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Double Trouble

tonyafc tonyafc
footysystems footysystems
Sigster Sigster

Thanks very much indeed guys. I have a feeling that these approaches may struggle a little with the regular season(s) in Europe (and beyond) due in part to the type of analysis and it's limitations and also the wider variation in goal scoring that we see in those leagues. It will most likely mean that I will have to target the lower scoring leagues throughout and the various problems that come with the slightly more exotic/lower league games. I reckon it's a given that we need to be flexible and adaptable so I'll continue to number crunch in the meantime. I won't be able to process too much data as it's pretty much hands on stuff so I'll try to target a half dozen leagues or so, I should be able to keep the workload manageable in those circumstances.
If anyone knows of readily accessible data on league scoring Standard Deviations I'd be much obliged but I think it'll need doing the hard way. :think:


ATB, John
 
Some action perhaps from S. America in the early hours and quite a few to look at from Argentina and Brazil on Saturday. The Venezuelan, Colombian and Ecuadorian leagues may also well be worth a look as soon as each side have around six games apiece on the board; it'll be great to see if we can get some solid results from them too.


J
 
Thank you very much Lee, I began looking at this site for info a month or so ago - had forgotten how much info was of use to me, I am very much obliged Sir. So much quicker than cut, paste, sort, oops made a mistake start again....! It's a good source of little gems this.
ATB, John
 
Just putting these few up for interest and test as my figures look quite a bit out in places. Newly promoted Deportivo Municipal go to Cajamarca and my numbers appear to make them much harder to turn over than the bookies suggest; I have them as unders and look cracking odds at 5.00 to take all the spoils.
Bookies have gone overs in the second Peruvian match, I still have them as unders and a tight game. It could be tight in the Argentine game too as high flying Los Andes seem to be becoming draw specialists on the road.
I leave them and watch them as these are complete unknowns for me.


24/07/15 Peru Primera Cajamarca - Dep. Municipal X2 H 1.73 D 3.50 A 5.00. U: 1.53 O: 2.4
24/07/15 Peru Primera Alianza Atl. - Cesar Vallejo 1X H 3.10 D 3.25 A 2.30. U: 1.85 O: 1.95
24/07/15 Arg Primera Nacional Ind. Rivadavia - Los Andes 1X H 2.38 D 2.88 A 3.40 U: 2.38 O: 1.57

Edit: forgot to include odds
 
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mandkay mandkay
tonyafc tonyafc
Thanks very much Kev and Tony , but in all truth there is really no one more surprised than myself at present, I still believe that with so few offerings put up this could just be a little bit of glitter sprinkled on the t*rd because I am a firm believer in not being able to polish one.
I know that Lee has the main season sorted or it certainly seems so from reading between the lines of his thread, it would be absolutely brilliant if these results can stand up to scrutiny as well as they could chip in when the main season bets hit the unpredictable during the run in's

When the offerings from far flung fields are so meagre; I don't blame anyone for leaving the Summer aside at all, many of these leagues should really be left well alone in truth the majority are almost complete unknowns to me even though I have had the data for ages I just never used it; I tried it on the five main English leagues and major Euros though - with varied degrees of success I may add.


I have almost finished with the S. American stuff for today which I will post in a bit just to really try to break the system as it's still a little bit too easy to take this small sample as the norm atm. The Venezuelan's have just begun their mid-season tournament and Ecuador and Colombia need a few more games in their comps for me to have sufficient data to work with, I really need to find where it breaks down, double results reduce any profit of course, and quite possibly hide some failings of this as I have mentioned elsewhere, I'm not sure what to concentrate on though just yet.

Cheers, John.
 
I am aware that sometimes I forget to update results, so I will endeavour to update warts and all.

24/07/15 Peru Primera Cajamarca - Dep. Municipal X2 H 1.73 D 3.50 A 5.00. U: 1.53 O: 2.4. Result 2-3. Real goal-fest here, I didn't see that one coming, would have wrecked any unders bet - and noted! I 'expected' 0-0 or 0-1.
24/07/15 Peru Primera Alianza Atl. - Cesar Vallejo 1X H 3.10 D 3.25 A 2.30. U: 1.85 O: 1.95. Result 1-1. Probably looked the tightest of the three matches on paper.
24/07/15 Arg Primera Nacional Ind. Rivadavia - Los Andes 1X H 2.38 D 2.88 A 3.40 U: 2.38 O: 1.57 Result 1-0. Los Andes had a player sent off in the 83rd minute and conceded in the 84th.


ATB, John
 
I'll just pop these up 'as is' for the moment.

25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia Mendoza 1
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Instituto - Ferro Carril Oeste 1X
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Guillermo Brown - Villa Dálmine X2
25/07/15 Arg Primera Gimnasia La Plata - Crucero del Norte 1
25/07/15 Arg Primera River Plate - Colón 1
25/07/15 Arg Primera Sarmiento - Tigre X2
25/07/15 Arg Primera Unión Santa Fe - Banfield X2
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Comunicaciones - Deportivo Merlo 1X
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Armenio - Villa San Carlos 1
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Español - UAI Urquiza 1X
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Atlanta - Brown de Adrogué X
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Náutico - Vitória 1X
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Sampaio Corrêa - ABC 1X
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Bahia - Botafogo 1(X)
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Criciúma - Santa Cruz 1X
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B CRB - Paysandu 1X
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Grêmio - Sport Recife 1
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Avaí - Atlético PR 1X

John
 
Thanks Lee. I have to find a way to stop flaffing about with them though!

Selections and available Win/Draw Odds
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Instituto - Ferro Carril Oeste 1X 1.80 3.11 4.33
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia Mendoza 1 2.38 2.98 2.91
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Guillermo Brown - Villa Dálmine X2 2.06 3.02 3.50
25/07/15 Arg Primera Sarmiento - Tigre X2 2.71 2.88 2.72
25/07/15 Arg Primera Unión Santa Fe - Banfield X2 2.65 3.00 2.68
25/07/15 Arg Primera River Plate - Colón 1 1.43 3.91 7.64
25/07/15 Arg Primera Gimnasia La Plata - Crucero del Norte 1 1.44 3.94 7.26
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Español - UAI Urquiza 1X 2.01 2.87 3.79
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Armenio - Villa San Carlos 1 1.90 2.88 4.23
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Comunicaciones - Deportivo Merlo 1X 2.69 2.83 2.61
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Atlanta - Brown de Adrogué X 2.68 3.19 3.38
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B CRB - Paysandu 1X 2.48 3.04 2.74
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Bahia - Botafogo 1(X) 1.98 2.34 3.54
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Criciúma - Santa Cruz 1X 2.09 3.18 3.29
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Sampaio Corrêa - ABC 1X 1.95 3.29 3.61
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Náutico - Vitória 1X 2.19 3.23 3.05
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Avaí - Atlético PR 1X 2.24 3.16 3.18
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Grêmio - Sport Recife 1 1.54 3.76 6.13

If I were going to go with home wins I'd take the three that are currently the shortest although odds are very poor: Gremio, River Plate and Gimansia.
At around 3.50 Villa Dálmine might be worth a shout foe an Away Win/Draw, the other possible aways look to be a little trickier.

I have takeen the Nacional Instituto - Ferro Carril Oeste and Deportivo Español - UAI Urquiza in a CS FT double, the latter KO early hours tomorrow. Odds are low on the 0-0's and 1-0's so slight adjustments required, cover bet is 8pts.

I have targeted these games as the overall total goals favour unders backers, hopefully most of these could show a profit to level stakes.

Published Under/Over Odds
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Instituto - Ferro Carril Oeste 1X 1.75 2.10
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia Mendoza 1 1.44 2.70
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Guillermo Brown - Villa Dálmine X2 1.70 2.10
25/07/15 Arg Primera Sarmiento - Tigre X2 1.67 2.15
25/07/15 Arg Primera Unión Santa Fe - Banfield X2 1.48 2.60
25/07/15 Arg Primera River Plate - Colón 1 1.50 2.50
25/07/15 Arg Primera Gimnasia La Plata - Crucero del Norte 1 1.44 2.70
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Español - UAI Urquiza 1X 1.38 3.00
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Armenio - Villa San Carlos 1 1.40 2.85
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Comunicaciones - Deportivo Merlo 1X 1.45 2.67
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Atlanta - Brown de Adrogué X 1.63 2.25
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B CRB - Paysandu 1X 1.67 2.15
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Bahia - Botafogo 1(X) 1.57 2.31
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Criciúma - Santa Cruz 1X 1.70 2.10
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Sampaio Corrêa - ABC 1X 1.75 2.05
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Náutico - Vitória 1X 1.75 2.05
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Avaí - Atlético PR 1X 1.62 2.25
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Grêmio - Sport Recife 1 1.70 2.10

These are the lowest Unders and Over with my own calculated odds, watch it all go t**ts up now! Lol
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Bahia - Botafogo 1(X) 1.11 10.28
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Náutico - Vitória 1X 1.14 8.01
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B CRB - Paysandu 1X 1.18 6.57
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Español - UAI Urquiza 1X 1.27 4.73
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Sampaio Corrêa - ABC 1X 1.33 4.03

ATB, John
 
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I will try and put up my own calculated 'Fair' odds with the bookies odds where I can; I usually forget to look for them/give them much creedence but it might be worth keeping a note. I think I have them corrected to all but 0.13% - of course they could be way out as they are calced from my figures but we'll see if we can turn up any 'value' bet angles amongst the morass.

Just a few notes on the fixtures I put up earlier.
Atlético PR are having a 'Mare' on the road at the moment, and lowly Avaí poor as they are, just might have enough of home form to 'see them off' at around 2.24.
The away performances lately of: Crucero del Norte, Gimnasia Mendoza and Villa San Carlos all look poor enough to get a coach scanning their local paper for a new job.
Vitória have gone off the boil lately and I'm pretty sure Nautico won't let them off the hook if they can help it, 2.19 for the Home win looks a tad skinny though.
Sarmiento and Comunicaciones home form could leave them vulnerable.

John
 
The odds were so poor on the 0-0's in my FTCS that I adjusted the stakes and added a cover bet of 8pts for the enhanced outlay on the perms which is the largest I have had to place thus far; fortunately the games ended 1-1 and 0-0 and with Bet365 paying out on the first half (the 1-1) of the double the bet returned 62.8pts profit including the 7.8pts from the under 2.5 goals cover bet.

I do know that Gremio had a poor result for the three home 'bankers' (drew 1-1) whilst Gimnasia and River Plate (it seems) struggled past their opposition.

I will update results in a short while and see if there is anything worth gathering data for today too.


ATB, John
 
A bit of a mixed bag as you might expect:


25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Instituto - Ferro Carril Oeste 1X 1.80 3.11 4.33 Won 0-0 +0.14
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia Mendoza 1 2.38 2.98 2.91 Won 1-0 +1.38
25/07/15 Arg Prem B Nacional Guillermo Brown - Villa Dálmine X2 2.06 3.02 3.50 Won 0-1 +0.62
25/07/15 Arg Primera Sarmiento - Tigre X2 2.71 2.88 2.72 Won 0-1 +0.40
25/07/15 Arg Primera Unión Santa Fe - Banfield X2 2.65 3.00 2.68 Won 0-0 +0.42
25/07/15 Arg Primera River Plate - Colón 1 1.43 3.91 7.64 Won 3-1 +0.43
25/07/15 Arg Primera Gimnasia La Plata - Crucero del Norte 1 1.44 3.94 7.26 Won 3-1 +0.44
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Español - UAI Urquiza 1X 2.01 2.87 3.79 Won 1-1 +0.63
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Armenio - Villa San Carlos 1 1.90 2.88 4.23 Lost 0-0 -1.0
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Comunicaciones - Deportivo Merlo 1X 2.69 2.83 2.61 Won 1-0 +0.38
25/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Atlanta - Brown de Adrogué X 2.68 3.19 3.38 Won 0-2 +0.64
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B CRB - Paysandu 1X 2.48 3.04 2.74 Won 3-0 +0.37
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Bahia - Botafogo 1(X) 1.98 2.34 3.54 Won 1-1 +0.07
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Criciúma - Santa Cruz 1X 2.09 3.18 3.29 Won 0-0 +0.26
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Sampaio Corrêa - ABC 1X 1.95 3.29 3.61 Won 3-2 +0.22
25/07/15 Brazil Serie B Náutico - Vitória 1X 2.19 3.23 3.05 Won 2-1 +0.31
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Avaí - Atlético PR 1X 2.24 3.16 3.18 Lost 1-2 -1.0
25/07/15 Brazil Serie A Grêmio - Sport Recife 1 1.54 3.76 6.13 Lost 1-1 -1.0

I make it +3.29 pts, which seems a lot of bets for so little return - as we well know. Grist for the mill though.

John
 
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