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2YO Rating

The Hare

Filly
Hello

There seems a lot of interest in 2yo racing so I decided to experiment with a rating method similar to the ELO ratings used in sport. I have never tried this before with horses so it is very experimental. Att the moment these ratings only take into account the finishing time from Results - The British Horseracing Authority and Latest Horse Racing News, Race Results, Race Cards, Race Tips & Fixtures.

I have not adjusted at all for weight carried, jockey allowance, going (that could be a problem on soft ground as horses are more spread out). It is purely an experiment.

All horses start with a rating of 100 and there ratings are computer calculated with ratings amended for all races as each new evidence comes to light.

There are many factors that can be changed in the ratings. The biggest variant is determining how much weighting to give the last race, so older results decay in value as newer evidence is entered. This as I say is purely experimental and I might try it on the Hong Kong data I have on another thread.

The important thing about these ratings are that the LOWEST figures are best. They should indicate the difference in ability for a race run in 100 seconds.

Any thoughts and advice welcome.

Kevin
 

The Hare

Filly
So to start I have 2 races in England today - Redcar and Cheltenham. Ratings below, Class rating is a guide to the quality of the race - 100 being average.
RATERUNS
RED 1.40All In Aladdin (IRE)
100.94​
1​
29/04/2021​
Balthassar (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
ClassBlack Hill Storm (IRE)
99.79​
3​
101.42​
Call Annie (GB)
101.94​
1​
Jam Tart (GB)
99.74​
1​
Rectifiable (IRE)
101.54​
1​
Twilight Minstrel (GB)
104.58​
1​
Vieux Carre (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
CHM 5.10Barging Thru (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
29/04/2021​
King of Speed (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Danger Close (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Established (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Lady Fanfare (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Tippy Toes (GB)
99.14​
1​
 

The Hare

Filly
For interrest these are my top rated. They are very dynamic changing though so could be totally different tomorrow. Also there is no way of comparing the Irish and GB figures so far, they just compare against themselves so the O'Brien/Stack runners are not necessarily better than the GB runners.
HorseRateTRAINER
Glounthaune (IRE)97.92A P OBrien
Arboy Will (GB)98.20John Bridger
Castle Star (IRE)98.24J A Stack
Chipotle (GB)98.26Eve Johnson Houghton
Tenebrism (USA)98.28A P OBrien
The Gatekeeper (IRE)98.30Mark Johnston
Bellarena Lady (GB)98.32Ed Dunlop
 

The Hare

Filly
Racing for tomorrow

GOO1.35Already Gone (IRE)
#N/A​
30/04/2021​
Koda Legend (IRE)
98.68​
Ard Up (GB)
#N/A​
Class: 99.35​
Goldenhurst (GB)
100.41​
Canonized (GB)
99.34​
Spoonful of Sugar (GB)
#N/A​
Rosa Mystica (IRE)
#N/A​
Lady Dollars (GB)
98.98​
MUS2.00Big Boy Harley (IRE)
#N/A​
30/04/2021​
Bond Chairman (GB)
#N/A​
Diamond Pearl (GB)
#N/A​
Joyous Days (IRE)
#N/A​
Mytilda (IRE) H
#N/A​
Costa Adeje (IRE)
99.70​
Nabeela (GB)
#N/A​
 

The Hare

Filly
The defeat of Koda Legend has brought the ratings for his previous race back in line. Obviously little running in 2nd races sees big changes in the ratings. The Newmarket race won by Desert Dreamer is creeping up the rankings but an improved effort from Canonized today it seems.

Two races tomorrow: I have adjusted the ratings to around 60 seconds as both 5f races just to give an idea of predicted time gaps. Lowest best still
THI 1.35Hotline Bling (IRE)
59.80​
1​
01/05/2021​
Jungle Bee (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Cotai Creek (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Class 100.07Honorah (GB)
59.59​
2​
On The River (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Red Warning (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Roano (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Van Zant (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Atomic Lady (FR)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Harwood Lady (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
The Brazen One (GB)
61.17​
1​
Totes Emosh (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Wee Loch Lass (GB)
59.61​
1​
DON 5.35Benzema (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
44317​
Cassiel (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Dr Youmzain (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Class 99.94Shaladar (FR)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Tyson (IRE)
59.96​
1​
Lucy Lulu (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
 

The Hare

Filly
The current top ratings - radical changes in the English runners! I did slightly change the method for horses beaten the equivalent of 100 pounds in rating terms I gave them a time based on what a 100 pounds beaten horse would achieve. Just too stop big affects on the ratings - a horse Out IN Yorkshire was much higher before I did this. Just from past experience using this on Greyhounds - something I may return too if successful.
HorseRateTRAINER
Glounthaune (IRE)98.06A P OBrien
Bellarena Lady (GB)98.20Ed Dunlop
Tenebrism (USA)98.30A P OBrien
Arboy Will (GB)98.30John Bridger
Boonie (IRE)98.32Kevin Ryan
Chipotle (GB)98.35Eve Johnson Houghton
Desert Dreamer (GB)98.35Stuart Williams
Castle Star (IRE)98.37J A Stack
Cheerupsleepyjean (FR)98.37J A Stack
 

The Hare

Filly
Figures changing quickly and Out IN Yorkshire and Arboy Will are back to the top - Out Of Yorkshire runs in best race yet tomorrow at Salisbury.
SAL 1.00Out In Yorkshire (GB)
58.80​
1​
02/05/2021​
Vaunted (GB)
59.55​
1​
Cashew (IRE)
60.35​
1​
Class 99.31Mirique (GB)
59.64​
1​
Banner Moonshine (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Hattie C (GB)
#N/A​
#N/A​
NEW 4.15Berkshire Phoenix (IRE)
59.80​
1​
02/05/2021​
Dig Two (IRE)
59.34​
1​
My Dubawi (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Class 99.32Secret Strength (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
War of Courage (IRE)
59.65​
1​

Top Rated
HorseRateTRAINER
Out In Yorkshire (GB)98.00Mark Johnston
Arboy Will (GB)98.05John Bridger
Glounthaune (IRE)98.05A P OBrien
Bellarena Lady (GB)98.15Ed Dunlop
Zoltan Star (GB)98.27Richard Hannon
Boonie (IRE)98.28Kevin Ryan
Desert Dreamer (GB)98.29Stuart Williams
Tenebrism (USA)98.30A P OBrien
 

The Hare

Filly
Lots of races tomorrow. See attached including Listed Race in Ireland, best so far.

Out in Yorkshire loses top spot as the Arboy Will race continues to impress. Top now - no link between Irish and British form yet.

Horse Rate TRAINER
Glounthaune (IRE) 98.05 A P OBrien
Arboy Will (GB) 98.09 John Bridger
Bellarena Lady (GB) 98.14 Ed Dunlop
Desert Dreamer (GB) 98.27 Stuart Williams
Tenebrism (USA) 98.30 A P OBrien
Silver Bullet Lady (IRE) 98.30 Roger Charlton
Zoltan Star (GB) 98.31 Richard Hannon
Out In Yorkshire (GB) 98.35 Mark Johnston
Castle Star (IRE) 98.36 J A Stack
Cheerupsleepyjean (FR) 98.36 J A Stack
Night Arc (GB) 98.38 Richard Hannon
 

Attachments

  • 030521.xlsx
    11.1 KB · Views: 3

The Hare

Filly
A few changes at the top after the Irish race and Lily Agnes best race in UK so far perhaps.

Next 2 days races and current to prated attached.
 

Attachments

  • 0405 and 0505.xlsx
    10.6 KB · Views: 3

The Hare

Filly
Just one race today. I guess the first at Chester yesterday has shown an amendment is needed. The going of Good to Soft!! The horses are spread out very well like soft in a very slow time. There needs to be amendments for times beaten in slower ground or the winners will end uo with inflated figures.

NON WTRUNSTRAINERFORM
CHS 4.15Forever Bright (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
David Loughnane
#N/A​
06/05/2021​
Graftonat (GB)
100.13​
4.00​
David Evans
79.65​
C2Mercurial (IRE)
99.32​
1.00​
Tom Dascombe
114.41​
Class 99.08Sir Min (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Ian Williams
#N/A​
Zoltan Star (GB)
98.39​
1.00​
Richard Hannon
141.69​
Fifteen Summers (IRE)
#N/A​
#N/A​
Adrian Keatley
#N/A​
Russellinthebushes (IRE)
98.50​
1.00​
Tom Dascombe
125.84​
 

The Hare

Filly
Ratings for 4 races tomorrow, The Speed figures lowest are best, Form highest nest - ratings as in pounds and adjusted for weight carried, so minus Jockey's Allowance.

Also Top Rated on Form are included - no adjustments made for the going as yet - I believe the winners of Softer ground races are inflated but need to look at a way of amending them.
 

Attachments

  • 0705.xlsx
    12 KB · Views: 2

The Hare

Filly
Races for tomorrow. Decent race at Ascot as the standard of horses improves and lots of newcomers and massive improvers winning. The rate column are the Speed ratings and lowest is best, the form ratings are adjusted for weight and in pounds.

1620409124770.png
The current top rated on time/speed – no account of weight, just actual time. The ratings are based on seconds with 100 average. There is no correlation between Irish and UK ratings as yet until they run against each other.
1620409433890.png
 

The Hare

Filly
2yo's return tomorrow with 3 modest races, though a couple of interesting runners at Lingfield. Maybe some good newcomers at Windsor.

1620585377931.png
 

The Hare

Filly
Results so far - 26 races including previous runner, 1 with a joint top rated (stake split) to a £1 stake. A loss typical to average so nothing special as yet.

1620669999967.png
 

The Hare

Filly
Well some decent efforts today with 4 of the newcomers entering my Top 10, 3 from York and the impressive Instinctive Move at Bath. The Irish ratings are still uncorrelated with the English so a lot will change when that happens. Today the O'Brien 1-2 was against poor opposition so they don't get high ratings as yet. Good races again tomorrow.
1620859568682.png

And the top rated on Form ratings:
1620859601259.png
 

The Hare

Filly
First Listed race of the UK season, competitive little Fillies race at York. Should help sort the ratings out, that result. Very close. It seems my ELO ratings are exaggerating the form advantage, perhaps 2 for 1. They are meant to be in pounds, but perhaps will settle down at a later date. Lots of newcomes likely to win the other races though Gisburn at Newbury has a decent rating, but Hannon horses are not repeating their runs 2md time out.

1620934953235.png
 
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