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VDW my take on races today

Michael231

Michael231

Gelding
This may be a load of rubbish but nothing ventured nothing gained.
Not expecting a lot as these are grade 4 and we know the better grades are where the winners come from.

Yarmouth 4.00 Magic memories = 7, Lakota brave = 7, 4s or better Lakota brave a bet
Kempton 6.40 Blue day = 6, Jimmy speaking = 6 NO BET
Hamilton 7.20 Mr Irrelevant = 5, Dubai Hills = 5 NO BET
Hamilton 7.50 Winter Crown = 6, Jordan Electrics = 5, Sacred Falls = 5 NO BET

Been given a chance by the handicapper from best runs last 6 races
Handicapping
4.00 Yarmouth
Lakota Brave
Baltimore Boy

6.40 Kempton
Solar Aclaim
Drama

7.20 Hamilton
Pals Battalion

Good luck with yours
 
Todays foray into the unknown
3 for now 1 Nottingham and 2 Newbury.
3.45 Nott NO BET
4.30 NEWBURY NO BET
5.05 NEWBURY NO BET
Although no bets above there are possibilities with the Handicappers

3.45 Nott Acotango
4.30 Newbury Sterling knight, Game set, Epsom faithful and book of life
5.05 Newbury Haziym, Crows nest, Whenthedealisdone, one more wave and starproof
For me, I'd go for the one that seems to be getting backed the most

good luck with yours
 
Good luck today, Michael231 Michael231

I think it will be difficult to find a more plausible 34.0 bet today, or for that matter this year, than Sterling Knight in the 4.30 Newbury. Were he to win, he'd be the longest priced dabble that has come off for me for a quite a long time.
 
I learn
I learnt most of it from Jackform Jackform
As he is the font of knowledge, and looking at past races that have been put up by fellow enthusiasts, sometimes I think how did I not see that all those years ago.
Still a long way to go but I hope I'm on the right track.
Re the handicapping this is a bye product of the vdw that I found while using up to 10 columns and would have done some for this evenings card jumps but it takes me a while to sort it all.
Will get easier when have done it for a few weeks or so some parts will need to be worked on to get it how I want.
It's surprising how many vdw picks come up that are also Handicap ones as well
I Will keep trying trying to get it right the worse part is doing all the work and not finding a bet.
Hope to do more winning as the season progresses.
 
"You can't back them all I'm afraid"

Indeed not. So many races each day. Time available being the limiting factor for everyone, an important question is how best to use it, and VDW offered one suggestion - "the race from each card having the highest prize-money." Obviously there are other possibilities but even narrowing the cards by type of race: flat or NH, handicaps or non handicaps, by official class gradings, etc etc can often leave one with more than can conveniently be managed.

For that reason I am testing a way of trying to get a very quick sense of how competitive a race is likely to be. Yesterday, the 4.30 Newbury was the race that inerested me most; today it is the 1.50 York. The attached screen shots hopefully illustrate why today's looks a much trickier proposition.
 

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  • 4.30 Newbury (13 June).png
    4.30 Newbury (13 June).png
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  • 1.50 York (14 June).png
    1.50 York (14 June).png
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I still use my basic filters that can reduce the list of races on a day to about three or four. Even on a busy bank holiday.

Flat
Class: Group 1 to class 3
Distance: 7f-12f
Runners: 5-12
Ground: no slower than good to soft (eliminate good to soft meeting if rain is forecast throughout the day)
No 2-y-o races
No Chester meetings

Other filters
all runners to have had at least two runs
eliminate races where one or more in the first three of the market have had a long layoff. This is optional if the particular runner has no chance on form

Jumps
Hurdles only
Class: Grade 1 to class 3
Distance: up to 2m 4f
Runners: 5-12
Ground: no slower than good to soft (eliminate good to soft meeting if rain is forecast throughout the day)

Other filters
(see above)

Sometimes I look at other race types outside of these filters if there is a good horse running in a particular race.

The remaining races are then evaluated in order of prize money (highest first).

Regards
 
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I would say your having it covered pretty good Leodis Leodis but i would add in if any group races and any the first three in betting run abroad in last 2 races dismiss race. And over jumps if any in first three in betting are irish dismiss race.
 
gerry gerry ,

I don't mind overseas races/form as long as ratings can be established in the same way as the UK.

What is your reasoning for Irish runners?

Regards
 
There is no doubt irish racing and uk racing are compleatly two differant sources, the money they race for to start with is compleatly differant and the going so i find that any race with irish runner its usually impossible to get any collateral form to justify why you think the irish horse is better or worse than uk horse.
As soon as i see it the first thing i think of is trouble.
 
Good afternoon all.
JennyK JennyK are you sure you need to go back that far, looking at the data your using.
4 Races today managed to get done with no interruptions.
Same as yesterday regards the VDW picks and the Handicap side of it.

York 3.00
Al Simmo = 5 could be a bet if fit watch betting
Midream = 6
Katey Kontent = 6

Sandown 3.15
Majestic = 6 NO BET
Sweet Reward NO BET
Wisper NO BET

YORK 16.10
All to close so no bet

Newton abbot 1.10
Sacre Coeur = 8 A bet if can get 5s or better
Issuing Authority =6

Now the Handicap blots as I will call them
3.00 york
Queen Of Mougins
Conservationist*
Thursdays Child
Lady Pink Rose*
3.15 Sandown
Sweet reward
Wisper
Prince maxi
Bizarre law
Crystal mariner

4.10 York
Killybegs warrior
Parlando*
Masekela*
High fibre
Qitaal

18.10 Newton abbot
No getaway

Good luck with yours

 
Michael231 Michael231

In a word, yes.

For ability, VDW went all the way back - AR being the average of all wins. (I am testing only going back to wins since 01/01/23 to see if it helps get an initial sense of the ease/difficulty of a race. Not to find the winner; just to make a judgement as to whether it is worth committing serious time to.)

For form, usually VDW seems to have used just the last three races, but that was for what he called "exposed form". One often needs to go back further if one is aiming to identify what he called "less obvious form".

For conditions, the more data the more confident one can be about whether or not a possible selection can handle, for example, soft going or a stiff course.

Good luck today. The only race we have both looked at is the 4.10 York, where we have reached the same conclusion - no bet. I think the most interesting runner is Scampi. He is entered in the John Smiths, but if the trainer follows the same path as the last two years, the Old Newton Cup strikes me as the more realistic. Not backing Scampi today (he is on my to follow list), I'll be moderately upset if he wins.
 
Hi JennyK JennyK,
Scampi has a really poor draw to overcome and I think all of the 4yo's are in the mix in this race too. It should be interesting. Just a quick question if I may. With regard to your ratings are you only taking account of best winning ratings when evaluating?
 
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