Not sure whether this post belongs here but as it is about speed ratings I think it may offer something that few punters do. As we all work hard to produce accurate ratings the next step really should be trying to guesstimate what the “value” price should be. Of course any top rated horse that is not the favourite usually offers a little value but I found this article on Betfair Betting from around 2011 and calculated a race yesterday. Voila a winner at 11/4 that should have been Evens on the ratings. I don’t expect them all to win obviously but this method is a very good way of converting ratings to odds. I am not sure whether this is copyright but I wouldn’t think so as the author Simon Rowlands requests any comments or suggestions to this method. Anyway make of it what you will.
Create your own spreadsheet using the following instructions: Insert values in green-coloured fields, starting with ratings in A4:A10 (or further down if a bigger field is required).
Insert "power" value in Cell A2 (this will vary for different types of races).
[The default of 0.865 was the optimum least-squares value taken from comparing Timeform ratings with Betfair SPs for a representative sample of Flat racing from last week, but those values varied from 0.775 (handicap) to 0.9575 (Group 2)].
Cell B4 is: =(MAX($A$4:$A$10))-A4, then copy down
Cell C4 is: =(POWER($A$2, B4)), then copy down
Cell C2 is: =SUM(C4:C10)
Cell D4 is: =(C4*100)/$C$2, then copy down
Cell E4 is: =100/E4
Insert "confidence" value by-horse, depending on the confidence you feel in that horse's rating (0.167 is a reasonable default).
Cell H4 (to-back price) is: =100/(D4/(1+F4)), then copy down
Cell I4 (to-lay price) is: =100/(D4*(1+F4)), then copy down
You can tie in Columns H and I to Betfair prices by inserting a look-up to the Betfair odds ladder on a separate tab.
, as I feel he was unlucky in the Diamond Jubilee and underexposed. I had him rated 115 for that but last year he recorded a 119 at Goodwood. As I have Golden Horde on 116 with Golden Hordes 6lb weight allowance there is only 3 lbs difference but I am not a weight man, so at the prices it has to be KHAADEM who is currently 11.00 on Betfair which I feel is overpriced. I have had a small saver on Golden Horde. I have no idea about the draw on softish ground but the winners over the last ten years have come from low and high. I think it will dry out a bit overnight and in the morning as sunshine is forecast. The ground at Newmarket drains fairly quickly. He has won on Good to Soft but well stuffed on soft and heavy but that was September and October ground. So as always, fingers crossed.