Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
markfinn
Sire
| No. | Horse | Age | Notes |
| 1 | Poet Master (IRE) | 6 | Ref win: Newmarket 18 Apr 24, Hcp Cl2, GD, 7f, OR 100, 9-5 (most recent HANDICAP win in the 3yr window). HRB's 'last win mark 105' is the Curragh Gr2 (21 Jul 24), a Non-Handicap, so it is not used. 5lb above the handicap mark and 7lb heavier. All 9 runs since Apr 24 were in Group/Listed races: 1 win (that Gr2), last two 7/11 and 7/8. First handicap run since Apr 24. Going PROVEN on Good. 67 days since last run (over 28 = risk flag). Lee was 2nd on him in a Gr2 (Oct 25). Seasonality: Oct Turf 6yo = PLUS. |
| 2 | Pellitory | 4 | CARRIES 6LB PENALTY: official OR 98 used (HRB shows 104 = 98 + 6). Ref win: Ayr 19 Sep 26 (14 days ago), Hcp Cl2 (£93k), HEAVY, 6f, OR 98, 9-0, Tudhope riding. Level on OR; 11lb heavier (9-11 v 9-0), 8lb after the 4yo allowance = ⚑ HEAVY. Going PROVEN on Good/GF: won Haydock 8 Aug 26 (GD, OR 94), 2nd York 10 Jul 26 (GD-FM, beaten a head). ASCOT RECORD on this course and distance: 26/28 (11.3L), 16/28 (8.1L), 7/15 (9.5L). O'Meara 0 from 20 and Tudhope 0 from 16 at Ascot in the last 365 days. Stall 17. Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 3 | Two Tribes | 5 | Ref win: Goodwood 2 Aug 25, Hcp Cl2 (£129k), GD-SFT, 6f, OR 95, 9-0. 8lb above that mark, 10lb heavier (6 and 8 after the 5yo allowance) = ⚑ HEAVY. CD: won this course and distance 26 Jul 25 (GD, OR 90). Ascot 7f since: 2nd of 16 (25 Jul 26, 1.3L), 3rd of 8 (5 Sep 26, 2.9L, behind Thunder Call). HRB band record: 0 from 10 when rated 101-110. Going PROVEN on Good/GF. Moore has not ridden him. Spencer 0 from 15 at Ascot in the last 365 days. Seasonality: Oct Turf 5yo = PLUS. |
| 4 | Arctic Dawn | 5 | Ref win: Newmarket (July) 8 Aug 26, Hcp Cl2, GD-FM, 7f, OR 100, 10-0. 3lb above that mark, 4lb LIGHTER. Going PROVEN: both 2026 wins on GD-FM. Ran 7 days ago: 4th of 12 at Newmarket off 102, beaten 2L, 'kept on well, nearest finish'. Ascot 7f: 6/16 (1.8L, Jul 26), 24/28 (10L, Jun 26). Shepherd has not ridden him. Kubler 0 from 7 at Ascot in the last 365 days. Seasonality: Oct Turf 5yo = PLUS. |
| 5 | Five Ways | 3 | UNEXPOSED PATH (3yo, no handicap win: wins were a Novice and a Gr3). Trainer form 30: Balding's last winner was on or after 24 Sep (HRB report of 27 Sep showed 3 days), so within 28 days. OR trajectory 15: 104 for each of his last two runs and today, unchanged. Best handicap run 0: 9/12 (7L), 11/13 (6.6L), 13/22 (6.7L). Watson has won on him twice. Ran 7 days ago: 9/12 at Newmarket, 'no chance with leaders'. Going: novice win on GD-FM. Seasonality: Oct Turf 3yo = n/a. |
| 6 | Thunder Call | 3 | Ref win: THIS COURSE AND DISTANCE, Ascot 5 Sep 26, Hcp Cl2, GD-FM, 7f, OR 93, 8-12, won by 2.8L 'eased close home' (before the 12 Sep penalty date, so reassessed instead). Raised 9lb and 9lb heavier (4 and 4 after the 3yo allowance). Going PROVEN. 3 wins from 7, placed 6 times. Also won a 22-runner York handicap off 85. Davies has not ridden him. Stall 1. Seasonality: Oct Turf 3yo = n/a. |
| 7 | Great Acclaim | 5 | Ref win: Chepstow 7 Aug 25, Hcp Cl2, GD-SFT, 7f, OR 94, 9-1. 5lb above, 5lb heavier (3 and 3 after the 5yo allowance). Going PROVEN: won Goodwood 30 Jul 25 on GD. Ascot 7f: 3rd of 28 (18 Jun 26, <1L), 2nd of 28 (9 May 26, 1L), 2nd of 20 (Sep 25), 9/16 (Jul 26); no Ascot win. Last run Newbury 15 Aug, 7/8, beaten 8L. 49 days since last run (risk flag). HRB band record: 1 from 13 when rated 91-100. Visor: 0 from 4. Carmichael has not ridden him. Seasonality: Oct Turf 5yo = PLUS. |
| 8 | Hickory (IRE) | 8 | 8YO: if he topped the tissue the race would be NO BET (he does not). Ref win: Ascot 4 Sep 26, Hcp Cl2, GD, 1m, OR 95, 9-5. 4lb above, 1lb heavier. CD: won this course and distance 10 May 25 (GD-FM, OR 86). 4 Ascot wins in all. Going PROVEN. Held-up type (HU 20 of 34). McDonald has not ridden him. Osborne 5 from 15 at Ascot in the last 365 days. 29 days since last run. Seasonality: Oct Turf 8yo = NEGATIVE. |
| 9 | Moonfall (IRE) | 3 | Ref win: Ascot 18 Jun 26, Hcp Cl2 (30 runners), GD-FM, 1m, OR 90, 8-10. Raised 11lb and 10lb heavier (6 and 5 after the 3yo allowance). 2nd in both runs since (Ascot 1m off 97, Doncaster 1m off 99, both <1L). All handicap runs at 7½f-1m; only 7f run was a Gr2 at 2 (7/7). Going PROVEN. Loughnane won on him as a 2yo. Seasonality: Oct Turf 3yo = n/a. |
| 10 | Mezcala | 4 | Ref win: THIS COURSE AND DISTANCE, Ascot 18 Jun 26, Hcp Cl2 (28 runners), GD-FM, 7f, OR 94, 9-1. 3lb above and 3lb heavier, both level after the 4yo allowance. Going PROVEN. Since: 12/16 at Ascot 7f off 98 (3.6L, 'never on terms'), 6/17 at Doncaster 1m off 98 (4L, 'led briefly… no extra'); dropped 1lb to 97. Bass has won on him twice. Stall 16. TRAWL: fails, as his OR is not below the winning mark. Channon 1 from 19 at Ascot in the last 365 days. Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 11 | Desert Shadow | 4 | Ref win: Sandown 6 Aug 26, Hcp CLASS 4, GD-FM, 7f, OR 85, 10-2. That is Class 4 form; today is Class 2, a two-class RISE. Raised 11lb (8 after the 4yo allowance) but 13lb LIGHTER. 2nd at Sandown since off 94 (<1L, Cl3). Going PROVEN. Placed in 8 of 10. Shoemark has not ridden him. 35 days since last run (risk flag). Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 12 | Golden Mind (IRE) | 5 | Ref win: Doncaster 8 Nov 25, Hcp Cl2, HEAVY, 6f, OR 99, 9-2. 4lb BELOW that mark at the same weight (6lb and 2lb better after the 5yo allowance). GOING TRIED AND FAILED on Good to Firm in 2026, all at Ascot: 5 Sep (6f) 10/13, beaten 10.5L, 'struggling 3f out'; 25 Jul (7f) 15/16, 10.9L, 'lost touch'; 18 Jun (7f) 23/28, 10L, 'soon weakened'. On GOOD here he was 4th of 28 (9 May 26, 1.9L) and 4th of 21 (Jul 25, 2.4L). His handicap wins were on Heavy and on the all-weather. HRB band record: 1 from 13 when rated 91-100. OR 103 down to 95 since June. Fentiman has won on him. TRAWL: fails (D only, going flagged). Seasonality: Oct Turf 5yo = PLUS. |
| 13 | River King (IRE) | 4 | Ref win: Newbury 1 Jun 26, Hcp CLASS 4, GD-FM, 1m, OR 87, 9-11, made all. Class 4 form; today is Class 2, a two-class RISE. Raised 8lb (5 after the 4yo allowance) but 9lb LIGHTER. Since: 5th of 28 at Ascot 7f (3.1L, led until 1f out), 4th of 17 at Doncaster 1m (2.5L). Going PROVEN. Front-runner (FR 4 of 9). Levey has won on him. Stall 2. No C or D. Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 14 | Machadadorp | 3 | Ref win: York 20 Aug 26, Hcp Cl2 (£52k, 19 runners), GD-SFT, 7f, OR 88, 8-9, 'won going away'. Raised 8lb and 6lb heavier (3 and 1 after the 3yo allowance). Going PROVEN on GD-FM: 2nd Newmarket handicap (11 Jul, 3.5L), won a Novice. 3 wins from 6. Ascot: 6/7 on debut (1m Novice, 10L). Hutchinson has not ridden her (Murphy rode all 3 wins). 44 days since last run (risk flag). Seasonality: Oct Turf 3yo = n/a. |
| 15 | Realign (FR) | 4 | Ref win: Carlisle 30 May 26, Hcp Cl3, GD-FM, 6f, OR 92, 9-11. 2lb above (1 below after the 4yo allowance) and 10lb LIGHTER. That was a Class 3; today is Class 2, so no class drop. TRIP: every handicap run has been at 5f-6f; his only 7f run was a Maiden at 2 (3rd). Going PROVEN. Since the win: 8/27, 16/27, 10/20 in big 6f handicaps, beaten 1.8L-3.9L. Dobbs has not ridden him. 42 days since last run (risk flag). TRAWL: fails (no C or D; raw OR not below). Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 16 | The Fingal Raven (IRE) | 4 | NO ANCHOR: only win was an all-weather Novice, which does not count; 4yo, so not eligible for the unexposed path. Stay/Weight/OR = 0. Surface flag: 0 from 13 on turf. Recent handicap form: 3rd Newmarket 7 days ago (1.5L, led over 1f out), 2nd Ascot 7f 5 Sep (2.8L behind Thunder Call). Going fine on GD-FM. First-time cheekpieces. Carver was 2nd on him at Ascot. Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 17 | Hawksbill | 4 | NO ANCHOR: only win was a Novice; 4yo, so not eligible for the unexposed path. Stay/Weight/OR = 0. 0 from 13 in handicaps, placed 4 times (2nd at Ayr 19 Sep on Heavy, 1.3L). Mostly runs at 1m. Wood was 2nd on him. Seasonality: Oct Turf 4yo = n/a. |
| 18 | Aalto (FR) | 6 | Ref win: Newmarket (July) 11 Jul 26, Hcp Cl2 (£52k), GD-FM, 7f, OR 87, 8-10. 3lb above, 1lb heavier (no allowance at 6). Since: 3rd of 16 at Ascot 7f (25 Jul, 1.4L), 3rd in a Non-Handicap at Ascot, 2nd of 16 at Newbury (19 Sep, neck). Going PROVEN. Held-up type (HU 17 of 24), often slowly away. 2 wins from 24 (8%). Edmunds has not ridden him. Stall 3. Seasonality: Oct Turf 6yo = PLUS. |
dicko14
Dam
Rank
Horse
Draw
OR
Price
Calculated rating
Model %
EV
1
Poet Master
8
105
23.0
104.57
13.0%
+1.98
2
Thunder Call
1
102
4.5
104.41
12.5%
-0.44
3
Pellitory
17
104
17.0
104.10
11.8%
+1.01
4
Moonfall
11
101
5.0
103.23
9.9%
-0.51
5
Two Tribes
5
103
19.0
102.91
9.3%
+0.77
6
Five Ways
10
104
41.0
102.57
8.7%
+2.56
7
Arctic Dawn
18
103
26.0
102.36
8.3%
+1.17
8
Hickory
9
99
15.0
99.32
4.5%
-0.32
9
Great Acclaim
14
99
17.0
99.10
4.3%
-0.26
10
Mezcala
16
97
8.5
98.30
3.7%
-0.69
11
Machadadorp
13
96
11.0
96.86
2.8%
-0.70
12
Desert Shadow
6
96
13.0
96.57
2.6%
-0.66
13
River King
2
95
8.0
96.41
2.5%
-0.80
14
Realign
7
94
21.0
93.73
1.5%
-0.69
15
Golden Mind
4
95
41.0
93.57
1.4%
-0.41
16
The Fingal Raven
12
93
23.0
92.57
1.2%
-0.73
17
Hawksbill
15
92
15.0
92.32
1.1%
-0.83
18
Aalto
3
90
13.0
90.57
0.8%
-0.90
Horse
Draw
OR
Price
Calculated rating
Model %
EV
1
Poet Master
8
105
23.0
104.57
13.0%
+1.98
2
Thunder Call
1
102
4.5
104.41
12.5%
-0.44
3
Pellitory
17
104
17.0
104.10
11.8%
+1.01
4
Moonfall
11
101
5.0
103.23
9.9%
-0.51
5
Two Tribes
5
103
19.0
102.91
9.3%
+0.77
6
Five Ways
10
104
41.0
102.57
8.7%
+2.56
7
Arctic Dawn
18
103
26.0
102.36
8.3%
+1.17
8
Hickory
9
99
15.0
99.32
4.5%
-0.32
9
Great Acclaim
14
99
17.0
99.10
4.3%
-0.26
10
Mezcala
16
97
8.5
98.30
3.7%
-0.69
11
Machadadorp
13
96
11.0
96.86
2.8%
-0.70
12
Desert Shadow
6
96
13.0
96.57
2.6%
-0.66
13
River King
2
95
8.0
96.41
2.5%
-0.80
14
Realign
7
94
21.0
93.73
1.5%
-0.69
15
Golden Mind
4
95
41.0
93.57
1.4%
-0.41
16
The Fingal Raven
12
93
23.0
92.57
1.2%
-0.73
17
Hawksbill
15
92
15.0
92.32
1.1%
-0.83
18
Aalto
3
90
13.0
90.57
0.8%
-0.90
There is something about the way HICKORY finishes his races that leads me to think he can confirm places with MOONFALL, his final furlong sectional was a half a second quicker when winning over 8f lto, it was 12.52.
The problem today is the 7f and just maybe that'll favour MOONFALL, not too sure.
Once i got caught up in the sectionals it led me to look into others including THUNDER CALL who to my mind won impressively over c/d lto, his final 2f were 11.28 & 11.94, it is the 11.28 that most interests me , proven stamina with the ability to quicken, while recognising the pace was fairly slow and the form of the race itself is questionable then but i'm swayed into believing TC might have the speed to finish up top dog here.
The problem today is the 7f and just maybe that'll favour MOONFALL, not too sure.
Once i got caught up in the sectionals it led me to look into others including THUNDER CALL who to my mind won impressively over c/d lto, his final 2f were 11.28 & 11.94, it is the 11.28 that most interests me , proven stamina with the ability to quicken, while recognising the pace was fairly slow and the form of the race itself is questionable then but i'm swayed into believing TC might have the speed to finish up top dog here.
DuckandDive
Mare
After short-listing the field to 12 from 18, my main focus is on:
Moonfall 5/1+ / River King 9/1+ / Machadorp 18/1+ (value based decision) (ideally just before the off time)
Moonfall 5/1+ / River King 9/1+ / Machadorp 18/1+ (value based decision) (ideally just before the off time)
markfinn
Sire
The top three
- Golden Mind (95):
- 4lb below his winning mark at the same weight.
- His jockey has won on him.
- Against: he gets the going flag. All three of his Good to Firm runs this year were at Ascot, and he was beaten 10 lengths or more each time. On Good here he was 4th of 28 in May.
- Against: his handicap wins were on Heavy and on the all-weather.
- Mezcala (85):
- Won over this course and distance in June off 94 in a 28-runner field.
- Level with that win on OR and weight once the 4yo allowance is applied.
- His jockey has won on him twice.
- Against: 12th of 16 and 6th of 17 since.
- Realign (80):
- 10lb lighter than his win.
- Against: every handicap run has been at 5f or 6f, so 7f is untried in handicaps.
- Against: 42 days off, and he has no course or distance win.
gerry
Mare
Cashelman your actually doing something similar to what i did turning them all into out of 10 pts down system but if i can suggest something absolutely crucial to your list in fact i am going to suggest something that could make it incredibly good.Three things keep everything you have there 1/ add in up or down in class maybe richest race gets 10 down to lowest next two points i would not just add them in but i would give first of these two a added point so its like 10+1 9+1 down this gives this more merit just enough to make it current and 2/ is last three runs added together for consistent form so your letting that not drift to far away, and now final one and to me the biggest of them all and hard to believe its not there anyway ground dependant give them points for right ground and i would make this incredibly strong as in 10+2 points 9+2 down makes it very important all these added points just make it that you have given the little tight races the added point to sway what you think is more important it could be others you think are more important.
After writing all this i seen you have class and form down so my error but i didnt want to change what i wrote for you so left it as was but going is to me crucial one of the most important things in racing.
Michael231
Gelding
A tricky race which will be hard to figure out but more rewarding if the winner can be found, there are too many on the convergence list to give a clue to who is coming to hand or out of form as we know what it's like at this time of year.
So thinking cap on for this one. And I like the look of: Poet Master and Mezcala only because they may be underestimated looking at their read outs.
Good luck with yours today.
15:35BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap)Ascot • Flat • 7f • Good to Firm • Class 2
CONVERGENCE ALERT — 10 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning
PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 123–138lbs (15lbs spread) • Midpoint: 130.5lbs • Median weight (131.0lbs) is 0.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 98 (OR ✓ = at/above median)
🏟 Ascot: Right-handed • Favoured draw: Straight Variable • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Straight course — high draw (stands side) favoured on fast ground, low on soft. Variable.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsVery hot pace expected
Front Runner
Moonfall
67% FR • Stall 11
Desert Shadow
77% FR • Stall 6
Machadadorp
67% FR • Stall 13
River King
75% FR • Stall 2
Poet Master
88% FR • Stall 8
Prominent
Hawksbill
53% FR • Stall 15
Golden Mind
42% FR • Stall 4
Great Acclaim
48% FR • Stall 14
Versatile
Two Tribes
29% FR • Stall 5
Thunder Call
33% FR • Stall 1
Pellitory
26% FR • Stall 17
Mezcala
27% FR • Stall 16
Five Ways
0% FR • Stall 10
Hold-Up
Aalto (FR)
33% FR • Stall 3
Hickory
33% FR • Stall 9
5 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Aalto (FR) (Stall 3), Hickory (Stall 9)
So thinking cap on for this one. And I like the look of: Poet Master and Mezcala only because they may be underestimated looking at their read outs.
Good luck with yours today.
15:35BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap)Ascot • Flat • 7f • Good to Firm • Class 2
CONVERGENCE ALERT — 10 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning| Horse | Odds | Signals | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machadadorp | 14/1 | RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner · trainer 43% w/Front Runners |  ELIMINATED |
| Golden Mind | 40/1  odds≥runners | strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · SP↓ vs last run |  STRONGLY BACKED |
| Moonfall | 9/2 | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · trainer 47% w/Front Runners |  TOP PICK |
| Desert Shadow | 16/1 | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · trainer 45% w/Front Runners | ELIMINATED |
| Two Tribes | 18/1 odds≥runners | RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · SP↓ vs last run |  WATCH |
| Pellitory | 16/1 | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · SP↓ vs last run | WATCH |
| Hawksbill | 12/1 | strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · SP↓ vs last run | ELIMINATED |
| Aalto (FR) | 12/1 | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going | ELIMINATED |
| River King | 7/1 | RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · trainer 34% w/Front Runners | ELIMINATED |
| Poet Master | 18/1 odds≥runners | RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · trainer 44% w/Front Runners | WATCH |
PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 123–138lbs (15lbs spread) • Midpoint: 130.5lbs • Median weight (131.0lbs) is 0.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 98 (OR ✓ = at/above median)🏟 Ascot: Right-handed • Favoured draw: Straight Variable • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Straight course — high draw (stands side) favoured on fast ground, low on soft. Variable.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsVery hot pace expectedFront Runner
Moonfall
67% FR • Stall 11
Desert Shadow
77% FR • Stall 6
Machadadorp
67% FR • Stall 13
River King
75% FR • Stall 2
Poet Master
88% FR • Stall 8
Prominent
Hawksbill
53% FR • Stall 15
Golden Mind
42% FR • Stall 4
Great Acclaim
48% FR • Stall 14
Versatile
Two Tribes
29% FR • Stall 5
Thunder Call
33% FR • Stall 1
Pellitory
26% FR • Stall 17
Mezcala
27% FR • Stall 16
Five Ways
0% FR • Stall 10
Hold-Up
Aalto (FR)
33% FR • Stall 3
Hickory
33% FR • Stall 9
5 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Aalto (FR) (Stall 3), Hickory (Stall 9)
| # | Horse | Draw | OR | Odds | Wgt | DSLR | Bowers | Pace Profile | Draw Score | Bonuses | KNN | Final Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moonfall G Boughey / Billy Loughnane | 11 | 101 ✓ | 9/2 SP 5.5 card: 13/2 | 132 | 21 | #6 | Front Runner 67% FR / 33% HU 7/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 11 |  Strongly backed 7.5→9/2   SP longer than last run (3.3→5.5) Course winner 2nd last run | Consistent placer RPR 109 vs OR 101 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR trending up +3pts | TS 100 — at/above career best  RaceIQ FSP 101% last run (Ascot) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating -8 (well below handicapper expectations )🏋 Trainer 47% with Front Runners (145/310)  IV 2.89 (Strong) — large fields ✓+6.48 | 0% Poor | 13.81 | TOP PICK C |
| 5✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 2 | Desert Shadow v S bin Suroor / K Shoemark | 6 | 96 | 16/1 SP 17.0 card: 12/1 | 129 | 35 | #11 | Front Runner 77% FR / 8% HU 7/10 13 runs | — 3/5 Stall 6 | Drifting badly 13.0→16/1 SP longer than last run (2.5→17.0) | won last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner | Beaten fav 2nd last run | Won prev run | Consistent placer RPR 104 vs OR 96 — ahead of hcp ✓ | TS 79 — near career best RaceIQ FSP trending down -7pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class rise (Cls 3→2)🏋 Trainer 45% with Front Runners (25/55) IV 2.89 (Strong) — sprint trips ✓+4.7 | 0% Poor | 11.77 | ELIMINATED D bf |
| 4✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 3 | Machadadorp A M Balding / Callum Hutchinson | 13 | 96 | 14/1 SP 15.0 card: 15/2 | 127 | 44 | #10 | Front Runner 67% FR / 11% HU 8/10 9 runs | — 3/5 Stall 13 | Drifting badly 8.5→14/1 SP longer than last run (5.0→15.0) Distance winner Won last run RPR 107 vs OR 96 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +7pts last 3 runs | TS 96 — at/above career best Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class rise (Cls 3→2) 🏋 Trainer 43% with Front Runners (323/744) IV 2.55 (Strong) — large fields ✓ | sprint trips ✓+4.18 | 0% Poor | 11.6 | ELIMINATED D |
| 4✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 4 | Two Tribes b R Spencer / Toby Moore | 5 | 103 ✓ | 18/1 SP 19.0 card: 16/1 | 136 | 14 | #5 | Versatile 29% FR / 38% HU 4/10 21 runs | — 3/5 Stall 5 | Drifting 17.0→18/1 SP shorter than last run (28.0→19.0) ✓ | 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner RPR 110 vs OR 103 — ahead of hcp ✓ RaceIQ FSP 108% last run (Ascot) — finished well above par | RaceIQ FSP trending up +19pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -4 (below expectations ) 14 days — ideal freshness IV 2.57 (Strong) — large fields ✓ 7lb claim+5.15 | 0% Poor | 11.46 | WATCH CD |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 5 | Thunder Call W J Haggas / Harry Davies | 1 | 102 ✓ | 9/2 SP 5.5 card: 11/4 | 133 | 28 | #4 | Versatile 33% FR / 33% HU 5/10 9 runs | — 3/5 Stall 1 | Drifting badly 3.8→9/2 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner Won last run | Consistent placer RPR 97 vs OR 102 — behind hcp RaceIQ FSP 109% last run (Ascot) — finished well above par | RaceIQ FSP trending up +8pts over last 2 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) IV 2.89 (Strong) — sprint trips ✓ +4.7 | 0% Poor | 11.38 | WATCH CD |
| 4✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✗ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 6 | Pellitory t D O'Meara / D Tudhope | 17 | 104 ✓ | 16/1 SP 17.0 card: 14/1 | 137 | 14 | #2 | Versatile 26% FR / 32% HU 4/10 19 runs | — 3/5 Stall 17 | Drifting 15.0→16/1 SP shorter than last run (22.0→17.0) ✓ Distance winner Won last run | Consistent placer RPR 110 vs OR 104 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR declining -6pts | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP 101% last run (Goodwood) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class rise (Cls 3→2) 14 days — ideal freshness IV 2.49 (Strong) — large fields ✓ | sprint trips ✓ +4.7 | 0% Poor | 11.06 | WATCH D |
| 4✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 7 | Hawksbill R Spencer / George Wood | 15 | 92 | 12/1 SP 13.0 card: 25/1 | 125 | 14 | #14 | Prominent 53% FR / 7% HU 10/10 15 runs | — 3/5 Stall 15 | Strongly backed 26.0→12/1 SP shorter than last run (25.0→13.0) ✓ 2nd last run RPR 114 vs OR 92 — well ahead of hcp | TS 102 — at/above career best Master Rating +1 (as expected) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to Firm) 14 days — ideal freshness IV 0.0 (Poor) — large fields | sprint trips +3.0 | 20% Weak | 10.95 | ELIMINATED |
| 2✓ 2✗ | Going ✗ | Distance ? | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 8 | Aalto (FR) t Ian Williams / Lewis Edmunds | 3 | 90 | 12/1 13.0 | 123 | 14 | #15 | Hold-Up 33% FR / 67% HU 2/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 3 | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner | Beaten fav 2nd last run | Consistent placer RPR 103 vs OR 90 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -11pts Master Rating -3 (below expectations ) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to Firm) ✓ 14 days — ideal freshness IV 3.86 (Strong) — large fields ✓ | sprint trips ✓+5.6 | 40% Moderate | 10.66 | ELIMINATED D bf |
| 5✓ 0✗ | Going ✓ | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 9 | River King R Hannon / S M Levey | 2 | 95 | 7/1 SP 8.0 card: 10/1 | 128 | 21 | #12 | Front Runner 75% FR / 25% HU 7/10 8 runs | — 3/5 Stall 2 | Strongly backed 11.0→7/1 RPR 111 vs OR 95 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +11pts last 3 runs | TS 94 — at/above career best Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🏋 Trainer 34% with Front Runners (171/498) IV 0.44 (Poor) — large fields | sprint trips +3.57 | 0% Poor | 10.62 | ELIMINATED |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 10 | Golden Mind t R & P Fahey / Warren Fentiman | 4 | 95 | 40/1 SP 41.0 card: 66/1 | 128 | 28 | #13 | Prominent 42% FR / 42% HU 7/10 24 runs | — 3/5 Stall 4 | Strongly backed 67.0→40/1 SP shorter than last run (66.0→41.0) ✓ Distance winner RPR 115 vs OR 95 — well ahead of hcp | RPR 7pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP trending down -6pts over last 3 runs Master Rating -7 (below expectations ) IV 0.0 (Poor) — large fields | sprint trips +3.36 | 0% Poor | 10.37 | STRONGLY BACKED D |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 11 | Mezcala J Channon / George Bass | 16 | 97 | 11/2 SP 6.5 card: 15/2 | 130 | 21 | #9 | Versatile 27% FR / 36% HU 6/10 11 runs | — 3/5 Stall 16 | Backed 8.5→11/2 ✓ SP longer than last run (4.5→6.5) Course winner | Distance winner RPR 111 vs OR 97 — well ahead of hcp | RPR 5pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ Master Rating -5 (below expectations ) IV 0.0 (Poor) — large fields | sprint trips +3.3 | 0% Poor | 10.1 |  NOT BOWERS BUT!CD |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 12 | Great Acclaim v Eve Johnson Houghton / Oliver Carmichael | 14 | 99 ✓ | 18/1 SP 19.0 card: 16/1 | 132 | 49 | #7 | Prominent 48% FR / 24% HU 9/10 21 runs | — 3/5 Stall 14 | Drifting 17.0→18/1 Distance winner RPR 106 vs OR 99 — ahead of hcp ✓ Master Rating -12 (well below handicapper expectations ) IV 0.0 (Poor) — large fields | sprint trips 7lb claim +1.8 | 20% Weak | 9.69 | WATCH D |
| 2✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 13 | Poet Master K R Burke / C Lee | 8 | 105 ✓ | 18/1 SP 19.0 card: 20/1 | 138 | 67 | #1 | Front Runner 88% FR / 0% HU 9/10 8 runs | — 3/5 Stall 8 | Steady at 18/1 SP longer than last run (14.0→19.0) Distance winner RPR 120 vs OR 105 — well ahead of hcp | RPR 7pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ | TS 97 — at/above career best RaceIQ FSP 104% last run (Goodwood) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 1→2) ✓ 67 days — slightly long absence 🏋 Trainer 44% with Front Runners (237/536) IV 0.0 (Poor) — sprint trips +1.28 | 0% Poor | 9.43 | WATCH D |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 14 | Hickory p J A Osborne / P J McDonald | 9 | 99 ✓ | 22/1 SP 23.0 card: 12/1 | 132 | 29 | #8 | Hold-Up 33% FR / 67% HU 1/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 9 | Drifting badly 13.0→22/1 SP longer than last run (10.0→23.0) | won last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner Won last run RaceIQ FSP 103% last run (Ascot) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating -12 (well below handicapper expectations ) Trainer 31% at Ascot (10/32) IV 0.0 (Poor)+3.1 | 0% Poor | 7.33 | ELIMINATED CD |
| 3✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ? | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 15 | Five Ways A M Balding / Jason Watson | 10 | 104 ✓ | 33/1 SP 34.0 card: 50/1 | 135 | 7 | #3 | Versatile 0% FR / 33% HU 3/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 10 | Strongly backed 51.0→33/1 RPR 107 vs OR 104 — slight edge | RPR declining -8pts 🏛 BHA -4 this week (dropped) | BHA OR 100 (card shows 104 — rated lower than card) RaceIQ FSP 95% last run (Chester) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -6pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) 7 days — ideal freshness IV 0.0 (Poor) — sprint trips +1.2 | 0% Poor | 7.2 | STRONGLY BACKED |
| 2✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ? | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 16 | Arctic Dawn p D & C Kubler / Callum Shepherd | 18 | 103 ✓ | 28/1 SP 29.0 card: 25/1 | 136 | 7 | #16 | Prominent 43% FR / 19% HU 8/10 21 runs | — 3/5 Stall 18 | — | — | — |  MARKET REJECTD |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? | ||||||
| 17 | Realign (FR) W J Haggas / P J Dobbs | 7 | 94 | 25/1 26.0 | 127 | 42 | #16 | Prominent 42% FR / 42% HU 9/10 12 runs | — 3/5 Stall 7 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT |
| 2✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 18 | The Fingal Raven t p1 J A Osborne / William Carver | 12 | 93 | 25/1 SP 26.0 card: 25/1 | 126 | 7 | #16 | Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 8/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 12 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT D |
| 4✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ |
Cashelman
Filly
Three things keep everything you have there 1/ add in up or down in class maybe richest race gets 10 down to lowest next two points i would not just add them in but i would give first of these two a added point so its like 10+1 9+1 down this gives this more merit just enough to make it current and 2/ is last three runs added together for consistent form so your letting that not drift to far away, and now final one and to me the biggest of them all and hard to believe its not there anyway ground dependant give them points for right ground and i would make this incredibly strong as in 10+2 points 9+2 down makes it very important all these added points just make it that you have given the little tight races the added point to sway what you think is more important it could be others you think are more important.
After writing all this i seen you have class and form down so my error but i didnt want to change what i wrote for you so left it as was but going is to me crucial one of the most important things in racing.
gerry I have the going as one of my categories but I can see for some reason it’s not showing in the output will have to rectify that
MySportsAI
Colt
River King
Poet Master
Poet Master
| Ascot_15:35_2026-10-03 | River King (IRE) | 0.041119 |
| Ascot_15:35_2026-10-03 | Poet Master (IRE) | 0.048135 |
| Ascot_15:35_2026-10-03 | Moonfall (IRE) | 0.050548 |
| Ascot_15:35_2026-10-03 | Arctic Dawn | 0.053381 |
| Ascot_15:35_2026-10-03 | Realign (FR) | 0.053381 |
| Ascot_15:35_2026-10-03 | Thunder Call | 0.053521 |
tony spencer
Colt
Ascot Race 1 — 7f, Class 2, 17 runners.
The headline is that this looks like a properly contested 7f, but not necessarily a total burn-up. The report expects enough pressure for finishing strength to matter, while still giving a chance to horses that can sit handy and conserve energy. The likely leader is Poet Master, with Machadadorp and Hawksbill the next most obvious pace horses. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
Behind him, Machadadorp (12) and Hawksbill (14) should be prominent, with Five Ways (9) also capable of sitting forward. That gives us pace on more than one part of the straight course: low/middle through Poet Master and some pressure higher up through Machadadorp and Hawksbill. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
That matters because the race may split into pace groups rather than everyone following one leader.
The best overall profile is therefore not an all-out leader and not a stone-cold hold-up horse. It is a runner that can sit close enough, relax, and still finish strongly. That is exactly how I would read this race. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
1. Aalto
2. Pellitory
3. Thunder Call
Aalto is the best outright finisher, but his projected early rank is only 16/17. Pellitory is 11/17 early and Thunder Call 12/17. All three therefore need some pace help and a clean run through traffic. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
He is not top on AbilityPlus, but the various pieces fit together better than with most. He is drawn 1, which is in the best recent draw zone, ranks 3rd on FinishStrength, and is #1 on the trainer model with a 10.50% model win probability and a very strong placement score of 59.20. The report itself labels him a Strong Contender. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
His risk is position: he is expected around 12th early, so I would prefer Harry Davies not to drop him completely out. If he can sit a little closer than projected and still preserve his finish, he has an excellent blend of draw, trainer support and finishing power.
The report calls him the best model + setup blend. He is a strong finisher, ranks 5th on FinishStrength, and his stable is in notably good form — 15-run AE 1.36, daily AE 1.54, trend rising. He is also #2 on the trainer model. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
The obvious concern is that he is projected 14th early from draw 15, so he has the same broad issue as some of the closers: he needs the race to come back enough and will need racing room.
But I would not simply take that price at face value. He is drawn 16, projects only 11th early, and David O'Meara's recent trainer metrics are a significant negative. The report specifically warns that he needs the race to fall right. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
So I see him as the value/outside danger, rather than the horse most likely to get the ideal race.
He is #1 on FinishStrength, with a substantial finishing edge, and is drawn 3 in the best recent draw zone. But he is projected 16th of 17 early, has been slow or awkward away in 7 of his last 10 starts, and has encountered traffic in 3 of those 10. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
He is the horse I would most expect to be flying late if they overdo it up front.
He has the best projected early position, is AbilityPlus #2, and if Clifford Lee gets a controlled lead he can be hard to catch. But his profile screams vulnerability in the last furlong: FinishStrength rank 17, weakening recent trainer data, and he has raced keenly in 5 of his last 10. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
For me, he is the horse most likely to make the race rather than the one I most want finishing it.
I would class him as a credible outsider rather than a principal danger.
That should make the final two furlongs increasingly important.
The horses I expect to benefit most if that happens are Thunder Call, Mezcala, Pellitory and Aalto.
My preferred shape is:
Thunder Call — best overall blend
Mezcala — strongest danger
Pellitory — big model/value danger
Aalto — late closer if they overdo it
Poet Master — dangerous if allowed to dictate
The one I would side with for the winner is Thunder Call, narrowly over Mezcala. I prefer Thunder Call because he combines the low draw, strongest trainer-model signal and elite finishing profile without quite as much of the high-draw/traffic dependency faced by Mezcala and Pellitory.
The biggest thing that can beat him is position. If Thunder Call is buried too far back and the pace never fully develops, Poet Master or another prominent horse could steal enough of a tactical advantage. If they go genuinely hard, then Aalto and Pellitory become much more dangerous late.
The headline is that this looks like a properly contested 7f, but not necessarily a total burn-up. The report expects enough pressure for finishing strength to matter, while still giving a chance to horses that can sit handy and conserve energy. The likely leader is Poet Master, with Machadadorp and Hawksbill the next most obvious pace horses. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
Likely pace map
Poet Master — draw 7 is the most likely leader. The pace model gives him the clearest early role, but there is a sting in the tail: he ranks 17th of 17 on FinishStrength, so if he is pressed, he is vulnerable late. His stable form is also a genuine negative, with recent AE measures below expectation. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…Behind him, Machadadorp (12) and Hawksbill (14) should be prominent, with Five Ways (9) also capable of sitting forward. That gives us pace on more than one part of the straight course: low/middle through Poet Master and some pressure higher up through Machadadorp and Hawksbill. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
That matters because the race may split into pace groups rather than everyone following one leader.
How Ascot 7f usually plays
The course evidence is not as strongly front-runner biased as the 5f. In big fields, 56.72% of winners came from the front half, while 26.87% came from the rear quarter. So being handy helps, but closers absolutely can win if the early pace is strong enough. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…The best overall profile is therefore not an all-out leader and not a stone-cold hold-up horse. It is a runner that can sit close enough, relax, and still finish strongly. That is exactly how I would read this race. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
The strongest late horses
The FinishStrength model has:1. Aalto
2. Pellitory
3. Thunder Call
Aalto is the best outright finisher, but his projected early rank is only 16/17. Pellitory is 11/17 early and Thunder Call 12/17. All three therefore need some pace help and a clean run through traffic. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
Who I think has the best overall chance
Thunder Call is the horse I like most from a professional race-reading perspective.He is not top on AbilityPlus, but the various pieces fit together better than with most. He is drawn 1, which is in the best recent draw zone, ranks 3rd on FinishStrength, and is #1 on the trainer model with a 10.50% model win probability and a very strong placement score of 59.20. The report itself labels him a Strong Contender. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
His risk is position: he is expected around 12th early, so I would prefer Harry Davies not to drop him completely out. If he can sit a little closer than projected and still preserve his finish, he has an excellent blend of draw, trainer support and finishing power.
Main danger — Mezcala
Mezcala is probably the biggest danger to Thunder Call for me.The report calls him the best model + setup blend. He is a strong finisher, ranks 5th on FinishStrength, and his stable is in notably good form — 15-run AE 1.36, daily AE 1.54, trend rising. He is also #2 on the trainer model. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
The obvious concern is that he is projected 14th early from draw 15, so he has the same broad issue as some of the closers: he needs the race to come back enough and will need racing room.
Pellitory — dangerous, but with baggage
Pellitory is AbilityPlus #1 on 93.65 and ranks 2nd on FinishStrength, so he cannot be dismissed. His model probability is 9.75%, equivalent to about 10.26, while the report had the market around 28.00. On raw model terms that is a huge discrepancy. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…But I would not simply take that price at face value. He is drawn 16, projects only 11th early, and David O'Meara's recent trainer metrics are a significant negative. The report specifically warns that he needs the race to fall right. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
So I see him as the value/outside danger, rather than the horse most likely to get the ideal race.
Aalto — biggest late threat
If they go faster than expected, Aalto becomes very dangerous.He is #1 on FinishStrength, with a substantial finishing edge, and is drawn 3 in the best recent draw zone. But he is projected 16th of 17 early, has been slow or awkward away in 7 of his last 10 starts, and has encountered traffic in 3 of those 10. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
He is the horse I would most expect to be flying late if they overdo it up front.
Poet Master — tactical danger, but vulnerable late
Poet Master could easily travel like the winner for a long way.He has the best projected early position, is AbilityPlus #2, and if Clifford Lee gets a controlled lead he can be hard to catch. But his profile screams vulnerability in the last furlong: FinishStrength rank 17, weakening recent trainer data, and he has raced keenly in 5 of his last 10. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…
For me, he is the horse most likely to make the race rather than the one I most want finishing it.
Arctic Dawn
Arctic Dawn is interesting at a big price because AbilityPlus has him third, only 1.48 points behind Pellitory. But his practical profile is weaker: high draw 17, held-up style, only mid-level finishing power relative to this field, and trainer form below expectation. 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De… 2026-10-03_ASCOT_(GB)_Race_1_De…I would class him as a credible outsider rather than a principal danger.
My race picture
I expect Poet Master to take them along, with Machadadorp and Hawksbill close enough to prevent an easy lead. Five Ways and possibly River King/Realign should sit in the next wave.That should make the final two furlongs increasingly important.
The horses I expect to benefit most if that happens are Thunder Call, Mezcala, Pellitory and Aalto.
My preferred shape is:
Thunder Call — best overall blend
Mezcala — strongest danger
Pellitory — big model/value danger
Aalto — late closer if they overdo it
Poet Master — dangerous if allowed to dictate
The one I would side with for the winner is Thunder Call, narrowly over Mezcala. I prefer Thunder Call because he combines the low draw, strongest trainer-model signal and elite finishing profile without quite as much of the high-draw/traffic dependency faced by Mezcala and Pellitory.
The biggest thing that can beat him is position. If Thunder Call is buried too far back and the pace never fully develops, Poet Master or another prominent horse could steal enough of a tactical advantage. If they go genuinely hard, then Aalto and Pellitory become much more dangerous late.
Paul Brown
Gelding
Realign 3.35 Ascot my pick
My second best was
Pellitory
My second best was
Pellitory
