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Cheltenham Festival 2024

Yeh I'm not doing as many bets until most of the declarations have been made next year, and same as you Stedz, I always say that but end up putting some on, but I'm not going to next year, so many end up not running or running in a different race that it's not worth it.

I saw White Rino is running today, I'm a bit torn, there's a few horses running today that had entries for Cheltenham, and as far as I'm concerned, they chickened out and I don't want to back them now, might be petty but if they didn't have a go at Cheltenham I don't want to back them now, but as the same time, they obviously think they've got a better chance of winning today than at Cheltenham, so it might be smart to back them today.
 
But rb, dont forget white rhino was a reserve and didnt get in.i like a horse called Ask me early in the midlands National too,i backed white rhino last night at 15/2 and Ask me early at12/1,both have heavy ground form and have shortened. Good luck.
 
Yeh I didn't realise that tbh, the commentator said it before the off Saturday - I did back him in the end, he was 4th - I had a big lucky 15 Saturday, all 4 placed only, still a profit but not so good. On the next big meet.....
 
pawras said:
Here's the trial race stats for the Gold Cup from 2000
I.e. for horses who have ran in the trial race and gone on to run in the following Gold Cup

View attachment 141301

One of the first things I looked at, when a few years ago I started down the road of target and trial races, was some of the 'Cheltenham Trail' info put out by Andy Gibson.
Look at my stats above and let me know if you think he should be quoting the Charlie Hall as trial for the Gold Cup? I'm genuinely interested to know if I'm missing something??
My stats say since 2000, 30 horses have gone from the Charlies Hall to the following Gold Cup and 0 have won and only 2 have placed.

View attachment 141300
Click to expand...
I got hold of a copy of his "Cheltenham Trail" book and he def has the Charlie Hall down as part of the trail for the Gold Cup, but gives it no stars for significance, so why list it? Or if you do say it's actually a negative trail for Gold Cup.
 
i have that book pawras i assume ,what it means is it has very little significance these days, in the authors opinion maybe.
 
I did not refer to the book this year, but seem to remember looking at it last year and being a bit surprised at some of the key pointer races missing in the irish trail column.my copy is 2020 though ,i dont know if he brought others out since.
 
stedz said:
i have that book pawras i assume ,what it means is it has very little significance these days, in the authors opinion maybe.
Click to expand...

The stats I showed at the start of the thread, I would say makes running in the Charlie Hall a negative, when it's had, since 2000 , 30 runners go to the following Gold Cup and 0 have won and only 2 have placed. And 10 of those were actually winners of the Charlie Hall.



Cheltenham Gold Cup Trial Races.JPG
 
stedz said:
I did not refer to the book this year, but seem to remember looking at it last year and being a bit surprised at some of the key pointer races missing in the irish trail column.my copy is 2020 though ,i dont know if he brought others out since.
Click to expand...
I cross referenced the Gold Cup against about 400 GB and IRE national hunt races, year by year, since 2000 and aggregated up, to get the report above.

He missed out the Fairyhouse Gold Cup Chase, which I'd say is a pretty significant trial for the Gold Cup
 
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yes without checking i seem to remember Quite a few key races missing in the irish trail column for other big festival races too. Although i still think it is a good book.
 
stedz said:
yes without checking i seem to remember Quite a few key races missing in the irish trail column for other big festival races too. Although i still think it is a good book.
Click to expand...

Yeah I can do the report for any of the races I have set up which includes all the Cheltenham festival races, for the Albert Bartlett he quotes one IRE race as a trial and doesn't view it as important, well has no stars anyway.
I would view it (The Golden Cygnet/Nathaniel Lacy) as more important than most of the GB races, especially the Haydock Prestige which he gives 3 stars.
Plus he misses out two significant trials at Navan and one at Limerick.
 
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I was on kittys as well rb ,and to be honest although i had backed it at 16/1,i was hoping that it would win for the williams clan after everything they have been through. considering the horse is still only 8 ,it is incredible the prize money it has won ,and the big races ,it has won ,or been there or thereabout. I was watching the replay yesterday, after the first circuit it resembled a Hurdle race ,it has changed beyond all comprehension. Not one faller in the National, (corach rambler was unseated) . and all those horses in with a chance after the last ,unbelievable. With my purest hat on it is a terrible shame ,but with my punters hat on it seems a hell of a lot easier to find the winner. last year i backed the first and second ,in the previous 10 yrs or more ,my best bet was Baltazar king finishing second! Up until the year Mcoy won it on Dont push it i was still telling friends and relatives to avoid anything carrying over 11st. The times are a changing.
 
pawras said:
Here's the trial race stats for the Gold Cup from 2000
I.e. for horses who have ran in the trial race and gone on to run in the following Gold Cup

View attachment 141301

One of the first things I looked at, when a few years ago I started down the road of target and trial races, was some of the 'Cheltenham Trail' info put out by Andy Gibson.
Look at my stats above and let me know if you think he should be quoting the Charlie Hall as trial for the Gold Cup? I'm genuinely interested to know if I'm missing something??
My stats say since 2000, 30 horses have gone from the Charlies Hall to the following Gold Cup and 0 have won and only 2 have placed.

View attachment 141300
Click to expand...
If and it’s a big if - certain trail races or pathway races could simply lead to the winner ? Is more down to those are only only races available for top class horses - if you knew you had an under cover class horse and we’re aiming at Gold Cup or what ever sure there are better practice routes than the ones we hear about
 
markfinn said:
If and it’s a big if - certain trail races or pathway races could simply lead to the winner ? Is more down to those are only only races available for top class horses - if you knew you had an under cover class horse and we’re aiming at Gold Cup or what ever sure there are better practice routes than the ones we hear about
Click to expand...

I think there could be an element of only certain races available to top class horses, however I ordered the report by the count of runners who have gone from the given trial race to the following Gold Cup since 2000. And as such you can see various races who have had plenty horses go to the Gold Cup with very different results.
Eg
Wetherby Charlie Hall = bad
Newbury Denman Chase = fairly good

The Cheltenham Arkle Challenge Trophy is a route less travelled but has produced a 71% ew strike, is that just because only 7 horses have tried or is it really a dark horse to keep an eye on?
 
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