Yes, I was fairly confident he was genuinely on a bit of progression. What was irritating for my analysis was that I so readily discarded the only horse I had above RE on rival quality last time out. It was clear even in the 6 runs on my chart that the winner came to hand in May and had course form. At the very least I should hvae had a small saver at the prices. RE tried his heart out and briefly looked like holding on. Ah well. AT least Water Of Leith did the biz earlier though it was a 9/1 chance when I put it up and I left it to SP of 13/2. Still a winning day at least.
Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
TheBluesBrother
Dam
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JennyK
Gelding
TheBluesBrother How are you defining "working ORs" and where does the 17 derive?
Would 17 apply to the race Regal Envoy won on 11/06/24 which, subject to correction, is the race with the horse's highest sf since 01/01/24? And what does the difference between the working ORs for that race and the win on 17/04/25, presumably in conjection with the actual ORs, tell us?
For me, the latter race was very clearly the better performance by Regal Envoy:
11/06/24: class 46, average OR of field 72.2, ran off 77. SF 63
17/07/25: class 129, average OR of field 85.2, ran off 84. SF 62
On my performance ratings, and without taking into account the respective margins of victory, the improvement is well over a stone.
,
TheBluesBrother
Dam
This is how we bypass WFA to produce the
mlmrob speed figure/handicap figure sheets, for national hunt racing, we add 28lbs.The lbs per length figures that I use, along with my method for compiling figures, allows us to bypass having to use the BHA WFA.
The RP have their own WFA figures, which are more accurate than the BHAs, you only have to look at the 2yo allowance for March; the RP has 26lbs and the BHA 47lbs, that's a 21lb difference...
Mike.
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Chesham
Sire
comprehensive sectional time analysis and future performance outlook based on the Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap (Class 3) at Good to Firm ground (6f 12y, 12 May 2025):
Race Overview:
- Winning Time: 1m 10.59s
- Time Index: 6.1/10 (Meeting Avg: 5.4)
- Vs Par: -0.19s (slightly faster than par)
- FSP Efficiency: ~100.84% for winner (Buccabay)
Key Takeaways by Horse:
1. Buccabay (Winner - 22/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Best in race. Negative Vs.Par in key middle stages, especially 5f (11.02s) and 6f (12.10s) — both fastest splits of the race.
- Acceleration Burst: Largest positional gain late. Moved from 5th (+0.39) after 4f to leading within final furlong.
- MPH Surge: Approx 0.39s faster than leader at 5f, indicating a burst from ~36.0 mph to ~38.5 mph in that section.
- Future Outlook: With a TFR of 96 and figure of 88, this win was no fluke. Ideal for another strong showing in Class 3/2 over sharp 6f with pace to aim at.
2. Regal Envoy (2nd - 8/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Extremely well-paced throughout, especially efficient 2f (10.69s) and 3f (10.98s).
- Acceleration Burst: Strong from 2f out, took lead then faded marginally inside final furlong.
- MPH Peak: Peak acceleration between 3f and 2f out (~37.8 mph), but lacked late burst compared to Buccabay.
- Future Outlook: Reliable front-runner. Slight stamina doubts in stiff 6f races, but dangerous when allowed to dictate pace.
3. Coup De Force (3rd - 18/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Finished strong from rear, very even splits, kept improving after 3f.
- Acceleration Burst: From +0.84s at 3f to +0.15s at finish — a strong late kick, without rapid acceleration but high sustained MPH (~36.5 mph maintained).
- Future Outlook: Suited to strongly-run sprints with cut in ground. Could land a similar handicap off lower weight.
4. Trefor (4th - 5/2f)
- Energy Efficiency: Lost momentum due to traffic issues. Sectional splits suggest he was poised to accelerate between 3f-2f but was denied a run.
- Acceleration Potential: Data indicates ability to match Buccabay’s late surge but was blocked.
- Future Outlook: Mark up performance. Looks handicapped to win soon if getting clear passage. Keep on side.
5. Treacherous (5th - 14/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Late surge, best final 100 yards section. No standout MPH burst but very strong efficiency late.
- Future Outlook: Still competitive aged 11, but needs a collapse in pace to challenge for win.
6. Aramis Grey (6th - 4/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Wide switch cost ground. Efficient middle section but not dynamic in the finish.
- Future Outlook: Best suited to easier 6f tracks or slightly softer ground. Still well-treated in 90-rated company.
7. Havanagreattime (7th - 7/2)
- Energy Efficiency: Front-runner, too aggressive early (1st after 1f-3f), paid for it late.
- Acceleration Burst: Early peak (~37.5 mph), faded late.
- Future Outlook: Needs aggressive ride tactics reconsidered. On easier circuits could dominate.
8. Amazonian Dream (8th - 12/1)
- Energy Efficiency: No significant bursts, consistently mid-pack.
- Future Outlook: Needs drop in class or tactical advantage from stall positioning.
9. Monsieur Beaulieu (9th - 14/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Over-raced early, keen, compromised his energy distribution.
- Future Outlook: Possible eyecatcher if dropped to 5f or fitted with headgear.
10. Baldomero (10th - 40/1)
- Energy Efficiency: Significant fade after aggressive early position.
- Future Outlook: Off current marks, looks held. Needs clear tactical shift.
Fastest MPH Acceleration Burst (Race Highlight)
- Buccabay delivered the highest acceleration change between 4f (11.14s) to 5f (11.02s).
- Estimated peak acceleration: From ~36.0 mph to ~38.5 mph.
- Buccabay's sectional energy distribution was the most efficient relative to par expectations.
Future Winners to Track:
| Horse | Next Time Note |
|---|---|
| Buccabay | Follow in Class 3/2 sprint handicaps. |
| Trefor | Likely to win with clear run. |
| Coup De Force | One to note in pace-collapse scenarios. |
| Regal Envoy | Danger when able to control early tempo. |
Good start to the day. I wish I'd been able to look at earlier races today instead of running errands.
Not claiming below as a winner, because I didn't back it or run the page until just now (oblivious to the result though), but the top rated on rival quality shows pretty much what I'm looking for in respect of what I'd noted about Rivage Bleu, Valiant Warrior, Arthur's Minstrel and Ever Smile. Last race against a horse who'd recently won or run 2nd in a higher class race and also a higher class race than today's.
I think even big Frank B himself would've seen this one.
Not claiming below as a winner, because I didn't back it or run the page until just now (oblivious to the result though), but the top rated on rival quality shows pretty much what I'm looking for in respect of what I'd noted about Rivage Bleu, Valiant Warrior, Arthur's Minstrel and Ever Smile. Last race against a horse who'd recently won or run 2nd in a higher class race and also a higher class race than today's.
I think even big Frank B himself would've seen this one.
Attachments
Leodis
Gelding
Thanks Mike (
TheBluesBrother ), I get it now.Can I check if your standard times are normalised to weight or not?
T Tufnel wd
Regards
JennyK
Gelding
TheBluesBrother Thank you.
I can see that the tables
mlmrob produces include, for a horse's last six runs, your sfs for the runs plus 17. Thus in the table for Monday's race, the figure for Regal Envoy's last run (17/04/25) is shown as 79, your sf of 62 + 17, as were LR figures for the other runners and are what you refer to as working ORs. That suggests that comparing them with the actual ORs shows which horses ran to, exceeded or fell short of expectations in specific races. But why 17 rather than any other constant, as obviously a different number would change the conclusions, if indeed I am correct in thinking that the difference between the actual OR and the working one is viewed as potentially significant?
You've probably explained it previously, and I am likely being obtuse, but at the moment I'm baffled.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
No they are not, if I was starting from scratch I would take the best 100 races with the outliers removed and work to the 10th percentile.
Mike.
As you can see from the tables produced by
mlmrob they are totally unique, I use a base figure of 100 plus the 17 constant as no other figuresproduces what I need.
Mike.
JennyK
Gelding
York
2:10 Naqeeb + Stressfree
2:42 Two Tribes + We Never Stop
3:13 Inersherin + Elite Status
5:14 Papagei + Maghlaak
Yarmouth
2:25 Daring Legend
Newton Abbot
3:55 Getalead
4:30 Paddy De Pole
Possibly too busy with the selections today. If I had to narrow them down to a best on each card I'd say York 3:13 selections, Yarmouth 2:25 and NA 4:30.
2:10 Naqeeb + Stressfree
2:42 Two Tribes + We Never Stop
3:13 Inersherin + Elite Status
5:14 Papagei + Maghlaak
Yarmouth
2:25 Daring Legend
Newton Abbot
3:55 Getalead
4:30 Paddy De Pole
Possibly too busy with the selections today. If I had to narrow them down to a best on each card I'd say York 3:13 selections, Yarmouth 2:25 and NA 4:30.
JennyK
Gelding
There needs to be a good reason not to back We Never Stop, the VDW class/form horse in the 2.42 York, miles clear on VDW's ability rating and my performance figures of the only other consistent form horse in the field, Mister Sox.
Unfortunately one stares us in the face. We Never Stop's improvement since last summer has all been on the aw. No way yet of knowing if he goes as well on turf, so for me one to watch.
Unfortunately one stares us in the face. We Never Stop's improvement since last summer has all been on the aw. No way yet of knowing if he goes as well on turf, so for me one to watch.
I'm not so sure the AW Turf issue is as big an issue as perhaps it was in the past. Plenty of trainers have gallops with same or similar surfaces. But I haven't checked the figures on this, it's just a general observation that we do see a lot of younger horses starting out on the AW these days and switching to the turf no problem.
The jockey for WNS noted that the horse has 'such a high cruising speed' and that in another race they went so fast that he was 'able to just sit in behind them with something to aim at.'
I backed Two Tribes last time and it was painful to see him finish so well and not quite get there. Hopefully one of the 2 can win today.
JennyK
Gelding
I am sure you are right,
T
Tufnel, and likely We never Stop will be just fine on turf. But until we see it, it remains a question and I'd rather miss a winner than back a loser when there is a palpable unanswered question.
No such problem with Two Tribes, and the highest ability-rated of the four form horses in the race who are not consistent form horses. He is also second, only to We Never Stop, on my lto performance ratings.
A very likely pair, and I hope you collect from one of them.
However it works out today, I am sure several of the runners will win decent handicaps this summer and I'll be watching Bergerac and Holkham Bay with particular interest.
Nice to have some top class turf racing.
No such problem with Two Tribes, and the highest ability-rated of the four form horses in the race who are not consistent form horses. He is also second, only to We Never Stop, on my lto performance ratings.
A very likely pair, and I hope you collect from one of them.
However it works out today, I am sure several of the runners will win decent handicaps this summer and I'll be watching Bergerac and Holkham Bay with particular interest.
Nice to have some top class turf racing.