2YO Rating

[The Hare]

Hello

There seems a lot of interest in 2yo racing so I decided to experiment with a rating method similar to the ELO ratings used in sport. I have never tried this before with horses so it is very experimental. Att the moment these ratings only take into account the finishing time from Results - The British Horseracing Authority and Latest Horse Racing News, Race Results, Race Cards, Race Tips & Fixtures.

I have not adjusted at all for weight carried, jockey allowance, going (that could be a problem on soft ground as horses are more spread out). It is purely an experiment.

All horses start with a rating of 100 and there ratings are computer calculated with ratings amended for all races as each new evidence comes to light.

There are many factors that can be changed in the ratings. The biggest variant is determining how much weighting to give the last race, so older results decay in value as newer evidence is entered. This as I say is purely experimental and I might try it on the Hong Kong data I have on another thread.

The important thing about these ratings are that the LOWEST figures are best. They should indicate the difference in ability for a race run in 100 seconds.

Any thoughts and advice welcome.

Kevin

 

[The Hare]

So to start I have 2 races in England today - Redcar and Cheltenham. Ratings below, Class rating is a guide to the quality of the race - 100 being average.

		RATE	RUNS
RED 1.40	All In Aladdin (IRE)	100.94​	1​
29/04/2021​	Balthassar (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
Class	Black Hill Storm (IRE)	99.79​	3​
101.42​	Call Annie (GB)	101.94​	1​
	Jam Tart (GB)	99.74​	1​
	Rectifiable (IRE)	101.54​	1​
	Twilight Minstrel (GB)	104.58​	1​
	Vieux Carre (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​
CHM 5.10	Barging Thru (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​
29/04/2021​	King of Speed (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Danger Close (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Established (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Lady Fanfare (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Tippy Toes (GB)	99.14​	1​

 

[The Hare]

For interrest these are my top rated. They are very dynamic changing though so could be totally different tomorrow. Also there is no way of comparing the Irish and GB figures so far, they just compare against themselves so the O'Brien/Stack runners are not necessarily better than the GB runners.

Horse	Rate	TRAINER
Glounthaune (IRE)	97.92	A P OBrien
Arboy Will (GB)	98.20	John Bridger
Castle Star (IRE)	98.24	J A Stack
Chipotle (GB)	98.26	Eve Johnson Houghton
Tenebrism (USA)	98.28	A P OBrien
The Gatekeeper (IRE)	98.30	Mark Johnston
Bellarena Lady (GB)	98.32	Ed Dunlop

 

[The Hare]

Racing for tomorrow

GOO1.35	Already Gone (IRE)	#N/A​
30/04/2021​	Koda Legend (IRE)	98.68​
	Ard Up (GB)	#N/A​
Class: 99.35​	Goldenhurst (GB)	100.41​
	Canonized (GB)	99.34​
	Spoonful of Sugar (GB)	#N/A​
	Rosa Mystica (IRE)	#N/A​
	Lady Dollars (GB)	98.98​
MUS2.00	Big Boy Harley (IRE)	#N/A​
30/04/2021​	Bond Chairman (GB)	#N/A​
	Diamond Pearl (GB)	#N/A​
	Joyous Days (IRE)	#N/A​
	Mytilda (IRE) H	#N/A​
	Costa Adeje (IRE)	99.70​
	Nabeela (GB)	#N/A​

 

[The Hare]

The defeat of Koda Legend has brought the ratings for his previous race back in line. Obviously little running in 2nd races sees big changes in the ratings. The Newmarket race won by Desert Dreamer is creeping up the rankings but an improved effort from Canonized today it seems.

Two races tomorrow: I have adjusted the ratings to around 60 seconds as both 5f races just to give an idea of predicted time gaps. Lowest best still

THI 1.35	Hotline Bling (IRE)	59.80​	1​
01/05/2021​	Jungle Bee (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Cotai Creek (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
Class 100.07	Honorah (GB)	59.59​	2​
	On The River (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Red Warning (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Roano (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Van Zant (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Atomic Lady (FR)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Harwood Lady (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	The Brazen One (GB)	61.17​	1​
	Totes Emosh (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Wee Loch Lass (GB)	59.61​	1​
DON 5.35	Benzema (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​
44317​	Cassiel (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Dr Youmzain (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
Class 99.94	Shaladar (FR)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Tyson (IRE)	59.96​	1​
	Lucy Lulu (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​

 

[The Hare]

The current top ratings - radical changes in the English runners! I did slightly change the method for horses beaten the equivalent of 100 pounds in rating terms I gave them a time based on what a 100 pounds beaten horse would achieve. Just too stop big affects on the ratings - a horse Out IN Yorkshire was much higher before I did this. Just from past experience using this on Greyhounds - something I may return too if successful.

Horse	Rate	TRAINER
Glounthaune (IRE)	98.06	A P OBrien
Bellarena Lady (GB)	98.20	Ed Dunlop
Tenebrism (USA)	98.30	A P OBrien
Arboy Will (GB)	98.30	John Bridger
Boonie (IRE)	98.32	Kevin Ryan
Chipotle (GB)	98.35	Eve Johnson Houghton
Desert Dreamer (GB)	98.35	Stuart Williams
Castle Star (IRE)	98.37	J A Stack
Cheerupsleepyjean (FR)	98.37	J A Stack

 

[The Hare]

Figures changing quickly and Out IN Yorkshire and Arboy Will are back to the top - Out Of Yorkshire runs in best race yet tomorrow at Salisbury.

SAL 1.00	Out In Yorkshire (GB)	58.80​	1​
02/05/2021​	Vaunted (GB)	59.55​	1​
	Cashew (IRE)	60.35​	1​
Class 99.31	Mirique (GB)	59.64​	1​
	Banner Moonshine (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	Hattie C (GB)	#N/A​	#N/A​
NEW 4.15	Berkshire Phoenix (IRE)	59.80​	1​
02/05/2021​	Dig Two (IRE)	59.34​	1​
	My Dubawi (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
Class 99.32	Secret Strength (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​
	War of Courage (IRE)	59.65​	1​

Top Rated

Horse	Rate	TRAINER
Out In Yorkshire (GB)	98.00	Mark Johnston
Arboy Will (GB)	98.05	John Bridger
Glounthaune (IRE)	98.05	A P OBrien
Bellarena Lady (GB)	98.15	Ed Dunlop
Zoltan Star (GB)	98.27	Richard Hannon
Boonie (IRE)	98.28	Kevin Ryan
Desert Dreamer (GB)	98.29	Stuart Williams
Tenebrism (USA)	98.30	A P OBrien

 

[The Hare]

Lots of races tomorrow. See attached including Listed Race in Ireland, best so far.

Out in Yorkshire loses top spot as the Arboy Will race continues to impress. Top now - no link between Irish and British form yet.

Horse Rate TRAINER
Glounthaune (IRE) 98.05 A P OBrien
Arboy Will (GB) 98.09 John Bridger
Bellarena Lady (GB) 98.14 Ed Dunlop
Desert Dreamer (GB) 98.27 Stuart Williams
Tenebrism (USA) 98.30 A P OBrien
Silver Bullet Lady (IRE) 98.30 Roger Charlton
Zoltan Star (GB) 98.31 Richard Hannon
Out In Yorkshire (GB) 98.35 Mark Johnston
Castle Star (IRE) 98.36 J A Stack
Cheerupsleepyjean (FR) 98.36 J A Stack
Night Arc (GB) 98.38 Richard Hannon

 

[The Hare]

A few changes at the top after the Irish race and Lily Agnes best race in UK so far perhaps.

Next 2 days races and current to prated attached.

 

[The Hare]

Just one race today. I guess the first at Chester yesterday has shown an amendment is needed. The going of Good to Soft!! The horses are spread out very well like soft in a very slow time. There needs to be amendments for times beaten in slower ground or the winners will end uo with inflated figures.

		NON WT	RUNS	TRAINER	FORM
CHS 4.15	Forever Bright (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​	David Loughnane	#N/A​
06/05/2021​	Graftonat (GB)	100.13​	4.00​	David Evans	79.65​
C2	Mercurial (IRE)	99.32​	1.00​	Tom Dascombe	114.41​
Class 99.08	Sir Min (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​	Ian Williams	#N/A​
	Zoltan Star (GB)	98.39​	1.00​	Richard Hannon	141.69​
	Fifteen Summers (IRE)	#N/A​	#N/A​	Adrian Keatley	#N/A​
	Russellinthebushes (IRE)	98.50​	1.00​	Tom Dascombe	125.84​

 

[The Hare]

Ratings for 4 races tomorrow, The Speed figures lowest are best, Form highest nest - ratings as in pounds and adjusted for weight carried, so minus Jockey's Allowance.

Also Top Rated on Form are included - no adjustments made for the going as yet - I believe the winners of Softer ground races are inflated but need to look at a way of amending them.

 

[The Hare]

Races for tomorrow. Decent race at Ascot as the standard of horses improves and lots of newcomers and massive improvers winning. The rate column are the Speed ratings and lowest is best, the form ratings are adjusted for weight and in pounds.


The current top rated on time/speed – no account of weight, just actual time. The ratings are based on seconds with 100 average. There is no correlation between Irish and UK ratings as yet until they run against each other.

 

[The Hare]

2yo's return tomorrow with 3 modest races, though a couple of interesting runners at Lingfield. Maybe some good newcomers at Windsor.

 

[The Hare]

Top of the Form ratings

 

[The Hare]

A couple of bigger fields tomorrow though mostly modest runners.

 

[The Hare]

Top 10 rated Form and Time

 

[The Hare]

Results so far - 26 races including previous runner, 1 with a joint top rated (stake split) to a £1 stake. A loss typical to average so nothing special as yet.

 

[The Hare]

3 races tomorrow.

 

[The Hare]

Well some decent efforts today with 4 of the newcomers entering my Top 10, 3 from York and the impressive Instinctive Move at Bath. The Irish ratings are still uncorrelated with the English so a lot will change when that happens. Today the O'Brien 1-2 was against poor opposition so they don't get high ratings as yet. Good races again tomorrow.


And the top rated on Form ratings:

 

[The Hare]

First Listed race of the UK season, competitive little Fillies race at York. Should help sort the ratings out, that result. Very close. It seems my ELO ratings are exaggerating the form advantage, perhaps 2 for 1. They are meant to be in pounds, but perhaps will settle down at a later date. Lots of newcomes likely to win the other races though Gisburn at Newbury has a decent rating, but Hannon horses are not repeating their runs 2md time out.