Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

[Sol Ski]

Well done the winners
I did not place a live bet as Chat gpt is flaging up an issue with the way i have weighted the horses weight score in my ratings.
So i need to look at this.
I have used 5 years of data and 1400 race samples to update this to a smoothed weight rank.

 

[Michael231]

Well done those that had the winner and those who took part as well

 

[FHRTIPS]

Well done to the winners

 

[tacker]

Catching up and congrats to PETER THE WOLF tippers.

 

[Leodis]

A fair track and runners with exposed form:

17:35
Thirsk​

7f Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference & Events Venue Handicap (Div II) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-80)​

 

[FHRTIPS]

 

[mlmrob]

Obelix was very unlucky last time. Alongside the winner 2f out, he was hampered and lost 6ls. He 2ls down at the line.
The race itself was run at pace. The two leaders were 15ls quicker at half way than the other 7f races on the card.
It looks like the form may stand up and already the sixth and eighth home have subsequently won.
The race was an 0-80, like today and the twice Obelix has run in this grade he has won and that unlucky fourth.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

17:55 Thirsk.

Obelix

Horse	OR	Odds	Full MR Values	Best MR	Avg Best 2	MR+17	MR+17 − OR
Obelix	81	11/4–3/1	73,35,62,62,58,43	73	67.5	90	+9
Nyman	70	3/1–10/3	22,44,12,31,36,50	50	47	67	−3
Mr King	77	9/2–4/1	48,55,69,32,46,46	69	62	86	+9
Capital Guarantee	78	15/2–9/1	34,48,49,61,40,40	61	55	78	0
Imperial Guard	75	6/1–15/2	22,57,42,49,31,36	57	53	74	−1
Fiscal Policy	71	17/2–8/1	56,58,41,31,34,48	58	57	75	+4
Midnight Strike	77	10/1–14/1	47,60,62,32,25,35	62	61	79	+2
Packetofbiscuits	72	22/1–33/1	26,19,19,30,59,59	59	59	76	+4
Stanley Spencer	81	18/1–33/1	57,50,45,45,52,44	57	54.5	74	−7

 

[MySportsAI]

The sum of ranks from the Wisdom of Models go's Nyman

Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,NYMAN,"['1.0', '4.0', '5.0', '4.0', '2.0', '6.0']",22.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,OBELIX,"['4.0', '1.0', '4.0', '3.0', '6.0', '7.0']",25.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,IMPERIAL GUARD,"['3.0', '3.0', '7.0', '7.0', '3.0', '5.0']",28.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,MR KING,"['7.0', '2.0', '2.0', '1.0', '8.0', '9.0']",29.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,CAPITAL GUARANTEE,"['9.0', '7.0', '3.0', '5.0', '1.0', '4.0']",29.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,FISCAL POLICY,"['6.0', '6.0', '1.0', '2.0', '7.0', '8.0']",30.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,MIDNIGHT STRIKE,"['5.0', '5.0', '9.0', '6.0', '4.0', '2.0']",31.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,STANLEY SPENCER,"['8.0', '8.0', '6.0', '8.0', '5.0', '1.0']",36.0
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,PACKETOFBISCUITS,"['2.0', '9.0', '8.0', '9.0', '9.0', '3.0']",40.0

The regression on the same individual model probabilities go's Mr King

Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,MR KING,0.62,0.81,0.99,1.0,0.03,0.0,0.2224771551768193
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,OBELIX,0.18,1.0,0.93,0.84,0.16,0.19,0.16948141321191693
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,NYMAN,0.0,0.66,0.91,0.75,0.26,0.24,0.13925415847186517
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,IMPERIAL GUARD,0.02,0.76,0.86,0.45,0.25,0.3,0.12362279770554269
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,FISCAL POLICY,0.55,0.35,1.0,0.94,0.05,0.03,0.1230529943945479
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,CAPITAL GUARANTEE,1.0,0.24,0.94,0.72,1.0,0.34,0.11984189969276707
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,STANLEY SPENCER,0.66,0.22,0.89,0.44,0.18,1.0,0.0944128376199916
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,MIDNIGHT STRIKE,0.37,0.48,0.0,0.66,0.18,0.54,0.08234738751200371
Thirsk_17:35_2026-09-05,PACKETOFBISCUITS,0.02,0.0,0.8,0.0,0.0,0.45,0.06588940581025844

 

[Sol Ski]

Pure Performance Comparison

Horse	OR (Official Rating)	Avg SF (Speed Figure)	Ran Well %	C/D Proven	TAC Rating
Mr King	77	69.3 (Rank 1)	40.0% (Rank 1)	CD(Course & Distance)	0.74
Obelix	81 (Rank 1)	67.0 (Rank 2)	33.3%	D (Distance)	0.91
Fiscal Policy	71	66.3	25.0%	None	1.37 (Rank 1)
Stanley Spencer	81 (Rank 1)	53.0	34.6%	None	1.30

this is using the data under the heading MY racecard on racemetrics. i am keeping my timeform AW ratings seperate.
i will look at the market nearer the off.
Median OR is 77.

 

[Leodis]

Obelix rises to the top of the ranks of well handicapped/rated runners, based on its 11 Jul 25 run.

Not had that many runs on this ground to ascertain whether or not it is suitable and it's last 3 performance pars could have been better, going into this race.

Has a decent draw for its running style.

 

[Michael231]

A very tricky race this and am finding it hard to pin point a winner, but looking into the file and I go with:
Nyman and Fiscal Policy though a case can be made for at least 6 of the runners


17:35 Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference Events Venue Handicap Thirsk • Flat • 7f • Good to soft • Class 4

CONVERGENCE ALERT — 6 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning

Horse	Odds	Signals	Verdict
Nyman	10/3	draw 4/5 · strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner	NOT BOWERS BUT!
Capital Guarantee	8/1	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner	CONTENDER
Mr King	7/2	draw 4/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner	CONTENDER
Midnight Strike	11/1	RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · ideal going	ELIMINATED
Imperial Guard	8/1	RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner	ELIMINATED
Obelix	11/4	draw 4/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner	WATCH

NEAR-BALANCED • Weight range: 125–136lbs (11lbs spread) • Midpoint: 130.5lbs • Median weight (132lbs) is 1.5lbs from midpoint — no Bowers boost (historically -21.3% ROI unfiltered) • Median OR: 77 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Thirsk: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Left-handed. Low draws historically strong, especially in sprints.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Moderate pace expected

Front Runner

None

Prominent

Capital Guarantee
45% FR • Stall 8
Midnight Strike
50% FR • Stall 7
Fiscal Policy
36% FR • Stall 9
Imperial Guard
35% FR • Stall 5

Versatile

Nyman
33% FR • Stall 3

Hold-Up

Mr King
14% FR • Stall 1
Obelix
12% FR • Stall 2

4 prominent racer(s) likely to set a workable gallop without it turning into a speed battle.
Watch: Nyman (Stall 3), Capital Guarantee (Stall 8)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Nyman Roger Fell / Joanna Mason	3	70	10/3 SP 4.33 card: 11	125	21	#6	Versatile 33% FR / 0% HU 8/10 3 runs	4/5 Stall 3	Strongly backed 11.0→10/3 Distance winner RPR 94 vs OR 70 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +7pts last 3 runs Master Rating -1 (as expected) Slight class rise (Cls 5→4) IV 1.81 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ +4.5	0% Poor	10.92	NOT BOWERS BUT! D
2	Capital Guarantee D OMeara / Billy Garritty	8	78 ✓	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 13	133	21	#3	Prominent 45% FR / 18% HU 9/10 22 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 8	Strongly backed 13.0→8/1 Course winner | Distance winner RPR 91 vs OR 78 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating -7 (below expectations ) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields +3.8	60% Strong	10.56	CONTENDER CD
3	Mr King h G A Harker / D Allan	1	77 ✓	7/2 SP 4.5 card: 5	132	14	#2	Hold-Up 14% FR / 50% HU 3/10 14 runs	4/5 Stall 1	Backed 5.0→7/2 ✓ Course winner | Distance winner RPR 87 vs OR 77 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating -11 (well below handicapper expectations ) 14 days — ideal freshness IV 1.64 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ +4.7	0% Poor	9.66	CONTENDER CD
4	Midnight Strike p | t J Candlish / Darragh Keenan	7	77 ✓	11/1 SP 12.0 card: 9	132	34	#4	Prominent 50% FR / 25% HU 8/10 12 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 7	Drifting badly 9.0→11/1 3rd last run RPR 96 vs OR 77 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +17pts last 3 runs Master Rating -2 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ +3.0	40% Moderate	9.36	ELIMINATED
5	Fiscal Policy Mrs R Carr / J P Sullivan	9	71	15/2 SP 8.5 card: 4.5	126	20	#7	Prominent 36% FR / 27% HU 8/10 22 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 9	Drifting badly 4.5→15/2 3rd last run RPR 95 vs OR 71 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +6pts last 3 runs | RPR 5pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ | TS 87 — near career best Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 3→4) ✓ IV 1.81 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ +3.0	20% Weak	9.12	ELIMINATED
6	Imperial Guard M Dods / Connor Beasley	5	75	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 8	130	21	#5	Prominent 35% FR / 24% HU 7/10 17 runs	— 3/5 Stall 5	Drifting 8.0→8/1 Distance winner Won prev run RPR 88 vs OR 75 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +19pts last 3 runs Master Rating -4 (below expectations ) Slight class rise (Cls 5→4) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields +2.7	0% Poor	8.79	ELIMINATED D
7	Obelix Miss J A Camacho / Jason Hart	2	81 ✓	11/4 SP 3.75 card: 4	136	24	#1	Hold-Up 12% FR / 56% HU 3/10 16 runs	4/5 Stall 2	Steady at 11/4 Distance winner RPR 88 vs OR 81 — ahead of hcp ✓ Master Rating -10 (well below handicapper expectations ) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields +1.5	0% Poor	6.65	WATCH D
8	Packetofbiscuits b J Mackie / Finlay Bassett	4	72	25/1 SP 26.0 card: 26	127	18	#8	Prominent 48% FR / 26% HU 8/10 23 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
9	Stanley Spencer p Fionn McSharry / Mikey Sheehy	6	81 ✓	28/1 SP 29.0 card: 13	136	14	#8	Front Runner 67% FR / 13% HU 8/10 15 runs	— 3/5 Stall 6	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT

 

[DuckandDive]

Not too easy overall.

I'd side with both Capital Guarantee & Fiscal Policy for value, and a more suitable pace style (if employed).

 

[Sullybomb]

I like Nyman & Capital Guarantee

1735 @ Thirsk Racecard

 

[pawras]

Obelix and a saver on Capita; Guarantee

 

[pawras]

Well done Nyman backers !

 

[Sullybomb]

Well Done MySportsAI Michael231 Sullybomb with Nyman.

 

[MySportsAI]

Is anyone tracking the consensus performance in these races

 

[Leodis]

Wd all

 

[FHRTIPS]

Well done all, mine was a non runner but had 2nd for placed