• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

2YO Rating

The Hare

Filly
Thanks @ LukeyBoy LukeyBoy will have a look at this, could be something different. My ratings are using ELO similar to Chess and used in many sports throughout the internet. They are probably not much good for horse racing as there are so few runs to use. I have the 2 sets, one that jsut compares the finishing time and the other based on converting the times and weights carried into form ratings.

Unlike most ELO Rating systems the ratings are fluid so that future events adjust previous ratings accordingly. I start all newcomers with a rating of 100 which means races with few previous runs are initially a very doubtful rating as the more newcomers the more likely the ratings will be unreliable. My other problem is when horses run very poorly, especially on soft ground as the ratings are exaggerated for the winners. The current top rated is very likely affecdted by this.

Will check your link tomorrow or Friday.

Cheers

Kevin
 

The Hare

Filly
Tomorrow including former to prated Dairerin. Will have to win easily to climb the ranks
 

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  • Friday.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
Tomorrow's runners with Dora Penny the most interesting in a decent race at Chepstow 7.00.

Oscula the 2nd top rated beat disappointing Dairerin but still some way behind.
 

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The Hare

Filly
Think I had forgotten to post today's runners above!! They were in the box awaiting Post Reply - not a great performance today. Top rated inIreland a 3rd Top on time at Lingfield - generally well short.

Just 2 tomorrow. A hot seller at Goodwood.
1622918344896.png
 

The Hare

Filly
Attached tomorrow runners with decent event at Haydock main feature.

Plus top rated on both methods and current level stake losses and summary. Been poor predictions today!
 

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  • Wednesday.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
Some top runners tomorrow including Bethersden Boy that was top rated until today brought it's race win down to a more appropriate level.

I'm A Gambler and Moony Beams plus Sovereign Prince (3rd to Bethersden Boy) in a hot race at Newbury add to the talent.

Ratings fared moderately today as newcomers continue to do well.
 

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  • Thu.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
The newcomers dominate again, many of the top rated running well below expectations due to the low number of reappearances in some races the ratings are often a little inflated.

On both ratings The Organiser of Joseph Tuite is now top.

Tomorrow attached. Thing I will run to the end of Royal Ascot and if it doesn't improve revert to standard Form Ratings. Not enough information for this method.
 

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  • Sat.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
Some more big fields with the best race a 4 runner event at Windsor with the moody Arboy Will returning.

The ratings have hit another trouble with the race won by Bosh having 3 well beaten so vastly inflating the figures. Will run to end of week then maybe a new version of ratings!
 

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  • Monday.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
Tomorrow including the race of the season so far. The Organiser and Gisburn lead the ratings, the Irish contender is well down on my Irish ratings, but the unrated American will probably be very dangerous.
 

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  • Tuesday.xlsx
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The Hare

Filly
Well I have decided to "Retire" this method! After a shocking run these are the figures of the Top 3 rated since I started posting.
1623781607213.png
As can be seen the LS1 is £1 level stakes on the Top and so on. The top rated have failed dismally and though the 2nd and 3rd top have performed reasonably, all at SP these figures. Perhaps laying the Top rated is a method!! Mainly though the reason was Berkshire Shadow was only 23rd after today. I have changed the performance of the last rating which has helped pushing it to 11th but still many winners of big distances affecting ratings. I have had an idea on how to compile the ratings and amend them using a different approach but it will be a while before I can sort the formulas out. Nothing to do with ELO though, stick to using that for sports with more data on performers.

Be back when I get the new method sorted. Tomorrow's and the leading ratings on attached.
 

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  • Wed.xlsx
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