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Double Trouble

Here is a quick calc sheet for covering four possible outcomes between any two of your chosen teams; it can be adapted quite easily to put two tennis players (opponents) from the same match and cross them with one footy side with your draw and win odds. Keeping the bookies overound to an absolute minimum is a must with the two tennis players and of course whatever site(s) you use they must have both the footy and tennis match covered, it can be spread between bookies with the best odds - as a given. Small profits but this can pay if you can find good odds and good strike rate system.
I have not protected anything in the sheet so take whatever may be of use to you; any criticism welcome, let me know if it is working for you etc. Entry needed in sky blue cells only - self explanatory really.
Best keep ROI above 50% unless your SR can 'carry it'.

John
 

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  • 4 Way Dutch_Copy.xlsx
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Forgot to add: use =B6 (equals B6) in cells C19 and C21: and =B14 (equals B14) in cells D19 and D23 as I was playing about with different team options early, the cells will auto calculate with those instructions in place. Sorry to be so simplistic you'll probably know all that anyhow!

John
 
Scooter_Boy said:
I have not protected anything in the sheet so take whatever may be of use to you; any criticism welcome, let me know if it is working for you etc.
Click to expand...
Can I ask why you are using SUM in your formulas when it is redundant in all but one of your calculations?
 
I forgot to mention that the 2nd spreadsheet can be employed to good effect with the GG's; targeting Nov Hurdles and Nov Chases the Favourites and 2nd favourites can be combined in 4 doubles i.e. Race 1 Fav with Race 2 Fav, Race 1 Fav with Race 2 2nd Fav etc. Choose the right races with small fields and the method can reap decent rewards.
 
This evenings predictions were poor by any standard and to think that I was concerned about what appeared to be overly low Under 2.5 goals figure; Sweden - you are officially on probation from here on in! No knee jerk reactions though, I'll keep logging the data and see where it takes us.
I hope to put up a spreadsheet with trebles on it when I can find it and check it over, very useful as a 'banker' team(s) at odds on can be used and any number of combinations up to eight combinations of Win and Draw depending on odds (WWW to DDD), the draw element can 'carry' any treble but I'll keep it simple and put the fewer bets sheet up when I can dig it out.

John
 
Here is one of the treble bet calculators I made up to help me in my own betting together a couple of other options I'm sure it can be adapted for other methods.
I have found an old BRB cover bet calculator as well, I'll convert it into xls and post it up asap. Any mistakes/corrections etc. just drop me a message here. Ta.

John

P.S. I don't use Windows so please malware check these first; they have come from a Linux PC but converted into MS format so please exercise due care etc.
 

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  • Trebles.xlsx
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  • BRB Top 2 DW Cover Bets.xlsx
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TonyC TonyC Hi Tony.

I began to look at the Poisson distribution to try to find correct scores initially back in 2005-2006- and from that the most likely scores from the data it (Poisson) churns out, from that I (try) to convert that into straight win probabilties, Singles - the Double Chance i.e the 1X or 2X etc. in the screenshot I put up a moment ago. I attempt to use the data to predict Unders, mostly Under 2.5 goals as the odds are favourable, but saying that, Under 3.5 if the Strike Rate is high enough may also pay off. I didn't do much with the data for ages almost 10 years now until I looked at it again late last year, but had something up on the old forum for a while methinks about 5? years ago? Then put it down again (life!).
I have put up a couple of Half time CS scores doubles on this thread also. I am looking at the use of Asian Handicaps to see if I can get better value there but lately I have combined teams from low scoring leagues that have a correspondingly low score on the ratings and yes, combine them in correct score doubles, usually at Bet365. So in short, there is quite a bit going on at the moment, and I am cross referencing with any online data that could (hopefully) compliment what the ratings spew out.
Margins are so slim on Singles, and the hurdles placed by the industry so high, that I am looking for any advantage that the data can help me with.

ATB, John
edit typo
 
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I would add re: the Peruvian games that despite being top the league Sporting Municipal have a high unders to over ratio their opponents tonight are 4 over and 7 under; in the other game it is 4:7 to 4:8 so a reasonable chance of both games staying under 2.5 goals although a 3.5 goal under double is an option odds only 1.69 however.
re: my previous post; online data need not compliment any of mine, it sometimes helps if it conflicts, then I can ask more questions about how I gather the data, how it is treated and how I have interpreted it a bit like life, without getting too philosophical we often learn more from our mistakes, and all this is very much a work in progress.

John
 
TonyC TonyC , yes 2.5 goal market as priced up by the bookies is first and mine are in the last two columns labelled 'calculated odds' , they do seem to come out low; I think I know the reason why, but little I can do about it unless I attempt some form of 'normalising' of the data, I have this in mind to look at asap.

ATB, John
 
I have taken up a small interest in the two Peruvian matches this evening in FTCS doubles, nothing major of course as still running this through for data.
Doubles favour the home sides in seven doubles and a cover bet on the Under 2.5 goals.

John
 
First Peruvian game just finished at 4-0, one player sent off on 20 mins for a second bookable for Sport Loreto after just going a goal behind, you'd be forgiven for thinking as one of the Loreto players ' well it's going to be tough but we can still get a result if we get our heads down'; second player of Loreto red carded in the 40th min and concede a penalty in the 67th. We can spend hours going through the maths but sometimes well....
One game to go, perhaps a small chance of resistance from Ayacucho would'nt go amiss.
And those ruddy Swedes are at it again....Lol!

J
 
Cheers Tony, difficult results to comprehend.

The Swedish league games continue to fly in the face of conventional wisdom it appears; cannot get my head around how much both recent form and league form have been turned on their heads by the current crop of results - work to do there methinks.
Peru games a disappointment too; nothing one can do in those circumstances, at least Ayacucho had the good grace to hold out until the 86th minute before finally going under, it could have returned half stakes had they held on, but at least they had the decency to leave the field with 11 men and not 9 (Dep. Loreto please take note). :taunt:
I can look at the Brazilian Serie B games retrospectively as I hadn't changed the base information; this will help in letting me know if the problem lies with the method itself or whether it may be outliers that have tripped the predictions up lately.

Still early days but much more data collation required as we move closer to the new Euro season opening.

ATB, John
 
Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy

These calculators and a new set of ratings are made for each other :) let me get some more data and i will begin to post some examples.

Particular like a little modification ;) prices tighter of course but i like a collection before HT

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