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3 Year Olds

mick said:
It would help simplify matters . An alternative might be to increase the number of 3yo only hcaps and - or 4yo + races.
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If what is being said that WFA is somehow unfair then horses like grundy wouldn't have won the king george and queem liz, indeed he most probably wouldn't have run.
 
tacker said:
If what is being said that WFA is somehow unfair then horses like grundy wouldn't have won the king george and queem liz, indeed he most probably wouldn't have run.
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Agreed but i was speaking from a punters perspective, or at least my own. I feel that WFA makes form reading and interpreting ratings even more complex.
 
mick said:
Agreed but i was speaking from a punters perspective, or at least my own. I feel that WFA makes form reading and interpreting ratings even more complex.
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Complexity is the form readers friend imo, if anyone thinks that 3yr olds should be carrying the same weights as older horses then it follows you must think 3yr olds are well in by that same number so giving them a huge advantage.
My view is there is a small advantage in their favour but the main complexity is different lines of form in 3+ handicaps.
 
I like the chances of Sweet Reward in the apprentice h/cap in the 6.10 at Newbury, with my only real concern being the going. However, he is more than double the price of the fellow 3yo fav.

Had three runs as a 2yo, which he had little chance of winning or placing in any, especially his 2nd one.

Gelded over the winter, probably needed first run but still run with credit at Windsor : slowly away/ wide run.

Big improvement lto at 25/1 to finish 3rd with the 2nd winning nto and not disgraced in C2 grade on next run.

The drop back 1f under todays going looks ideal and trainer does utilize todays jockey.

15/2 looks fair to me.
 
doomster said:
I like the chances of Sweet Reward in the apprentice h/cap in the 6.10 at Newbury, with my only real concern being the going. However, he is more than double the price of the fellow 3yo fav.

Had three runs as a 2yo, which he had little chance of winning or placing in any, especially his 2nd one.

Gelded over the winter, probably needed first run but still run with credit at Windsor : slowly away/ wide run.

Big improvement lto at 25/1 to finish 3rd with the 2nd winning nto and not disgraced in C2 grade on next run.

The drop back 1f under todays going looks ideal and trainer does utilize todays jockey.

15/2 looks fair to me.
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Enjoyed reading the post and having looked at the horse i can see where you are coming from.
good luck doomster doomster
 
Took keen hold, chased leaders, headway 5f out, led 3f out, ridden over 2f out, clear 1f out, kept on well, comfortably (op 6/1) sp 8/1
Add 10yds. Modest handicap form, although an improving winner.

SWEET REWARD, third over 1m2f at Sandown last time, had no issue with the soft ground on this drop in trip and ran out a good winner. He looks most progressive and can win again, with him being versatile ground-wise.
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I was concerned about the 3yo Vulcan, but could not have any money on being a "strong puller". Settled better but was unfortunate to clip heels.

I'd be hopeful of Sweet Reward winning again nto
 
Windsor 6.30 Gonna Dancelot @ 16/1

Serious doubts about the filly being in wrong grade off 67 in a 0-85 ( against Haggis, Bin Suroor, Stoute, Beckett, Botti & Cowell), plus the soft ground is a concern.

However, I do think she is way overpriced and the betfair sp may be even more appealling. I'm probably wrong but I always think Jane Chapple-Hyam gets her fair share of big priced winners. I would have passed her over at single figures, but the current price is just too tempting.

If she bombs tomorrow, I will probably follow her over a cliff this season, as I do think she will pay her way.

GD has collateral form through Sweet Reward who I tipped up today via By My Side , who does actually look a 80 horse. That run was off a 10 month break, so no surprise to see some more improvement.

Also worth considering the owners only other horse with the stable is a 95 rated 2yo.

Common sense would say pass over this 3yo+ race , which is virtually all 3yo's and it's odds on that one of the Newmarket monopoly will have potential listed class runner here.

I'm already thinking I've been mugged over by the price, but I'm confident she will pay her way this season.
 
I looked at the race yesterday but didn't pick up on this filly but you make a solid case for her even after taking the caveats outlined.
as you say BE MY SIDE can be said to have given the form a boost , although btn 5L by ALMAREEKH and it worth noting that the 3rd SUELSH had won her last three races so it was a decent grade2

Going back to the sandown race the 3rd & 4th are genuine 70+ fillies but don't really boost the form, still it wouldn't be a shock to see her win this with a few ifs thrown in and market should help.

Win or lose it's a good post imo, good luck.
 
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