What a race - with half the field getting 7lb it looks odds on to fall to a three year old - which one is the question
Held up over another 2f and wins 12/1 on a mark of 82 which he was due to drop 2lbs in future, tough old game.5.25 ayr EAGLE COURT 3yr old.
Only run as a 2yr old was only fair but he left that run way behind when surprising at 33/1 at ponte, just about last turning in he wore down the runner up close home, BINT AUSTRALIA rated 76 and who went on to run a previous winner of gosdens BIZZI LIZZI, the 3rd horse there MOUNTAIN DREAM had also won before so maybe BA is of a decent standaed. Back to that ponte race where the fav HEAVEN FORFEND finished 3rd had previousl been given a mark of over 90 but clearly that was silly , still anything around 80 would be fine where today the top weight STAR SHIEL (also trained by O'meara) is rated 81. So it comes down to whether EC can further improve now racing with a much longer straight and i would say yes but the negatives are being drawn in 12 and some of the value has gone with bet 365 11/2 - 7/2.
Trying to explain these bits of form on a page isn't easy but the idea is to invite anyone interested to view it for themselves, there are other formlines with both GLOBAL SPIRIT & CLASSY O that could be worth a second look.
Yeah of course it's a difficult race and i've only had a small bet but nevertheless we have seen gosden do this before and he certainly knows what he's doing.Best of luck T tacker
It's the kind of race I would stay well clear of.
Gosden does have a good record in the race with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 attempts since it was moved to Newmarket in 2011.
Haggas is 3/10, with 2 winners coming in last 2 years @ 8/1 & 5/1, but he's got 4 in this.
I like the chances of Sweet Reward in the apprentice h/cap in the 6.10 at Newbury, with my only real concern being the going. However, he is more than double the price of the fellow 3yo fav.
Had three runs as a 2yo, which he had little chance of winning or placing in any, especially his 2nd one.
Gelded over the winter, probably needed first run but still run with credit at Windsor : slowly away/ wide run.
Big improvement lto at 25/1 to finish 3rd with the 2nd winning nto and not disgraced in C2 grade on next run.
The drop back 1f under todays going looks ideal and trainer does utilize todays jockey.
15/2 looks fair to me.
AMARILLO STAR ....I get what you're saying doomster but heavy ground and 225 days off would be a bit of a negative imo.Goodwood 3.25 Amarillo Star @ 25/1
Eye Of The Water @ bf sp
I actually thought AS was a non runner as I scrolled down the odds to find the horse, as I can't fathom why the horse's odds are so big.
Has a lay off to contend with, but I'd guess the trainer would be waiting for a bad ground h/cap.
He ran a sound race as a 2yo in the Redcar Trophy, btn 6lths, but conceeding weight to all bar one, including the first five home rated:
109 ( over a stone)
86 (10lb) . Now rated 102
The horse behind in 6th is now raated 96.
His run at Newcastle was enough for me to think he can win off 87 and this is the horse's h/cap debut.
I've thrown in Eye Of The Water as a saver. The 4yo copes with bad ground and could dominate if they come near side and concerns me more than Alaadel and Typhoon Ten.
200% stake chicken trades in running on both around 1.28, as I do expect a few to trade low at the finsish.