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Come On Start Posting

It is useful to match up a Jockeys Pace Style to that of the horse that he has been engaged to ride.

Most TV Pundits seem to focus on Jamie Spencer being a good hold up jockey and he is , but also overlooked is that his mounts run to form with a higher percentage when he is on a front runner who is also in with a chance on Timeform Ratings

IMG_4477.jpeg
 
DuckandDive said:
I think that's really good, well done.

Looks like you've mastered some way of downloading data from a web source into excel, you're way ahead of the curve there.
Click to expand...
With a lot of help from those AI apps indeed.

Would probably take someone like yourself 2 mins to do this, took me hours. :D

But, its a steep learning curve so willing to give it a bash, its the only way right?

What I'll probably do is focus on the AW over the winter and just try different things to see what works and makes sense. Less tracks to focus on and hopefully a bit easier to get a grasp of.

If anyone has any suggestions (bear in mind I'm a complete Excel NOOB) then feel free.

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
 
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Sullybomb said:
Would probably take someone like yourself 2 mins to do this, took me hours
Click to expand...

Not the web source stuff, I haven't applied myself to any of that, as yet.

I enjoy getting to grips with excel, at my own pace. With the help of others on this forum, and GPT, the gap is closing fast.

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On your sheet, you have an angle in, on the breeding with a decision matrix.

1759761914117.png

You also have Draw bias and run style with a best-fit assessment.

1759761975000.png

Comments and ratings with a short-list decision.

1759762865530.png

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All of it in excel and easy to view. (y)

One caveat is, if the output is solely dependent on A.I research/interpreting, you would need a way of fact checking some of the data before deciding to invest.

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DuckandDive said:
Not the web source stuff, I haven't applied myself to any of that, as yet.

I enjoy getting to grips with excel, at my own pace. With the help of others on this forum, and GPT, the gap is closing fast.

-----

On your sheet, you have an angle in, on the breeding with a decision matrix.

View attachment 160762

You also have Draw bias and run style with a best-fit assessment.

View attachment 160763

Comments and ratings with a short-list decision.

View attachment 160764

-----

All of it in excel and easy to view. (y)

One caveat is, if the output is solely dependent on A.I research/interpreting, you would need a way of fact checking some of the data before deciding to invest.

----
Click to expand...
Yeah I'll need to figure out which resources are best to do this, ideally freely available online. The Breeding stuff was taken from Timeform racecards, Draw Bias and run style from The Racing app. Probably doing it this way is not the quickest but, at least I can learn as I go.

Longer term project and this was probably a very crude 1st draft.

Cheers

Sul
 
Sullybomb said:
Here is Day 2 of the project.

Focus is on the AW for now.

Southwell 07-10-2025

:handgestures-thumbup:Sul
Click to expand...

You're creating some good stuff there. Like the key points/final selection.

1759815992947.png

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There are a couple of nice A.I threads on the forum and all of them showcase some interesting ways to present data.

I suppose I'm drawn to how excel is incorporated into the mix. Don't get me wrong, horse racing by it's nature isn't perfect, so the best the analytical tools won't always pinpoint a winner, but it's better than just using guesswork/gut instinct, and it's fun too.

----
 
DuckandDive said:
You're creating some good stuff there. Like the key points/final selection.

View attachment 160777

---

There are a couple of nice A.I threads on the forum and all of them showcase some interesting ways to present data.

I suppose I'm drawn to how excel is incorporated into the mix. Don't get me wrong, horse racing by it's nature isn't perfect, so the best the analytical tools won't always pinpoint a winner, but it's better than just using guesswork/gut instinct, and it's fun too.

----
Click to expand...
Thanks.

Next will be figuring out when all the races have been run, getting all that results info into the spreadsheet and how that would adjust ratings moving forward.

And then maybe look at some way of getting the betting market into the spreadsheet for a more dynamic setup, pinpointing value bets in real time.

That's a million miles away but, if anyone out there has ideas or can help in anyway, be very much appreciated.

Cheers

Sul 👍
 
Sullybomb said:
And then maybe look at some way of getting the betting market into the spreadsheet for a more dynamic setup, pinpointing value bets in real time.
Click to expand...

Here's one to get you started.

This is a dynamic setup that takes into account the live market and your ratings, converted into a tissue.

Using your final rating for tonights 8.30 Southwell and converting them into a tissue price, this is the output using a Bayesian Probability calculation.

The value index should be > 1 for value betting proposition.
On the other tab, after input, delete the rows not used.

You could also use a trusted betting forecast as a tissue price and use your rating as a guide for a go/no go decision.

Remember, value betting can be a frustrating, but a rewarding pursuit.

1759859300301.png
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There are a lot of other posts in the other part of the forum that would take things further, but it's not my work to share openly.
 

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  • Bayesian.xlsx
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Brilliant work creating these ratings .
I just hope Create can cope with a small field .
Struggled previously.
Not really relevant to your hard work creating brilliant ratings but there’s always something else to consider and that’s what makes it tricky
 
13323.081323.08297.742.162.75
You currently have 2 categories with specifications in your system.

Race Data - All of these categories specify only the types of races included.
No. of RunnersBetween 11 And 14
Horse Data - These categories specify the individual traits of each horse in THIS race.
Horse
Create (IRE)
 
I'm not betting in this race, (Class 6), but this is how my own set up would look.

The odds are input @ 7.15pm, but nearer the off will likely change, and that would be when the final decision would be made.

1759860830145.png
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Final inputs before off-time, Create @ BSP 3.65 secured more value and profit. (accounts for the NR)

1759865614377.png
 
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Very interesting stuff .
Low class races are a conundrum aren’t they .
Often I decide nothing can win .
I know from limited experience that sometimes trainers are creative in their attempt to win too.
 
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