Compiling Speed figures.

[TheBluesBrother]

TBB, noticed that yoursobeautiful who you mentioned earlier this week goes in the 5-15 Naas, priced at 10/1. The money horse in that race is Brunelle 22/1 down to 9/1, is there some reason for this or is it just a plain old gamble?

You'resobeautiful is taking a big step up in class, the connections are chasing black type for her, why anybody is backing Brunelle is a mystery especially as Colin Keane is on the other stable runner Nurse Barbara.

Speed figure wise the one to be on is the favourite Punita Arora (72), You'resobeautiful (64) should run into a place.

Mike.

 

[Outlander]

It amazes me that bookies restrict accounts and ban people you can dissect things to the millisecond but there are plenty of Nando Parada and Spirit Of Sisra’s out there.

 

[Cashelman]

Great spot B Bertie123 I need to take copy and paste lessons from a 5 year old!! here is my revised list for the Coventry

Horse	Total
Qaader (IRE)	87
Talbot (IRE)	87
Army Of India (IRE)	83
Science (IRE)	83
Lauded	80
Creative Force (IRE)	78
Painless Potter (IRE)	78
Choritzo	77
Thunder Of Niagara (IRE)	76
Admiral Nelson	74
Igotatext (IRE)	72
Saeiqa	72
Dark Lion (IRE)	69
Existent	67
Nando Parrado	61

Back to Earth with a bang bottom rated beats top rated!!!

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I am just waiting to see what bollocks "Top Speed" comes up with, he should manage to get at least 3 speed figures from the meeting, if only they had somebody at the Post that understands the shit that is going on, Tipperary yesterday was the worst example of race distances + times I have ever seen.

O Outlander davejb

74 pounds difference in TS Tipperary going allowances, there was me complaining about the RP standard times.



Mike.

 

[Outlander]

O Outlander davejb

74 pounds difference in TS Tipperary going allowances, there was me complaining about the RP standard times.

View attachment 85162

Mike.

It is ridiculous , fair enough compiling really accurate standard times is an incredibly difficult task(even more so in Ireland), but how can he carry on with these standards at Tipperary.
There really is no correct answer but you can see from adjusted winning times in last 3 years on good or good to firm that there is a gaping disconnect between the RP standard time for 5f and the rest of the distances. Anyone can see they don't make sense.

yards	1100​	1640​	1980​	2740​
	55.93​	92.27​	113.08​	157.40​
	56.60​	92.56​	113.19​	158.50​
	56.64​	92.78​	113.85​	159.57​
	56.92​	92.91​	114.54​	160.06​
	57.27​	92.98​	114.80​	161.51​
	57.47​	93.91​	115.55​	161.56​
	57.56​	93.98​	115.97​	161.58​
	57.68​	94.15​	116.11​	161.88​
	57.68​	94.33​	116.65​	162.09​
	57.75​	94.41​	117.47​	162.48​
	57.75​	94.49​	117.62​	166.99​
	57.88​	94.80​	120.36​
	57.91​	94.85​
	57.93​	94.86​
	57.98​	95.17​
	58.00​	95.17​
	58.15​	95.88​
	58.26​	95.88​
	58.42​	96.14​
	58.52​	96.91​
	58.55​	96.95​
	58.60​	97.00​
5thpercentile	56.60​	92.57​	113.14​	157.95​
15thpercentile	56.97​	92.92​	113.61​	159.03​
25thpercentile	57.42​	93.68​	114.02​	159.57​
median	57.82​	94.64​	115.76​	161.56​
average	57.70​	94.65​	115.76​	161.24​
RP	57.50​	89​	109​	154​

 

[davejb]

The nonsense that was Tipperary yesterday was readily apparent, as you point out Mike TheBluesBrother - like you I fixed the problem by using O Outlander standard times for the track.... using RP standards I found the course splitting into 5f and the rest, with similar allowances to Topspeed, which is clearly absolute drivel.

Good job O Outlander

 

[Paceman]

O Outlander TheBluesBrother davejb

Leaving aside the validity of the RP standards, I suspect the official time of the first race at Tipperary is incorrect. 59.1 looks far more likely to be correct having timed it several times.

 

[Bertie123]

Back to Earth with a bang bottom rated beats top rated!!!

Ha the joy of racing !,

 

[Bertie123]

2:25	Alpine Star	121	1m	1m 42.21s 12.83s	+3.21s +0.40s	110	Gd-Sft	Gd-Sft	-0.44s/f
3:00	Palace Pier	124	1m	1m 42.38s 12.85s	+3.38s +0.42s	108	Gd-Sft	Gd-Sft	-0.44s/f

Here is the problem of using any kind of subjective handicap/performance rating in time ratings. Alpine Star ran her race .17 secs faster than Palace Pier (without going allowances to either time). This Is approximately one length at 8 furlongs and a length maybe either 2lbs or 2 points weight free. How then can Palace Pier be rated 3 lbs superior by Racing Post Handicappers given a strict interpretation of the race time. Top speed have the figures the correct way round.
I have Alpine Star 103. -.04 (pace)
Palace Pier. 101. -.02(pace)
these figures are weight free base to 100. I am trying some pace figures I am calculating and of course the faster the time the faster the pace will be but it’s quite interesting if you have fairly similar ratings and can’t decide as the pace might be slightly quicker on one. If the pace is minus, the higher the figure the faster the pace and vice verse for positive numbers, The higher the figure the slower the pace . I am enjoying calculating these figures together with my weight free ratings. I have started to lean more now towards these ratings as they are out performing my time/ ability ratings , particularly at Ascot. On time and Ability for instance I had The Lir Jet and Eye Of Heaven on the same rating but on weight free and pace they were:
The Lir Jet 75
Eye of Heaven 73
The Lire Jet is now 84 but Eye of Heaven didn’t run it’s race.
The form has been franked as Enduring who ran yesterday, FTO was only 5.25 lengths behind the Lir Jet and in the context of yesterday’s race it was well clear. It won very well by 2 lengths. It was a good thing according to the figures and duly obliged at 5/2 although it was a little over 11/4 on Betfair Sportsbook (best price).
It’s very rewarding when speed figures confirm the form.
There was a similar winner just now at Ayr in a 4 runner race at Ayr. The fav at 4/9 was a Mark Johnson 2yr old Meshakel, costing £400,000 and Had run once. However the second fav International Dream at 3/1 had also run once on the AW and according to the figures ran in a better race in a better time. I have plenty of confidence in the figures and although of course they don’t all go in at least you are betting on a horse that has at least a modicum of ability. At first glance you would have been drawn to the Mark Johnson Fav, but looking beyond the obvious International Dream was a good bet at 3/1.

 

[Jamie_E]

2:25	Alpine Star	121	1m	1m 42.21s 12.83s	+3.21s +0.40s	110	Gd-Sft	Gd-Sft	-0.44s/f
3:00	Palace Pier	124	1m	1m 42.38s 12.85s	+3.38s +0.42s	108	Gd-Sft	Gd-Sft	-0.44s/f

Here is the problem of using any kind of subjective handicap/performance rating in time ratings. Alpine Star ran her race .17 secs faster than Palace Pier (without going allowances to either time). This Is approximately one length at 8 furlongs and a length maybe either 2lbs or 2 points weight free. How then can Palace Pier be rated 3 lbs superior by Racing Post Handicappers given a strict interpretation of the race time. Top speed have the figures the correct way round. Perplexed!I have Alpine Star 103.
Palace Pier. 101.
these figures are weight free base to 100.

Would they use sectionals in their ratings? Personally I have Palace Pier rated 87 and Alpine Star rated 89 on raw times but when assigning a finishing speed upgrade Alpine Star remains on 89 and Palace Pier gets a 17lb upgrade taking him to 104. It took Alpine Star 38.62 seconds to run the last three furlongs, but Palace Pier only took 35.68 seconds. A huge difference considering the final time was similar.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

B Bertie123

The St James Palace Stakes with ref to the official ratings was the higher class of the two 1m group 1 races, hence the RPR awarding a higher RPR (124) to the winner.





Mike.

 

[Bertie123]

J Jamie_E
Based on the sectionals I can see why you would conclude the difference favouring Palace Pier, but the sectionals only conclude that the early pace was faster in Alpine Star‘s race or she ran a more even gallop, whereas Palace Piers early pace would be slower, hence the rapid acceleration in the final three furlongs, but still, Alpine Star’ final time was still .17 secs faster. As my ratings are weight free for this race I wouldn’t understand where a whopping 17lb upgrade would come from for Palace Pier.

 

[Bertie123]

B Bertie123

The St James Palace Stakes with ref to the official ratings was the higher class of the two 1m group 1 races, hence the RPR awarding a higher RPR (124) to the winner.

View attachment 85219

View attachment 85220

Mike.

Thanks Mike but still, we both have speed ratings that have Alpine Star the faster of the two.

 

[Jamie_E]

J Jamie_E
Based on the sectionals I can see why you would conclude the difference favouring Palace Pier, but the sectionals only conclude that the early pace was faster in Alpine Star‘s race or she ran a more even gallop, whereas Palace Piers early pace would be slower, hence the rapid acceleration in the final three furlongs, but still, Alpine Star’ final time was still .17 secs faster. As my ratings are weight free for this race I wouldn’t understand where a whopping 17lb upgrade would come from for Palace Pier.

The theory behind it is if Alpine Star ran to a pace where she expended her energy evenly through the race, that is the time that best reflects what she is capable of. Palace Pier nearly matched this time yet gave Alpine Star a 15-20 length headstart at the 3 furlong pole. It shows the energy he had available to him and the turn of foot he possesses. I'm very confident that if this energy was distributed evenly through a race his final time would be much quicker than Alpine Star's.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

J Jamie_E

Just using the OR's and my projection formula I had Palace Pier running to +10.



For the formulas ref the excel sheet attached.
Note the figure of 1.96 is the 95% confidence interval.

Mike.

 

[Chesham]

Palace Pier ran around 6.5 Metres more than Alpine Star

Alpine Star ran the fastest indivual sectional 39.9 MPH and PP =39MPH

Alpine probably only probably did only as much as she needed to to win

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I just updated my Google links on my new PC, had to reload the Google drive.

Going allowances: Speed Figures.rar

Every going allowance I have worked on since 2018 packed in a RAR file.

***************************************************************************

FLAT2018_2020: FLAT2018_2020.xlsx

Every flat speed figures from 2018 (101,000+)

******************************************************************************************************************

NH2018_2020: NH2018_2020.xlsx

Every national hunt speed figures from 2018.

*******************************************************************************************************************

Standard Times: StandardTimes.xls

My old trusty standard times list which has been updated so many times over the years.

Mike.

update: just changed the link on the going allowance (speed figure) .rar file.

 

[Bertie123]

Great discussion re Alpine and Palace. Both very smart

 

[Outlander]

Great discussion re Alpine and Palace. Both very smart

Excellent discussion guys, excellent thread
My experimental no weight speed and class figures threw up Art Power and Alpine Star as winners to follow from the meeting .

HORSE	SPEED	CLASS	Better than Class
Art Power (IRE)	117.63​	115.70​	1.93​
Alpine Star (IRE)	120.39​	118.84​	1.55​
Dark Vision (IRE)	117.54​	116.12​	1.42​
Palace Pier	119.88​	118.77​	1.12​
Khaloosy (IRE)	115.85​	114.76​	1.09​
Frankly Darling	113.06​	112.62​	0.44​
Hey Jonesy (IRE)	115.73​	115.44​	0.29​
Motakhayyel	115.29​	115.12​	0.17​
Coeur de Lion	112.91​	113.05​	-0.15​
Highland Chief (IRE)	114.19​	114.37​	-0.18​
Chiefofchiefs	114.09​	114.27​	-0.18​
Sir Busker (IRE)	113.95​	114.14​	-0.19​
Onassis (IRE)	110.94​	111.14​	-0.20​
Hukum (IRE)	111.60​	112.02​	-0.43​
Russian Emperor (IRE)	115.21​	115.68​	-0.46​
Battaash (IRE)	119.62​	120.21​	-0.59​
Molatham	115.26​	116.07​	-0.81​
Pyledriver	115.17​	115.99​	-0.82​
Fujaira Prince (IRE)	112.49​	114.40​	-1.91​
Lord North (IRE)	115.75​	117.87​	-2.12​
Campanelle (IRE)	115.72​	117.95​	-2.23​
Golden Horde (IRE)	115.28​	117.56​	-2.28​
Stradivarius (IRE)	117.10​	119.42​	-2.32​
Hello Youmzain (FR)	116.01​	118.36​	-2.35​
Santiago (IRE)	110.90​	113.50​	-2.60​
Tactical	115.40​	118.19​	-2.79​
The Lir Jet (IRE)	113.02​	116.23​	-3.21​
Scarlet Dragon	109.72​	113.19​	-3.47​
Mountain Angel (IRE)	112.53​	116.11​	-3.58​
Who Dares Wins (IRE)	108.40​	112.59​	-4.19​
Fanny Logan (IRE)	111.51​	115.71​	-4.21​
Nazeef	108.55​	113.72​	-5.17​
Circus Maximus (IRE)	110.08​	116.12​	-6.03​
Battleground (USA)	109.61​	116.15​	-6.55​
Nando Parrado	108.99​	115.72​	-6.73​
Dandalla (IRE)	108.14​	116.06​	-7.92​

 

[tacker]

One horse the handicapper is likely to hammer is KHALOOSY, his maiden success at two was very impressive and i might be biased but for me he won like a very good horse last thursday. Officially rated 94 then if the sectionals support what your eye tells you he will get at least another stone tomorrow. He could be even better on quicker ground and should get 10f, definitely a group horse imo but maybe others have already sussed.