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2022 Flat guesses

P

PHS

Stallion
These will be selections where I've not had time to look at the race properly but something pops up from the database of race comments I keep after watching videos, so not to be taken too seriously. Reasoning will be minimal.


14:20 King Triton 9/2 (or 5/1 with a Boost)

His form behind Rifleman and Isla Kai last year looks good. Tuer has shown himself capable of getting winners FTO (in a short career so far). A few of the others had good seasons last year and now might be a little high in the weights.

Edit: Just to add, today's jockey had a 25% strike rate (and 48% place) for Teur last Flat season.
 
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15:16 Goo - 10f Hcp, 6 run

I wrote in my notes after Sweet Reward won at this track last year that he may still have more to offer after winning 3 times in 2021. He ran well for a long way FTO at Nby this year, despite coming from the widest stall in a 20 runner field. He needed his first run last year, so no surprise he faded after being up with the pace from that wide draw. Moktasaab looked very good when winning and will take some beating off a 7lb higher mark.

Small bet on Sweet Reward at 10/1 (I nearly went EW 2 places), half that stake on SF Moktasaab/Sweet Reward at 12.39/1 (if no nr's).
 
Re 15:16 Goo

Ed Walker, ever the optimist about his under achieving Caradoc, said in his Weekender column last week, "He's quirky and has had many injuries but he's moving beautifully now" (only saw this after my above post). So, maybe this is the reason it's been very well backed into joint favouritism this morning. I still think the horse is high enough in the weights for what it's achieved since it won at Newbury as a 4yo.
 
16:15 New - Desert Angel 5/1

Steps up in trip after his 3rd in the Royal Mile at Muss. He came from a long way back making up ground fast in the last 2f (lost left fore and right hind shoes). He has Godolphin's Stormy Ocean (11/8 Fav) to beat (though it's by no means at 2 horse race), also stepping up in trip and only has 0.5L to find from the Wol race where they were 3rd and 4th. Ryan Moore takes the ride.


From Hannon's blog
He was slow leaving the gates last time so did well to finish where he did when coming from behind. The handicapper put him up another 2lbs for finishing third which isn’t ideal but he’s a smart horse, is very consistent and has won at this track before. I think he could be even better for the step up in trip.
 
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16:16 Bat - Granary Queen 11/4

Only won narrowly last time but she was travelling strongly waiting for a gap to come. On that running she looks well ahead of her mark.


I also have Manor Park 15:06 and New Heights 17:10 in my notes but decided to swerve them.
 
I've done Legendary Day 19:40 Not - 13/2

Won two ordinary handicaps last year before a 3L 3rd (rated 83) behind the now 107 rated Path Of Thunder. He then ran abysmally in his last two races and connections must be very disappointed to find themselves still off 82. Hugh Morrison is well capable of getting one to win FTO and the 15/2 went quick.

Percy's Lad had the possible advantage of running against the stands rail at Yar last time. He's 2lb well in here but even that looks generous if that rail was no advantage. Swiss Ace carries a 5lb penalty and is due to go up a further 7lb but that was for an AW win at Ncl last time Edit:- over only 7f.
 
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Done drifter Shake A Leg at 10 on BF - 20:05 Thirsk.

Made all at Don last time. That was FTO. Has only gone up 2lb. That was only his 2nd run on turf since coming over from IRE where his turf form checks out well. Although I'm hoping he's a better horse on turf, he ran 2nd to a subsequent Cl3 winner at Ncl on his previous run. Miss Camacho's runners are often underestimated imo.

Edit: On ratings, this is an easier race than the one he won 75 Median OR v 80.

nr - not on BHA website yet.
 
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18:45 Ham (tomorrow) - 11f Appr Hcp

Ryan Sexton is running at a 22% strike rate in the last 90 days and teams up with Keith Dalgleish who is 31.6% in 4yo+ Hcps in weeks 17 and 18 with six winners.

Howzer Black ran some terrific races last season with 3 wins but perhaps his best effort was when 2nd here to Dalgleish's Platinumcard who was only beaten 0.5L by the probably Group class* Bay Bridge subsequently. The handicapper has been quick to forgive, with his mark dropping from 93 to 81 after only 3 runs. You have to believe that the horse wasn't ready for his first two runs to back him tomorrow. Sexton takes 5lb off. 14/1 taken.

* Edit: Now rated 112 so he'd better be Group class.

Edit: 20/1 from 14/1 this morning. I expect that's not a good sign with this yard. I've cashed out without loss (B365 are still 14/1) and re-backed half stake at 20/1.
 
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PHS said:
These will be selections where I've not had time to look at the race properly but something pops up from the database of race comments I keep after watching videos, so not to be taken too seriously. Reasoning will be minimal.


14:20 King Triton 9/2 (or 5/1 with a Boost)

His form behind Rifleman and Isla Kai last year looks good. Tuer has shown himself capable of getting winners FTO (in a short career so far). A few of the others had good seasons last year and now might be a little high in the weights.

Edit: Just to add, today's jockey had a 25% strike rate (and 48% place) for Teur last Flat season.
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No offence @Sean but I'm relieved this didn't win today.
 
Howzer Black 2nd of 14 but well beaten by the well backed Fav 10/1>4/1 who is probably the better stayer at this 11f trip, though he looked like he would have won even 1f out today.
 
Late bet on El Picador 14.5 BF (16:45 Yor) hoping there's more to come after the win LTO. Dalgleish decent record at this meeting the last few years. Place bet waiting to match but not chasing the price down.
 
PHS said:
Late bet on El Picador 14.5 BF (16:45 Yor) hoping there's more to come after the win LTO. Dalgleish decent record at this meeting the last few years. Place bet waiting to match but not chasing the price down.
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Locked up against the rail travelling strongly, ran on for 3rd with more to give. My place bet at 4.0 in the 3TBP market matched at 16:44. Interesting that the BFSP was quite generous at 4.12 when it was never near 4 at the off (which might sound weird as I matched at 4.0:D).
 
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RP result comment;

Towards rear, switched to near side 3f out, going easily but waiting for room over 2f out, pushed along and not clear run then switched left 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, went third final strides (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run from approaching the final furlong for some distance)
 
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PHS said:
I wish I had as many fans as you. Any hints (nobody visits me)?
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Hi P PHS
I know you wrote this with a bit of tongue in cheek, but I’ll be following to see how you’re doing.
Must admit I rarely look at much outside of the systems and system testing threads.
Probably missing out on a fair bit but that’s just me.
 
I've done Makeen 100/30 15:05 Carl.

Won well at Mus in mid-April. From that race; 3rd beaten a HD NTO, 4th won NTO (beat the 3rd), 6th & 7th both won NTO.

Makeen won FTO Edit: last year, after switching from Hannon. That was on Good to Firm ground, which is the current going (though there is some rain forecast at mid-day).

Here's my take on some of the others;

Cassy O - Hold up horse and there's not much pace here. Yet to win at a mile.

Jump The Gun - inconsistent, Jardine's usually take a few runs to be ready and he's only had one.

Hello Zabeel - very impressive pedigree but none of the family have won beyond 7f (few tried though).

Tangled - won here twice last year, possibilities but may have preferred easier ground.

Detective - won easily LTO but this drop in trip with no pace is not in his favour.
 
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