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2022 Flat guesses

16:15 Pon - Spy 11/4

I liked the way Spy quickened to win at Hamilton last time. He's by Muharrar out of the 1000 Guineas 2nd Confidential Lady, so great breeding. July is Johnston's best month for 3yo's running in 3yo+ Hcps and one's just won at Ripon. I like Jason Hart who keeps the ride after winning at Ham.

Edit: Meant to say July is Johnston's best month for 3yo's running in 1 mile 3yo+ Hcps.
 
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I'm behind the eight ball here and still looking at an afternoon race, so I'd better post one I've done so far;

14:50 Asc - First Officer 3/1 ina 4 runner race with nearly co-fav's of 3

I thought he won well last time at Salisbury in a race that often throws up a good one. Before that he didn't get a clear run at Sandown and would have finished closer. The Haggas horse re-appears quickly on very different ground but there's no doubt he was impressive last week.
 
Also done My Little Queens 7.2 in the 14:05 Yor

Gets loads of weight and I think she's under-rated.
 
PHS said:
I'm behind the eight ball here and still looking at an afternoon race, so I'd better post one I've done so far;

14:50 Asc - First Officer 3/1 ina 4 runner race with nearly co-fav's of 3

I thought he won well last time at Salisbury in a race that often throws up a good one. Before that he didn't get a clear run at Sandown and would have finished closer. The Haggas horse re-appears quickly on very different ground but there's no doubt he was impressive last week.
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Not in the same league as the winner; swap the weights round and you'd get the same result.
 
17:30 Che

I think the race Visibility won at Ponte was quite a hot race and certainly better than this one and showed the horse is well suited by this trip. The big question mark is the apprentice; he's never ridden here and it's a tricky track but he has won twice on the horse on the AW, so a chance is taken at 17/2.
 
PHS said:
17:30 Che

I think the race Visibility won at Ponte was quite a hot race and certainly better than this one and showed the horse is well suited by this trip. The big question mark is the apprentice; he's never ridden here and it's a tricky track but he has won twice on the horse on the AW, so a chance is taken at 17/2.
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Took keen hold, prominent early, soon lost position and held up in rear, ridden and raced wide when switched right over 2f out, kept on well final 110yds, not reach leaders

They went no pace and the winner was the beneficiary.
 
PHS said:
15:40 Chp - Way Of Life goes for a 6 timer but Stoute's Tiger Beetle came up against some tough cookies last season;
3L to Nagano who went on to be btn hd in a Grp 32nd behind Free Wind, a 7L Grp 2 winner2nd btn sh hd by Southern Voyage who went on to win two handicaps.
Edit: Also, been gelded since last season. Negative is that Stoute is yet to have a Hcp winner this season.
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This runs tonight. I've been looking at it. It was tempting but left it alone.

This was a new trip for the winner that day back in May and he's not looked back since, probably by tomorrow 11lb higher. Still, the distance back to TB in 3rd tempers enthusiasm and 5/2 doesn't enthuse me.
 
PHS said:
This runs tonight. I've been looking at it. It was tempting but left it alone.

This was a new trip for the winner that day back in May and he's not looked back since, probably by tomorrow 11lb higher. Still, the distance back to TB in 3rd tempers enthusiasm and 5/2 doesn't enthuse me.
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Also, just remembered, it was very well backed just before the off that day, so very disappointing it didn't either win or finish a lot closer than 2.5L.
 
PHS said:
15:55 Bri - Poetic Force might have won last time with a better jockey on board. Jason Watson takes over from Mollie Philips. He has a 33% strike rate for Carroll in handicaps in the last year. It's a strong race though and you could make a case for all 4 runners.
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Bit of an old Fav of mine and Jason Watson back on board after injury. He gave it a peach last time, so when I saw 3/1 in a 4 horse race it was hard to resist. Same time, same place as above.
 
I backed God Of Thunder (19:08 Nby) this morning at 8 on BF when it was drifting. It continued to drift all the way to 12.5. Now that the Hugh Taylor selected Fav is a non-runner (25.3% RF), GoT is back down to 3.75 and Fav (my 8 is now 5.97); how fickle are the layers on BF!

GoT has been 2nd in Hcps twice and has gone up 7lb without winning but he ran the Crisford winner very close last time, with Harry Burns taking 5lb off the latter, the pair 4L clear of At Liberty (runs 15:10 Yar). Given that he would certainly have won last time without the winner's 5lb claimer up, maybe the 3lb rise is workable.

Saver on Tessy Lad at 3.73 and 4.4. He showed much improved form up in trip last time and is 3lb well in for that run 10 days ago.
 
PHS said:
I backed God Of Thunder (19:08 Nby) this morning at 8 on BF when it was drifting. It continued to drift all the way to 12.5. Now that the Hugh Taylor selected Fav is a non-runner (25.3% RF), GoT is back down to 3.75 and Fav (my 8 is now 5.97); how fickle are the layers on BF!

GoT has been 2nd in Hcps twice and has gone up 7lb without winning but he ran the Crisford winner very close last time, with Harry Burns taking 5lb off the latter, the pair 4L clear of At Liberty (runs 15:10 Yar). Given that he would certainly have won last time without the winner's 5lb claimer up, maybe the 3lb rise is workable.

Saver on Tessy Lad at 3.73 and 4.4. He showed much improved form up in trip last time and is 3lb well in for that run 10 days ago.
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The saver Tessy Lad wins. Did it well from the front and trying to stay with him seemed to break GoT. I'm beginning to think I'm over-rating Hannon's horses. He's not as good as his father IMO.
 
20:00 Ffo - Precisely 0.5pt 11/4, 0.5pt 5/2 BOG

Thought this won with more in hand at Nby than the 3lb rise and Harry Davies takes 5lb off. The 2nd won very easily at Sandown last week and the Nby race looked a good standard. The odds say I should be scared of Hughie Morrison's 3yo but the Dam never raced beyond a mile and has only produced a sprinter from 4 foals. Trip, ground and pace look ok. There may be some nr's though.
 
I like Baez 20:40 Wdr but there's no pace in the race and this horse might need further or a stiffer track. Tempting though the 11/4 is, I'm going to leave it.
 
PHS said:
20:00 Ffo - Precisely 0.5pt 11/4, 0.5pt 5/2 BOG

Thought this won with more in hand at Nby than the 3lb rise and Harry Davies takes 5lb off. The 2nd won very easily at Sandown last week and the Nby race looked a good standard. The odds say I should be scared of Hughie Morrison's 3yo but the Dam never raced beyond a mile and has only produced a sprinter from 4 foals. Trip, ground and pace look ok. There may be some nr's though.
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Won at 85/40 :) .

Beat the SP but could have had much better prices early afternoon:doh:.
 
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