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Double Trouble

ABC - Santa Cruz: The calculated fair odds for this match are a bit haywire, due to a combination of factors, not least ABC's dreadful home record and also Serie B sides poor away records Incl. for S. Cruz so best look to the BTTS data which seems to indicate either a close low score tie or a narrow home win with both sides scoring, although I feel it unlikely that ABC could manage two goals in one game 0-0 or 1-0 on the figures but I wouldn't be surprised at a narrow away win either: one to swerve anyhow.

CRB - Ceará: There's a 15 goal difference between the sides; at around 0.5 goals scored away and shipping 1.6+ Ceara could be in trouble here. Home win, probably to nil.

Mogi Mirim - Oeste Close given Mogi's worst home record in the league 0-0 or 0-1.

Nautico - Sampaio Correa: Best value odds on paper and given Sampaio's high league position they have a quite poor away record. Nautico for me .

Macae - Luverdense. The away side could shade this one in spite of the raw P figures suggesting otherwise. Another close game and a goal either way could settle it. Not a clear enough set of data to warrant a bet on this match.
Parana - Bahia. Bahia are well in touch at the top of the league but similarly to Sampaio their away stats are pretty unexciting; form wise both are going well short term, another close encounter. 1-1 or a goal either way.
Vitoria - Botafogo RJ. It's practically the home form of Brazil's B teams that determine league position but in this case Botofogo have the best away record although it's certainly nothing to write home about. Lying 2nd and top respectively I expect a tight match again , although Vitoria's goals do tend to fly in when they are on song at home and they could take this game to nil. Hard to call 1-0, 1-1 or 2-1.

I wouldn't play many of these games tonight in truth excepting Nautico straight win maybe over the CRB match.

J
 
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You can tell an odd set of results when even the bookies only get one correct out of six attempts. There were some really bonkers results last night; one of them from a team with one of the poorest home results profile, with a win albeit with the assistance of a sending off at 0-1 (Ceara).
I suppose I could have had three correct scores right Mogi Mirim, Vitoria and a nod to Parana maybe but it would have taken a couple of bets to get some return on the CS in the latter and dutching them @ Ca. 6.0 and 6.50 would have meant betting at half the odds - and when we do that, in the long term we have to effectively double the SR to keep the same ROI as betting just the one CS - which is just difficult at times, and virtually impossible at other times : )

Nautico get held at home and having to come from behind too.
Luverdense get the win they probably deserve after a few good performances away recently where thay have come away with little (draws and late winners against them).

Results_2015-09-05.png

ATB, J
 
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Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy , Terrible also last night with my picks from Brazil, 3 selections 3 losses, looking back through my recent records its now a league for the chop, as you mentioned before, distance plays a factor, plus also imo the amount of red cards and the games come thick and fast, i know they have pretty large squads but the fixture list is relentless.
 
Sorry to hear that Kev, I think that I'll be taking your route and earmarking some leagues for avoidance too. It's hard to find a clear path through the mire of S. American footy, I'm pretty sure there are some angles to be exploited mandkay mandkay , but I don't yet have any confidence in the 2nd tier S. American leagues for the CSFT doubles that I thought might be there a few weeks ago. The straight CS picks might have been ok last night about + 6pts I believe, but I don't have full confidence in them to be truthfull.
I have a new line of anlysis so maybe that will help (couldn't apply it last evening for various reasons, the main one being the inability to pass all filters!)

Hope the others are going better for you and you can show a profit on those instead!


ATB, J
p.s. apologies for not replying to you pm; had a few things on the to-do lists lately!
 
Only a heads up for Serie B tonight I feel as my Beta testing of these leagues have yet to show any clear cut path forward as I had my heart set on the CSFT's as a good profit maker here. Although saying that, they haven't been terrible and I have backed and won a bit on them not enough though to warrant a full blown crack at them Live, that and I tend to bet rather conservatively.Serie B_2015-09-08.png
The 'heavy' mob all appear to be at home in this round hence a lot of confidence in the figures for home wins. I will especially be interested in Botofogo's game as it has managed a strong 10.0+ figure on a trial ranking method, it also comes out top on a Linear Regression model I have had lying about for about 10 years but not investigated fully for the most part of that time. The odds are not really all that favourable as a couple of others are though. Ideally odds of 1.80 would be a fair representation but only 1.57 is on offer I think, this could be used as a banker though perhaps? Anyhow, we'll see how these fare tonight.

ATB, J
 
I have had a small punt on Botofogo and on Deportes Tolimo (Columbian Primera). I have had the Columbian Prem up and ready since the start of the season but it had got lost in the chaos that passes as my Poisson folder.

Anyhow, I have done the pair in both a small double and as a 1X as both fit in with a primary filter even though I have yet to update the Primera spreadsheet for P it looks a nailed on qualifier.


So:
Botofogo and Deportes Tolima (play tomorrow) win double and DC 1pt each.
Both on Ladcrooks the win double @ 3.96
and DC double @ Ca. 1.58



BOL, J
 
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mandkay mandkay , thanks Kev actually I thought it was a 'penalty kick' so to speak-; as it turns out Botofogo went behind in the 14th minute and didn't get level until the 70th or so The winner arrived with three minutes of normal time remaining, this is a really puzzling league for sure. If I had had large stakes on these I would have been having kittens by then I think.

tonyafc tonyafc; hopefully tiny stakes like me Tony. I am sorting out a little spreadsheet atm, hopefully to add extra reassurance on the second match although not full cover by any means but at a cost of reducing some potential profit from the Win-Win double. Will try to get my head around it asap.



ATB, J
 
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Scooter_Boy said:
mandkay mandkay , thanks Kev actually I thought it was a 'penalty kick' so to speak-; as it turns out Botofogo went behind in the 14th minute and didn't get level until the 70th or so The winner arrived with three minutes of normal time remaining, this is a really puzzling league for sure. If I had had large stakes on these I would have been having kittens by then I think.

tonyafc tonyafc; hopefully tiny stakes like me Tony. I am sorting out a little spreadsheet atm, hopefully to add extra reassurance on the second match although not full cover by any means but at a cost of reducing some potential profit from the Win-Win double. Will try to get my head around it asap.



ATB, J
Click to expand...

John, the x2 is available at a pretty decent 1.91
 
Ta mandkay mandkay , I was thinking along those lines, but as usual, I'm complicating matters beyond all reason! I was thinking of covering the 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 CS with each player from the same tennis match as the multipliers are so large. I have the spreadsheet now but it's incredibly messy even by my standards, but it works - with six doubles required! Stakes are tiny. :handgestures-thumbup:
Profits not too badly affected but all lose of course with a 0-3 or 1-3 etc. Could be a go-er on larger stakes where it gets to squeaky bum time though. I will send it for your amusement perusal when completed. :)
 
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Undone by a 89th minute equaliser last night and only the 1X as a consolation recovery bet; as I mentioned to Kev a while ago: 'it's like herding cats'. No damage done: swings and roundabouts spring to mind considering the 87th minute winner the evening before, and plans on the horizon for a more sophisticated (read madcap) method of retaining stakes when things go awry. Off to sunnier climes soon and maybe a visit to better quality football this weekend as I take a look at the National league for any possible avenue for P.


J
 
Lots today from Europe which pass the prelim filters but little data to hand to confirm through Poisson analyses. The biggest heads up were the odds as I probably wouldn't have been keen to take any of them on at the prices which I noted. For the record among them were:
Bayer Leverkausen 1.25
Juve 1.36
Forest Green 1.30
Basel 1.39
Marseilles 1.48
(can't be having any these at the odds and form not well enough established yet)


J
 
A miserable showing from Leverkausen; getting turned over by Damstadt of all teams 0-1, mind bogglingly bad; finished top four last season getting beaten by a promoted side. Class will out - I hope.
Juve need a late penalty to gain a draw at home; last season P 19, W 16, D 3 L 0, better start pulling their socks up as they have already lost their first home game to Udinese just 1 point now from 3 matches for Juve..
Basel limp past St Gallen 2-1
Forest Green do the business over Southport 2-1
Marseilles play tomorrow.

Taken at these short odds the strike rate would need to be up around 65-70% to break even, that's too much pressure on a system so best look for better value selections.

J
 
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Was reading this Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy and thought of this thread, don't know if its of much use or not??

a cross market arbitrage bet placed across multiple markets would look something like this:
Valencia vs Villareal
Back correct score 0-0 (unibet) @ 10/1 – staking £9.81 for a potential return of £107.91
Back Valencia to score over 0.5 goals (bet365) @ 3/10 – staking £83 for a potential return of £107.90
Back Villareal to win to nil (sportingbet) @ 14/1 – staking £7.19 for a potential return of £107.85

As we can see from this example, three bets, on three different markets, at three separate bookmakers have been placed. Only one of these outcomes can be a winner; however, by choosing such bets, at such prices, the punter guarantees a profit regardless of the match result.

If match ends as a 0-0 draw, the first bet will be a winner. If Valencia score one goal or more then the second bet will be a winning one, and lastly, if Villareal win the game to nil, the third bet will be a winner.
 
D djb38 Thanks David; that's essentially thinking right along the lines of what I have been trying with the (over) complicated spreadsheets I've been distributing :)
I am still working on them too. As you are aware I'm trying to cover as many bases as possible whilst using the power of the multiplier. I have been a bit distracted this week but I have managed a bit of research, the spreadsheets probably won't be any less complicated is the downside to all of this :)


J
 
I can't resist poking my nose into the Bundesliga early this season; I'm hoping Ausburg's current form can cancel out Hanover's and that Spartak's low scoring home form can continue too.
2015-09-20.png
FTCS double with the usual format favouring the home side. Slipping in a 1-0, 0-1 as a extra CS plus the cover bet of the U 2.5 goal double. Usual pitiful stakes :)
A total of 12 pts staked split 7 - 5

J
 
I can't complain as the U 2.5 turned the bet into a 2.40 points profit on the day; however Spartak's resereve side went down 1-0 at home and Ausburg did their best to spoil the party getting a quick penalty after breaking their duck for goals and doubling their home goal tally for the season just three minutes later. Having not scored at home before yesterday I thought that they might struggle against a mediocre Hanover side searching for goals themselves however - put 'two strugglers' together and I have to hang on for the cover bet for 60 minutes....
Hopefully better to come.
As I'm only playing for small amounts (big rewards if the CS comes in though) the method is the most important aspect to get right not overall profits yet - but it's a bonus. Still around 145 pts up overall (calced as all bets on this thread) with enforced breaks for International and Euro action waiting for Euro leagues to gather momentum now.


J
 
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