• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

2YO Rating

The Hare

Filly
Well the form turned round in the Listed race by the impressive Balding runner. Tomorrow a lot of races including a good event at Newbury with my current top rated, not backed up by the odds so a test of the ratings. The ground was quite soft that day and the strung out runners may have inflated the figure.
1621019678269.png
 

Larry

Mare
Last edited:

markfinn

Sire

Larry

Mare
If any rely on the market - the boom is tainted - right or wrong
Not 100% sure but I don’t think any of them take the market into consideration. Recently there were complaints of not enough interaction, this seems like a complaint of too much, where is the dividing line🤔
 

Larry

Mare
ps not being rude if I don’t answer but I’m just off to work pity as I was looking forward to today’s 2yo’s 😞
 

markfinn

Sire
Not 100% sure but I don’t think any of them take the market into consideration. Recently there were complaints of not enough interaction, this seems like a complaint of too much, where is the dividing line🤔
Larry good luck today - re last night - not going to get in to a silly conversation with any one - The dividing line is not reading the posts through before replying - I said "I" was confused not that there were to many - I will have joined in and interacted with most of the threads - on the second post I stated "If any" and the point was if the market takes over the rating either ruling a selection in or out it merely becomes a market influenced decision - similar to the 2nd fav system etc, I was asking for opinions not building walls.

Looking forward to the Sonic Boom's
 

The Hare

Filly
Thanks for the responses. Top rated nearly won the big race today but It's rating has fallen which is a little worrying. I had a low rating for the winner which appears to be an anomaly in the rating method. So now the 2nd in Dairerin first race has overtaken it, This appears to happen a lot after 2nd runs when others make large improvements.

Have amended the Form ratings by cutting figures in half after a change in the calculation formula. Originally I gave all horses a starting rating of 100, this is now 50. I amended the formula for each race to adjust for the average rating in the race compared to the average ratings for that race. This is more helpful in the time ratings, say a horse wins in 62.00 seconds and the 2nd is 0.10 seconds behind. When their ratings were both a 100 this would still make a change of 0.1 to the rating. Now I have adjusted this so the difference would be (100/62.5)*0.1 or 0.16 better as against 0.1 which seems better. The form ratings are starting on 50 - previously it seemed like a horse was 2lbs better for every pound you would expect. This should remove this, again due to the averaging just mentioned.

Tomorrow with a Group race in Ireland.
1621115548013.png
 

The Hare

Filly
Tomorrow's ratings attached. Some big fields of mostly modest performers but a couple of bright spots. The form ratings I have returned to the old style and started ratings on 100 again, The time ratings are on the new revised formula.

Group 3 won by 50/1 newcomer. Top rated below, the Irish horses have become underrated but only when there is some mixing will that be overcome.

1621187127999.png
 

Attachments

  • Monday 2yo.xlsx
    13.2 KB · Views: 2

4mandu

Yearling
Confused now - we a few 2yr old threads going inc a 1st time sire which is also 2yrlds
Hi sorry if i am posting my speed figures in the incorrect thread. Would people prefer if we posted 2yo speed figures here the reason i have not is The Hare The Hare started this thread so did not want to confuse the work he is doing.

Happy either way :)
 

The Hare

Filly
I hadn't realised there were so many other threads with 2yo's on. Don't look at the Inner Sanctum often enough. I have no problems people posting on here, but you are fine if you want to continue on the thread you are on, Compiling Speed Figures is it?
 

4mandu

Yearling
I hadn't realised there were so many other threads with 2yo's on. Don't look at the Inner Sanctum often enough. I have no problems people posting on here, but you are fine if you want to continue on the thread you are on, Compiling Speed Figures is it?
Yeah have been posting on a couple of threads but happy what ever is useful for people who may be interested.
 

The Hare

Filly
@ 4mandu 4mandu
I think the first race at Carlisle today showed up the problem in my ELO ratings. The problem being a lack of information. That first winner at evens was 3rd of the 4 rated in the race. I looked to see why and realised it was in a 4 runner race with only 1 running elsewhere. Now in this race were 2 runners who both ran pretty close to the last run. This has seen a massive improvement in the rating for that race - won by Armor, which has put the top 2 in my top 30. As i get more data the results will improve but not really a betting medium i would say! Be interesting for Greyhound racing, especially Graders at a track. Works well in sports events due to the more frequent competition between teams or players. Will keep going though as it's interesting!
I imagine you had El Caballo well clear based on your Armor rating so well done. If i get round to it will change the format to rating the horses similar to my Hong Kong form method using past and future runs if I can work out how to do,
Great work with your ratings,
 

4mandu

Yearling
@ 4mandu 4mandu
I think the first race at Carlisle today showed up the problem in my ELO ratings. The problem being a lack of information. That first winner at evens was 3rd of the 4 rated in the race. I looked to see why and realised it was in a 4 runner race with only 1 running elsewhere. Now in this race were 2 runners who both ran pretty close to the last run. This has seen a massive improvement in the rating for that race - won by Armor, which has put the top 2 in my top 30. As i get more data the results will improve but not really a betting medium i would say! Be interesting for Greyhound racing, especially Graders at a track. Works well in sports events due to the more frequent competition between teams or players. Will keep going though as it's interesting!
I imagine you had El Caballo well clear based on your Armor rating so well done. If i get round to it will change the format to rating the horses similar to my Hong Kong form method using past and future runs if I can work out how to do,
Great work with your ratings,
Thanks all credit goes to TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother as he has taught me so much and the figures are based on his core methodology

Yes i had El Caballo clear and running to a figure of 52 last time out that is above average on the scale we work to
 

4mandu

Yearling
Forgot to mention the great work and effort of
@ TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother. His devotion is amazing,
Could not agree more and is willing to share information and has been so helpful like many people on this forum.

This is my first season for a while creating speed figures, so i am enjoying the process and no doubt mistakes will happen but that is part of learning.
 
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