Eric Bowers narrowing the field

[DuckandDive]

When comparing Bowers & my rating, the 5 highlighted on the initial short-list are of interest.

Moon Beginnings has the Pace and is well drawn, so that catches the eye within the Short-List. Lord Capulet has to overcome being drawn 9.
King's School / Be Frank / KIndest Nation have some value in their prices, although the last 2 aren't Bowers approved.




No joy on that one.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Today's Newspaper ORs cards.

 

[Olwenba]

When comparing Bowers & my rating, the 5 highlighted on the initial short-list are of interest.

Moon Beginnings has the Pace and is well drawn, so that catches the eye within the Short-List. Lord Capulet has to overcome being drawn 9.
King's School / Be Frank / KIndest Nation have some value in their prices, although the last 2 aren't Bowers approved.

View attachment 168256

My shortlist. It is an amateur jockeys race sonnot one I wuold usually get involved with. My pace map and my shortened view of the pace analyses in the race.


Maxi Boy is the pace verdict selection. Stall 1 is about as good as it gets at this course, his running style (genuine FR/Prominent, with a strong big-field near-miss showing he can compete deep into a race from the front) is exactly what the draw rewards, and Chester's combination of low-draw bias + front-runner-friendly 5-7f profile means a modest recent dip in form is offset by a draw advantage few in this field can match. The course's own logic — get to the front from an inside draw — points squarely at him.
Kings School (Bowers shortlist) is the each-way danger. Stall 4 sits inside the favoured zone, and his twice-proven "arrives right on the line" closing kick (including at 13-runner scale) means he doesn't need to fight for an early position — he can sit close to the rail, conserve ground throughout the tight turns, and produce his sustained finishing effort exactly where this course's short run-in rewards it. The combination of a good-but-not-premium draw with a genuinely proven finishing tool is a strong each-way profile.
Lord Capulet (IRE) — important reassessment. Despite being the clear pace-quality leader, stall 9 is a real concern that the running-style analysis alone wouldn't surface. If he reverts to his usual front-running game plan, he faces a genuine fight just to get across to a workable position before the turns start working against him — and Chester's stats on stall 9-11 are stark. His class may be enough to overcome it, especially given how dominant his winning form has been, but this isn't the "draw doesn't matter for a horse this good" situation — it's closer to "this horse needs to prove he can overcome a real, quantified course disadvantage." Treat as a player rather than the natural favourite his form alone would suggest, with the draw being the specific reason for the downgrade.

 

[Sullybomb]

Great work O Olwenba

 

[Leodis]

I think you need a bigger banner, Sullybomb

 

[Sullybomb]

You might be right Leodis

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I mentioned to Craig Thake, "TS", if I had to describe what I thought of the new RP page layout,
I would have to insert a f-bomb between each word.

I am still working with Copilot:

 

[Olwenba]

3.00 York

Shortlist and Pace analyses.

Splish Splash (IRE) is the pace verdict selection. He combines a genuinely strong recent front-running profile (an emphatic 11-runner make-all win, "ran on well to draw away... easily") with stall 3 — inside York's premium low-draw zone. Unlike Eternal Sunshine and Dandana, his running style and his draw are aligned rather than in conflict, which on a course where this alignment carries an A/E of 2.92 for front-runners is a meaningfully different proposition. His big-field evidence (19-runner 3rd, "kept on well final furlong") also shows the profile holds up away from small fields.
Beaujolais Nouveau (Bowers shortlist) is the each-way danger. Two consecutive wins from the front, the most recent showing "pressed leader, pushed along to lead over 1f out, clear final furlong, ran on well" — and stall 4 sits inside the favoured zone. The earlier poor runs from midfield look explainable by a tactical shift that's now working; if that shift is durable, a low-drawn, currently-winning front-runner at a course this front-runner-biased is a strong each-way price regardless of what the two big names (Dandana/Eternal Sunshine) do from their wider draws.
Worth a brief mention: Cool Molly (IRE), whose four wins and genuine tactical versatility (both FR and patient-closing methods have worked) from a reasonable stall 6 make her a credible alternative if the rail/low-draw runners get tactically compromised by each other early — though nothing in her CV matches the sheer weight of recent winning form shown by Dandana or Eternal Sunshine.
A final note on Dandana and Eternal Sunshine: their running-style case is the strongest in the race by a wide margin, and class/ability can absolutely overcome a draw disadvantage — but at a course where the bias is this pronounced and this consistent, both need to be regraded from "the obvious leaders on form" to "horses whose draw creates a genuine question their form alone doesn't answer." Eternal Sunshine especially — stall 12 at York 6f, for a confirmed serial front-runner, is a real obstacle that shouldn't be glossed over just because his recent form is so strong.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Today's Newspaper ORs cards.