VDW my take on races today
- Thread starter Michael231
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JennyK
Gelding
Hi
Nellsman
I mainly use winning handicap form, principally the most recent win, when judging which horses have the proven, or likely, ability to win a given race, and I use the most recent win expressed a different way, as in the 4.10 York attachment, as a cross-check.
When assessing a horse I regard as plausible, I look at its history in handicaps, wins and losses, as per the chart for Sterling Knight yesterday. The red dots and line show all handicap runs, the green ones winning runs, with an additional hypothetical dot on the assumption that the horse wins the race being analysed. Personally, I find the chart enables me to see more easily than a table which races need to be checked out - in this case the win on 14/10/22 and the losing runs on 05/08/22 and 06/12/23 - to try to get a sense of the horse's progression/regression.
Obviously every horse who wins its first handicap has done so with no green dots/lines, so one can't just write off horses such as Brave Nation in the 2.05. With this type, performances which seem to have been good enough that, if repeated in the current race, they would have been good enough to win are of particular interest. In this case, the runs on 07/12/23 and 01/06/24.
NellsmanI mainly use winning handicap form, principally the most recent win, when judging which horses have the proven, or likely, ability to win a given race, and I use the most recent win expressed a different way, as in the 4.10 York attachment, as a cross-check.
When assessing a horse I regard as plausible, I look at its history in handicaps, wins and losses, as per the chart for Sterling Knight yesterday. The red dots and line show all handicap runs, the green ones winning runs, with an additional hypothetical dot on the assumption that the horse wins the race being analysed. Personally, I find the chart enables me to see more easily than a table which races need to be checked out - in this case the win on 14/10/22 and the losing runs on 05/08/22 and 06/12/23 - to try to get a sense of the horse's progression/regression.
Obviously every horse who wins its first handicap has done so with no green dots/lines, so one can't just write off horses such as Brave Nation in the 2.05. With this type, performances which seem to have been good enough that, if repeated in the current race, they would have been good enough to win are of particular interest. In this case, the runs on 07/12/23 and 01/06/24.
JennyK
Gelding
NellsmanHaving made a start on the 2.10 Chester, I can't resist posting the attached chart for Copper Knight because it illustrates why I find charts easier to get an initial sense of possibilities from than tables.
CK is of course an old horse by flat standards and the chart only includes his data from when he was a 7yo, but one can see at a glance why F Chester was spot on ("The Golden Years ....", item 45) and VDW right only in his idiosyncratic sense of "ability".
Over 45 runs we can see how CK peaked as a 7yo and has since been the subject of age-related regression. That of course does not mean he can't still win races - three so far since he peaked. But it does in my view help one judge what is now realistic and what isn't. And of course it highlights performances which need to be looked at carefully to reach a judgement as to whether the slope of the green line from 14/07/23 is a fair reflection or maybe suggests his current ability is rather lower. (The races on 21/07/23, 23/08/23, 09/05/24 and 25/05/24 being in my view, the keys to that judgement.)
For the avoidance of doubt, CK is the only runner I have looked at so far, so I am some way from reaching any conclusions on the race.
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I've often thought VDW was making a bad case for his ability rating in that response to F Chester, but I also read his reasoning as being only in regards to the race on the day that has already been run. He wrote that saying ability fades (which it clearly does in real terms) is tantamount to saying the horse is reduced from it's original finishing position, eventually to the point of not even having been in the race at all.
Having made a start on the 2.10 Chester, I can't resist posting the attached chart for Copper Knight because it illustrates why I find charts easier to get an initial sense of possibilities from than tables.
CK is of course an old horse by flat standards and the chart only includes his data from when he was a 7yo, but one can see at a glance why F Chester was spot on ("The Golden Years ....", item 45) and VDW right only in his idiosyncratic sense of "ability".
Over 45 runs we can see how CK peaked as a 7yo and has since been the subject of age-related regression. That of course does not mean he can't still win races - three so far since he peaked. But it does in my view help one judge what is now realistic and what isn't. And of course it highlights performances which need to be looked at carefully to reach a judgement as to whether the slope of the green line from 14/07/23 is a fair reflection or maybe suggests his current ability is rather lower. (The races on 21/07/23, 23/08/23, 09/05/24 and 25/05/24 being in my view, the keys to that judgement.)
For the avoidance of doubt, CK is the only runner I have looked at so far, so I am some way from reaching any conclusions on the race.
And so I took that as a further hint that with past races he was assessing the level of class and form of those involved at the business end of a race by the ability at the time of the race in question. That's the only way in which I can see his claim that ability doesn't fade can be seen as remotely plausible. The ability at the time of the race is his point, albeit badly made.
Hope you had a few quid on Copper Knight?
I'm presuming the AOR figures and the relation to the horse's handicap mark in recent runs was the big positives here?
Not many in the race seemed to have a lot going for them in the same respect other than Dickieburd. And I note also that the horse who just won with top weight in the 3yo sprint at York was actually running in an AOR of the same level than when carrying the same 9-9 to victory also. The question was if 5lb more up the handicap was enough to prevent him winning. Interesting.
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JennyK
Gelding
T
Tufnel
Only as part of a three horse book.
With Copper Knight, once I took out what seemed to me to be the outlying win last summer at Pontefract, I thought the hypothetical green line from 14/07/23 to today looked plausible. I've not as much experience as I'd like of the regression profiles of 10yos and thought there were two others with possibilities.
I can't even find a book in the 5.20. Another Investment will win again, surely, but when? He and Roundhay Park are on my to follow list, but the race today may be too tough for RP. My other to follow horse in the field is It Just Takes Time, who looks the most plausible of the three but not close to being a bet in this company.
Only as part of a three horse book.
With Copper Knight, once I took out what seemed to me to be the outlying win last summer at Pontefract, I thought the hypothetical green line from 14/07/23 to today looked plausible. I've not as much experience as I'd like of the regression profiles of 10yos and thought there were two others with possibilities.
I can't even find a book in the 5.20. Another Investment will win again, surely, but when? He and Roundhay Park are on my to follow list, but the race today may be too tough for RP. My other to follow horse in the field is It Just Takes Time, who looks the most plausible of the three but not close to being a bet in this company.
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Nellsman
Colt
Hi
JennyK,
very interesting posts and no, I did not bet Copper Knight, but what a horse! A credit to his trainer, 10 years old and still full of enthusiasm. I'm really busy at the moment but I will get back to you in due course. I have attached my race sheet for 2:10 Chester. Copper Knight needed to produce a 160 to win. Well within his competence.
JennyK,very interesting posts and no, I did not bet Copper Knight, but what a horse! A credit to his trainer, 10 years old and still full of enthusiasm. I'm really busy at the moment but I will get back to you in due course. I have attached my race sheet for 2:10 Chester. Copper Knight needed to produce a 160 to win. Well within his competence.
I'm sure it's not just knowing the result, but your charts point to one horse really. And I only noticed the previous runs in the race after the race. My selection Orbaan is so well handicapped these days, but he has been for a while and keeps promising to produce the goods but time and again he doesn't. I thought he was in his easiest opportunity today using AOR as an initial point of ref, but it seems he needs to drop to a class 5 maybe to get his head in front.
My own ratings had him on top too. And I believe was top on the VDW AR.
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JennyK
Gelding
"And I believe was top on the VDW AR"
Yes. And applying the Pegwell Bay approach he was one of two "gaining a lot of plus marks" and a long way clear of the other on ARs.
Sadly, things work out that well via the PB approach much less often than would be convenient. One might have found Hyperfocus in the 4.30 Chester using it, but not Holkham Bay in the 5.20 York or Pisanello.
Yes. And applying the Pegwell Bay approach he was one of two "gaining a lot of plus marks" and a long way clear of the other on ARs.
Sadly, things work out that well via the PB approach much less often than would be convenient. One might have found Hyperfocus in the 4.30 Chester using it, but not Holkham Bay in the 5.20 York or Pisanello.
Nellsman
Colt
JennyK
Gelding
More than one way of getting from A to B,
Nellsman.
Only one race of interest to me today, the 5.45 Thirsk, and Looking For Lynda is a perfect example of those where making the right judgements most of the time is crucial for the bottom line.
As a 4yo, in the absence of clear evidence to the contrary the assumption must surely be that he is progessive. The hypothetical green line shows that to win today only a little improvement will be needed from his win on 10/09/23. Entirely realistic. And although he was beaten in his last two runs, he ran close to what he will need to do to win today and arguably faces weaker opposition than in previous two.
Given that he is almost certainly good enough, ability-wise, is a form horse on VDW's criteria, and with conditions to suit, he warrants serious consideration. The primary question with this sort, as so often, is whether the form is good enough.
Nellsman.Only one race of interest to me today, the 5.45 Thirsk, and Looking For Lynda is a perfect example of those where making the right judgements most of the time is crucial for the bottom line.
As a 4yo, in the absence of clear evidence to the contrary the assumption must surely be that he is progessive. The hypothetical green line shows that to win today only a little improvement will be needed from his win on 10/09/23. Entirely realistic. And although he was beaten in his last two runs, he ran close to what he will need to do to win today and arguably faces weaker opposition than in previous two.
Given that he is almost certainly good enough, ability-wise, is a form horse on VDW's criteria, and with conditions to suit, he warrants serious consideration. The primary question with this sort, as so often, is whether the form is good enough.
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Chesham
Sire
Not a betting Race for me
LTO Fair Wind (OR 84) won 2nd Dream Composer (OR 87) in a class DC Next Time out won a class 2 and is now off an OR of 94
Fair Wind is on OR 90
Going up in class and LTO recorded an RPR 99and using the
TheBluesBrother Comparison chart = Class 2
LTO Race TBB fig puts Fir Wind 1 Lb well in
Ran the sectional 2f out much faster than anything else in the race and still managed to record the fastest final sectional
According to TF Chart a Strong Pace predicted and FW likely to be held upso will need a well timed run
Jockey Runs to form % 66.8
Trainer 67.1
LTO Fair Wind (OR 84) won 2nd Dream Composer (OR 87) in a class DC Next Time out won a class 2 and is now off an OR of 94
Fair Wind is on OR 90
Going up in class and LTO recorded an RPR 99and using the
TheBluesBrother Comparison chart = Class 2LTO Race TBB fig puts Fir Wind 1 Lb well in
Ran the sectional 2f out much faster than anything else in the race and still managed to record the fastest final sectional
According to TF Chart a Strong Pace predicted and FW likely to be held upso will need a well timed run
Jockey Runs to form % 66.8
Trainer 67.1
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JennyK
Gelding
Cheers,
T
Tufnel, but I have only just answered my own question - is the form good enough? - and on balance my answer is no.
For me the key race is that on 16 May, where LFL finished 2nd to Clarendon. It was reasonable for C to win that race, a class 258, coming as 4th in a class 206 as 2nd favourite, but it doesn't for me make the form of that race all that exciting. True, C has won again since, but only an egg and spoon race abroad when well in on Official Ratings. LFL was 3rd favourite that day, to Korker and Maine Wave, and he beat them both, but both had been well beaten in their previous runs, albeit in MW's case much higher class, and have done nothing of note since.
On the 16 May form, up in class today, albeit with a weaker field, LFL has it all to do.
Does the 01/06/24 race change anything? Higher class than the race on 16 May, and today's, and a marginally better performance on my ratings (but not the RPR ones). He was beaten by Dream Composer, coming from a 106 lto, and Democracy Dilemma, 2nd in a class 162. DC hasn't run since; DD once, a decent performance but not game-changing. So maybe marginally.
LFL has been very consistent in five runs this year and could be said to deserve a win, and he well might get one. But the form doesn't look quite good enough to me for a bet.
For me the key race is that on 16 May, where LFL finished 2nd to Clarendon. It was reasonable for C to win that race, a class 258, coming as 4th in a class 206 as 2nd favourite, but it doesn't for me make the form of that race all that exciting. True, C has won again since, but only an egg and spoon race abroad when well in on Official Ratings. LFL was 3rd favourite that day, to Korker and Maine Wave, and he beat them both, but both had been well beaten in their previous runs, albeit in MW's case much higher class, and have done nothing of note since.
On the 16 May form, up in class today, albeit with a weaker field, LFL has it all to do.
Does the 01/06/24 race change anything? Higher class than the race on 16 May, and today's, and a marginally better performance on my ratings (but not the RPR ones). He was beaten by Dream Composer, coming from a 106 lto, and Democracy Dilemma, 2nd in a class 162. DC hasn't run since; DD once, a decent performance but not game-changing. So maybe marginally.
LFL has been very consistent in five runs this year and could be said to deserve a win, and he well might get one. But the form doesn't look quite good enough to me for a bet.
