VDW VDW Tipping Thread

[Kraldrew]

Ok so am still in test mode though if i am left with 1 horse i will back them i have had only 1 race from the 8 or so i have assessed that has not produced the winner so all is well.

If one horse has everything lined up then it will also be backed regardless of how many probables there are

Onto tomorrow as i keep choosing the wrong one horse i have decided that when i have a couple of probables or 3 they can be dutched but as i say i am in test mode so all just a watching brief.

So also trying my first Handicap in jumps Sean Og looks the strongest as everything is lined up there are 2 horses coming from hurdles but no chase info so they could spoil the party.

In the 1618 Bev Alligator alley was close to a bet but will leave it and watch

 

[Kraldrew]

Many thanks Leodis and the race you put up is a listed may have a look tor try it on

 

[Kraldrew]

​	​	​	​	1523 San​
Beshtani​	​	67​	17​	​
Cash​	​	72​	17​	3rd​
Checkandchallenge​	​	169​	14​	2nd​
Skellet​	​	67​	17​	1st​

 

[Kraldrew]

They have passed both tests Take your pick lol

Checkandchallenge having top ability and best consistency but no bet for me

 

[Leodis]

15.23 Snd

Runner	Con	Ability	EB	Class	Erin
Beshtani 9-6	3.1	198	93	3	7
Checkandchallenge 9-6	1.7	199	96	4	5
Crown Board 9-6	1.7	172	65	5	18
Elnajmm 9-6	2.7	174	86	-9	13
Skellet 8-11	3.3	190	92	-9	4

Skellet did well to win that (just pipping me to landing a Dutch bet), considering it needed to improve at least 8lb in ability and stepping up 9lb in class. In hindsight, it did have good Consistency and the best Erin. It wouldn't have been enough for me to back it though.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

As i looked at the race it was tight any of the 4 i listed could have won it was competitive but a 123 for me

 

[Kraldrew]

Another 3 winners from the probables from the 4 races analysed taking it to 9 from 11 races.

The Bev race Elegant Erin passed the test part but failed on the Ability by 2k so not unhappy about that

Rechecking the Ability the horse was joint 4th

 

[Kraldrew]

​	​	​	​	15.42 Ayr​
Oviedo​	​	69​	26​	Elim​
Marhaba The Champ​	​	72​	30​	Elim​
Have A Secret​	​	64​	11​	​

 

[Kraldrew]

​	​	​	​	1625 Yarm​
The X O​	​	37​	22​	Elim​
Inishfallen​	​	43​	30​	Elim​
Tiger Crusade​	​	32​	21​	Elim​
Amazonian Dream​	​	29​	11​	​
First Folio​	​	31​	11​	Elim​

 

[Kraldrew]

1542 Ayr
Have A secret the other 2 are eliminated on consistency

1625 An Interesting Race where i have had to go to the 5th on Ability to find a qualifier as the other 4 are eliminated by consistency or the 2nd test so a watch only race

 

[Leodis]

Runner	Con	Ability	EB	Class	Erin
Oviedo 10-0	1.9	196	96	2	14
Have Secret 9-3	1.5	181	84	-7	6
Marhaba The Champ 9-6	0.0	176	76	2	17
Bennetot 9-5	2.8	174	88	0	12

K Kraldrew ,

Have Secret seems to have no capability issues.

LTO it came second, giving weight (8lb) to the J2nd F, whilst dropping in class [+9].

The only slight negative with the race is that it got beat by a KH rising in class [-4].

Furthermore, it is up 7lb in class today.

One to watch for me.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

Leodis As you can see from my chart Bennetot did not make the top 3 Ability and thats what im concentrating on at the moment. MTC and O are eliminated by the cons over 20 as the highest cons i have had is 20 so until that changes thats my mark leaving |Have A Secret .As i have said its a learnig curve and also as i said i will back if 1 horse left . It has to pass my class rating to make the top 3 however.

However i am aware there are some hotpots in the race . I would also prefer 4 yr old Handicaps but at this time of the year they are far and few so we will learn from it.

 

[Leodis]

K Kraldrew ,

Bennetot made it on the list for top-3 consistency out of the market contenders range and top-3 LTO, highest class.

They are based on my ratings, so we will have slightly different lists of probable's.

Looking again at that race, Oviedo could be the danger if it manages to overcome the poor Erin. Plenty of if's and but's though with a few of them

 

[Kraldrew]

Well thats what makes racing a puzzle lol i use earnings per runs rather than wins per earnings if thats why its different
Leodis Oh and do not have a clue about Erin yet have not attempted to tackle it BABY STEPS

 

[Kraldrew]

And i do not include Non Handicap winnings either

 

[Leodis]

I will be posting in the VDW-bets thread from now on, K Kraldrew , as this ones a bit hidden away.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

Ok fair enough oh its in the inner Sanctum ah right no wonder not getting any response haha