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3 Year Olds

doomster said:
Windsor 6.30 Gonna Dancelot @ 16/1

Serious doubts about the filly being in wrong grade off 67 in a 0-85 ( against Haggis, Bin Suroor, Stoute, Beckett, Botti & Cowell), plus the soft ground is a concern.

However, I do think she is way overpriced and the betfair sp may be even more appealling. I'm probably wrong but I always think Jane Chapple-Hyam gets her fair share of big priced winners. I would have passed her over at single figures, but the current price is just too tempting.

If she bombs tomorrow, I will probably follow her over a cliff this season, as I do think she will pay her way.

GD has collateral form through Sweet Reward who I tipped up today via By My Side , who does actually look a 80 horse. That run was off a 10 month break, so no surprise to see some more improvement.

Also worth considering the owners only other horse with the stable is a 95 rated 2yo.

Common sense would say pass over this 3yo+ race , which is virtually all 3yo's and it's odds on that one of the Newmarket monopoly will have potential listed class runner here.

I'm already thinking I've been mugged over by the price, but I'm confident she will pay her way this season.
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A great shout that ran really well to finish 2nd 11/1 sp, trainer in form and your confidence justified, well done doomster doomster
 
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Windsor 6.30 Gonna Dancelot @ 16/1
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2nd @ 11/1, beaten by the 5/4 fav.

Egan was dreadful on the filly and I would be concerned how she reacts next time out. He picked up a 3 day ban, but the horse never got rolling and was constantly off balance inside the distance.

Midfield, headway from 3f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon edged left and headed, kept on but held inside final furlong (op 12/1 tchd 10/1)
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Wolver 4.05 Lucky Face

My gut tells me this horse won't be winning until later in the year over further.

The trainer is 0/57 with his 3yo h/cappers in July and August, but 12/92 for a £40 profit from Sept to December.

I'd guess the horse could get into an even weaker race than this 0-55, by dropping another 2lb nto and stepping up to a mile.

The filly is totally freindless in the market at present and she may simply be regressive based on recent two runs ( TS of 0 & 14) but I'm prepared to back her today as her price will be healthy enough and feel she will pay her way at some stage, if her debut run can be believed.

She had no realistic chance in any of her maidens, pitched against 75 to 80 horses on all ocaasions, but whilst her debut run in March is not working out particularly well, she did show a lot of promise against fitter rivals, with the winner now 67 and 2nd a regressive 79.

Lucky Face off 52 looks capable if the trip is not too short.
Her debut run is worth a watch .
 
Lucky Face drifted from 14/1 to 50/1 sp, but she did contract on BF from 120 into 75, which was surprising as she was a total nutcase pre race, with several attempts to get her into the stalls.

Some publications report she was "awkwardly" away, when she actually reared up when the stalls opened. Her race was over by then, but she may have possibly placed with a decent start.

She would still interest me over 8.5f, but it would have to be in play based on her antics yesterday.
 
5.25 ayr EAGLE COURT 3yr old.

Only run as a 2yr old was only fair but he left that run way behind when surprising at 33/1 at ponte, just about last turning in he wore down the runner up close home, BINT AUSTRALIA rated 76 and who went on to run a previous winner of gosdens BIZZI LIZZI, the 3rd horse there MOUNTAIN DREAM had also won before so maybe BA is of a decent standaed. Back to that ponte race where the fav HEAVEN FORFEND finished 3rd had previousl been given a mark of over 90 but clearly that was silly , still anything around 80 would be fine where today the top weight STAR SHIEL (also trained by O'meara) is rated 81. So it comes down to whether EC can further improve now racing with a much longer straight and i would say yes but the negatives are being drawn in 12 and some of the value has gone with bet 365 11/2 - 7/2.

Trying to explain these bits of form on a page isn't easy but the idea is to invite anyone interested to view it for themselves, there are other formlines with both GLOBAL SPIRIT & CLASSY O that could be worth a second look.
 
Only looking top two - Catterick 13.55 plum drawn - dropped back in Class and Distance (sired by Galileo) - potentially Improving Stag Horn getting 9lb WFA will get the course and the going. Although running from out of the handicap (bully) I think its big ask for the Navigator ( looks held at an OR of 76) lumbered with an extra 6lb to beat Stag Horn here, going is soft at the moment and with more rain forecast doesn't fit his profile.
 
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Hi @tackeI think if the Trainer can get the Handicap Mark down to 78 or less Eagle Court should win again given favourable conditions
Looking at the Dams Progeny everything was good for Eagle Court, the only downside that I can see after the race is that Eagle Court is on BHA 82 and the Highest win for the Progeny was a BHA = 78 or less

C3E8BACC-D69E-4EEB-B6F9-103E86B2B14A.jpegA3B7BF82-FFB9-45D1-97EB-66E2A5939981.jpeg
 
The power of 3

Just looked at 3yrs finishing 1 or 2 lto - 2016 - 2021 - mixed age 3yr Plus - all course all distances - Gs - GD GF - Classes F E D C

1598338769716.png
 
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I am not an expert at these but no matter which way I cut it - sex - colt - geld - distance etc

1598339943172.png

there is massive advantage still to be had with WFA - I would avoid August as that is when sprint advantage ends and distance advantage just getting going for Sept and Oct
 
markfinn said:
I am not an expert at these but no matter which way I cut it - sex - colt - geld - distance etc

View attachment 88027

there is massive advantage still to be had with WFA - I would avoid August as that is when sprint advantage ends and distance advantage just getting going for Sept and Oct
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Hi markfinn markfinn
Can i ask what some of these mean ?
IV.........?
WAX......?
EX WINS............?

Also would it not be the case that some of those races would involve more than one qualifing 3yr olds with a 1st or 2nd lto to it's form and therefore might that increase the strike rate ?

Sorry if i'm misunderstanding.
 
Morning Tacker

tacker said:
more than one qualifing 3yr olds with a 1st or 2nd lto to it's form and therefore might that increase the strike rate ?
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Possibly - almost certainly some not sure how you can eliminate them - these are rough guides - after all you still need to analyse the races - just race alerts

Impact value

Wax - Wins above or - below expected

Expected Wins
 
markfinn markfinn I would generally be against 3yo's running in 3yo+ h/caps in C6.

Generally over bet on the basis they are open to improvement, when a fair chunk are regressive.

The two 10f h/caps at Bath yesterday were an example with both divs having two 3yo favs at Evens and 3/1.

Both failed to place.
 
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Morning all.

I was very taken with Stag Horn when beating Bondi Sands @ Goodwood.
Bred to be a progressive stayer but has pulled too hard on both runs since.
The reaching of 1st time headgear on testing ground looks a negative to me.
That said the trainer has a very good record with 1st time headgear runners when fav.

Watching brief for me.

Regards,
 
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