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3 Year Olds

tacker

Mare
A lot of this improving 3yr old horses logic is about those that are progressing faster than the handicapper can keep up with, i think 4 horses running tomorrow fit that criteria.

2.40 CRYSTAL PEGASUS
3.00 SPIRIT DANCER
3.30 WONDROUS WORDS
4.55 LIFE MATTERS

All 4 won last time out by the way and such horses seem to do well at this time of year.
 
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Hamilton 4.40 Liberty Power

Poor price, but LP is one of only two 3yo's in the race and although the mark of 65 is effectively a guess, I'd reaally expect significant improvement on h/c debut.

The trainer/owner strike rate is 14/87= 16%, for a small loss of £4.00. With no owner filter on HRB, I'd be confident the stat would show a blind profit when filtered to h/caps.

He bombed lto at 25/1, falling out the stall and finishing out the back, but it's worth considering the 1st and 2nd are rock solid C2 horses ( likely to be revised to 98 & 86 next week).

He has finsihed behind Ilaraab in two of his maidens, who won the big Newbury h/c yesterday and is now 4th best in the Cambridgshire betting.

At risk of contradicting myself, his 2nd maiden looks moderate at first glance, but actually looks like it will produce progressive 3yo's in future.

I'd expect the horse to benefit off a 39 day break, after 3 quick maiden runs and hopefully the tongue tie will help. If it was another run out, I would have expected the horse to have been placed in C5 class.

The trainer is 4/15 = 26% for a £50 profit over the last 7 days.

I failed to mention the mare's only other offspring in the uk were both 80+ horses.
 
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tacker

Mare
I've gone back to have another look at this horse but unless the tongue tie brings about a lot of improvement in him i just can't see it winning.
Earlier i considered backing Edgar Allan Poe who can now run in this 0-65 cl6 and if running to last years form would have a chance off a mark of 64.
Best of luck with LP doomster doomster .
 

tacker

Mare
5.25 ayr EAGLE COURT 3yr old.

Only run as a 2yr old was only fair but he left that run way behind when surprising at 33/1 at ponte, just about last turning in he wore down the runner up close home, BINT AUSTRALIA rated 76 and who went on to run a previous winner of gosdens BIZZI LIZZI, the 3rd horse there MOUNTAIN DREAM had also won before so maybe BA is of a decent standaed. Back to that ponte race where the fav HEAVEN FORFEND finished 3rd had previousl been given a mark of over 90 but clearly that was silly , still anything around 80 would be fine where today the top weight STAR SHIEL (also trained by O'meara) is rated 81. So it comes down to whether EC can further improve now racing with a much longer straight and i would say yes but the negatives are being drawn in 12 and some of the value has gone with bet 365 11/2 - 7/2.

Trying to explain these bits of form on a page isn't easy but the idea is to invite anyone interested to view it for themselves, there are other formlines with both GLOBAL SPIRIT & CLASSY O that could be worth a second look.
Held up over another 2f and wins 12/1 on a mark of 82 which he was due to drop 2lbs in future, tough old game.
 

tacker

Mare
1.50 newm BIZZI LIZZI
This filly won a decent maiden on debut over c/d, those behind haven't dramatically boosted the form but she gave every indication she would progress further. her next run again over 8f wolv she won but only just and while the form looks ordinary it was a slowly run race and probably didn't suit, so i was waiting for her to race off her 84 mark but here she is running in a listed race with dettori taking over. I suspect Gosden would know how good she is or at least will become so i think it worth trusting his judgement to go straight into a listed race with her and even though she has drifted out to 8/1 i'm happy to have a bit on at that price.

The fav here is CLOAK OF SPIRITS rated 106 so it shows just what a big tasks she (bizzi) faces in a field of 17 runners and all of them rated higher than her so every chance i've got this wrong.
 
Best of luck T tacker

It's the kind of race I would stay well clear of.

Gosden does have a good record in the race with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 attempts since it was moved to Newmarket in 2011.

Haggas is 3/10, with 2 winners coming in last 2 years @ 8/1 & 5/1, but he's got 4 in this.
 

tacker

Mare
Best of luck T tacker

It's the kind of race I would stay well clear of.

Gosden does have a good record in the race with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 attempts since it was moved to Newmarket in 2011.

Haggas is 3/10, with 2 winners coming in last 2 years @ 8/1 & 5/1, but he's got 4 in this.
Yeah of course it's a difficult race and i've only had a small bet but nevertheless we have seen gosden do this before and he certainly knows what he's doing.
 
Wolver 5.40 Animal Instinct

I'm not a fan of SMP as a trainer and Impatiient does offer a real threat, but the latter at least ensures a reasonable price here at 2/1+, with only Sansevero that can be classed as unexposed and he is unfancied in this market.

Animal Instinct was beaten lto by This Is Us, a rock solid C2 performer rated in the 100's. It was a weak C2 event, but AI drops to c4 grade today with the c/p's added.

The novice he won last back end looks sound with the 2nd now rated 91, so off 83 today ( due to go up 2lb) still looks potentially fair.

The horse has only run twice this year and lst run was off a break, so still room for improvement.

In typical SMP fashion, the horse has another 4 entries this coming Saturday/ Monday.

Sermon could be the spoiler assuming AI attempts to lead, the former's last win at the track over 6f hasn't worked out. His turf form is fairly consistent and he is tempting at 10/1, especially as a back to lay bet, but I can't see the same upside in form, compared to the selection.

The trainer has a 34% SR at the track in h/caps over September/ October, with 3yo in 3yo+ events for a £21 profit.
 

pete

Dam
for some reason Morris was adamant that he wanted to take the outside line vs Sansevero. That one caused him bother the entire race, first holding him in, then carrying him right most of the home straight, horse not good enough today, but did not get a great run/ride.
 

tacker

Mare
4.40 notts ARABIAN WARRIOR
Looks one paced and might benefit from going up to 16f from 12f , also back on turf but no reason to think that would be a problem providing the weather doesn't intervene. I think his last 2 runs have shown a level of form along with the wfa allowance to be a clear fav for this race and should go very close.
 
Windsor 4.40 Monday. Sweet Reward

I backed him when last on soft and whilst I think the track won't suit, I'd guess the trainer's hand has been forced as he looks likley to go through the heavy.

Stall 15 should be fine assuming the jock attempts to get an early pitch.

Currently 13/2, I will wait until tomorrow with the risk of R4.

I like the chances of Sweet Reward in the apprentice h/cap in the 6.10 at Newbury, with my only real concern being the going. However, he is more than double the price of the fellow 3yo fav.

Had three runs as a 2yo, which he had little chance of winning or placing in any, especially his 2nd one.

Gelded over the winter, probably needed first run but still run with credit at Windsor : slowly away/ wide run.

Big improvement lto at 25/1 to finish 3rd with the 2nd winning nto and not disgraced in C2 grade on next run.

The drop back 1f under todays going looks ideal and trainer does utilize todays jockey.

15/2 looks fair to me.
 
Goodwood 3.25 Amarillo Star @ 25/1
Eye Of The Water @ bf sp

70/30 split


I actually thought AS was a non runner as I scrolled down the odds to find the horse, as I can't fathom why the horse's odds are so big.
Has a lay off to contend with, but I'd guess the trainer would be waiting for a bad ground h/cap.

He ran a sound race as a 2yo in the Redcar Trophy, btn 6lths, but conceeding weight to all bar one, including the first five home rated:
109 ( over a stone)
101 (4lb)
95 (2lb)
86 (10lb) . Now rated 102


The horse behind in 6th is now raated 96.

His run at Newcastle was enough for me to think he can win off 87 and this is the horse's h/cap debut.

I've thrown in Eye Of The Water as a saver. The 4yo copes with bad ground and could dominate if they come near side and concerns me more than Alaadel and Typhoon Ten.

200% stake chicken trades in running on both around 1.28, as I do expect a few to trade low at the finsish.
 

tacker

Mare
Goodwood 3.25 Amarillo Star @ 25/1
Eye Of The Water @ bf sp

70/30 split


I actually thought AS was a non runner as I scrolled down the odds to find the horse, as I can't fathom why the horse's odds are so big.
Has a lay off to contend with, but I'd guess the trainer would be waiting for a bad ground h/cap.

He ran a sound race as a 2yo in the Redcar Trophy, btn 6lths, but conceeding weight to all bar one, including the first five home rated:
109 ( over a stone)
101 (4lb)
95 (2lb)
86 (10lb) . Now rated 102


The horse behind in 6th is now raated 96.

His run at Newcastle was enough for me to think he can win off 87 and this is the horse's h/cap debut.

I've thrown in Eye Of The Water as a saver. The 4yo copes with bad ground and could dominate if they come near side and concerns me more than Alaadel and Typhoon Ten.

200% stake chicken trades in running on both around 1.28, as I do expect a few to trade low at the finsish.
AMARILLO STAR ....I get what you're saying doomster doomster but heavy ground and 225 days off would be a bit of a negative imo.

SWEET REWARD ....Won his race on sft so might well cope better that most with heavy, looks to have every chance tbh.
 
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