Value ?

[BC]

You cannot know BFSP before the off so a price say 1 minute to the off would have to do. As for execution all the above would be automated, the calc's and the bet execution. Of course one could test it with odds an hour before racing which allows for a manual approach. More info here

Two Step Models for Horse Racing

A machine learning algorithm like a Neural Network takes a set of data along with a target feature and attempts to find relationships between the inputs and the target. So for example let’s l…

markatsmartersig.wordpress.com

I know we got off on the wrong foot. And you were right to ask me to write in a friendlier voice. So please take this as friendly criticism.

Why are you using a free WordPress site plastered with adverts?

A clever chap like you could easily host a simple website on an inexpensive server (they even do free SSL/HTTPS nowadays).

Or, if you didn't want to do that, pay to go ad-free. I can't imagine it's expensive.

You're promoting a product you think will make your clients money. How do you think it looks if the promoter can't afford to pay a few quid for its promotion?

I've written it as friendly as I can. I may be wrong about a lot of things. But I'm right about this.

 

[MySportsAI]

I know we've not got off on the right foot. And you were right to ask me to write in a friendlier voice. So please take this as friendly criticism.

Why are you using a free WordPress site plastered with adverts?

A clever chap like you could easily host a simple website on an inexpensive server (they even do free SSL/HTTPS nowadays).

Or, if you didn't want to do that, pay to go ad-free. I can't imagine it's expensive.

You're promoting a product you think will make your clients money. How do you think it looks if the promoter can't afford to pay a few quid for its promotion?

I've written it as friendly as I can. I may be wrong about a lot of things. But I'm right about this.

Thanks for the advice

 

[MySportsAI]

I would also add that when using a 2 step process as described it is important to realise that a set of ratings may be well calibrated in a certain range, its important to check your calibration plot and then going forward test your oddsline within this range

 

[BC]

I've read the article, and this is above my pay grade.

I think you're making the mistake a lot of clever people make. You think most people know and understand more than we do. Most of us are not as smart as you think we are. Nowhere near, in fact.

(I'm speaking about myself here, obviously.)

I first noticed it while chatting with my brother-in-law, a retired professor (though he still goes in) from Imperial College. He was part of the CERN project. It dawned on me from the way he was speaking that he really thought I understood what he was saying. In reality, he couldn't hear the whooshing noise as his words flew over my head.

Now I've read what you're up to (and I read it all); I'm going to politely duck out of that part of the conversation.

However, I would still like to pick you up on the framing of your poll.

A quick poll on this thorny subject

Do you think as punters we should focus on

a) who will win the race
b) Who is overpriced even if they are not the most likely winner

I presume you read the replies from T tacker in post #3, Jackform in post #5, BC in post #18, and Chesham in post #19.

Not one contributor answered "a)" without some sort of qualification about price. And the same is true in the other thread.

Two-Step Process

In other words, the ones you are worried about do realise it is not simply a case of finding the winner.

STEP 1: Review the form and perhaps make a selection of some sort;
STEP 2: Ensure the price is above a certain level. (This can be done either on a race-by-race basis or as a predetermined minimum based on one's own individual historical evidence.)

The above was written with my friendly hat on - I hope it came across that way.

 

[Jackform]

BC , I did this rating for you but it's not gone well with withdrawal altering the prices, however I will leave it as it is. Do you believe it is a good idea to do all this detail before making a decision to risk a bet?

Newmarket (G watering) Market odds from 9.04am. A class 5 3yo hcap over 1 mile with 8 runners on . Top track trainer Charlie Appleby. Top track rider R Havlin.
Clive Holt Fineform master formula rating from RP online data.

2.40 Early market expected no's 5, 4, 6, 1 indicating a probable win from these.

1. 12 = 4/1 My tissue (11/2 mkt) Napolion (D O'Meara on my current top 20 Flat list but low strike-rate) Pro adce is 13/2 absolute lowest accaptable odds.
2. 0 - ? (14/1)
3. 0 - ? (15/2) (AERIAL SILK HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN AND THAT THROWS THE RATIN INTO SOME DISARRAY , B*GGER!)
4. 13 = 7/2 (4/1) Royal Bodyguard. Pro advice lowest 11/2
5. 12 = 4/1 (5/2) Guest House. Pro advice lowest 11/4
6. 13 = 7/2 (9/2) Khuskhas (R Havlin up). Pro advice lowest 11/2
7. 4 = 14/1 (50/1)
8. 4 = 14/1 (9/1)

Comment: Class 5 race so not ideal for punting as they can be in-and-out of form? I might try dutching Napolion/Guest House for value?
At The Races advice in comparison
NAPOLIAN returned to form when denied by a short head at Doncaster recently and compensation could be on the horizon. A 1lb nudge up in the ratings looks fair and he gets the vote over Royal Bodyguard. Michael Bell's inmate arrives on the back of a solid second at Ffos Las and he's more convincing than Yarmouth winner Guest House, who appears to save his best for that venue.
Top Tip: Napolian (1)
Watch out for: Royal Bodyguard (4)
Expert View Verdict
Guest House is in fine form but both wins have come at Yarmouth and his new mark asks more now back up into a Class 5. There are two to be interested in against him, namely AERIAL SILK and La Mariposa. The selection comes from a yard that is admittedly struggling for form, but he looks really well weighted on 2yo form and he was a non-stayer over almost 10f last time. Back down to 8f and returning to turf, he's worth chancing. La Mariposa is another dropping in trip having failed to stay 10f last time.

1-2-3 Selections
Aerial Silk (3)La Mariposa (7)Guest House (5)

 

[DuckandDive]

Those of you who feel that value is not the way to focus, please explain what Hugh Taylor has been doing for the last 20 years

If you can get the advertised prices, yes, but someone analysed his overall record. There is an overall loss at ISP.

 

[DuckandDive]

A quick poll on this thorny subject

Do you think as punters we should focus on

a) who will win the race
b) Who is overpriced even if they are not the most likely winner

b) if you had a tried and trusted model long-term.

 

[pete]

There is an overall loss at ISP

Of course there is .. because the general public has moved the price 30% after he has advised.
That does not mean he isnt hitting value, it means that he is spotting it before others.

There is a paid service on twitter, posts the night before racing. The odds of every single horse he tips up is cut in half. Hugely profitable, tough to "get on" as odds are slashed immediately. Also, you will not keep an account open for more than a week if you follow him. He also has a "day service" not nearly as profitable .. if you can make money betting on the day of racing after 10am once much of the vale has been taken .. you are doing very well.

 

[Chesham]

1. Tactical Pace Map (Chester 1m 6f 145y)​

With the 1m 6f start at Chester, the field hits the first tight bend almost immediately.

• The Front End: Lazy Griff (Draw 3) is a natural front-runner who made all to win at Sandown. Duraji (Draw 8) also prefers to force the pace, but from the outside stall, he risks being trapped wide if he tries to cross Lazy Griff into the first turn.
• The Stalkers: By The Book (Draw 7) and Fantasy World (Draw 5) have the tactical speed to track the leaders without getting caught in an early speed duel. By The Book’s ability to travel strongly in behind the pace fits this track perfectly.

2. Updated True Probabilities & Market Matrix​

Based on the highly efficient 101.4% Betfair book, here are the Shin True Win probabilities and the target value odds (factoring in a commission and a +5% overlay buffer).

Horse	Current BF	True Win %	Fair Win Tissue	Target Win (+EV)	PR% (Top 3)
Lazy Griff	3.10	31.50%	3.17	3.35 - 3.40	68.5%
By The Book	3.75	26.10%	3.83	4.05 - 4.15	62.0%
Fantasy World	6.00	16.30%	6.13	6.50 - 6.70	47.5%
Lady Vivian	15.00	6.80%	14.70	15.80 - 16.50	26.5%
Midak	17.50	5.80%	17.24	18.50 - 19.50	23.8%
Duraji	19.50	5.10%	19.60	21.00 - 22.00	21.5%
Orchard Keeper	20.00	4.90%	20.40	22.00 - 23.00	20.8%
Tactician	36.00	2.50%	40.00	44.00+	11.4%

3. Corrected Race Summary Chart (UK Form Only)​

Note: the raw speed figures. By The Book’s form has been scrubbed of the Meydan runs to reflect strictly UK conditions.

Horse (Draw)	Pace Profile	PR% (Top 3)	Tfig (Last 3 UK)	CCR Rating	Timeform Comments (Last 3 UK)
Lazy Griff (3)	Front-Runner	68.5%	---, 53, 47	Pending	1. disappointed in first-time cheekpieces, this his first run on firmish ground... led 3f, chased leaders after, shaken up 3f out, soon beaten. 2. following an encouraging return, made the most of a good opportunity... made all, kicked on entering straight... worthy new blood on staying scene. 3. had 3-y-o season cut short... chased leader, not quicken over 2f out, rallied approaching final 1f, kept on; will prove suited by at least 2m.
By The Book (7)	Prominent	62.0%	70, 98, 84	Pending	1. (Beverley) after 3 months off, was returned to a more realistic level... soon tracked pace, edged right before leading 1f out, headed final 100 yds. 2. (Newmarket) patiently ridden, progress on far flank over 2f out, threatened briefly, no extra only late on; did enough to think he stayed this longer trip... 3. (Chelmsford) mid-division, shaken up briefly home turn, led final 1f, edged left, forged clear; will go on improving...
Fantasy World(5)	Stalker	47.5%	81(H), 80(H), 67	Pending	1. (Hurdle) in first-time cheekpieces, ran badly faced with a stiff task; soon led, raced freely, folded tamely... 2. (Hurdle) turned in a much more encouraging effort... open to further improvement. 3. (Flat) badly off compared to handicap terms, seemed to excel himself up in grade... tracked pace, travelled well, led over 1f out, always doing enough.
Lady Vivian(4)	Mid-Pack	26.5%	45, ---, 63	Pending	1. over an extra 2f, showed herself effective at the trip and finished second at listed level... patiently ridden, effort 3f out, took second 1f out, not quicken. 2. was effectively taking a drop in grade... led, shaken up under 2f out, headed under 1f out, one paced. 3. had a 2f longer trip on softer ground to contend with... in touch, driven 3f out, weakened over 1f out.
Midak(2)	Hold-up	23.8%	70, 98, 86	Pending	1. totally blew the start then settled no better for the return of a hood... in rear, ridden over 2f out, made no impression. 2. wasn't far off his best but left impression he wasn't comfortable on firm ground... steadied start, held up, plugged on final 1f. 3. showed more of what he's about back on turf... dwelt, held up, travelled fluently, effort under 2f out, threatened briefly.
Duraji(8)	Front-Runner	21.5%	84, 60, 83	Pending	1. bounced back to form, settling better with much more patient tactics readopted; dwelt, in rear, kept on. 2. was too far free down in trip... led, headed under 3f out, soon beaten. 3. (Chester Cup): ran a cracker faced with a difficult draw... led and soon tacked over to rail, went with zest, kicked on approaching straight, worn down final 50 yds.
Orchard Keeper(6)	Prominent	20.8%	85, 85, 26	Pending	1. shaped as if retaining all ability after 10 months off... tracked pace, took keen hold, shaken up over 2f out, plugged on final 1f. 2. backed up her Chester effort in similar company, ridden to make use of stamina... made running, headed 2f out, not quicken. 3. faced a stiff task in this grade and ran as well as could be expected... tracked pace, pushed along.
Tactician(1)	Closer	11.4%	86, 99, 70	Pending	1. not only failed to raise his game for cheekpieces... raced off pace, went prominent briefly 3f out, struggling soon after. 2. seemed to find drop back in trip barely adequate... raced off pace, progress out wide 3f out, kept on. 3. has made a good start in handicaps... held up, headway and went prominent early final circuit, stayed on well to lead near finish.

 

[Chesham]

Here is the complete analysis and summary chart for the Newmarket 2:44pm.

I have noted the non-runner (Aerial Silk), meaning this is a 7-runner field paying 2 places on the Betfair Exchange. I have also strictly isolated the raw Timeform Speed Figures (Tfigs), ensuring Napolian is correctly logged with a 53 LTO.

1. Tactical Pace Map (Newmarket 1m)​

The July Course at Newmarket features the straight Bunbury Mile with significant undulations for the first three-quarters of a mile, running downhill before a stiff climb to the finish.

• The Pace Setters: Khuskhas (Draw 7) and Guest House (Draw 3). Khuskhas travelled well and led over 3f out in her recent win here, while Guest House won at Yarmouth by taking a very prominent, positive ride under Silvestre De Sousa. Expect these two to dictate the gallop.
• The Hold-up Horses: Napolian, Royal Bodyguard, and Karakula Dancer all have distinct patterns of being "waited with" or racing off the pace. If Khuskhas and Guest House get into a battle on the uphill finish, it will perfectly set up the late closers. Royal Bodyguard, in particular, looks dangerous given his tendency to travel strongly from the rear before mounting late challenges.

2. Updated True Probabilities & Market Matrix​

The live Betfair Win market is trading at an efficient 101.5% book. Using model to strip the bookmaker margin and correctly penalize the favorite-longshot bias, here is the true 100% mathematical probability matrix.

Horse	Current BF Back	True Win %	Fair Win Tissue
Guest House	3.20	31.80%	3.14
Khuskhas	4.50	22.50%	4.44
Royal Bodyguard	5.00	20.00%	5.00
Napolian	7.40	13.30%	7.52
Karakula Dancer	15.00	6.00%	16.67
Forever Endless	16.00	5.30%	18.87
La Mariposa	60.00	1.10%	90.90

4. Fair Tissue & Value Target Odds (Win & Top 2 Place)​

Factoring in a Betfair commission and a +5% expected value buffer to guarantee long-term edge:

Horse	Fair Win Tissue	Target Win Odds (+EV)	Fair Place Tissue (2 Places)	Target Place Odds (+EV)
Guest House	3.14	3.30 - 3.40	1.89	2.00 - 2.05
Khuskhas	4.44	4.70 - 4.80	2.44	2.60 - 2.65
Royal Bodyguard	5.00	5.30 - 5.40	2.56	2.75 - 2.85
Napolian	7.52	8.00 - 8.20	3.57	3.85 - 4.00
Karakula Dancer	16.67	17.80 - 18.50	7.69	8.20 - 8.50
Forever Endless	18.87	20.00 - 21.00	9.09	9.70 - 10.00
La Mariposa	90.90	100.00+	33.00	36.00+

Tactical Betting Angles​

• Royal Bodyguard (Draw 4): His Tfig of 72 two starts ago over a straight mile at Newmarket (July) is the standout speed figure in the race. At a current Betfair price of 5.00, he is trading right at zero expected value (Fair odds 5.00). If he drifts out to 5.30 or better, he becomes an exceptional mathematical and tactical back.

• Race Summary Chart (7 Runners — Top 2 Places)​

  Horse (Draw)	Pace Profile	PR% (Top 2)	Tfig (Last 3)	CCR Rating	Timeform Comments (Last 3)
  Guest House (3)	Prominent / Leader	~53%	55, 35, 56	Pending	1. justified strength in market... handily placed under a more positive ride... led approaching 2f out, drew clear. 2. ran up to best; waited with, good headway over 2f out, not quicken. 3. mid-division, pushed along, headway under pressure, effort flattened out.
  Khuskhas(7)	Prominent / Leader	~41%	67, 72, 42	Pending	1. close up after 2f, challenged over 2f out, no extra final 1f. 2. proved better than ever... raced wide, prominent, travelled well, led over 3f out, ran on. 3. bumped start, mid-division, not settle fully, never landed a blow.
  Royal Bodyguard(4)	Hold-up / Closer	~39%	15, 72, 27	Pending	1. waited with, raced freely, effort under 2f out, ran on without getting on terms... 2. waited with, progress over 3f out, challenged under 2f out, upsides 1f out, no extra. 3. awkward leaving stalls, raced off the pace, raced freely, beaten 3f out.
  Napolian(1)	Mid-Pack / Closer	~28%	53, 44, 60	Pending	1. in first-time hood... dwelt, in rear, shaken up over 2f out, good headway approaching final 1f, kept on well, just failed. 2. prominent, took keen hold, weakened over 1f out. 3. mid-division, settled better, ridden over 2f out, one paced.
  Karakula Dancer (6)	Off-Pace	~13%	43, 57, 66	Pending	1. back on all-weather, was below form; raced off the pace... 2. didn't look altogether at home on track... waited with, headway 2f out, denied a run, kept on again... 3. waited with, travelled fluently, headway when not clear run, ran on.
  Forever Endless (2)	Mid-Pack	~11%	58, 28, 9	Pending	1. matched previous form; mid-field, shaken up 3f out, closed on leading trio, no extra. 2. ran to a similar level as on debut; in touch, ridden 3f out, one paced. 3. very slowly away, raced off the pace, ridden early in straight, never a threat.
  La Mariposa(5)	Mid-Pack	~3%	---, 18, 12	Pending	1. failed badly to repeat last effort... chased leader until 3f out, no response. 2. dwelt, raced off the pace, pushed along 3f out, ran green... 3. mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out.

 

[Outlander]

Never understood why a lot of guys on the forum are talking about horses running 2 days from now, always put mr off following because by the time the race in run I would have forgot the post, now I understand, if I ever start betting on UK racing I will be looking 2 days in advance, that’s if my 1 remaining betting account with skybet have prices that early…I’ve never looked

 

[BC]

BC , I did this rating for you but it's not gone well with withdrawal altering the prices, however I will leave it as it is. Do you believe it is a good idea to do all this detail before making a decision to risk a bet?

Jackform, given your track record, I can safely say you don't need my advice. So I can only assume you posted this for my benefit, and for that I thank you.

But, as previously mentioned, please don't waste your time trying to help me. There is no point. I am beyond help; besides, I couldn't bet even if I wanted to. (As previously detailed, so let's not go there.)

As an academic exercise, and speaking for myself and myself alone:

1. I wouldn't have looked at the race. I have found that the ability to correctly analyse handicaps is beyond my tiny brain.
2. No, that detailed analysis is not something I would do any more. I wouldn't put anyone off doing it, though. A person needs to find what works for them, and I am certainly not the person to give advice, especially to someone with experience and a much better understanding of horse racing than I will ever possess.

That's not to say I don't have my own opinion, though. In fact, I'm probably too opinionated for my own good. Can you also hear the words "seconded", "too true", and "agreed" echoing through the ether?

I have a peculiar way of working that would not suit 99.9% of bettors. It came to me when I read VDW's line, "Some stick out like a sore thumb": If they are "sore thumbs", then surely the people who compile the odds will see them (usually short-priced favourites), then I look at the form using the RP's links to the runners, keeping this post's philosophy in mind (from paragraph 2 down to the penultimate one). If it is still a potential selection, I decide whether the odds on offer are above my minimum.

Stupid right? The thing is, if profit is the goal, it does seem to work on my admittedly small sample size. At least for now.

 

[BC]

If you can get the advertised prices, yes, but someone analysed his overall record. There is an overall loss at ISP.

DuckandDive, I think MySportsAI's point is not to follow Hugh Taylor, but to become a Hugh Taylor or a Bill Benter.

The problem is, of course, that for every one of those who make it to that level, there are probably 1,000 or more who tried. I'm not keen on those odds myself.

 

[BC]

Tactical Betting Angles

• Royal Bodyguard (Draw 4): His Tfig of 72 two starts ago over a straight mile at Newmarket (July) is the standout speed figure in the race. At a current Betfair price of 5.00, he is trading right at zero expected value (Fair odds 5.00). If he drifts out to 5.30 or better, he becomes an exceptional mathematical and tactical back.

Well done as usual Chesham - you must get fed up of hearing it!

I assume you're using an AI for this, yes?

 

[Chesham]

Yep using a few different combinations of algorithms and feeding in the best reliable data that the algorithms need to crunch the data

 

[DuckandDive]

@

DuckandDive, I think @

MySportsAI's point is not to follow Hugh Taylor, but to become a Hugh Taylor or a Bill Benter.

Makes sense. I used to know someone called Bill Taylor, does that count?

 

[gerry]

I think you make a lot of sense personally BC and you usually do in your funny witty way and your right if there is going to be a good thing today or any day for that matter then makes logic that will be short as the markets are supposed to be spot on.
And adding to that if 34 % of favs win all season every season roughly then there should be no need to go away from them just study every race through out any fav you have doubt about. Do it again with the balance of horses left yet again once mind is clear well yours might not be granted with jokes but you can follow i will print it slow so you follow it can you spot where i started typing slow good fellow .
Then when you have at least a sixth of the days races you know you have even likely thrown half the winning favs a s third win usually but once you cut it down final time thats your bet or bets for day sorted and if they keep getting beat your hopeless lol.

 

[Chesham]

Hi gerry if you want to narrow down your fav pick . To find false one, go for those who have Price disparity greater than 2.0

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/price-disparity.1987/post-215898


Also examples

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/micks-waffle.1326/post-22629

 

[BC]

I think you make a lot of sense personally BC and you usually do in your funny witty way and your right if there is going to be a good thing today or any day for that matter then makes logic that will be short as the markets are supposed to be spot on.
And adding to that if 34 % of favs win all season every season roughly then there should be no need to go away from them just study every race through out any fav you have doubt about. Do it again with the balance of horses left yet again once mind is clear well yours might not be granted with jokes but you can follow i will print it slow so you follow it can you spot where i started typing slow good fellow .
Then when you have at least a sixth of the days races you know you have even likely thrown half the winning favs a s third win usually but once you cut it down final time thats your bet or bets for day sorted and if they keep getting beat your hopeless lol.

Thank you for typing slowly. You've no idea how much it helped.

Most days, I throw the lot out. Nothing today. No selections = no stress. My blood pressure has almost gone back to normal after Kalpana's short-head victory on Thursday.

 

[tacker]

Thank you for typing slowly. You've no idea how much it helped.

Most days, I throw the lot out. Nothing today. No selections = no stress. My blood pressure has almost gone back to normal after Kalpana's short-head victory on Thursday.

and yet a credit to the forum.