• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Come On Start Posting

Well here's day 3 of the project.
(DAY 2 Southwell Results and Summary Updated)

Project All Weather

Will update with live odds nearer the off.

*Just remember to choose the Kempton TAB at the bottom of the sheet*

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
 
Last edited:
Sullybomb said:
Well here's day 3 of the project.
(DAY 2 Southwell Results and Summary Updated)
Click to expand...

I find when using Bayesian and other tissue calculator variants, if the top rated were poor value, I'd tend to not to lay them, but rather look for the other better value ones at a fair price, or leave the race alone altogether. (just a personal view)

There will plenty of races where the ratings will show a poorly rated runner that are priced up as a favourite. A further check on the data sheet could be done to see where the weaknesses are in the profile, then a decision can be made. I also focus on smaller fields, max 10 runners. The overrounds are smaller and there's less excuse for getting boxed in during a race, and in some cases, the draw has less impact.

Your audit (I like that) @ Southwell summarised how well your data sheet found backs and lay. This time of year results can be inconsistent, as there are cheeky unexposed 3 year olds improving and wrecking handicap calculations.

One area that I seem to second guess myself is the draw/pace angles. When you get it to the stage (you might already be there) where your data sheet consistently identifies where the pace will be, and the relevant draw bias, that alone will be some sort of edge.

The pedigree/breeding is another one that not many (me included) have really got on top of, but if you get consistency with that data, that's an edge right there too.

There's also a saying "Value is in the eye of the beholder" (if not there should be). How you produce your own rating, or any other one that is used, will be the key mid-long term. You have to give your own rating(s) a fair test, if you find something that works better on the all weather but not on the turf, then re-testing that on previous data is worth doing before making an actual change.

For me, I enjoy the process and try and learn new things, be it in excel, gpt, sports, some things take longer than others, but I've learned not to be hard on myself if I get it wrong from time to time.
 
DuckandDive said:
I find when using Bayesian and other tissue calculator variants, if the top rated were poor value, I'd tend to not to lay them, but rather look for the other better value ones at a fair price, or leave the race alone altogether. (just a personal view)

There will plenty of races where the ratings will show a poorly rated runner that are priced up as a favourite. A further check on the data sheet could be done to see where the weaknesses are in the profile, then a decision can be made. I also focus on smaller fields, max 10 runners. The overrounds are smaller and there's less excuse for getting boxed in during a race, and in some cases, the draw has less impact.

Your audit (I like that) @ Southwell summarised how well your data sheet found backs and lay. This time of year results can be inconsistent, as there are cheeky unexposed 3 year olds improving and wrecking handicap calculations.

One area that I seem to second guess myself is the draw/pace angles. When you get it to the stage (you might already be there) where your data sheet consistently identifies where the pace will be, and the relevant draw bias, that alone will be some sort of edge.

The pedigree/breeding is another one that not many (me included) have really got on top of, but if you get consistency with that data, that's an edge right there too.

There's also a saying "Value is in the eye of the beholder" (if not there should be). How you produce your own rating, or any other one that is used, will be the key mid-long term. You have to give your own rating(s) a fair test, if you find something that works better on the all weather but not on the turf, then re-testing that on previous data is worth doing before making an actual change.

For me, I enjoy the process and try and learn new things, be it in excel, gpt, sports, some things take longer than others, but I've learned not to be hard on myself if I get it wrong from time to time.
Click to expand...
Hey DuckandDive DuckandDive I appreciate the feedback.

When I say I'm a complete NOOB at this, I'm genuinely not kidding literally been at it less than a week starting from scratch but, I enjoy the challenge of finding my own angles and learning as I go.

From my own past experiences the changeover between Turf and the NH season (AW included in that) always throws up some strange results or the market has it completely wrong if there's a sudden ground change etc. The approach to Xmas season invariably brings out those gambling stables who like to get their staff a wee juicy bonus in time for Santa. *We can probably name a few*

I have my Draw Bias tables and the PACE angles are more Predictions than an exact science so I guess that has to be factored in.

Pedigrees is something new to me and it was really Chesham Chesham and his Extensive pedigree analysis summary sheets that got me thinking how important they could be especially for 2yo and 3yo races.

Moving forward i guess its refine refine refine until its at a point where I'm happy. Ideally I'd love to have it all Automated or coded so I can click a few buttons and all the work is done, but I would have no clue where to start with that so its all manual for the moment.

Yesterday was a very positive outcome and if I have more days than not like that I'll be more than happy.

As always if you have any other suggestions of other things to consider please don't hesitate.

:handgestures-thumbup: Sul
 
Day 4 of - Project All Weather (it's what I'm calling it anyway)

2 Meetings on the AW today.

Project All Weather

**Updated yesterdays card at Kempton with End of Racing Summary**


DISCLAIMER: Don't take too much notice of the FINAL SELECTIONS and STAKING PLAN for todays racing as I update the Live odds around 10mins prior to the off. The data on the spreadsheet will change based on the market conditions which will impact both.

I hope that all makes sense.

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
 
Hi Everyone! I found this forum by chance this morning, started reading around, and came across a lot of interesting discussions. So I decided to introduce myself — I hope I’m in the right place…
I used to work full-time as a professional sports trader on Betfair.se while living in Sweden. Unfortunately, since the platform shut down last July, I suddenly found myself unable to keep doing the job I’ve built over the past 5 years. 😕
Right now, I’ve gone back to doing some football pre-match trading, where all began for me, but honestly, I don’t enjoy it much — the markets are too slow and liquidity is not the same of 5 years ago! My background is in value-based betting and odds calculation, mainly focused on UK & Irish horse racing. I’ve always seen betting as a numbers game, not a guessing one — I create everyday my own RaceCard, calculate my own odds, back horses when the market price reaches the right level, and that approach keeps things profitable both in pre-race trading and straight betting. I will share some analysis with you..
 
1760122366925.png
1760122395931.png
Project has done okay today so far.

Will post up all results a little later.

*They are updated on the Spreadsheet*

Scroll to bottom of the sheet.


RESULTS:
📊 Full‑Day Meeting Roll‑Up (16:05 – 20:15)


  • Overlays landed: Oursin, Absolute Star, Pride of Donegal, John T, Kingmaker
  • Tactical/hidden overlays validated: Lady Milton (twice), She Commands, Zarakerjack, One Cool Dreamer, Waistcoat, Me Tarzan
  • Underlays beaten: Majority across the card (Tarot + My Boy Harry exceptions)
  • Variance spikes: Jazzy Baby (116 BSP, 2nd), Asset (15.8 BSP, 3rd), Atlantis Blue (54.9 BSP, 4th), Now The Eagle (232 BSP, 5th)
  • Bias/Pace confirmations:
    • 16:05: Low‑draw bias confirmed
    • 16:38: Neutral, even pace
    • 17:15: Neutral, weak pace → handy types dominated
    • 17:45: Neutral, weak pace → prominent Oursin delivered
    • 18:15: Neutral, handy types dominated
    • 18:45: Neutral, weak pace → Absolute Star delivered
    • 19:15 & 19:45: Strong pace → closers/stalkers dominated
    • 20:15: Weak pace → prominent racers dominated
  • Aggregate P&L: Outlay £180 → Returns £248.7 → +£68.7
  • Aggregate ROI: +38% net
 
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Sullybomb said:
Here is PROJECT ALL WEATHER for Kempton.

Think I've finally settled on a format/layout.

Kempton 131025

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
Click to expand...
Bets attach some context to the sheet and explain a little about the thought and process. Hopefully this maybe answers a few questions.

🟩
Race Summary V1 — 16:10 Kempton Handicap

When I'm building the spreadsheets I always take a live odds screen grab, and those odds are then built into the sheet and the initial RACE CONTEXT-SUMMARY-OVERLAYS is produced. So its really a snapshot at that time.
What it may highlight is horses that Score High-Rank High may be undervalued massively in the market and it gives an early opportunity to GET ON before the price contracts. *That would all be dependent I suppose on when I get the live odds screen grab, I guess*

🟩
Audit Template — Pre‑Race (Live Odds Applied)

So this is probably the most (well it is) important part of the spreadsheet in terms of what I'll be betting. This is a live screen grab of the odds from Betfair 2-5mins pre off time, and this is what will determine based on the scoring-rank and a plethora of other factors what is deemed as a VALUE Overlay BET and those which are Monitor Only and others which are simply NO VALUE or fail further filters.

🟩
Post‑Race Close‑Out Audit Template

This will be completed once the race has been ran and I can drop the Results into the system. It cross checks things like Pace Bias, Draw Bias, and a host of other things and basically summarises did what was expected to happen actually happen? Or were there other factors at work, VARIANCE being a big one.

I hope that in some way explains the process and I apologise if it's somewhat vague but, I'm hoping you get the jist. To be honest I'm still learning myself and it's a steep curve.

Ultimately if I enjoy the process and can make a wee bit of money at the end of it, HAPPY DAYS!!

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
 
Sullybomb said:
This is a live screen grab of the odds from Betfair 2-5mins pre off time,
Click to expand...

Well done with your progress.

Have you managed to automate the odds grab, or are you inputting them manually?

The traders and their bots get super busy around the 2 minute mark, some adding to their position ready to go in-play, some greening/redding up just before the off. 5 minutes to 2 minutes in the world of these bots could move a price dramatically, especially once the live betfair pictures are available and the runners behaviour or condition (sweating up), can be taken into account.

Not 100% sure what the right answer is, but my preference is, around the 2 minute/1 minute mark, to input the odds into my sheet and let it spit out the staking after value checking the tissue...etc.
 
DuckandDive said:
Well done with your progress.

Have you managed to automate the odds grab, or are you inputting them manually?

The traders and their bots get super busy around the 2 minute mark, some adding to their position ready to go in-play, some greening/redding up just before the off. 5 minutes to 2 minutes in the world of these bots could move a price dramatically, especially once the live betfair pictures are available and the runners behaviour or condition (sweating up), can be taken into account.

Not 100% sure what the right answer is, but my preference is, around the 2 minute/1 minute mark, to input the odds into my sheet and let it spit out the staking after value checking the tissue...etc.
Click to expand...
I'm aiming for the 2 min mark too, not always easy but as close to that point as possible.

Here's tomorrows Racecard for Lingfield. Prices and selections will update closer to the off.

LINGFIELD 141025


*Will post Newcastle later today*

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
 
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