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Compiling Speed figures.

tomowenevans said:
Just to make sure, the SF on the far right is the figure for the race and then you'd adjust this figure up or down depending on the weight above or below 11st they carry on the day?
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I don't adjust my speed figures for future weight rises, if you want the handicap figures add 17lbs to the speed figures on the flat and 28lbs for the National Hunt.

For all the going allowances and adjustments for example, rail movements, they are packed in a RAR file, to unpack use WinRaR of the free utility 7-zip.

Speed Figures.rar

drive.google.com drive.google.com

Mike.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
I don't adjust my speed figures for future weight rises, if you want the handicap figures add 17lbs to the speed figures on the flat and 28lbs for the National Hunt.

For all the going allowances and adjustments for example, rail movements, they are packed in a RAR file, to unpack use WinRaR of the free utility 7-zip.

Speed Figures.rar

drive.google.com drive.google.com

Mike.
Click to expand...
So the exact speed figure is what you'll take forward? If Horse A and Horse B meet and both run to 120. Then they meet again and Horse A is 5lbs lower at the weights and Horse B is the same, you wouldn't make Horse A 125 and Horse B still 120?

The speed figure you give a horse will stay the exact same whatever weight is carried?

Tom
 
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tomowenevans said:
The speed figure you give a horse will stay the exact same whatever weight is carried?
Click to expand...
Didn't I just state that!

If you need to compare 2 horses, using the drop-down filter in column I on the excel sheets, copy the names into a notepad file to remove the formatting, then copy and paste into the search box, this will bring up all the speed figures for said named horses, you will then see who is the classier of the 2.

SNIP.PNG

Mike.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
Didn't I just state that!

If you need to compare 2 horses, using the drop-down filter in column I on the excel sheets, copy the names into a notepad file to remove the formatting, then copy and paste into the search box, this will bring up all the speed figures for said named horses, you will then see who is the classier of the 2.

View attachment 113154

Mike.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry I don't mean to annoy you with my stupidity. Just want to make sure.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
Technically it doesn't.

One of the first things Dave Edwards asked me years ago, how do you handle amateur races on the flat where a jockey wins carrying 11-6, i replied I have a cut off point at 10-0 and 8-0, so I would rate the horse with 11-6 as only carrying 10-0, and likewise when they carry 7-7, why this works I have no idea.

I was listening to a podcast with Hugh Taylor, who also mentioned this problem, he stated that weight's carried over 10-0 he didn't think were linear.
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Hi Mike, TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother

Just come across this post re-reading the thread.

In this situation would you just add 14lbs to the speed figure if the weight carried for the horse was over 10st, input the lbs per length and calculate as normal?

Cheers,

Tom
 
TheBluesBrother said:
For the flat, I have two cut-off points 10-0 and 8-0, so if a horse carries 11-2 it is rated as only carrying 10-0, on the jumps it is 12-0 and 10-0.

Mike.
Click to expand...

Yep sorry, didn't explain myself well enough.

If a horse was carrying 11-2 then you'd be adding 30lbs to it's speed figure. By stopping at 10-0, the most you will add to a figure will be 14lbs, whatever weight over 10-0 they carry.

Tom
 
tomowenevans said:
If a horse was carrying 11-2 then you'd be adding 30lbs to it's speed figure. By stopping at 10-0, the most you will add to a figure will be 14lbs, whatever weight over 10-0 they carry.
Click to expand...
I don't rate horses over 10-0, so you only add 14lbs, not 30lbs as the rating will end up totally out of skew.

I was speaking to Dave Edwards "Top Speed" on the phone and the first question he asked me " how do I rate Amateur races carrying big weights", I said I stop at 10-0, the same as he does.

Mike.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
I don't rate horses over 10-0, so you only add 14lbs, not 30lbs as the rating will end up totally out of skew.

I was speaking to Dave Edwards "Top Speed" on the phone and the first question he asked me " how do I rate Amateur races carrying big weights", I said I stop at 10-0, the same as he does.

Mike.
Click to expand...

Yep! I've got you!

Cheers,

Tom
 
I've been working on figures for National Hunt racing now and with the Festival in mind, have taken the last 9 years worth of Cheltenham performances. This isn't going to produce any nuggets, after all, the best horses do generally win the best races.
Here are the best chase performances. What is notable is that Menorah's second to Champion Court in the 2013 Silver Trophy comes out as the best handicap performance, carrying 11st 10lb to a handicap rating of 171. Beating Frodon who had 169 and 168 performances.

1646405656792.png

The missing Gold Cup winners are Coneygree (166) RPR 178, Sizing John (164) RPR 171 and Lord Windermere (162) RPR 168.
Un De Sceaux (2015) produced the best novice chasing performance of 164, 1lb ahead of Shishkin's effort last year (163).

Here are the best hurdling performances.
1646406206017.png
Honeysuckle isn't in this list for the simple reason she gets a 7lb allowance in her win. She is the next cab off the rank though and if I added 7lb she would have had a 170.

The best handicap performance is a 161 by The New One, when 4th in the 2017 Greatwood. The best novice hurdler is Appreciate It with his 160 in last season's Supreme Novices.

Here are the best bumper performances. All of them in the Champion Bumper. My best Cheltenham non Grade 1 bumper is Timeforatune, last November, he produced a 109.

1646406573877.png
If there is a query over any Cheltenham performance since 2013, I am happy to offer a number.
 
Some of you will have seen there a going allowance of -96 for the 26 January 2013 race won by Sprinter Sacre - the actual going allowance is -91 as per the table below. The going would have been mental that day, Sprinter's win was the Clarence House re-routed from Ascot.

Here are that day's winning times and comparison to my standard.

1646426177943.png

There is still the issue of getting the separate going allowance for the hurdles / chase courses, which I take on board, but I've got these figures for that day at least for the time being.

To think that for several races the going was well over 1 second per furlong below standard, imagine Rolling Star being something like 8.5 seconds below standard in a five furlong sprint somewhere, tells you everything and explains how prior to going adjustment his speed figure is 29. Once adjusted to the day's allowance it all looks a bit more plausible, and then we finish by completing the handicap marks for each.

Cape Tribulation ran a cracking race, seeing off wonderful old Imperial Commander despite conceding 6lbs to him.

These were the performances on which my going allowance was based, its an impossible to explain Excel formula that takes only horses finishing within a certain distance of the winner who's performance appears somewhere close to the average for the meeting. The race won by Vino Griego basically fell apart at the seams and that's part of the reason it doesn't contribute to the overall meeting allowance (though if one took the fastest three races it would be one of them thanks to him and not thanks to the second horse who trailed in 19 lengths behind).

1646426574210.png
 
TheBluesBrother said:
I have a basic video on youtube which explains how I use excel.


For these actual files and a years worth going allowances and speed figures, unhide column "N" to view raw ratings.

Code: 
 http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps
Click to expand...
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother do you still use the same methods/steps as in this video to work out the GA or has your method changed slightly over the years?

Tom
 
tomowenevans said:
@
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother do you still use the same methods/steps as in this video to work out the GA or has your method changed slightly over the years?
Click to expand...
No, when I started compiling speed figures back in 2010 that method was purely basic, you know I now make use of constants i.e -8, -12, and -12 etc.

Mike.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
On a 8 race card, I might use the 4 fastest times, usually it will be the fastest 3, there are occasions I work with the fastest 2, the methods I use are unique to me, with my experience I can look at the going allowances and adjust to suit.

The problems start when I have to use 2 going allowances, for example on the flat the round course might be slower than the straight course, there are no shortcuts, it all comes down to experience, it took me about 2 years just to understand going allowances.

Mike.
Click to expand...
How come you average the best 3/4 times rather than just averaging all the winners on the card?

Thanks, Tom
 
tomowenevans said:
I’m sorry, what do you mean by the constants?
Click to expand...
The poundage adjustments i.e -8, -12, -28.

cons.png

tomowenevans said:
How come you average the best 3/4 times rather than just averaging all the winners on the card?
Click to expand...
Because most of the races are not run at a true pace, can you imagine trying to compile going allowances when the winners don't even earn speed figures?

Mike.
 
Morning guys,

Does anyone know of anywhere where you can get hold of course results over a year or longer with the class and time etc?

May not be anywhere specific, but asking on the off chance!

Cheers,

Tom
 
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