Class/form horses

[Chesham]

Not involved in the race but of the two Ryan runners in the Race, Bergerac has dropped to a winning mark and won the race on the wrong side of the track in the Ayr Silver Cup of 2 Lbs higher BHA than today

 

[rbtblb82]

Yep, exactly, two races, two rubbish favourites, although Two Tribes did get going towards the end, and 2nd race was won by one I wouldn't have picked really, 1st race wasn't a shock really - Clifford Lee/Karl Burke.

 

[Tufnel]

3 very close 2nds today at 11/2, 11/2 and 20/1.
And it's always gutting when you get beat by the horse next in the list.

 

[Leodis]

No they are not, if I was starting from scratch I would take the best 100 races with the outliers removed and work to the 10th percentile.

Mike.

Thanks Mike ( TheBluesBrother ),

After using Chat Gpt with some of my ideas, I think it is possible to produce relative weights over different courses and distances.

Basically, the idea is if Epsom 5f is the fastest/easiest course/distance then it should follow that a horse carrying 10-2 would have the easiest task when compared to horses carrying the same weight at different tracks and distances.

If this is the case then, using Epsom 5f standard and 10-2 as the constants and your standard times and Lbs per lengths plus a seconds-per-length figure, then my calculator can produce relative weights for each course and distance.

Picking a random course and distance - Newbury 12f for example and plugging in the data, the relative weight (task) to Epsom 5f at 10st 2lbs would be 8st 8lb over Newbury 12f

Regards

 

[Leodis]

If we flipped the calculation, and used the minimum 8st 2lb as the constant then the equivalent task over Newbury 12f would be 9st 10lb.

I suppose what I'm trying to achieve here is an at-a- glance comparison between the various courses/distances any given horse has run on and how advantaged/ disadvantaged it is was with the weight carried.

 

[Leodis]

Using the weight constant of 10-2, projects what the top weight should be at a given course/distance (8st 8lb for the Newbury example) and falls in line with what the author was implying in The Solidus book. Here we can gauge the advantage/disadvantage of physical weight movements.

If we want to represent the stiffness of a particular course and distance then we
change the weight constant to 8st 2lb

 

[Leodis]

Ps. I will post the charts indoors, once completed

 

[Tufnel]

Below is yesterday's Musidora race by my default sort based on quality of recent rival. Given the connections and the data, I'm scratching my head as to why I didn't give this race more attention. I know I looked at the early betting and thought Whirl would be around 13/8 at best and moved on. And as I watched the horse go further clear down the straight at an amazing 7/2 SP I found it a little ironic that Inesherin, who I did back in the group sprint (along with Elite Status) had gone from an early 5/2 into 11/8.

I wonder what price One Look would have been in yesterday's race?

 

[Leodis]

15.53 Pth

Of the two class-form horses (Bel Amigo & Kinbara Firstdraft), I think KF just gets my vote, based on a better performance rating around today's weight.

Currently @8.2 so worth a 20/80

 

[mlmrob]

15.53 Pth

Of the two class-form horses (Bel Amigo & Kinbara Firstdraft), I think KF just gets my vote, based on a better performance rating around today's weight.

Currently @8.2 so worth a 20/80

A race I looked at Leodis and with Nick Alexander training both likely pacemakers, I had to pull the plug as I don't know whether they will take each other on.
Good luck with Kinbara Firstdraft who is strangely rated 5lbs higher in the UK to Ireland, so Crawford obviously feels that he can win off 116 in the UK. I thought he looked interesting when second to Timmy Tuesday who has subsequently showed that Kinbara Firstdraft had no chance at Down Royal by finishing second at Aintree and improving his Timeform rating by 7lbs. Kinbara improved his Timeform rating by 5lbs at Down Royal.

 

[Leodis]

Thanks mlmrob

I hate it when Chat Gpt goes for the other class-form horse :-D

Reanalysis of Runners (Sorted by Merit):​

1. Just Dottie​

• Handicap Score: 3 → Good
• Last Race Class: 4 → Well below today’s class 7
• Race Class (Best): 4 → Below today’s
• Bower Rating: 85 → Decent
• P Ratio: 2.15 (best in field)
• Comment: “Obvious contender”
• Drawback: Never performed in Class 7 or higher.
• Overall: Top chance based on profile, but stepping up in class is a concern.

2. Bel Amigo​

• Handicap Score: 3
• Last Race Class: 4 (form run)
• Best Race Class: 4
• Consistency: 41.15
• Ability: 111
• Bower: 92 (joint-best)
• P Ratio: 0.82 (moderate)
• Comment: “Sharp 2m a concern”
• Drawback: Hasn't competed at today's class level
• Overall: Top-rated horse, slight question mark at new class level and trip

3. Simple Star​

• Handicap Score: 5
• Last Race Class: [8] → non-form run, but in a better race than today
• Best Race Class: 5 → Good
• P Ratio: 0.93
• Comment: “Should fare better”
• Overall: Good handicap score + non-form run in stronger class → strong bounce-back potential

4. Cuban Cigar​

• Handicap Score: 6
• Last Race Class: [8] → non-form run in better race
• Best Class: 0 → Low
• P Ratio: 0.93
• Comment: “Not progressed; others stronger”
• Overall: Handicap score is best, but lacks high-class proven form → wildcard

5. Kinbara Firstdraft​

• Handicap Score: -3 →
• Last Race Class: 7 → form run at today's class
• Best Class: 7 →
• Bower: 91 → good
• Comment: “Chance”
• P Ratio: 0.82
• Overall: Consistent at today’s class, but handicapped poorly

6. Evaluation​

• Handicap Score: -20
• Class: 4 → Below today's level
• P Ratio: 1.56
• Comment: “Each-way chance”
• Overall: Attractive odds/P ratio, but figures are weak

7. Mack The Man​

• Handicap Score: -1
• Last Class: [8] (non-form run in higher race)
• Best Class: 5 → ok
• P Ratio: 0.50
• Comment: “Bit to prove”
• Overall: Has raced in higher classes, but out of form

---

Top 2 Horses (Updated for Correct Class Interpretation)​

Rank	Horse	Reason
	Simple Star	Strong handicap score (5), ran in Class 8 last time (non-form), capable in higher-class; value and upside
	Bel Amigo	Best overall ratings (Ability 111, Consistency 41.15), proven at Class 4, in form, good comments; stable performer

---

Summary:​

• Simple Star has a better recent class experience and is well-handicapped.
• Bel Amigo has the class and consistency profile to cope, but the drop in trip is a concern.
• Just Dottie, while popular and consistent, may struggle stepping up in class for the first time.

 

[Leodis]

15.21 Pth
Summergrounds and Go Go Chicago are the class-form horses. The former is preferred, as it is proven at the weight and distance.

 

[Leodis]

Horse-by-Horse Shortlist Analysis:​

Frisby​

• Last Race Class: [4] → non-form run but still high class
• Handicap Score: +2
• P Ratio: 1.78 – strong
• Bower Rating: 90, Ability: 100 – solid
• Comment: Unexposed handicap debut; frame finishes in all hurdle starts.
• Odds: 4.50 – prominent in the market
  Verdict: Unexposed, high ability, positive numbers, good P Ratio – top candidate.

---

Summergrounds​

• Last Race Class: 5 → form run in today’s class
• Handicap Score: +8
• P Ratio: 2.29 – best in field
• Bower Rating: 87, Ability: 101 – excellent
• Comment: Progressive, recent winner, well suited at this level
• Odds: 3.50 – favorite
  Verdict: Proven at this class, strong figures, progressive profile – strong contender.

---

Close Contenders:​

• Hay Meadow – unlucky last time, good Bower (93), solid P Ratio (1.14), but negative Handicap Score (–12) and ran in non-form race ([5]).
• Go Go Chicago – balanced profile, but no standout stat; neutral scores.
• Park Annonciade – good P Ratio (1.23) but poor Handicap Score (–13) and non-form run ([8]).
• Belle Of Annandale – strong Handicap Score (+13), but poor P Ratio (0.80) and low Bower Rating (67).

---

Top 2 Selections:​

Rank	Horse	Reason
	Summergrounds	In-form run at today’s class, highest P Ratio, strong ratings, consistent
	Frisby	Unexposed, strong Bower/Ability, good Handicap Score, top P Ratio

 

[Tufnel]

York
2:10 American Affair + Shagraan
2:42 Sisyphean + Romieu
3:45 The Lion In Winter
4:18 Aesterius
5:25 Merchant

Salisbury
2:25 Youthful King

Perth 3:53 Bel Amigo + Kinbara Firstdraft

I would see the best 3 as American Affair, The Lion In Winter and Merchant.

 

[Tufnel]

15.21 Pth
Summergrounds and Go Go Chicago are the class-form horses. The former is preferred, as it is proven at the weight and distance.

Summergrounds looks to have an excellent chance. I'd be a little worried about Park Annonciade coming back to form having dropped down the weights in better races, but Summergrounds beat a very similar type from better races last time.

 

[Tufnel]

I'm also adding in Alzahir to my book for the 2:42 at York.

 

[Tufnel]

Oh dear. Dismissed even though it was top on rival quality and another one of those types beats my selection.
Fair play to Bethell for at least giving everyone the excuse beforehand.
Moore's horse ran a strange race. He made damn sure he got to the front to make it then seemed to sit and let others pass 2 out before rallying well.

 

[Tufnel]

Another one for the rival prize quality >>
Why am I missing so many of these?
Perhaps the essence of them is not trying to apply the usual race reading logic to it all?
They are going off at decent prices for a reason.
Looked at it. Lay off after a poor run, down in class today. Didn't back it.

 

[Tufnel]

Kempton
6:00 Afloat + Damascus Steel

 

[Tufnel]

Kempton
8:30 Arctic Dawn