2022 Flat guesses
- Thread starter PHS
- Start date
15:15 Bev - Billy Roberts 14/1 EW
Back down to 67 after two runs over too far, the question mark here is whether he can make the grade at Cl4 as a 9yo. Take out the Easterby Fav and the inconsistent Fairmac and what's left doesn't look strong, so an EW bet is in order and pray there are no NR's.
Back down to 67 after two runs over too far, the question mark here is whether he can make the grade at Cl4 as a 9yo. Take out the Easterby Fav and the inconsistent Fairmac and what's left doesn't look strong, so an EW bet is in order and pray there are no NR's.
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Just looked at the 19:10 Nby. Thought Grand Scheme (backed last time) had a good chance of following up, as only 7 run so he doesn't have the disadvantage of coming from a wide draw as he did last time. However, Charlton has a promising 3yo running. Not only does he get a stone from the older horses but Harry Davies takes another 5lb off. That just seems unfair; something the BHA need to think about IMO! No Bet.
Frontrunner
Stallion
20:35 Che - Luminous Light 1pt 11/8 3 places - 25p R4 (only 5 run now) and 0.5pt 7/1 - 10p R4
Flopped LTO in the London Gold Cup but his 1L 3rd behind Nathanael Greene (2nd in a Cl3) and Ajero (2nd at Ascot) looking quite good now. Carries top weight, which might be less onerous round Chester?!?
Typed this 2hrs ago and just found I didn't post it.
Flopped LTO in the London Gold Cup but his 1L 3rd behind Nathanael Greene (2nd in a Cl3) and Ajero (2nd at Ascot) looking quite good now. Carries top weight, which might be less onerous round Chester?!?
Typed this 2hrs ago and just found I didn't post it.
18:45 Wdr - Cl3 10f 3yo+ Hcp
I backed Anythingtoday in a 2 place cover bet at 3/1 last night, then cashed out when I saw it wasn't being backed and was quite a bit bigger on BF than the books.
I took a proper look at the race this morning and it looks a lot more competitive than I initially thought.
Silver Gunn - Won very easily FTO over C&D. I backed it last time when it looked a different horse and was well beaten. Chance if it returns to form.
Anythingtoday - Ran over C&D LTO and finished a close 2nd giving the winner a stone. I thought Shoemark had him too far back when the leaders quickened. He ran by far the fastest last 3f. Ryan Moore takes over and has a good record at the track.
Jewel In My Crown - another I backed last time. She's up 3lb for two close 2nds. They opened up 2/1 last night; that looked too short to me and she's on a small drift ATM. Callum Shepherd made it all too complicated last time at Sandown. He should have switched wide 3f out. Instead he went inside and found trouble. He's 1-43 in both codes in the last 30 days.
Dingle - looks better on the AW.
Danville - won well over a mile at this track 2 runs back. Houghton not in the best of form in 3yo+ Hcps but couldn't rule this one out. The way he won here suggested 10f should be a positive but he bombed out at Bath last time.
Splendent - the only 3yo in the race, he has some eyecatching form; 3rd behind Coroebus and Saga on debut, but beaten 6L, 2nd to Magisterial over a mile but flattered by the 1.5L margin and won over this distance on the AW in Nov. Cole's record in 3yo+ middle distance hcps at this time of the year is only average and as this one is making it's seasonal debut, I'm willing to pass on it.
So, although it looks a very open race, I'm still willing to take a chance on Anythingtoday improving on his 2nd last time with Ryan on-board and have gone back in at 100/30 2 place cover (9/2 outright at the time of posting).
I backed Anythingtoday in a 2 place cover bet at 3/1 last night, then cashed out when I saw it wasn't being backed and was quite a bit bigger on BF than the books.
I took a proper look at the race this morning and it looks a lot more competitive than I initially thought.
Silver Gunn - Won very easily FTO over C&D. I backed it last time when it looked a different horse and was well beaten. Chance if it returns to form.
Anythingtoday - Ran over C&D LTO and finished a close 2nd giving the winner a stone. I thought Shoemark had him too far back when the leaders quickened. He ran by far the fastest last 3f. Ryan Moore takes over and has a good record at the track.
Jewel In My Crown - another I backed last time. She's up 3lb for two close 2nds. They opened up 2/1 last night; that looked too short to me and she's on a small drift ATM. Callum Shepherd made it all too complicated last time at Sandown. He should have switched wide 3f out. Instead he went inside and found trouble. He's 1-43 in both codes in the last 30 days.
Dingle - looks better on the AW.
Danville - won well over a mile at this track 2 runs back. Houghton not in the best of form in 3yo+ Hcps but couldn't rule this one out. The way he won here suggested 10f should be a positive but he bombed out at Bath last time.
Splendent - the only 3yo in the race, he has some eyecatching form; 3rd behind Coroebus and Saga on debut, but beaten 6L, 2nd to Magisterial over a mile but flattered by the 1.5L margin and won over this distance on the AW in Nov. Cole's record in 3yo+ middle distance hcps at this time of the year is only average and as this one is making it's seasonal debut, I'm willing to pass on it.
So, although it looks a very open race, I'm still willing to take a chance on Anythingtoday improving on his 2nd last time with Ryan on-board and have gone back in at 100/30 2 place cover (9/2 outright at the time of posting).
16:45 San
Picual is all the rage this morning (13/8) and helps to make the market more attractive.
Youthful King ran in a better race here two starts back and suffered multiple Not Clear Run from 2f out. I'm convinced he would have finished in the first 3 despite only finishing 7th. He won next time out at Wdr and was value for more than the 3lb rise. 10/1 EW.
Picual is all the rage this morning (13/8) and helps to make the market more attractive.
Youthful King ran in a better race here two starts back and suffered multiple Not Clear Run from 2f out. I'm convinced he would have finished in the first 3 despite only finishing 7th. He won next time out at Wdr and was value for more than the 3lb rise. 10/1 EW.
16:30 Lei
I backed Dundory last night at 9/2 but 2 nr's that I didn't fancy have taken a chunk of that and left me with less than the current 7/2.
On the other hand, the change in going looks like it might suit mine more than the Fav, so I'll stick with it.
John O'Shea has a 21.6% strike rate in 3yo+ and 4yo+ Hcps this year. Ok, a lot of it is down to 4 wins for Macs Dilemma but he has had 3 other individual winners (inc Dundory).
Dundory is an Irish import and very unexposed on turf still, especially at todays trip. I thought he did well to overhaul the leader last time at Chep, a course that favours front runners. A 3lb ride looks manageable.
Surprising to find that Jamie Spencer has an excellent record over middle distances at this track as it does tend to favour those racing more prominently. The 3yo he rides gets loads of weight and if he acts on the going could be a bigger danger than the Fav.
I backed Dundory last night at 9/2 but 2 nr's that I didn't fancy have taken a chunk of that and left me with less than the current 7/2.
On the other hand, the change in going looks like it might suit mine more than the Fav, so I'll stick with it.
John O'Shea has a 21.6% strike rate in 3yo+ and 4yo+ Hcps this year. Ok, a lot of it is down to 4 wins for Macs Dilemma but he has had 3 other individual winners (inc Dundory).
Dundory is an Irish import and very unexposed on turf still, especially at todays trip. I thought he did well to overhaul the leader last time at Chep, a course that favours front runners. A 3lb ride looks manageable.
Surprising to find that Jamie Spencer has an excellent record over middle distances at this track as it does tend to favour those racing more prominently. The 3yo he rides gets loads of weight and if he acts on the going could be a bigger danger than the Fav.
19:50 Car
I already put up Hostelry in the Apprentice claims thread (Inner Sanctum) but I've also had a little bet on Iron Sheriff at 10/1 ew 4 places. He was unlucky in a few better races last year so the 4lb rise for his Beverley win in June shouldn't be a problem and he won on Soft ground last year. Jonny Peate has a 23% strike rate (exc 2yo races) for Roger Fell this year for an ROI of 229.81 at SP.
I already put up Hostelry in the Apprentice claims thread (Inner Sanctum) but I've also had a little bet on Iron Sheriff at 10/1 ew 4 places. He was unlucky in a few better races last year so the 4lb rise for his Beverley win in June shouldn't be a problem and he won on Soft ground last year. Jonny Peate has a 23% strike rate (exc 2yo races) for Roger Fell this year for an ROI of 229.81 at SP.
