The Hare
Gelding
Hello
There seems a lot of interest in 2yo racing so I decided to experiment with a rating method similar to the ELO ratings used in sport. I have never tried this before with horses so it is very experimental. Att the moment these ratings only take into account the finishing time from Results - The British Horseracing Authority and Latest Horse Racing News, Race Results, Race Cards, Race Tips & Fixtures.
I have not adjusted at all for weight carried, jockey allowance, going (that could be a problem on soft ground as horses are more spread out). It is purely an experiment.
All horses start with a rating of 100 and there ratings are computer calculated with ratings amended for all races as each new evidence comes to light.
There are many factors that can be changed in the ratings. The biggest variant is determining how much weighting to give the last race, so older results decay in value as newer evidence is entered. This as I say is purely experimental and I might try it on the Hong Kong data I have on another thread.
The important thing about these ratings are that the LOWEST figures are best. They should indicate the difference in ability for a race run in 100 seconds.
Any thoughts and advice welcome.
Kevin
There seems a lot of interest in 2yo racing so I decided to experiment with a rating method similar to the ELO ratings used in sport. I have never tried this before with horses so it is very experimental. Att the moment these ratings only take into account the finishing time from Results - The British Horseracing Authority and Latest Horse Racing News, Race Results, Race Cards, Race Tips & Fixtures.
I have not adjusted at all for weight carried, jockey allowance, going (that could be a problem on soft ground as horses are more spread out). It is purely an experiment.
All horses start with a rating of 100 and there ratings are computer calculated with ratings amended for all races as each new evidence comes to light.
There are many factors that can be changed in the ratings. The biggest variant is determining how much weighting to give the last race, so older results decay in value as newer evidence is entered. This as I say is purely experimental and I might try it on the Hong Kong data I have on another thread.
The important thing about these ratings are that the LOWEST figures are best. They should indicate the difference in ability for a race run in 100 seconds.
Any thoughts and advice welcome.
Kevin