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I can confirm that Honey I'm Good has run her race. On formlines I assess her at these weights, 22 and a quarter lengths in rear of My Girl Katie for this race. This is on her 4th Edgewell, 23rd June, Newton Abbot. This is linked to formlines involving My Girl Katie's last run at Newton Abbot, through Great D'Ange and Testflight.

Honey I'm Good has been beaten 20 lengths by My Girl Katie. This is about right.

Referring to her being beaten 20 lengths and still running her race, highlights how terribly handicapped she is.
 
Well done quiet gambler quiet gambler :handgestures-thumbup:
quiet gambler said:
I have chosen to back My Girl Katie £20 at 9/4 36 Vegas. I see since my bet, a 5/2 at Boyle Sports is available. This 9/4 is a profit of £45.

But I also bet £20 WIN Great D'Ange at 11/4. So that is a profit of £55.
Click to expand...
If you're interested, I made a Dutch calculator. You could've split your £40 across the pair to ensure the same profit, whichever one wins. This is especially useful if you prefer the shorter of the two.

See:
Dutching Calculator
 
Thanks very much BC. I have heard of this. A friend of mine likes to back 2 in a race, usually favourite and 2nd favourite. A big one of his I remember was Yeats and Coastal Path, in the 2008 Ascot Gold Cup. He also likes betting short and odds on favourites, on the Tote place.
 
Thursday 5.12 Newton Abbot

Premier Fantasy. He was taken out of today's race at Newton Abbot and is running in a novices handicap chase. Premier Fantasy has run very well when 3rd to My Girl Katie 19th July.
 
Refering to that run by Honey I'm Good 20 lengths in rear of My Girl Katie and I say she run about right and is so terribly handicapped by handicapper, this says how terrible that Edgewell race was at Newton Abbot.

Testflight 4th to Edgewell, run a bit below last time in rear of My Girl Katie but even so at peak, it was just a few lengths and if ground hadn't been so firm, Testflight would have run just a few lengths better but regardless of this, would have been well beaten. Testflight could have run 5 and a quarter lengths better on Good (Good to Firm in places) rather than Good to Firm (Good in places). Testflight was handicapped from 4th to Edgewell on Good (Good to Firm in places), when in fact he could have run 8 and a half lengths better, if ground had been good. Testflight could have run another 8 and a half lengths better again, if ground had been Good.

I await Benny Baloo as he hasn't run since, but thinking a poor run. Handicapper put them up for running well, in a poor race. This is a price to pay.

I said at time that would be it for Edgewell, but he took a race next time! I couldn't assess it, but think it must have been a terrible race!
 
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It is Newton Abbot. There is a 3 mile 2 furlong chase 15.47. You know I'm having a bet!

I have bet TESTFLIGHT £20 E/W at 10/1 with 36 Vegas.

Testflight has good ground and is 8 and a half lengths better on this, than good (good to firm in places). Also, Testflight's last run was even worse, it was good to firm (good in places), Testflight run another 5 and a quarter lengths worse in that race in addition to Testflight being 8 and a half lengths worse, on good (good to firm in places). Testflight run 13 and three quarters below peak, in that last race. Testflight has right going, at Newton Abbot, good.

Testflight beat My Girl Katie and Great D'Ange at Newton Abbot, July 19th last year, it was good going. Testflight is 5lb better for being 2 and a quarter lengths in front of Great D'Ange. Therefore, Testflight should be 7 and a quarter lengths in front of Great D'Ange, Testflight receiving 29lb.

Also a line through Premier Fantasy to puts Flashy Boy 14 and a half lengths behind Great D'Ange, at level weights. Great D'Ange gives 19lb to Flashy Boy. Therefore, Flashy Boy should be 4 and a half lengths in front of Great D'Ange, at these weights.

I have not a line for Fiskardo and Unspeakable is beat, on all known from.

I hoped to back my friend Great D'Ange, but seems there are better handicapped horses.

Testflight has been running on going, too quick, handicap has been lowered plus going is now right.

Forgot to put last time about Great D'Ange, that not just Great D'Ange has run 3 races nearish each other and that could be part reason for below form run, but also Great D'Ange and also Limerick Leader in that last race were both trying to lay up with that outsider that went very quick, Great D'Ange likes being in front and couldn't get there because of outsider set quick pace. I also think that quick pace could be in part, reason for weakening Great D'Ange and Limerick Leader, in last race. Trying to lay up with quick pace, could have sapped some energy.

Newton Abbot 3.47

Testflight 9st 13lb
2 3/4l Flashy Boy 10st 9lb
4 1/2l Great D'Ange 12st




.
 
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Testflight won so I got £250, £20 E/W at 10/1 with 36 Vegas. I said that Testflight has his good going and no firm in it and therefore a winner for me. I HAVE BEEN WAITING A YEAR TO BACK TESTFLIGHT BUT ALSO WAITING FOR GOOD GOING AND BECAUSE OF BELOW PEAK RUNNINGS ON GOING THAT HAD FIRM IN IT, HANDICAPPER RELENTED AND THIS RACE WAS TIME TO BACK HIM. I have been moaning at my mum for a year about backing Testflight when going is good, no firm in it.

I said Testflight would beat Flashy Boy 2 and three quarter lengths but Testflight beat Flashy Boy half a length. This says Flashy Boy has run 2 and a quarter lengths better than last race.

Great D'Ange travelling well turning in and soon beaten as I said Great D'Ange is finishing well in rear of Testflight. Great D'Ange emptied out very quickly after last. I hope Great D'Ange is alright. Something not right that Great D'Ange emptied out so quickly after last. Last run Great D'Ange emptied out but could have been because of 3 runs fairly near each other or because of pace so quick and Tom Broughton chose to try to lay up with quick pace like Limerick Leader. Great D'Ange and Limerick Leader both emptied last time and these were trying to keep up with very quick pace. I believe this is reason they both emptied out.

On subject of Limerick Leader, I have been waiting to back him and not been looking at racing a lot. See Limerick Leader took a race at 17/2, gosh big price. Limerick Leader is in Fontwell Tuesday, for those that are interested in backing him.
 
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Newton Abbot. A 3 mile 2 furlong chase. I'm having a bet again.

Testflight receiving 10lb beat Flashy Boy half a length at Newton Abbot. Including Testflights riders claim, Testflight now receives 18lb. Testflight is 8lb better for beating Flashy Boy half a length. This says Testflight is going to beat Flashy Boy 8 and a half lengths, at these weights. Flashy Boy is 2/1 favourite. Testflight is 7/2! This is an absolute insult. Testflight should be favourite. I was having £20 but now just upped it to £30 7/2 at 36 Vegas, a bookmaker I seem to keep taking money from.

Testflight £30 WIN 7/2 at 36 Vegas. 4.07 Newton Abbot.
 
Thanks for the like tacker.

Unfortunately 36 Vegas took my £30. Try not to spend it all at once, 36 Vegas. It is just a loan 36 Vegas. It is coming back!

Seriously though, Testflight gave his all, so brave and very upset he lost. He should have another win and it is a shame it wasn't this.

Beaten by a stable companion, I would be fuming if I was owner. Couldn't they have found another race to keep them separate?

There is Newton Abbot again Wednesday 28th October and it is last meeting of year. I'm hoping there is another 3 mile 2 furlong chase and Testflight is running.
 
I rarely bet on flat racing but happened to look at Ascot. I said to my mum Mount Atlas and looking at results after and fuming Mount Atlas 33/1. Having said that, I was also looking at Bay City Roller and that was beat. I thought that short price Kalpana would take that mile and a half race and that was beat also. I'm sure that this race was too soon for Kalpana, after Arc.
 
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21st October Fontwell 4.17.

I'm looking at a horse Elpologreg. Trained by Seamus Mullins and gets good results from slow horses. I remember Might As Well, Or Sing About and Brunettes Only.

I think this looks a bet.
 
Thanks Mark and for your likes also.

Just looked at Fontwell and my eyes almost jumped out of my head. I can't believe Elpologreg is 28/1. I thought could be as short as 7/2 and £20 WIN. Looking at that price now thinking is it £10 E/W or £20 E/W?

I have chosen as so big, £20 E/W Elpologreg 28/1 with Unibet.
 
Lost £40. When I looked at that race Saturday, I also looked at Uncle Al but thought just be one handed, in this race.

I was surprised Jonjo O'Neill's horse Saint Aaron was so big 40/1 and not surprised it was 2nd. There were a lot of tempting prices, in that race. Hardy Buck was a big price also.
 
Hi quiet gambler quiet gambler , just read through the thread and well done for taking on what i consider to be a very difficult form of betting ie NH racing and in large part summer jumping, not really for me but i thought because you mentioned Jonjo O'neill today and i spotted he had a runner tomorrow 3.37 carl, a cl5 hdl race 3yr old + hdc.
Jonjo's horse here is ROYAL RHYTHM 10yr old who appears to be running with some consistency recently and his style of racing prominently in a way i think to counter a lack of pace late on.
He's won a couple of races before a decent 4th in a better class 4 race lto.
If we go back to aug 19th cl5 he was fairly dominant in winning 9L and worth noting the 2nd has won a couple of novice races since.
He also boosted the form when winning fontwell off a mark of 96 so 9lbs higher, there was a bit of fortune involved but not a bad run.
That brings us to his last run which was a class4 again off 96, only 4th btn 20L , while that doesn't appear to good it's worth remembering i think that the first 3 home were all rated over 100 and all three could be said to have boosted that form though he did appear woefully short of pace that day.
Tomorrows race carl 20f is back down to a cl5 and imo there's a definite gulf between cl4 and cl5 , that might sound obvious but i believe there's something in it, maybe the handicapper agreed since he put him up another 2lbs.
The opposition is more difficult to weigh up imo in that some appear out of form recently and maybe a lack of fitness with others so i can see RR running well here and just checking his price of 7/1 might be an ew bet, i'll be honest i haven't backed it yet but just wanted to contribute to the thread.
 
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