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Cheltenham Festival 2024

Salvador ziggy is now 5s in the national hunt cup , i backed it at 8s, and think it will run a big race. corbetts cross has also come in from 6/1 to 5/2 in same race.
 
FANCIED HORSES, PUNTS & UK HORSES

Firefox 6/1 – Supreme Novices Hurdle
JPR One 8/1 – Arkle
Quilixios 10/1 – Arkle
Sharjah 33/1 – Arkle (yard say he’s running here and think he’s got a good chance)
Amirite 11/1 – Ultima (Irish horse to win the Ultima)
Ashroe Diamond 7/2 – Mares Hurdle
Ndaawi 8/1 – Boodles
Broadway Boy 10/1 – National Hunt Chase
Ile Atlantique 4/1 – Baring Bingham
Captain Guiness 20/1 – Queen Mother
Hiddenvalley Lake 12/1 – Coral Cup
Cuthbert Dibble 20/1 – Coral Cup
Foxy Jacks 14/1 – Cross Country
My Mate Mozzie 6/1 – Grand Annual
Path Doroux 10/1 – Grand Annual
Liberty Hunter 12/1 – Grand Annual
Triple Trade 33/1 – Grand Annual (or the Plate, if he runs)
Teeshan 11/2 – Champion Bumper
Iroko 11/2 – Turners Novices Chase
White Rino 10/1 – Pertemps (NAP)
Ash Tree Meadow 10/1 – Plate
Stage Star 9/2 - Ryanair
Pic D’Orhy 10/1 – Ryanair
Fugitif 20/1 – Ryanair
Sir Gerhard 7/1 – Stayers
Golden Ace 10/1 – Mares Novices Hurdle
Good Time Jonny 11/2 – Kim Muir
Angels Dawn 8/1 – Kim Muir
Apple Away 10/1 – Kim Muir
Salver 12/1 – Triumph Hurdle (run well in UK against UK horses)
Luccia 10/1 – County Hurdle
Bad 20/1 – County Hurdle (or Martin Pipe)
Dancing City 6/1 – Albert Bartlett (won well recently in a tough field)
Gidleigh Park 8/1 – Albert Bartlett (or in the Baring Bingham)
Captain Teague 10/1 – Albert Bartlett
Welcome To Cartries 25/1 – Albert Bartlett
Hewick 14/1 – Gold Cup
Corach Rambler 20/1 – Gold Cup
Riviere Detel 12/1 – Mares Chase
Marsh Wren 20/1 – Mares Chase (won quite well in Ireland recently)
Waterford Whispers 10/1 – Martin Pipe

I've got the bolded horses in a Super Heinz, but I will end up backing most of these horses, either in jockey/trainer/owner combinations, mixed up acca's, and/or doubles, trixies and singles.
 
One of my more speculative bets e/w at a big price was High Wind in the Triumph Hurdle ,i just think if willie improves its jumping it could run into a place. Sir Gino looks a very strong fav though and i have it in a few multiples.
 
  • Ferny Hollow has picked up another injury and won't be running in the Queen Mother.
  • Maughreen (JP McManus) appears to have been taken out - no longer in the Champion Bumper on any gambling site I've checked, I can't see any info on it anywhere though - no entries.
  • Meetingofthewaters has been taken out of the Kim Muir, now favourite in Ultima, still has other entries.
  • Burdett Road taken out of the Triumph Hurdle - no entries.
  • Firm Footings taken out of the Kim Muir, Ultima, Brown Advisory & Plate - no entries.
I missed some owner combinations on my previous post.....

Alymer Stud - My Mate Mozzie, Ash Tree Meadow, Letsbeclearaboutit, La Malmason
Gigginstown Stud - Brighterdaysahead, Jalon D'oudairies, Storm Heart, King Of Kingsfield, Gold Dancer, Quai De Bourbon, Cleatus Poolaw, Conflated, Favori De Champdou, Samcro, Cool Survivor, Run Wild Fred, Frontal Assault, Diol Ker, Embittered, Kaleosun, Harsh, Predators Gold, Search For Glory, Shanbally Kid, The Enabler, Will Do, Farouk D'alene, Beacon Edge, Flanking Manouever, Croke Park, Stellar Story,
Bective Stud - Firefox, Jigoro, Found A Fifty, Zanahir, Fakir D'alene, Riviere D'etel, Better Days Ahead, Hollow Games, Sa Fureur, The Yellow Caly, American Mike, Wingmen, Party Central, Casheldale Lad, Media Naranja, My Trump Card, The Bosses Oscar
Bryan Drew - Bravemansgame, Madara, Rare Middleton, Panic Attack
Malcolm Denmark - Chavez, Jungle Boogie, Gold Bullion,
Anne-Marie & Jamie Shepperd - Master Chewy, Undersupervision, Idalkho Bihoue

Ash Tree Meadow ran quite well at the weekend, maybe not enough time to recover properly and Letsbeclearaboutit is listed in the same race, so not sure which will run, or both.
 
And finally, I've reviewed the favoured horses in the Supreme and Ballymore/Baring Bingham, as I think it's important to get off to a good start, although, I might actually skip the Supreme in all of my acca's e.g. I could put a bunch of acca's on with Ballyburn, some with Firefox, some with Slade Steel and so on, then a 33/1 outsider wins and all my acca's have gone on the 1st race, I'd be gutted, so I might just skip it completely on my festival acca's.

Ballyburn
2m @ Punchestown – Yielding – beat Quantum Storm by 2 ¼L
2m @ Punchestown – Good/Yielding – beat Dancing City by 6L
2m @ Fairyhouse – Soft – beaten by Firefox beaten 2 ½L
2m4f @ Leopardstown – Soft/Heavy – beat Cleatus Poolaw by 25L
2m @ Leopardstown – Soft – beat Slade Steel by 7L

Tullyhill
2m2f @ Gowran – Soft/Heavy – beat Will Do by 3 ¼ L
2m @ Punchestown – Yielding – beaten by A Dream To Share beaten 3 ¾ L
2m6f @ Punchestown – Soft – beaten by Shannon Royale beaten 24L
2m @ Naas – Soft – beat Lightkeeper by 7L
2m @ Punchestown – Heavy – beat No Flies On Him by 9L

Jeriko Du Reponet
2m @ Newbury – Good/Soft – beat King William Rufus by 3 ¼ L
2m @ Newbury – Soft – beat Secret Squirrel by 1 ¾ L
2m @ Doncaster – Good – beat Lump Sum by 1 ¼ L

Firefox
2m4f @Navan – Yielding – beaten by Spirit Of Legend beaten 4L
2m @ Naas – Soft – beaten by Loughglynn beaten ¾ L
2m @ Navan – Good-Yielding – beat Mint Boy by 10L
2m @ Fairyhouse – Yielding/Soft – beat Ile Atlantique by ¾ L
2m1f @ Down Royal – Soft – beat Quint Major by 5 ½ L
2m @ Fairyhouse – Soft – beat Ballyburn by 2 ½ L
2m4f @ Naas – Soft – beaten by Readin Tommy Wrong beaten 8 ¾ L

Slade Steel
2m @ Punchestown – Soft – beat Captain Cody by ½ L
2m @ Punchestown – Good/Yielding – beaten by Ballyburn beaten 7 ¾ L
2m @ Naas – Soft – beat King Of Kingsfield by 5 ½ L
2m4f @ Navan – Heavy – beat Lecky Watson by ½ L
2m @ Leopardstown – Soft – beaten by Ballyburn beaten 7L

Mystical Power
2m @ Ballinrobe – Good – beat Perfect Nelson by 2 ¾ L
2m @ Galway – Soft – beat Samui by 7L
2m @ Punchestown – Soft – beat Jigoro by 7L

Ile Atlantique
2m @ Leopardstown – Soft – beat Feronily by 2 ¼ L
1m7f @ Naas – Yielding – beaten by Stellar Story beaten by A Head
2m @ Fairyhouse – Yielding/Soft – beaten by Firefox beaten ¾ L
2m @ Gowran – Heavy – beaten by Diamboy Des Carres beaten 19L
2m4f @ Naas – Soft – beaten by Readin Tommy Wrong beaten by A Neck

Readin Tommy Wrong
2m @ Ballinrobe – Good/Yielding – beat Arabian Diamond by 7L
2m @ Tipperary – Good/Yielding – beat Ah Remy Martin by 6L
2m @ Cork – Soft – beat Lisnagar Fortune by a Short Head
2m4f @ Naas – beat Ile Atlantique by A Neck

Jeriko Du Reponet and Mystical Power haven't faced off against anything as decent as the rest before really, and could find this tough, or could be less exposed and romp home, but I doubt it. Maybe Ballyburn, Firefox etc. aren't as good as we think, hence why some of the them have victories over each other, and it's really open e.g. Ballyburn has smashed Slade Steel twice, Firefox has beaten Ballyburn, but got beat by Readin Tommy Wrong, who also beat Ile Atlantique. Ballyburn, Firefox and Readin Tommy Wrong are the best horses in these two races, based on their record so far.
 
I saw or read somewhere willie talking about Mystical power seems to improve and surprise him everytime it runs on the track.Does its best work in actual races.The horse is actually co owned by Rich Richi ,jp and magnier ,but runs in the green and gold ,and bred in the purple.
 
pawras said:
I've been having a squint at the Champion Hurdle, should Constitution Hill really be 1/3 against Stateman at 4/1 antepost at this stage?

I don't like going against odds on shots and I know last year Constitution Hill beat Stateman by 9L , but this century 17 have have tried to win the Champion Hurdle 2 yrs running and only 3 have succeeded

Also Stateman went on to win Punchestown Champion Hurdle Stakes at the end of April, and this century 11 winners of that race have gone on to run in the following Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and 6 have won (54.55%)
Click to expand...
I bet those who took 4/1 then are happy now
 
Aye, I've got State Man at 6/1 and 5/1 on several of my acca's, but there will be £0.80p rule deduction so more like the 1/3 he is now.

It's a shame Constitution Hill isn't running.

Also, in case anyone missed it due to the focus on Constitution Hill, Marine Nationale has been taken out of the Arkle - two short-priced favourites gone. I suppose it's par for the course at the moment, the amount of non-runners is shocking, Saturday was a shit show, and Sunday had more non-runners than runners! I hope the festival isn't ruined. This is why the final declarations should be one week (or two week's) before it starts, yes if they're injured and can't run they get taken out, otherwise we know now who's running where and if they take it out for any other reason than injury they should get fined.
 
Ha, yes Stedz, posted at same time! Shame, I wasn't backing Marine Nationale anyway, so not so bothered about that one, just shortens the prices of all the other horses.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Aye, I've got State Man at 6/1 and 5/1 on several of my acca's, but there will be £0.80p rule deduction so more like the 1/3 he is now.

It's a shame Constitution Hill isn't running.

Also, in case anyone missed it due to the focus on Constitution Hill, Marine Nationale has been taken out of the Arkle - two short-priced favourites gone. I suppose it's par for the course at the moment, the amount of non-runners is shocking, Saturday was a shit show, and Sunday had more non-runners than runners! I hope the festival isn't ruined. This is why the final declarations should be one week (or two week's) before it starts, yes if they're injured and can't run they get taken out, otherwise we know now who's running where and if they take it out for any other reason than injury they should get fined.
Click to expand...
Looks like some of my fivefolds will be Doubles and some of my Fourfolds will be singles LOL.
 
Apparently, although I don't know/haven't checked so not 100% certain, but I've been told that Antepost doesn't have a rule 4 deduction, but NRNB does. If correct, that could be good for some people, not me though, all my bets are NRNB, but at least they void.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Apparently, although I don't know/haven't checked so not 100% certain, but I've been told that Antepost doesn't have a rule 4 deduction, but NRNB does. If correct, that could be good for some people, not me though, all my bets are NRNB, but at least they void.
Click to expand...
I saw prices the other day NRNB state man 4/9, constitution hill 8/11
all I can say is if they apply rule 4 deductions to NRNB markets that they are betting to over 200% then the only word for that is bonkers.🤪
 
I had a row with Bet Fred over this years ago.unless you are prepared to take them to the small claims courts you are fecked ,and they know 90% of punters wont so they get away with it.
 
The question is..... Is NRNB considered to be an Antepost bet? It should be really, since it's placed before the betting market has opened, but none of the betting sites I've checked specifically refer to NRNB as Antepost. I've just been through SkyBet, Coral & Bet365 rules, they all say Antepost doesn't have a Rule 4 Deduction (as per the official Tattersals Rule 4 guidance), but none of them specifically refer to NRNB as Antepost, or say that there's no Rule 4 for NRNB. But from what I've read and how it was worded, I do think NRNB is an Antepost bet, and neither should have a Rule 4 deduction. I hope that's right anyway.
 
I watched a 3 hour preview show last night with David Mullins, Keith Donoghue and 3 others, with David Jennings hosting, I can't seem to find a link right now but if I do I'll post it up. Anyway, here are a few horses that are fancied by the yards, and are shortening today as a result (I was taking notes, it's a very sad life I live)....

HORSES FANCIED BY THE YARD

  • Hunters Yarn (now 5/1) – Arkle – W P Mullins
  • Ose Partir (now 10/1) – Boodles – Martin Brassil
  • Flooring Porter 10/1 – National Hunt Chase – G P Cromwell
  • Predators Gold (now 10/1) – Ballymore/Baring Bingham (now called Gallaghers Novices Hurdle) – W P Mullins
  • Monty’s Star (now 9/2) – Brown Advisory – H De Bromhead
  • My Mate Mozzie 6/1 – Grand Annual – G P Cromwell
  • Romeo Coolio (now 8/1) – Champion Bumper – Gordon Elliott
  • Ginny’s Destiny (now 11/4) – Turners – Paul Nicholls
  • Gabbys Cross (now 10/1) – Pertemps – H De Bromhead
  • King Of Kingsfield (now 6/1) – County Hurdle – Gordon Elliott
  • Quai De Bourbon (now 9/2) – Martin Pipe – W P Mullins
 
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Big shake up in a few of the markets. Still a week to go and alot can happen.

If Irish point goes to the champion hurdle instead of the stayers then I'd be more keen on flooring porter for the stayers. I'm struggling to see where the pace is in here, he's a known front runner, could he knick it from the front, the 2 he won were better renewals than this. Teapuhoo couldn't win a poor stayers last year, can't have it not at that price.
 
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