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3 Year Olds

markfinn said:
Morning Tacker




Possibly - almost certainly some not sure how you can eliminate them - these are rough guides - after all you still need to analyse the races - just race alerts

Impact value

Wax - Wins above or - below expected

Expected Wins
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Further to this point in the 1.30 muss tomorrow i can count 4 qualifiers, so even with a little class 5 handicap we have a situation where if one of them wins it will still show a negative with regards to the earlier stats. I take the point made by markfinn markfinn that it is only a guide and further work might be needed but perhaps it does demonstrates to some degree that some stats warrant a closer look or maybe not. ????
 
tacker said:
Further to this point in the 1.30 muss tomorrow i can count 4 qualifiers, so even with a little class 5 handicap we have a situation where if one of them wins it will still show a negative with regards to the earlier stats. I take the point made by markfinn markfinn that it is only a guide and further work might be needed but perhaps it does demonstrates to some degree that some stats warrant a closer look or maybe not. ????
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dont know what you mean but from 1st or 2nd time LTO only one would qualify Written Broadcast

read recent form in the Classification column - I just dropped it in there as its something I usually include in the sheets

1598378491819.png
Age 4 year olds are best in these - only one and DSLR would put me of

OR and Jockey stats best guide

1598379050772.png
Top weight daddy's Angel - looks hard to ignore

the other stats WAX etc are just guides on how the stats work out - used when looking at setting up alerts or systems
 
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When i used to back 3yo i confined my interest to 3yo only Hcaps and while long term i did not lose money the Roi was very low and i finally concluded not worth the additional effort. So often my picks ran well but where done by improvers. One situation which i did like was when i was able to take a rating earned in an all aged race and use it to make the bet when the animal returned to a 3yo only race. This was a few years ago and matters may have changed but might be worth a look for those who bet 3yos.
 
Thread is all about finding ways of using horses that have limited or low form - those that cam benefit from WFA in open age handicaps and such races that fall to those so called improvers - doing well at the moment and all extra input welcome -
 
Given that OR is the one which all others aspire to be, how do top 3yo OR in 3yo+ races do. i.e. if you just back top rated 3yo in 3yo+ races?
How about only back 3yo's that are also top OR in the race?
Handicappers can only rate a horse on form that has already happened. So if a 3yo in a race has also shown the best form to date ... and is supposed to be open to the most improvement, surely they will win more races ?
I have HRB, but fear it'd take me all afternoon to figure out how to input these queries.
 
Frank Boyle Frank Boyle - carry on mate - here to explore and learn - lets not confine this to one race any view on 3yr old races is the subject - I notice the one LTO qualifier from my idea is also best drawn - fillies only races are something to explore - how do we use that form against mixed sex .
 
pete said:
Given that OR is the one which all others aspire to be, how do top 3yo OR in 3yo+ races do. i.e. if you just back top rated 3yo in 3yo+ races?
How about only back 3yo's that are also top OR in the race?
Handicappers can only rate a horse on form that has already happened. So if a 3yo in a race has also shown the best form to date ... and is supposed to be open to the most improvement, surely they will win more races ?
I have HRB, but fear it'd take me all afternoon to figure out how to input these queries.
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Pete - there will be a few joint top rated involved - all 3 yr + handicaps

1598420333501.png
OR top rated 3yr old

1598420400992.png
 
Some confusion - 1st and 2nd is the search that I used for trying to see where 3year olds either won or almost won - as we know there are many unlucky close up 2nds or ones that just run into a better one on the day - but my aim is to find winners not placers from those that finished 1st or 2nd Lto ( because that profile 1st 2nd LTO have the highest success rate NTO).

hope that clears any doubt about my idea - but places also pay so what ever lights any ones candle is great. I cannot mangle Proform into a place output screen - so any Proform users help or HRB user screen probably can do it ? and would be appreciated.
 
I have not done the homework as no time - but Johnston targets this race every year - some one will know his SR

1598474989128.png

he has two 3 year olds this year both with top jockeys up
 
Our Criteria probably differ but the SR looks correct

1598475148868.png

Sometimes we have to just accept that these thing have a bearing and overcome our natural scepticism
 
tacker said:
The win percentage is now set at 18.09% but i need it explaining to me how this can be correct if has we often see there is more than one qualifier in the race.
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T tacker not exactly what you want but it is possible to d/l the results and further analyse them.
These 3yo's won 26% of the 14974 races they contested.
The Breakdown table indicates their respective OR Rank.
Thanks
 
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