• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

Double Trouble

footysystems footysystems
mandkay mandkay
tonyafc tonyafc

Thanks again for the encouragement guys. These will need filtering that's for sure, not sure how just yet but the losers take out a large chunk of potential profit going double result.
Pleased with the one away result. analysis. Also some big overs here. One thing to note is that the Argentine Prem B appears quite a competitive affair so maybe caution required there?
My O/U calculations may need a revsion too.
It seems that paying out on one half a completed CS is the norm for Bet365, I had not noticed this apart from the mentions early in this thread, they don't do it for my GG's I know that, bank therefore should be Ca. 19pts more but it tennds to get swallowed up the the overall betting bank as I do not keep separate records of footy and GG's and at just 10p/pt it's small beer except it was welcome after my losses on the GG's last two days!
John
 
Just did a qiuck check; going 1X on Gremio and D. Armenio would have saved 2pts and added a further 0.23 pts.
Maybe if the return when dutched is <0.4 the games could be left alone - thinking of SR required to B/E in this case.
edit: result +4.97 in much fewer bets - will forward test.

J
 
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Well by my calculations John your well in profit on your footie bets and
At this time of the season and the leagues that are live that is some achievement only one of my system bets runs from the start of the season the rest are still a few weeks away due to your success I'm looking into the leagues your betting on and I must say I found it a bit harder than the leagues I normally bet on well done.
 
Thanks again Tony, support from like-minded enthusiasts (and long suffering punters) is much appreciated.
On the Correct Scores FT I think that it's up a tad over 167 pts profit now.
I was thinking of starting to dabble with the DC's; the last time I checked the DC odds on sites could sometimes be less than dutching the two results separately so I'll check that as I go now too.
Based on recent DC's it 'should' be possible to compound these from a modest points bank also (usually I take 100 minimum - esp. with the GG's) as long as I can keep the SR, the downturns should be manageable and return up to a tenner average profit per day to start would be a great aim. All pie in sky/work in progress.....lol


J
 
A few that KO late afternoon. None that I can see combined odds of 1.40 or more atm. Key: Bookies Odds - Poisson Calculated odds (Italicised) - Bookies U/O - My Calculated U/O (Italicised)

26/07/15 1600 Brazil A Santos - Joinville 1X ----- 1.42 4.07 7.70 ----- 1.76 3.96 5.59 ----- 1.65/ 2.08 ----- 1.72 /2.38
26/07/15 1600 Brazil A Chapecoense - Fluminense 1X ----- 2.10 3.17 3.48 ----- 1.61 3.73 8.96 ----- 1.57/ 2.53 ----- 1.41 /3.44
26/07/15 1600 Arg Prem Nac Deportivo Santamarina - Central Córdob… 1X ----- 1.51 3.50 6.57 ----- 1.41 3.74 42.47 ----- 1.50/ 2.50 ----- 1.22 /5.48

John

I'll try and sort out the formatting as well.
 
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I use Linux so I think I may have to convert my Libre Office files into Excel then try and post them; please bear with me for now! Lol

26/07/15 1600 Arg B Metro Almagro - Almirante Brown 1X ------2.04 2.99 3.51 ------1.76 3.65 6.34 ------1.62 /2.55 ------1.49 /3.04
26/07/15 1600 Arg B Metro Flandria - Colegiales 1X ------2.13 2.86 3.44 ------2.91 2.56 3.75------ 1.44/ 2.88------ 1.19/ 6.37

None of these have been sorted other than a quick look at the percents Poisson throws at me.

John
 
I have broadband probs so will just post these up when I am able. I am aware I have the timings wrong on some as one match Pratense is already underway, sorry bout' that.

26/07/15 1600 Brazil A Santos - Joinville 1X
26/07/15 1600 Brazil A Chapecoense - Fluminense 1X
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A São Paulo - Cruzeiro 1X
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A Ponte Preta - Internacional 1X
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A Coritiba - Corinthians X2
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A Goiás - Flamengo X2
26/07/15 2330 Brazil A Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras X2
26/07/15 2000 Arg Primera Godoy Cruz - San Lorenzo X2
26/07/15 2000 Arg Primera Newell's Old Boys - Rosario Central 1X
26/07/15 2220 Arg Primera Quilmes - Racing Club X2
26/07/15 2315 Arg Primera Huracán - Estudiantes X2
26/07/15 2345 Arg Primera C Lanus - Defensa y Justicia 1X
26/07/15 1600 Arg Prem Nac Deportivo Santamarina - Central Córdob… 1X
26/07/15 1930 Arg Prem Nac Juventud Unida G. - Unión Mar del … 1X
26/07/15 2000 Arg Prem Nac Patronato - Sportivo Belgrano 1X
26/07/15 2030 Arg Prem Nac Douglas Haig - Gimnasia Jujuy X2
26/07/15 2100 Arg Prem Nac Guaraní A. Franco - Boca Unidos 1X
26/07/15 2200 Arg Prem Nac All Boys - Estudiantes d… 1X
26/07/15 1600 Arg B Metro Almagro - Almirante Brown 1X
26/07/15 1600 Arg B Metro Flandria - Colegiales 1X
26/07/15 1700 Arg B Metro Platense - Defensores de … X2
26/07/15 1800 Arg B Metro Tristán Suárez - Barracas Central 1X
 
26/07/15 1600 Brazil A Santos - Joinville 1X Won 2-0 +0.05
26/07/15 1600 Brazil A Chapecoense - Fluminense 1X Won 2-1 +0.26
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A São Paulo - Cruzeiro 1X Won 1-0 +0.24
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A Ponte Preta - Internacional 1X Won 0-0 +0.24
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A Coritiba - Corinthians X2 Draw 1-1 +0.48
26/07/15 2100 Brazil A Goiás - Flamengo X2 Won 0-1 +0.46
26/07/15 2330 Brazil A Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras X2 Won 1-4 +0.30
26/07/15 2000 Arg Primera Godoy Cruz - San Lorenzo X2 Draw 1-1 +0.3
26/07/15 2000 Arg Primera Newell's Old Boys - Rosario Central 1X Lost 0-1 -1.0
26/07/15 2220 Arg Primera Quilmes - Racing Club X2 Lost 2-1 -1.0
26/07/15 2315 Arg Primera Huracán - Estudiantes X2 Lost 1-0 -1.0
26/07/15 2345 Arg Primera C Lanus - Defensa y Justicia 1X Lost 0-1 -1.0
26/07/15 1600 Arg Prem Nac Deportivo Santamarina - Central Córdob… 1X Draw 2-2 +0.05
26/07/15 1930 Arg Prem Nac Juventud Unida G. - Unión Mar del … 1X Won 2-1 +0.17
26/07/15 2000 Arg Prem Nac Patronato - Sportivo Belgrano 1X Won 3-0 +0.00
26/07/15 2030 Arg Prem Nac Douglas Haig - Gimnasia Jujuy X2 Lost 1-0 -1.0
26/07/15 2100 Arg Prem Nac Guaraní A. Franco - Boca Unidos 1X Won 2-0 +0.27
26/07/15 2200 Arg Prem Nac All Boys - Estudiantes d… 1X Lost 0-2 -1.0
26/07/15 1600 Arg B Metro Almagro - Almirante Brown 1X Won 1-0 +0.21
26/07/15 1600 Arg B Metro Flandria - Colegiales 1X Lost 0-1 -1.0
26/07/15 1700 Arg B Metro Platense - Defensores de … X2 Lost 4-3 -1.0
26/07/15 1800 Arg B Metro Tristán Suárez - Barracas Central 1X Won 2-0 +0.25

A difficult day yesterday on several fronts, it would probably not have affected the three games where over 0.4 pts could be gained from the DC predictions and that would have been a slight loss on the day of 0.06pts. Other analyses were a little rushed and interrupted with broadband issues, visitations and in all truth I couldn't have recommended any that I wouldn't be entirely happy that I would have my own money on myself. Big Sunday programmes might not be on unless I can get some of the work completed Saturday evenings which, I suppose may be the obvious solution.
Nevertheless, looking for bets where we stand a chance with odds and SR may be the way to go; the bookies tuck up over 80%+ of the book in the Favourite and the Draw on these games and looking for opportunities amongst these for the others where there is going to be value is going to be the challenge.

ATB, John

I have the Swedish leagues newly updated and there are a couple of games there tonight along with a small number from S. America so I will pur something up for these' whatever the numbers put out; a bit later.
 
Here are today's set. I was dithering over Djurgarden's score as previously I have sometimes assigned opposite predictions to them but have decided to place a cut off point for Away predictions a bit higher and attempt to find a close cut off point from 1X to X2.
The data has thrown up some interesting conflicts in predicted U/O and as these leagues are traditionally a bit more free scoring than mu usual hunting grounds it'll be interesting to see the outcomes; it may be my calcs require adjustment.


John
 

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Thanks John I'm going to have a small dabble on the unders using your figs let's cast the dice and see where they land.good luck with your
selections.
 
tonyafc tonyafc Hi Tony, I think that the league average goals is around 2.65 for the top league and 2.57 for the 2nd division. The two in the top league have roughly a 50:50 split between Unders and Overs this season (7:9), in fact; only Hacken are significantly below 50% Unders. In the Superettan the situation is almost identical; both Brom and Sirius have 7:9 U/O so care required etc.
I also have a spreadsheet for WDW, I purchased it years ago when a member of Bookiesrbust if anyone remembers them; I think one guy may have gone on to form Gruss software, but I could be wrong.
I have another I made up myself to be able to include the DD with the WW, WD and DW that I will try to upload both if someone can give me a clue how go about this. It can be used quite sneakily in mixing sports up to guarantee a win if one other of one's footy teams either draws or wins

John
 
I am fascinated with the unders/overs market, but I can never seem to crack it. Have just finished reading an interesting report about choosing games for the 2.5 market. Makes interesting reading. I'll be keeping an eye on this thread.
 
Thanks Lee, I couldn't get the forum uploader to recognise the .ods format so I converted it into xlsx which must be the latest MS Excel version, hope it still works as it's a handy little tool to have even though most of you will have made your own versions up I suspect.
 

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TonyC TonyC welcome Tony, always good to get fresh blood in being a new boy myself I think that you'll find the natives friendly, as there are a small but enthusiastic band of brothers interested in all things footy. I am data gathering with these at the moment so caution is well advised; I'll be cross referencing my data with other sites and other members also wherever possible.

ATB, John
 
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