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Cheltenham Festival 2024

pawras

pawras

Stallion
Here's the trial race stats for the Gold Cup from 2000
I.e. for horses who have ran in the trial race and gone on to run in the following Gold Cup

1703783887408.png

One of the first things I looked at, when a few years ago I started down the road of target and trial races, was some of the 'Cheltenham Trail' info put out by Andy Gibson.
Look at my stats above and let me know if you think he should be quoting the Charlie Hall as trial for the Gold Cup? I'm genuinely interested to know if I'm missing something??
My stats say since 2000, 30 horses have gone from the Charlies Hall to the following Gold Cup and 0 have won and only 2 have placed.

1703783422401.png
 
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I've been having a squint at the Champion Hurdle, should Constitution Hill really be 1/3 against Stateman at 4/1 antepost at this stage?

I don't like going against odds on shots and I know last year Constitution Hill beat Stateman by 9L , but this century 17 have have tried to win the Champion Hurdle 2 yrs running and only 3 have succeeded

Also Stateman went on to win Punchestown Champion Hurdle Stakes at the end of April, and this century 11 winners of that race have gone on to run in the following Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and 6 have won (54.55%)
 
Nice 1, I can't wait, I'm saving my weekly £5 free bet from now until the festival so I have 11 or 12 free bets available.

Constitution Hill probably should be that short, he's an absolute monster, whilst State Man is a very good horse, and a different class to everything else out there, Constitution Hill is on another level. Hopefully State Man takes him on and gets smashed so that Constitution Hill gets the rating he deserves. If he keeps hurdling he'll win 4 in a row.

I won't be putting a single antepost bet on this year, I've done it the last 3 years and it never works (for me), the amount that are voided is ridiculous. There's often no way of knowing which W P Mullins horse he will run, like State Man last year, he was registered in about 12 races before he finally decided which race he was running in. Last year I had 10 pages of anteposts bets (100 bets), and I got a small return off a handful of bets. Save your money and put them on after the declarations.

Antepost annoying, why is horse racing singled out e.g. I can put a bet on next weekends football right now, if the game doesn't go ahead it will void and give me my money back, why can't we bet for whole festival the day before it starts, it's taking the pee, I don't see the difference, just let us put our bets on and if they don't run void them.
 
Hey Pawras, the racing gods are listening, I'm not sure about other bookmakers but SkyBet is now offering Non Runner No Bet for all 28 races at Cheltenham!

Nice 1, I might put some bets on weeks before it starts after all.
 
William Hill = Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) on all 28 races (1st company to do it, started 01 Jan)
SkyBet = NRNB for all 28 races (from 19 Jan )
PaddyPower = Antepost
Bet365 = 5 races NRNB (Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Ryanair, Stayers Hurdle, Gold Cup)
BetFair = claims to have NRNB for all 28 races but I can't find it anywhere, appears to be Antepost
BoyleSports = Antepost
Coral / Ladbrokes = claims to have NRNB on all 28 races but I can't find it anywhere, appears to be Antepost
BetFred = Antepost (worst betting site in my opinion)
 
HI all
Constitution Hill to win Champion Hurdle El Fabiolo to win Champion Chase dbl is 2.09 best price everywhere esle if you think these will win
skybet 20.00 max 2.75 thank you see how long before they cut the price
good luck god bless stay safe
 
eeyore said:
HI all
Constitution Hill to win Champion Hurdle El Fabiolo to win Champion Chase dbl is 2.09 best price everywhere esle if you think these will win
skybet 20.00 max 2.75 thank you see how long before they cut the price
good luck god bless stay safe
Click to expand...
Its not on website anymore
 
Good read pawras pawras

I'm not sure you are aware there is now a cap on the Festival attendances, which began last year.

There was also the endless train strike, which may have had an impact.

Like many racecourses, they alienated a lot of regulars by huge price increases after covid, only to backtrack the following year.

Hotels did exactly the same.

My guess is the attendance in 2022 was simply the "after Covid" euphoria.

If the caps remain in place, they need to look at improving the Wednesday.
 
Cheers doomster doomster I didn't know they'd put a cap on attendances, I'll update my stuff accordingly.

Have they started the card only nonsense there even to buy a coffee from a van like I found at Newbury at Christmas? I won't go back there cos of that.
 
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I decided not to bother after Covid pawras pawras and either do Lanzarote or Tenerife on the same week. I'm only interested in the a/w anyway, but always enjoyed the occasion.

Same group went for over 30 years, but as mentioned the hotel prices put everyone off the first year back and we generally rebooked a year in advance, whilst at the hotel.

Prospect of further train strikes will have an impact I guess.
 
Is there any short priced favourites people don't fancy and are going against?

I was shocked Gaelic Warrior didn't win in Ireland last weekend, I thought he was a shoe-in, only two horses ran in the end! At the same time, I think you only get big bets coming in when you back against these horses e.g. Danny Mullins won on the rank outsider 1st race 18/1, then won the 2nd race @ 4/1, then Il Etait Temps beat 4/7 Marine Nationale @ 6/1, but was 11/1 earlier in the day (& 25/1 the night before!), it was a massive treble, but would have only come in if you backed against two hot/short priced favourites.

Dinoblue is 6/5f for the Mares Hurdle, I don't fancy it, I like Apple Away 10/1. I'm not sure I can find any others that I'd be confident taking on.
 
Hoping Gaelic Warrior and Marine Nationale dont go to the festival now ,obvious weak links in a couple of my ante post accumulators .thankfully NR no bet.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Is there any short priced favourites people don't fancy and are going against?
Click to expand...
Not going against one as such, but do feel State Man will get closer to CH this time around. He has taken the same path as last year but has improved his ratings in those races compared with last season. CH is a freak but has missed a couple of intended runs this season for one reason or another which is a bit frustrating, you want to see the best horses run. State man still has a big ask to turn it around, a 9L defeat last year, but can see that being less this time around.
 
Value wise it has gone a bit skinny now ,but i still think minella indo is an absolute shoe in for the cross country.and also irish point for the stayers hurdle.
 
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