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2022 Flat guesses

Friday
15:20 San - Cl3 4yo+ 10f Hcp
Jewel In My Crown 9/4

Jewel In My Crown's 5th of 12 at York last year reads quite well but she seemed to show improved form 2TO as a 4yo when pushing Lucander all the way at Wdr LTO 11 days ago, and gets to run off the same mark. She's out of Guest's smart Listed winner Rosa Grace. Callum Shepherd has a 23% strike rate for Guest on the Flat in the last 2 years (20% in Hcps).

Boughey's unexposed French import Motazzen could be a bigger danger than some of the shorter priced runners. 1/4pt @6/1.
 
Friday
15:30 Yor - 8f Listed Race
Brunch 100/30 Cover Bet 2 places

Mohaafeth is the class horse in the race but drops back markedly in trip. Is it just to blow the cobwebs away or is he really a miler?

Brunch goes well at York 1122 over 7-8f (min 13 runners) . The 110 rated Valiant Prince only ran to 104 (BHB site) last time despite getting an easy lead, so Brunch (up 2lb to 106 after just failing to beat Cruyff Turn last time) doesn't have a lot to find with all bar the Fav.

Most of the other books are 100/30 or 7/2 outright, so maybe this is value (only if you can eat it).

Edit;
Pretty meaningless with only 9 renewals of this race, but nice to see that 5yo's have a 21% strike rate and that no 3yo's run (43%).

Didn't know this was a Timeform and ATR selection:eek:.
 
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PHS said:
19:25 Hay - 1 mile £8.1k 4yo+ Hcp

Stately Home, 5/1 boosted from 4/1 is up against Lightening Company who has form in better races than the selection. LC won his first Flat Turf handicap at Redcar in April, a Class 3 race that has worked out very well indeed with 2nd Hortzadar, 3rd Il Bandito and 4th Boardman all going on to win at NTO. However the first 3 were all drawn low, a distinct advantage in large fields at Redcar when the going is Soft, so maybe LC had plenty in his favour that day.

Ex-Irish Stately Home won his first UK Turf handicap at Ponte in April on Soft ground. What stood out about that win was that he met interference on at least two occasions in the last 2f but had the racecraft to still go on and win, looking like a well handicapped horse. The concern is, that race wasn't up to much, but that's why he's on offer at 5/1 in a five runner race.

This likely steadily run race on a flat track looks in his favour.
Click to expand...
Wins with a clear run.

Stake back at 1.51 and another lay at 1.21 gives me Even money, so not too disheartened. Went 1.06.
 
Race 6 - 7:25pm
THE LYME WOOD HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 3)

Inside the final furlong, the winner, FAME AND ACCLAIM (IRE) edged momentarily left intimidating STATELY HOME (IRE), placed second, but after viewing a recording of the incident it was found that no riding offence was involved, and it had not improved the placing of FAME AND ACCLAIM (IRE).
 
PHS said:
Friday
15:30 Yor - 8f Listed Race
Brunch 100/30 Cover Bet 2 places

Mohaafeth is the class horse in the race but drops back markedly in trip. Is it just to blow the cobwebs away or is he really a miler?

Brunch goes well at York 1122 over 7-8f (min 13 runners) . The 110 rated Valiant Prince only ran to 104 (BHB site) last time despite getting an easy lead, so Brunch (up 2lb to 106 after just failing to beat Cruyff Turn last time) doesn't have a lot to find with all bar the Fav.

Most of the other books are 100/30 or 7/2 outright, so maybe this is value (only if you can eat it).

Edit;
Pretty meaningless with only 9 renewals of this race, but nice to see that 5yo's have a 21% strike rate and that no 3yo's run (43%).

Didn't know this was a Timeform and ATR selection:eek:.
Click to expand...
7/4 from 100/30 :eek:
 
PHS said:
Friday
15:20 San - Cl3 4yo+ 10f Hcp
Jewel In My Crown 9/4

Jewel In My Crown's 5th of 12 at York last year reads quite well but she seemed to show improved form 2TO as a 4yo when pushing Lucander all the way at Wdr LTO 11 days ago, and gets to run off the same mark. She's out of Guest's smart Listed winner Rosa Grace. Callum Shepherd has a 23% strike rate for Guest on the Flat in the last 2 years (20% in Hcps).

Boughey's unexposed French import Motazzen could be a bigger danger than some of the shorter priced runners. 1/4pt @6/1.
Click to expand...
Motazzen now 11/4 2Fav from 6/1 (was 5/1 gen). JIMC not moved.
 
PHS said:
Friday
15:20 San - Cl3 4yo+ 10f Hcp
Jewel In My Crown 9/4

Jewel In My Crown's 5th of 12 at York last year reads quite well but she seemed to show improved form 2TO as a 4yo when pushing Lucander all the way at Wdr LTO 11 days ago, and gets to run off the same mark. She's out of Guest's smart Listed winner Rosa Grace. Callum Shepherd has a 23% strike rate for Guest on the Flat in the last 2 years (20% in Hcps).

Boughey's unexposed French import Motazzen could be a bigger danger than some of the shorter priced runners. 1/4pt @6/1.
Click to expand...
Not the greatest of rides from Callum Shepherd; switch outside in a 5 runner race instead of hoping for a gap between horses. Might not have won anyway but my IR lay would have matched as she would have gone close. Stays very well that mare.
 
PHS said:
Friday
15:30 Yor - 8f Listed Race
Brunch 100/30 Cover Bet 2 places

Mohaafeth is the class horse in the race but drops back markedly in trip. Is it just to blow the cobwebs away or is he really a miler?

Brunch goes well at York 1122 over 7-8f (min 13 runners) . The 110 rated Valiant Prince only ran to 104 (BHB site) last time despite getting an easy lead, so Brunch (up 2lb to 106 after just failing to beat Cruyff Turn last time) doesn't have a lot to find with all bar the Fav.

Most of the other books are 100/30 or 7/2 outright, so maybe this is value (only if you can eat it).

Edit;
Pretty meaningless with only 9 renewals of this race, but nice to see that 5yo's have a 21% strike rate and that no 3yo's run (43%).

Didn't know this was a Timeform and ATR selection:eek:.
Click to expand...
That run was inexplicably terrible. I could have had a match bet with Mohaafeth and won!
 
18:45 Bev - Eligible 17/2

Two 3yo at the top of the market but I believe 3yo's chances at this trip are often over-estimated, esp in June. Although I thought Eligible got an expert ride* last time, I thought he won with a bit in hand despite a narrow margin that means he's only gone up 3lb. A 17% strike rate for Joanna Mason in Bev 3yo+ and 4yo+ Handicaps reads well but for Mick Easterby it's 20%.

*By that I mean correct tactics for Ponte.

B365 are 5/1
 
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PHS said:
18:45 Bev - Eligible 17/2

Two 3yo at the top of the market but I believe 3yo's chances at this trip are often over-estimated, esp in June. Although I thought Eligible got an expert ride* last time, I thought he won with a bit in hand despite a narrow margin that means he's only gone up 3lb. A 17% strike rate for Joanna Mason in Bev 3yo+ and 4yo+ Handicaps reads well but for Mick Easterby it's 20%.

*By that I mean correct tactics for Ponte.

B365 are 5/1
Click to expand...
Good luck PHS I looked at this race because I've been monitoring the Tutty yard that's in flying form 3 from 9 during the last 14 days. Drops to class 5 for first time since June 2020 when it won here , I might try a reverse forecast
 
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Coseleymon said:
Good luck PHS I looked at this race because I've been monitoring the Tutty yard that's in flying form 3 from 9 during the last 14 days. Drops to class 5 for first time since June 2020 when it won here , I might try a reverse forecast
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Yes, I backed Tangled a few times last year. Certainly has the mark to win tomorrow. Kinda think the price heavily reflects the trainer's purple patch. I find it difficult to back those boom or bust horses though.
 
PHS said:
Yes, I backed Tangled a few times last year. Certainly has the mark to win tomorrow. Kinda think the price heavily reflects the trainer's purple patch. I find it difficult to back those boom or bust horses though.
Click to expand...
I'll probably do it ew at 6/1 seems a bet to nothing, another trainer I'm watching is Alexandra Dunn who is 4 from 12 at the moment. I'm going to Stratford tomorrow and she has one in the 2 45 which I will back if it goes above 9/4 but I doubt it will .
 
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PHS said:
20:00 Pon - Myboymax keeps going up without winning. His 2nd to Colinton looks good with that one going on to win again. He then came up against an unexposed filly of Fahey's but was only beaten a nk with the 3rd a further 3.25L away. With the 7lb apprentice claim, he's 4lb lower than when Garrity was on board when 2nd to Colinton. This looks slightly less competitive than Poetic Force's 4 runner race.
Click to expand...
:)
 
18:00 Goo - Madame Ambassador 12/1 BOG and 7/2 2 places, 5 run.

Madame Ambassador was beaten by Savvy Knight at Ham last time and the latter ran a close up 4th in the King George V Hcp today, suggesting he's a 100 horse and she was only beaten 1.5L getting 7lb, which makes her about 88. She runs off 78 tomorrow. I like the way she came back at the winner once he easily passed her, and the extra furlong can only be in her favour. I just hope Frannie doesn't try to make the running, as that won't work at Goo.

The Fav won a 4 runner Novice event by 13L last time but he was 1/3 Fav, so it's unclear what that was worth. Further stiff oppo comes from Haggas's Nathanael Greene, who I backed last time.

There's been a bit of money for this in the last hour and generally 9/1.
 
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14:55 Red - Lady Caroline 13/2 and 9/4 2 pl, 7 run

Lady Caroline was too keen FTO this season and Hugo Palmer tries a Hood tomorrow. He's 3-9 with a first-time Hood (3yo+ and 4yo+ Hcps) and 4-15 in all Hcps (even better if you start from 2017).

Her standout piece of form was when 2nd to Kawida in a Maiden last year, only beaten 1.5L. The latter won a Listed Race NTO.
Lady Caroline won a Fillies Novice race NTO and the 2nd and 3rd both won NTO.
 
PHS said:
14:55 Red - Lady Caroline 13/2 and 9/4 2 pl, 7 run

Lady Caroline was too keen FTO this season and Hugo Palmer tries a Hood tomorrow. He's 3-9 with a first-time Hood (3yo+ and 4yo+ Hcps) and 4-15 in all Hcps (even better if you start from 2017).

Her standout piece of form was when 2nd to Kawida in a Maiden last year, only beaten 1.5L. The latter won a Listed Race NTO.
Lady Caroline won a Fillies Novice race NTO and the 2nd and 3rd both won NTO.
Click to expand...
I'm on Trais Fluors in this hopefully one of us will have the winner
 
PHS said:
14:55 Red - Lady Caroline 13/2 and 9/4 2 pl, 7 run

Lady Caroline was too keen FTO this season and Hugo Palmer tries a Hood tomorrow. He's 3-9 with a first-time Hood (3yo+ and 4yo+ Hcps) and 4-15 in all Hcps (even better if you start from 2017).

Her standout piece of form was when 2nd to Kawida in a Maiden last year, only beaten 1.5L. The latter won a Listed Race NTO.
Lady Caroline won a Fillies Novice race NTO and the 2nd and 3rd both won NTO.
Click to expand...
Ran terrible. Outpaced, showed nothing.
 
PHS said:
18:00 Goo - Madame Ambassador 12/1 BOG and 7/2 2 places, 5 run.

Madame Ambassador was beaten by Savvy Knight at Ham last time and the latter ran a close up 4th in the King George V Hcp today, suggesting he's a 100 horse and she was only beaten 1.5L getting 7lb, which makes her about 88. She runs off 78 tomorrow. I like the way she came back at the winner once he easily passed her, and the extra furlong can only be in her favour. I just hope Frannie doesn't try to make the running, as that won't work at Goo.
Click to expand...
7/1 from 12/1 but not quite good enough, beaten 1.75L in 3rd.
 
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