LukeyBoy
Yearling
The Hare Sorry to jump on your thread but I came across this bookmark Juvenile Finish Pos that I've had sat around for a while.Might be of some interest or likewise absolute garbage!
2YO Rating
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
The Hare Sorry to jump on your thread but I came across this bookmark Juvenile Finish Pos that I've had sat around for a while.Might be of some interest or likewise absolute garbage!
The Hare
Gelding
Thanks @
LukeyBoy will have a look at this, could be something different. My ratings are using ELO similar to Chess and used in many sports throughout the internet. They are probably not much good for horse racing as there are so few runs to use. I have the 2 sets, one that jsut compares the finishing time and the other based on converting the times and weights carried into form ratings.
Unlike most ELO Rating systems the ratings are fluid so that future events adjust previous ratings accordingly. I start all newcomers with a rating of 100 which means races with few previous runs are initially a very doubtful rating as the more newcomers the more likely the ratings will be unreliable. My other problem is when horses run very poorly, especially on soft ground as the ratings are exaggerated for the winners. The current top rated is very likely affecdted by this.
Will check your link tomorrow or Friday.
Cheers
Kevin
LukeyBoy will have a look at this, could be something different. My ratings are using ELO similar to Chess and used in many sports throughout the internet. They are probably not much good for horse racing as there are so few runs to use. I have the 2 sets, one that jsut compares the finishing time and the other based on converting the times and weights carried into form ratings.Unlike most ELO Rating systems the ratings are fluid so that future events adjust previous ratings accordingly. I start all newcomers with a rating of 100 which means races with few previous runs are initially a very doubtful rating as the more newcomers the more likely the ratings will be unreliable. My other problem is when horses run very poorly, especially on soft ground as the ratings are exaggerated for the winners. The current top rated is very likely affecdted by this.
Will check your link tomorrow or Friday.
Cheers
Kevin
The Hare
Gelding
Some top runners tomorrow including Bethersden Boy that was top rated until today brought it's race win down to a more appropriate level.
I'm A Gambler and Moony Beams plus Sovereign Prince (3rd to Bethersden Boy) in a hot race at Newbury add to the talent.
Ratings fared moderately today as newcomers continue to do well.
I'm A Gambler and Moony Beams plus Sovereign Prince (3rd to Bethersden Boy) in a hot race at Newbury add to the talent.
Ratings fared moderately today as newcomers continue to do well.
The Hare
Gelding
The newcomers dominate again, many of the top rated running well below expectations due to the low number of reappearances in some races the ratings are often a little inflated.
On both ratings The Organiser of Joseph Tuite is now top.
Tomorrow attached. Thing I will run to the end of Royal Ascot and if it doesn't improve revert to standard Form Ratings. Not enough information for this method.
On both ratings The Organiser of Joseph Tuite is now top.
Tomorrow attached. Thing I will run to the end of Royal Ascot and if it doesn't improve revert to standard Form Ratings. Not enough information for this method.
The Hare
Gelding
Some more big fields with the best race a 4 runner event at Windsor with the moody Arboy Will returning.
The ratings have hit another trouble with the race won by Bosh having 3 well beaten so vastly inflating the figures. Will run to end of week then maybe a new version of ratings!
The ratings have hit another trouble with the race won by Bosh having 3 well beaten so vastly inflating the figures. Will run to end of week then maybe a new version of ratings!
The Hare
Gelding
Well I have decided to "Retire" this method! After a shocking run these are the figures of the Top 3 rated since I started posting.
As can be seen the LS1 is £1 level stakes on the Top and so on. The top rated have failed dismally and though the 2nd and 3rd top have performed reasonably, all at SP these figures. Perhaps laying the Top rated is a method!! Mainly though the reason was Berkshire Shadow was only 23rd after today. I have changed the performance of the last rating which has helped pushing it to 11th but still many winners of big distances affecting ratings. I have had an idea on how to compile the ratings and amend them using a different approach but it will be a while before I can sort the formulas out. Nothing to do with ELO though, stick to using that for sports with more data on performers.
Be back when I get the new method sorted. Tomorrow's and the leading ratings on attached.
As can be seen the LS1 is £1 level stakes on the Top and so on. The top rated have failed dismally and though the 2nd and 3rd top have performed reasonably, all at SP these figures. Perhaps laying the Top rated is a method!! Mainly though the reason was Berkshire Shadow was only 23rd after today. I have changed the performance of the last rating which has helped pushing it to 11th but still many winners of big distances affecting ratings. I have had an idea on how to compile the ratings and amend them using a different approach but it will be a while before I can sort the formulas out. Nothing to do with ELO though, stick to using that for sports with more data on performers.
Be back when I get the new method sorted. Tomorrow's and the leading ratings on attached.
The Hare
Gelding
Well after a break, I have completed the new ratings, not really Speed Figures though. Using the Timeform method and finishing times as per BHA site have converted to pounds ratings. Then using a method in the Bob Wilkins books have created fluid ratings that alter as each new detail comes to light.
The results are not really better but I have eliminated all horses that were beaten by more than 50 lbs, (not including weight). This has improved the ratings and prevented the anomalies of high ratings when horses are beaten a long way. From the same period of 29/5 onwards these are the results - nothing special I'm afraid!
Also attached ratings for today and tomorrow, adjusted for weight carried.
The results are not really better but I have eliminated all horses that were beaten by more than 50 lbs, (not including weight). This has improved the ratings and prevented the anomalies of high ratings when horses are beaten a long way. From the same period of 29/5 onwards these are the results - nothing special I'm afraid!
Also attached ratings for today and tomorrow, adjusted for weight carried.
