toeten
Yearling
TheBluesBrother Have you got MASHAAN running a big figure compared to its handicap rating at Lingfield on Friday?
Tom
Compiling Speed figures.
- Thread starter TheBluesBrother
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TheBluesBrother Have you got MASHAAN running a big figure compared to its handicap rating at Lingfield on Friday?
Tom
toeten
Yearling
Sorry I've just checked the file you uploaded and you have it running 16lbs higher I think it is, the same as me (I might have it as 15lbs)
Have you got MASHAAN running a big figure compared to its handicap rating at Lingfield on Friday?
Tom
It seems as though with my speed figures I end up at ratings similar to your final handicap ratings, I'm not sure why this is.
I have different inputs to you but seems as though I'm getting to a similar conclusion, which I'm happy with!
Tom
TheBluesBrother
Dam
toeten
Yearling
So will Mashaan be a bet for you next time out? I know you’ll add it to your tracker but then what would you do with it next time it runs?
Tom
TheBluesBrother
Dam
doomster
Dam
I think
TheBluesBrother had Mashaan well rated for his previous two races for different trainers. No surprise it was backed from 14/1 into 7/2 against a strongly backed fav.
TheBluesBrother had Mashaan well rated for his previous two races for different trainers. No surprise it was backed from 14/1 into 7/2 against a strongly backed fav.
AustinDillon75
Colt
I've gone again now for Aintree since 2013, I've also now got seperate going allowances for the chase and hurdle courses and seperate standard times for the National Course vs Mildmay. Again, Sprinter Sacre leads the way with the chase runs. It seems like anything 170+ would be gold cup standard. Argocat did run out of his skin for the 173 rating, that was a really strong field and he mixed it finishing just 3 length behind the winner.
Last years Novice Chasers Shishkin and Chantry House gave absolutely outstanding performances both achieving 164.
Here are your hurdlers. Its all the way back to 2013 for the best Novice, My Tent or Yours (158)
And the bumpers. Somewhere near what I want now, so will roll it out to all courses.
Each of these standards assume a 140 horse across the board, carrying 11 stone.
Last years Novice Chasers Shishkin and Chantry House gave absolutely outstanding performances both achieving 164.
Here are your hurdlers. Its all the way back to 2013 for the best Novice, My Tent or Yours (158)
And the bumpers. Somewhere near what I want now, so will roll it out to all courses.
Each of these standards assume a 140 horse across the board, carrying 11 stone.
toeten
Yearling
TheBluesBrother Afternoon Mike, What tracker do you use? I know there's a lot around and wondered what the best one to use would be.
Also, if something runs above its handicap rating and gets put in to your tracker, is there an amount of runs you give the horse to reproduce that handicap figure if say it disappointed next time out?
Cheers,
Tom
TheBluesBrother
Dam
toeten
Yearling
Compiling ratings now with my own going allowances it looks as though there is lots of horses winning next time out after running above their handicap figure, excited to see how I get on.
Thanks for all your help,
Tom
toeten
Yearling
TheBluesBrother What do you make of the 5:09 Southwell tomorrow?
Had the Jenny Run race as a quick time with a lot running over handicap figure and 4/5 of them re-opposing again tomorrow.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
This race is framed as a class 6 more a class 7 in my book, Visitant would be my pick drawn well in (2).
Mike.
toeten
Yearling
How do you come to the conclusion it’s a class 7 rather than a class 6?
Would you be looking for something that runs a class higher compared to what you believe the class of the race is?
Thanks again,
Tom
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Looking at Visitant current class ceiling, add the OR 48 + RPR 73 = 121, reading across my class par sheet shows that his OR ceiling to a mark of 56, which is towards the top of my class 7 figures.
Today he is running off a mark of 48 with a 5lb claimer on board...
Mike.
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toeten
Yearling
Sorry Mike,
Been out all day and only just got home to reply to you.
So where would your speed figures/handicap figures come into play then if you are judging Visitant off OR and RPR?
TheBluesBrother
Dam
As I have already stated I would only use The OR and RPR together to see what the class ceiling of a horse was, betting wise I would only use speed figures, the speed figures have already got any rail movements, going allowances etc factored in.
With regard to the performance of Visitant, I thought the Jockey was very easy on him, broke well and he was eased to the back, possibly he didn't get the trip.
Mike.
toeten
Yearling
In the first today at Wolverhampton, Colinton obviously has a massive chance after winning by 5 1/2L last time out, could improve again for the step up in trip but I don't think his last race was great form and only had him running to 48. Kittens Dream ran really well last time out over the extended 2 miles at Southwell earning a figure of 66 for me (+6lbs) but only managed 54 on penultimate start over this distance. The 4th behind Prince Abu 4 starts ago again over the extended 2 miles when running to 71 (+9lbs) makes me think that maybe that distance might suit him better?
Purple Power looks like my idea of the winner in the second race, although only ran to 46 last time out, that was over 7f and drops back to 6f where ran to 62 (+8lbs) on penultimate start. Of the others, Ustath ran well last time out running to 58 (+2lbs) and so did Rockley Point 57 (+15lbs) although that was over 5f and back up to 6f today. Amazing Amaya looks the best handicapped horse in the race although she disappointed last time but her two races before that when running 62 (+8lbs) and 71 (+17lbs) but again both those races were over the minimum trip.
Vitesse Du Son also looks to have a great chance down in trip with cheekpieces on for first time and new in form stable after running 57 (+11lbs) and 54 (+8lbs) over 7f in last two starts. You're Cool ran some massive figures the last twice running to 69 (+14lbs) and 64 (+12lbs) on last two starts but they were over 5f and up to 6f today. Glorious Charmer and TommyTwoHoots will probably be there abouts and Clashaniska would be interesting back up to 7f.
In the 7:15, although I only have compiled form for 2022 so far, Conducive looks to be my highest rated with 52 but is running off 60 today.
For the last race, like I said I only have 2022 form and Government tops that, running to 61 last time out even though goes handicapping today off a mark of 76.
What's your thoughts on today?
Tom
Purple Power looks like my idea of the winner in the second race, although only ran to 46 last time out, that was over 7f and drops back to 6f where ran to 62 (+8lbs) on penultimate start. Of the others, Ustath ran well last time out running to 58 (+2lbs) and so did Rockley Point 57 (+15lbs) although that was over 5f and back up to 6f today. Amazing Amaya looks the best handicapped horse in the race although she disappointed last time but her two races before that when running 62 (+8lbs) and 71 (+17lbs) but again both those races were over the minimum trip.
Vitesse Du Son also looks to have a great chance down in trip with cheekpieces on for first time and new in form stable after running 57 (+11lbs) and 54 (+8lbs) over 7f in last two starts. You're Cool ran some massive figures the last twice running to 69 (+14lbs) and 64 (+12lbs) on last two starts but they were over 5f and up to 6f today. Glorious Charmer and TommyTwoHoots will probably be there abouts and Clashaniska would be interesting back up to 7f.
In the 7:15, although I only have compiled form for 2022 so far, Conducive looks to be my highest rated with 52 but is running off 60 today.
For the last race, like I said I only have 2022 form and Government tops that, running to 61 last time out even though goes handicapping today off a mark of 76.
What's your thoughts on today?
Tom
toeten
Yearling
Hugh Taylor has tipped up Conducive and You're Cool so guess I must be on the right sort of line!
Tom
toeten
Yearling
What do you think of MASHAAN today? Soyounique also ran above mark for the run behind Mashaan last time out and tops my ratings for the 3rd at Lingfield, 3 starts ago over 6f.