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Cheltenham Festival 2024

Thanks guys. I've gone with Mystic Power in my Money Back As Cash bet - £20 on Mystic Power to win, money back if it loses. Plus I've gone big on JP McManus across the festival - if he comes in and I don't have him on I'll be fuming, so I have to put him on. I've also hedged against Mystic Power by putting a Cheveley Park Stud double on the 1st two races - Tullyhill 3/1 and Quilixios 13/2 £7 E/W double for £258.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
 
In the Arkle 14 of the last 17 winners, including 8 of the last 9 have had an OR above 150.

That leaves four to concentrate on this year, Gaelic Warrior, Il Etait Temps, Found A Fifty, Hunters Yarn.

Every one of the last 17 winners had placed first or second in their last race.
That trend knocks out Gaelic Warrior.

15-17 wnners had run at Cheltenham between 1-4 times. El Fabiolo dented the trend last year as did Un De Sceaux in 2015.
That trend eliminates Found A Fifty

Leaves me with Il Etait Temps and Hunters Yarn
 
rbtblb82 said:
My punt if the ground is like a swamp is Not So Sleepy in the Champion Hurdle (currently 12/1 NRNB on SkyBet) - 12 year old but loves the mud and beat Love Envoi by 8 lengths at Sandown 09/12/2023 (heavy). Still a very tough ask no matter what the ground is, but if it's heavy he might just have a chance.

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Deffo worth a bet now at around 33/1.
 
For me the Arkle Chase is probs the race today with the most interesting trial race info.

If you look online you'll see I have Gaelic Warrior top rated, so Ill back that to win.

However the way Found a Fifty and Master Chevy feature in strong trial race stats probs makes them good ones to consider for bigger priced place or ew bets.


1710236479596.png
 
High chance of rain until 4pm, so yes Stedz, maybe a punt on Not So Sleepy is worth while now.

Yeh The Arkle is really open I think, that and the Ryanair are two most open races of the festival (other than the handicaps which are complete lotteries).

I've got hundreds of bets on, loads and loads of 7-folds, 9-folds etc. - I'm going to try and not look and hope one comes in, then when I refresh at the end of the day and my balance goes boom. Fingers crossed. Good luck.
 
Someone who lives in Cheltenham says theres been plenty of rain overnight and more to come later .. soft , heavy in places apparently
 
pawras said:
For me the Arkle Chase is probs the race today with the most interesting trial race info.

If you look online you'll see I have Gaelic Warrior top rated, so Ill back that to win.

However the way Found a Fifty and Master Chevy feature in strong trial race stats probs makes them good ones to consider for bigger priced place or ew bets.


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1st and 2nd in the Arkle , that'll do me :)
 
Here's my Cheltenham 2024 Trainer PRB2 ratings, shows who's hot and who's not much more accurately than straight forward strike rates.

By looking at the different time periods you can see who has had consistent good or bad form and who is in a purple patch right now.

1710259912528.png
 
That was really good, enjoyed it. I'm just up across the sites I was betting on but not by much, I'm still in the game though, sometimes I've lost it all day one. I've still got loads of bets on the go across the 4 days. My seven-folds for today did quite well, I was really close with a bunch, I just needed to put Slade Steel and Gaelic Warrior in more of them and I would have hit, some did but only placed. Never mind eh, try again tomorrow - I always try to hit all 7 but never do (ITV was won).
 
I see Jonbon is NR in the Queen Mother, I can't see any of the others beating El Fabiol.

But I see Captain Guinness as good each way bet after it's win in the Navan Fortria Chase Stakes 2m Grade2 on 18/11/2023

Cheltenham Festival Queen Mother trail race stats.JPG
 
This is absolute rubbish , three 1/3 favourites, Coral Cup thats not filled and a 117 horse gets in and a bumper that nobody has a clue about., UK trained horse can’t get within 10 lengths in any Graded race or hurdle. Cheltenham a shadow of what it was.
Without doubt the most boring Cheltenham ever by a mile.
This is what you get when the 300 best horses are in the same stable, and they put on dozens or silly races so he can keep them all apart and everyone can avoid have any interesting races. If this is the pinnacle of NH races then it is on its knees. Might as well build a track in Mullins yard and let him get on with it by himself.
 
Outlander said:
This is absolute rubbish , three 1/3 favourites, Coral Cup thats not filled and a 117 horse gets in and a bumper that nobody has a clue about., UK trained horse can’t get within 10 lengths in any Graded race or hurdle. Cheltenham a shadow of what it was.
Without doubt the most boring Cheltenham ever by a mile.
This is what you get when the 300 best horses are in the same stable, and they put on dozens or silly races so he can keep them all apart and everyone can avoid have any interesting races. If this is the pinnacle of NH races then it is on its knees. Might as well build a track in Mullins yard and let him get on with it by himself.
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If they limited trainers to no more than 25% of the field it would help curtail things and owners wouldn't all gravitate to a small handful of yards.

I did the stats on prize money here, but in IRE, 34% of the prize money was won by just 4 yards in 2023, and that's if you don't count the O'Brien's as basically one yard.

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rbtblb82 said:
Yeh DJ and Johnny Dineen said the same, limiting each trainer to two horses per race is probably the only way.
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yeah but the domination is so advanced that if Mullins could only have 2 runners in a race we would be getting 4 runner races in the novices, we are already near that stage as it is. all the horses are with him, he has 80% control over the game, even Elliot with his 500 horse can’t compete. Thats why I think De Bromhead is the finest trainer of them all, his record in the Mullins saturated era is incredible achievement.
 
Outlander said:
Without doubt the most boring Cheltenham ever by a mile.
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The whole Festival is hype. They didn't need it to last four days as they added races which dilute the others. The Ryanair was probably the best addition.
The Ballymore ten years ago was won by Faugheen at 6/4. These days he would be 1/5. Even Istabraq was 6/5 to win it. The books are squuezing the percentages.
Today has to be the worst days racing ever to take place at Prestbury Park. The UK has two runners in the old RSA Chase which was the Novice Gold Cup back in the day. Florida Pearl and Denman were odds against when they won it. Twelve years ago Bobs Worth beat Flight Lieutenant in the RSA and a year later he won the Gold Cup. Flight Lieutenant was second in the Ryanair before winning the Betfair Bowl.

Great card at Hexham tomorrow though.
 
Outlander said:
yeah but the domination is so advanced that if Mullins could only have 2 runners in a race we would be getting 4 runner races in the novices, we are already near that stage as it is. all the horses are with him, he has 80% control over the game, even Elliot with his 500 horse can’t compete. Thats why I think De Bromhead is the finest trainer of them all, his record in the Mullins saturated era is incredible achievement.
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If phased in over 6 months it would give owners time to shift horses, which they'be have to if they wanted them to get a run
 
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