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2022 Flat guesses

Andy Holding is back with three tips for Monday's racing, including a NAP at Cartmel.

16:25 Epsom DownsSee All Odds
TARTAN CHIEF (best price 4/1) hasn’t quite hit the same heights to match his two victories this time last season but, there have been more encouraging signs of late, and following a decent effort in a better race than the one he faces today, Paul & Oliver Cole’s colt can go close to resume winning ways.
Similar to last season, the son of Dark Angel didn’t click into gear until the month of August appeared and following a solid effort at Windsor two starts ago, he produced another decent display in defeat at Newbury last time out. Ridden from the front in a totally different manner to any of his previous appearances, the three-year-old grey was still rocking and rolling at the two-furlong pole at the Berkshire track but, in bidding to maintain a strong gallop that he’d set from the outset, he finally succumbed to his own fractions to a pair handled with a degree more patience. That said, his performance in finishing a respectable third still came out well on the speed figures (easily the best of the card) and with today’s opposition on paper a little less taxing in terms of pure quality, he looks to have every chance of being hugely competitive.
 
PHS said:
16:25 Eps - 10f Cl4 3yo+ Hcp
Tartan Chief has improved with every run this year (RPR 75, 79, 84, 86). He ran Gaius to 3/4L at Wdr 2LTO after that horse had run subsequent winner Precisely close at Ffos Las. He was travelling strongly at Nby last time when attempting to make all, losing out to a Gosden winner that had stayed off that pace. That might turn out to be decent form. Tabti (Levey rode last time) takes 7lb off a 3yo in a 3yo+ race (something I think shouldn't be allowed when they're already getting WFA).
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No good. Not sure but he looked unsuited by the track, going nowhere 2f out then stayed on for 2nd. Andy Holding went EW.
 
Couple of speculative ones at early prices for tomorrow

14:10 Hay
Polyphonic won very easily last time (first time after being gelded) and is understandably 6/4 Fav here but Dark Mystery also won well last time in a better race. B365 were 5/1 and 7/2 2 place cover bet earlier. I snapped up the latter earlier as it seemed like value.

13:50 Sal
Youarenotforgiven showed a great attitude 2LTO and the front two finished well clear. Upped to 10f last time and failed. Back to a mile tomorrow. 12/1 looked too big. Took 10/1 3 place cover. NON-RUNNER
 
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From when I backed it at Leicester;

PHS said:
16:30 Lei

I backed Dundory last night at 9/2 but 2 nr's that I didn't fancy have taken a chunk of that and left me with less than the current 7/2.

On the other hand, the change in going looks like it might suit mine more than the Fav, so I'll stick with it.

John O'Shea has a 21.6% strike rate in 3yo+ and 4yo+ Hcps this year. Ok, a lot of it is down to 4 wins for Macs Dilemma but he has had 3 other individual winners (inc Dundory).

Dundory is an Irish import and very unexposed on turf still, especially at todays trip. I thought he did well to overhaul the leader last time at Chep, a course that favours front runners. A 3lb ride looks manageable.
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I thought I'd better put this up tonight as it's already trading lower on BF.

15:55 Yar - Land Of Eagles 0.5pt @10/1

Ran well behind Paradias at this track in June. Paradias is now 10lb higher after a good 2nd behind Caius Chorister in a 15K Goo Hcp. LOE was only beaten 1L and gets to run off the same mark (74) tomorrow due to a poor run LTO and a long absence. LOE went on to win a decent Novice race NTO with the 2nd, City Streak winning since on the AW then only beaten 1L by the prolific mare Precisely LTO.

Of the others;

Magical Mile - chance but this is a big step up in class.

Glen Esk - hold up horse that looks unlikely to be suited by this track.

Kaaranah - Irish import, this one's been heavily backed tonight, the Epsom run was unconvincing.

Storm Castle - Gosden runner whose form doesn't amount to much.

Admiralty House - ev chance on his last run but King is in rank bad form.

Capstan - Stoute runner whose early form reads well. Could be anything.
 
17:05 Nby (today) - Secret Box 9/2 3 place cover bet 7/1 ew 3 places

This ran quite well (though well beaten) after a long absence in the race fav Vee Sight was 3rd. SMP has a great record 2TO after a long absence. The selection ran well last year at Sandown as a 3yo and the filly he beat has gone from 78>96.

Rubbish! Close up but never really travelling.
 
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This one's a case of bet first, look later, cos by the time I've finished the 13/2 may have gone.

17:10 Captain Corelli drawn 2 of 16 - 13/2 (7/2 or 4/1 elsewhere)
Has only run one poor race in his last 8 and is 1-5-5 on Flat Turf

Edit: Looked at this and not so sure CC is going to be a strong stayer up the long uphill straight. I might trade out.

CASHED OUT
 
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13:42 Bev - 10f Appr Hcp
Berry Edge 9/2

BE has been tried at various longer trips than this but his figures in 10f Hcps read 1/11 (this track), 2/10 and 3/6 (btn hd for 2nd).

He caught the eye when 2nd at Redar in July after a mid-season break and a 79 day absence. He was trapped on the rail from about 2f to 1f out but ran on once in the clear, only beaten a nk by the mildly progressive Easterby gelding Forgivable who went on to run 2nd over that C&D in a better race last week. Tomorrow's race looks much easier on paper than his last two but he has to carry top weight of 10-3 and most of the other appr's get to claim but Stammers doesn't.

Dods has a very good record in these Appr races. The negative is that Stammers does not.
 
pete said:
Good luck, has this one on my radar, but could not get past the top weight and hate to bet in amateur races. Must have a massive chance here though.
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Noticed top weights have been doing well this season.

Just looked it up; 3yo+ Hcps 8-10.5f and carrying 10-0 to 10-3 = 15.3% and 21.7% in August
 
PHS said:
This one's a case of bet first, look later, cos by the time I've finished the 13/2 may have gone.
17:10 Captain Corelli drawn 2 of 16 - 13/2 (7/2 or 4/1 elsewhere)
Has only run one poor race in his last 8 and is 1-5-5 on Flat Turf

Edit: Looked at this and not so sure CC is going to be a strong stayer up the long uphill straight. I might trade out.
CASHED OUT
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:headbang:
 
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