diff | Bower Rating |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Crambo | 15 | National Hunt | 164 | 139 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Bold Endeavour | 15 | National Hunt | 168 | 143 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Gowel Road (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 165 | 140 | 12 | 3 | 15 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Howlingmadmurdock (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 165 | 140 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Slate Lane (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 152 | 127 | 3.5 | 16 | 19.5 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Lord Snootie (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 148 | 123 | 7 | 20 | 27 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Wakool (FR) | 15 | National Hunt | 165 | 140 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Emitom (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 152 | 127 | 12 | 16 | 28 |
14:20:00 | Haydock | Dubrovnik Harry (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 150 | 125 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
1 race. 1 winner from it. 25/35 overall. Basic method holding up okay so far even with some mistakes in race selection. Yesterday and today races are what I believe are balanced handicaps, 4/4 from them. Plenty races to look at yesterday and today just many fall short of that criteria.
We have 4 races today. Shortlists below.
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs Diff | Bower Rating |
13:10:00 | Cork | Housemartin (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 164 | 104 | 2.25 | 2 | 4.25 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Bukhill (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 168 | 108 | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Tipp For Mac (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 161 | 101 | 10 | 4 | 14 |
13:10:00 | Cork | The Truant (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 157 | 97 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Max Time (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 140 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Sidiriya (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 158 | 98 | 16 | 5 | 21 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Ventnor (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 140 | 80 | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs Diff | Bower Rating |
14:50:00 | Cork | Dundaniel (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 140 | 114 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
14:50:00 | Cork | The Big Galloper (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 142 | 116 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
14:50:00 | Cork | En Beton (FR) | 11 | National Hunt | 166 | 140 | 4.5 | 11 | 15.5 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Riaan (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 162 | 136 | 5.5 | 15 | 20.5 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Take All (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 161 | 135 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Percy Warner (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 154 | 128 | 5 | 22 | 27 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs Diff | Bower Rating |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Longhouse Poet (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 166 | 141 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Stuzzikini (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 160 | 135 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | The Shunter (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 163 | 138 | 5.5 | 10 | 15.5 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Popova (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 150 | 125 | 7 | 18 | 25 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Shadow Rider (FR) | 12 | National Hunt | 151 | 126 | 10 | 17 | 27 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | lbs Diff | Bower Rating |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Danton (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 168 | 100 | 2.75 | 0 | 2.75 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Dylans Double (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 164 | 96 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Lock Out (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 162 | 94 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Bala Brook | 15 | National Hunt | 161 | 93 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Malago Rose (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 154 | 86 | 6 | 14 | 20 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Inchagoill Lady (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 166 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 22 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Joe Cotton (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 159 | 91 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Hellfire Princess | 15 | National Hunt | 158 | 90 | 14 | 10 | 24 |
Not sure how but I made an error in the filtering so some of the numbers don't add up. Managed to redo but its post racing now, would have been 3/4 today.
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower rating |
13:10:00 | Cork | Bukhill (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 168 | 108 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Housemartin (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 164 | 104 | 2.25 | 6.25 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Tipp For Mac (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 161 | 101 | 10 | 17 |
13:10:00 | Cork | The Truant (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 157 | 97 | 7 | 18 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Sidiriya (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 158 | 98 | 16 | 26 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Dontdooddson (FR) | 14 | National Hunt | 151 | 91 | 10 | 27 |
13:10:00 | Cork | Dgalwaygallivantor (IRE) | 14 | National Hunt | 150 | 90 | 10 | 28 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower rating |
14:50:00 | Cork | En Beton (FR) | 11 | National Hunt | 166 | 140 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Riaan (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 162 | 136 | 5.5 | 9.5 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Take All (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 161 | 135 | 10 | 15 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Embittered (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 164 | 138 | 14 | 16 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Percy Warner (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 154 | 128 | 5 | 17 |
14:50:00 | Cork | Lucky Max (GER) | 11 | National Hunt | 159 | 133 | 12 | 19 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower rating |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Longhouse Poet (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 166 | 141 | 5 | 5 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | The Shunter (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 163 | 138 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Stuzzikini (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 160 | 135 | 3 | 9 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Popova (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 150 | 125 | 7 | 23 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Shadow Rider (FR) | 12 | National Hunt | 151 | 126 | 10 | 25 |
15:00:00 | Punchestown | Gabbys Cross (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 148 | 123 | 8 | 26 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | pounds | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower rating |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Danton (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 168 | 100 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Dylans Double (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 164 | 96 | 8 | 12 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Lock Out (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 162 | 94 | 10 | 16 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Bala Brook | 15 | National Hunt | 161 | 93 | 10 | 17 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Malago Rose (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 154 | 86 | 6 | 20 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Inchagoill Lady (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 166 | 98 | 20 | 22 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Joe Cotton (IRE) | 15 | National Hunt | 159 | 91 | 14 | 23 |
15:45:00 | Exeter | Hellfire Princess | 15 | National Hunt | 158 | 90 | 14 | 24 |
3 races today, I have made a couple of tweaks one of which is using a different forecast. The method has selected the races that seems to have a number of unexposed runners in them but hopefully the forecast/live market will help with that.
| time | track | horse | runners | category | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | Braganza Bay | 12 | National Hunt | 100 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | Gallow Ford (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 99 | 8 | 9 |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | Justshortofabubble | 12 | National Hunt | 94 | 5.5 | 11.5 |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | Meechlands Magic | 12 | National Hunt | 85 | 5 | 20 |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | Safe Destination | 12 | National Hunt | 87 | 9 | 22 |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | West Orchard (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 83 | 6 | 23 |
13:40:00 | Ludlow | On The Platform (IRE) | 12 | National Hunt | 87 | 10 | 23 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
14:15:00 | Ludlow | Movie King (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 104 | 5 | 5 |
14:15:00 | Ludlow | The Scorpion King | 11 | National Hunt | 102 | 8 | 10 |
14:15:00 | Ludlow | Duke Of Moravia (IRE) | 11 | National Hunt | 98 | 5 | 11 |
14:15:00 | Ludlow | Getbazoutofhere | 11 | National Hunt | 92 | 8 | 20 |
14:15:00 | Ludlow | Clondaw Pretender | 11 | National Hunt | 86 | 4 | 22 |
| time | track | horse | runners | category | OfficialRating | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
15:35:00 | Kempton | Brookie (IRE) | 10 | National Hunt | 126 | 5 | 5 |
15:35:00 | Kempton | Samuel Spade (GER) | 10 | National Hunt | 120 | 7 | 13 |
15:35:00 | Kempton | In This World (FR) | 10 | National Hunt | 124 | 14 | 16 |
15:35:00 | Kempton | Tapley | 10 | National Hunt | 116 | 7 | 17 |
15:35:00 | Kempton | Oslo | 10 | National Hunt | 112 | 3 | 17 |
retriever
Stallion
Hi
O
Olwenba
I used to use the EB method quite a bit when this forum had what was known as the Class sheets on the The Inner Sanctum. These sheets are, unfortunately, no longer being produced. Half the field ( the qualifiers ) were high-lighted in blue which could then be cross-referenced with other bits of info. Nowadays, I just make a visual or mental note of those that are in the range if I need to split runners, etc.
Anyway, what I was going to suggest was, instead of using one forecast for the odds, perhaps a better idea would be to use a cross-section of the odds on offer by the bookmakers.
If you have the Oddschecker app on your phone it easy to take the best price that's showing for each runner the evening before. This I think would be better than using a forecast price from only one source and would be a better reflection of the market or horses chance. Book % usually adds up to 120-125%.
.
I used to use the EB method quite a bit when this forum had what was known as the Class sheets on the The Inner Sanctum. These sheets are, unfortunately, no longer being produced. Half the field ( the qualifiers ) were high-lighted in blue which could then be cross-referenced with other bits of info. Nowadays, I just make a visual or mental note of those that are in the range if I need to split runners, etc.
Anyway, what I was going to suggest was, instead of using one forecast for the odds, perhaps a better idea would be to use a cross-section of the odds on offer by the bookmakers.
If you have the Oddschecker app on your phone it easy to take the best price that's showing for each runner the evening before. This I think would be better than using a forecast price from only one source and would be a better reflection of the market or horses chance. Book % usually adds up to 120-125%.
.
Hi
retriever
Did you find the EB method still had some merit to it? Sounds like you have a way of studying the form and the method is an additional measure as such that you use to confirm a possible selection. I'm using the method as a sole starting point, basic in its way but was hopefully and some success. I'm falling short of the 89% he quoted (the 25/28 in the first week of October) I'm at around 70% at the moment. Certainly could have avoided some of the losing races I've posted but could have avoided some of the winning races too.
Thanks for the suggestion regarding the forecast prices, I do have access to horseracebase and was using their forecast prices originally (not sure of the source) but now switched to the RP. I will develop into this further.
retriever Did you find the EB method still had some merit to it? Sounds like you have a way of studying the form and the method is an additional measure as such that you use to confirm a possible selection. I'm using the method as a sole starting point, basic in its way but was hopefully and some success. I'm falling short of the 89% he quoted (the 25/28 in the first week of October) I'm at around 70% at the moment. Certainly could have avoided some of the losing races I've posted but could have avoided some of the winning races too.
Thanks for the suggestion regarding the forecast prices, I do have access to horseracebase and was using their forecast prices originally (not sure of the source) but now switched to the RP. I will develop into this further.
mlmrob
Sire
O
Olwenba
I have attached all the races with Bowers ratings for today. Pretty easy to do and it takes seconds.
If you are an HRB member you can set your daily report to download the OR and Odds.
What you need to do is separate each race by time.
Click on ALT and F11 and enter the below
Sub AddRows()
Dim r As Long
For r = Cells(Rows.Count, 1).End(xlUp).Row To 2 Step -1
If Cells(r, 1) <> Cells(r - 1, 1) Then Rows(r).Insert Shift:=xlDown
Next r
End Sub
Save that and press Alt and F8 then find the add rows macro and click run.
Once each each race has a gap between them add a column next to the OR and in E3 add this
=IF(D3="","",RANK(D3,INDEX(D$2$1000,LOOKUP(2,1/ISBLANK(D$13),ROW(D$13))):INDEX(D3$1000,MATCH(1,INDEX(--ISBLANK(D3$1000),0),0)-1)))
and drag down
Then in G3 write
=SUM(E3+F3) and drag down
It sounds complicated but it isn't and you will have the Bower ratings for the entire day in seconds. If you change the forecast the rating column will automatically sum.
You will end up with what is attached.
It will look like below
or orrank odds bower rating
I have attached all the races with Bowers ratings for today. Pretty easy to do and it takes seconds.
If you are an HRB member you can set your daily report to download the OR and Odds.
What you need to do is separate each race by time.
Click on ALT and F11 and enter the below
Sub AddRows()
Dim r As Long
For r = Cells(Rows.Count, 1).End(xlUp).Row To 2 Step -1
If Cells(r, 1) <> Cells(r - 1, 1) Then Rows(r).Insert Shift:=xlDown
Next r
End Sub
Save that and press Alt and F8 then find the add rows macro and click run.
Once each each race has a gap between them add a column next to the OR and in E3 add this
=IF(D3="","",RANK(D3,INDEX(D$2$1000,LOOKUP(2,1/ISBLANK(D$13),ROW(D$13))):INDEX(D3$1000,MATCH(1,INDEX(--ISBLANK(D3$1000),0),0)-1)))
and drag down
Then in G3 write
=SUM(E3+F3) and drag down
It sounds complicated but it isn't and you will have the Bower ratings for the entire day in seconds. If you change the forecast the rating column will automatically sum.
You will end up with what is attached.
It will look like below
or orrank odds bower rating
Last edited:
Thanks
mlmrob I've just tired to use this now the macro works but unfortunately the formula doesn't, its pops up with a error with formula box and highlights (D$2$1000, at the beginning of the formula. I'm not too excel savvy so I'm not sure exactly what is missing there. I see it uses the ranking of official ratings rather than the difference in lbs, it certainly does look a far quicker way to rate a whole days handicaps!
mlmrob I've just tired to use this now the macro works but unfortunately the formula doesn't, its pops up with a error with formula box and highlights (D$2$1000, at the beginning of the formula. I'm not too excel savvy so I'm not sure exactly what is missing there. I see it uses the ranking of official ratings rather than the difference in lbs, it certainly does look a far quicker way to rate a whole days handicaps!Thanks @mlmrob I've just tired to use this now the macro works but unfortunately the formula doesn't, its pops up with a error with formula box and highlights (D$2$1000, at the beginning of the formula.
Ignore me, I just needed to copy and paste from the excel sheet you created!
Just the one to have a further look at today, I've used the forecast odds from Oddschecker this time and used the ranking of OR rather than the difference in OR.
| time | track | horse | OfficialRating | OR rank | FCOdds | Bower Rating |
14:20:00 | Sedgefield | Whitehaven (FR) | 99 | 1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
14:20:00 | Sedgefield | El Jefe (IRE) | 89 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
14:20:00 | Sedgefield | For Three (IRE) | 88 | 3 | 2.75 | 5.75 |
14:20:00 | Sedgefield | Mr Rumbalicious (IRE) | 88 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
14:20:00 | Sedgefield | Grifter | 83 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
retriever
Stallion
I tend to follow individual horses these days - mainly on the AW and then into the Flat season. I don't get involved much in the Jumps racing although I do like to watch it. HorseRaceBase is the best - I couldn't be without it!
HRB uses the forecast prices from William Hill.
I wouldn't beat yourself up about not hitting 89%. Racing would be much more competitive these days compared to when EB wrote that book in the 1990's. I also think its valid to use the method down to 8 runner races. I think 8 to 12 runners is a happy medium.
Incidentally, have you seen this thread on here posted by
Jackform ( 2014 ), which was probably where I first came across the EB method - a posting by Chesham.
Handicap races standard odds
The handicapper compiling official ratings (OR) attempts to give each runner an equal chance so the 'standard odds' for a race is one less than field, ignoring any set to carry more than their long handicap weight. Being at a loose end with Beverley abandoned I considered the Chepstow 5.15...
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
Shortlist for the NH, will have a look at Dundalk later...
| time | track | horse | race_restrictions | runners | Bower Rating |
12:50:00 | Hereford | Great Ocean (FR) | 3yo+ | 13 | 4 |
12:50:00 | Hereford | Passionate Pursuit (IRE) | 3yo+ | 13 | 13 |
12:50:00 | Hereford | Iron Dex (FR) | 3yo+ | 13 | 9 |
12:50:00 | Hereford | Man Of The Sea (IRE) | 3yo+ | 13 | 10 |
12:50:00 | Hereford | Force De Frap (FR) | 3yo+ | 13 | 14 |
12:50:00 | Hereford | Angels Voice (IRE) | 3yo+ | 13 | 18 |
| time | track | horse | race_restrictions | runners | Bower Rating |
13:25:00 | Hereford | Dusky Days (IRE) | 4yo+ | 10 | 8 |
13:25:00 | Hereford | Phoenix Aquilus (IRE) | 4yo+ | 10 | 9 |
13:25:00 | Hereford | Criquette (FR) | 4yo+ | 10 | 17 |
13:25:00 | Hereford | Herecomeshogan (IRE) | 4yo+ | 10 | 21 |
13:25:00 | Hereford | Loudspeaker | 4yo+ | 10 | 22 |
| time | track | horse | race_restrictions | runners | Bower Rating |
13:35:00 | Kelso | Hattons Gardens (IRE) | 4yo+ | 14 | 10 |
13:35:00 | Kelso | So They Say | 4yo+ | 14 | 11 |
13:35:00 | Kelso | Secret Secret (IRE) | 4yo+ | 14 | 4.25 |
13:35:00 | Kelso | Ballyquin Bay (IRE) | 4yo+ | 14 | 16 |
13:35:00 | Kelso | You Some Girl (IRE) | 4yo+ | 14 | 9 |
13:35:00 | Kelso | Bouncing Bobby (IRE) | 4yo+ | 14 | 15.5 |
| time | track | horse | race_restrictions | runners | Bower Rating |
15:10:00 | Hereford | Tide Times (IRE) | 4yo+ | 10 | 10 |
15:10:00 | Hereford | Hipop Des Ongrais (FR) | 4yo+ | 10 | 5 |
15:10:00 | Hereford | Langley Hundred (IRE) | 4yo+ | 10 | 10.5 |
15:10:00 | Hereford | Pilot Show (IRE) | 4yo+ | 10 | 12 |
15:10:00 | Hereford | Faustinovick | 4yo+ | 10 | 19 |