Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

[tacker]

Well done DuckandDive

 

[DuckandDive]

For the record, pawras ratings had the winner too.

 

[pawras]

For the record, pawras ratings had the winner too.

View attachment 171034

Typical when I didn't get involved cos I was too distracted with something I'm doing re modelling exactas and trifectas.

Well done with your winners guys

 

[FHRTIPS]

Well done to the guys that had the winner

 

[Sol Ski]

Call Time to win @7/2

 

[FHRTIPS]

Recon Mission eachway @9.5 odds

 

[Michael231]

My take on the race with an added extra to assist.
Jacky Brown and Cool time. But a really tricky race, One I would normally leave alone.
Good luck with yours


15:30 Trusted Betting Site Reviews gamblingcom Handicap Bath • Flat • 5f • Good • Class 6

CONVERGENCE ALERT — 7 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning

Horse	Odds	Signals	Verdict
Jackie Brown	11/4	draw 5/5 · strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner · ideal going	NOT BOWERS BUT!
Symbol of Hope	9/1	strongly backed · Master Rating +ve · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · ideal going	ELIMINATED
Fancy Dancer	10/3	RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · CD winner · ideal going	CONTENDER
Wedgewood	7/1	RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner · ideal going	ELIMINATED
Stapleford Park	16/1	strongly backed · Master Rating +ve · RPR ahead of hcp	STRONGLY BACKED
Call Time	10/3	draw 5/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · CD winner	WATCH
Coolagh Magic	14/1	RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going	WATCH

PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 127–135lbs (8lbs spread) • Midpoint: 131.0lbs • Median weight (130.5lbs) is 0.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 50 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Bath: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • Sprint distance — draw at full effect
Left-handed. Low draws favoured in races up to a mile.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Hot pace expected

Front Runner

Recon Mission
72% FR • Stall 7
Wedgewood
88% FR • Stall 9

Prominent

Symbol of Hope
58% FR • Stall 10
Fancy Dancer
50% FR • Stall 4
Stapleford Park
42% FR • Stall 3

Versatile

Jackie Brown
20% FR • Stall 1
Call Time
31% FR • Stall 2

Hold-Up

Coolagh Magic
22% FR • Stall 6

Recon Mission and Wedgewood both want to lead — likely to set a strong gallop and tire each other out. Held-up horses could benefit.
Watch: Coolagh Magic (Stall 6)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Symbol of Hope p G Harris / Callum Hutchinson	10	46	9/1 SP 10.0 card: 15	127	16	#8	Prominent 58% FR / 17% HU 9/10 24 runs	1/5 Stall 10	Strongly backed 15.0→9/1 Course winner | Distance winner RPR 61 vs OR 46 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating +5 (above expectations ✓) 🌦 Ideal going (Good) ✓ IV 2.11 (Strong) — small fields ✓ +5.9	40% Moderate	13.08	ELIMINATED CD
2	Jackie Brown t A Wintle / Finley Marsh	1	48	11/4 SP 3.75 card: 9	129	16	#5	Versatile 20% FR / 47% HU 4/10 15 runs	5/5 Stall 1	Strongly backed 9.0→11/4 Course winner | Beaten fav Won prev run RPR 63 vs OR 48 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +6pts last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good) ✓ IV 2.11 (Strong) — small fields ✓ +6.4	0% Poor	12.73	NOT BOWERS BUT! BF|C
3	Fancy Dancer p Hayley Burton / Saffie Osborne	4	49	10/3 SP 4.33 card: 4.5	130	7	#3	Prominent 50% FR / 33% HU 8/10 18 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	Steady at 10/3 Course winner | Distance winner 2nd last run RPR 82 vs OR 49 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +20pts last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good) ✓ 7 days — ideal freshness IV 2.11 (Strong) — small fields ✓ +4.9	20% Weak	12.38	CONTENDER C|D
4	Recon Mission A W Carroll / L Morris	7	54 ✓	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 5	135	11	#1	Front Runner 72% FR / 17% HU 8/10 18 runs	1/5 Stall 7	Drifting badly 5.0→8/1 Distance winner 3rd last run | Consistent placer RPR 64 vs OR 54 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating -14 (well below handicapper expectations ) 11 days — ideal freshness Trainer 25% at Bath (20/80) +3.9	60% Strong	11.4	WATCH D
5	Wedgewood A W Carroll / Tom Marquand	9	47	7/1 SP 8.0 card: 9	128	72	#7	Front Runner 88% FR / 0% HU 9/10 16 runs	1/5 Stall 9	Backed 9.0→7/1 ✓ Course winner | Distance winner RPR 69 vs OR 47 — well ahead of hcp | RPR trending up +3pts Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good) ✓ 72 days — slightly long absence Trainer 25% at Bath (20/80) +3.6	60% Strong	10.88	ELIMINATED CD
6	Stapleford Park M J Attwater / S C Cronin	3	50 ✓	16/1 SP 17.0 card: 26	131	11	#6	Prominent 42% FR / 42% HU 7/10 12 runs	— 3/5 Stall 3	Strongly backed 26.0→16/1 RPR 67 vs OR 50 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -9pts Master Rating +5 (above expectations ✓) 11 days — ideal freshness IV 0.0 (Poor) — small fields 5lb claim +2.88	20% Weak	9.96	STRONGLY BACKED
7	Call Time p J S Moore / Taylor Fisher	2	51 ✓	10/3 SP 4.33 card: 4.33	132	5	#2	Versatile 31% FR / 19% HU 5/10 16 runs	5/5 Stall 2	Steady at 10/3 Course winner | Distance winner 3rd last run RPR 63 vs OR 51 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -10pts Master Rating -7 (below expectations ) IV 1.79 (Strong) — small fields ✓ +2.6	0% Poor	9.5	WATCH CD
8	Coolagh Magic A Carson / William Carson	6	50 ✓	14/1 SP 15.0 card: 13	131	11	#4	Hold-Up 22% FR / 52% HU 3/10 23 runs	1/5 Stall 6	Drifting 13.0→14/1 Distance winner Won prev run RPR 67 vs OR 50 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good) ✓ 11 days — ideal freshness IV 0.7 (Poor) +2.8	0% Poor	7.35	WATCH D

 

[Cashelman]

This is my take on the race with a new ratings model I am testing

 

[TheBluesBrother]

15:30 Bath.

Back in the day, this handicap would be framed as a C7.

Recon Mission


Mike.

 

[pawras]

Recon Mission and Wedgewood each way, I'm concerned about the age difference of Recon Mission

 

[mlmrob]

Its interesting that Tony Carroll has two in with Marquand and Morris riding. Morris has the better record and considering he has won five times on Wedgewood, it is interesting to see him on Recon Mission. Carroll has an 8% strike rate when he has two in a race with Morris 16-160 and Marquand 5-64. Morris is 2-4 on Wedgewood under the above circumstances. He is 0-3 on Recon Mission with one place.

Recon Mission has placed ten times from 17 starts in Class 6 with one win whilst Wedgwood has raced 35 times in Class 6 with 6 wins and 10 places.

The whole field have run 181 races in Class 6 with 25 wins, Coolagh Magic 7-45, Call Time, 1-13, Fancy Dancer 3-14, Jackie Brown 1-6, Rercon Mission 1-17, Stapleford Park 0-5, Symbol Of Hope 6-45, Wedgewood 6-35.

Anything can win it, will go for Fancy Dancer

 

[Michael231]

I recon that jockey was paid to do that.
Although it was the top bowers.
And well done all those with the winner.

 

[pawras]

Well done fellow winners !

 

[FHRTIPS]

Well done all winners

 

[markfinn]

Excellent HCPing all those R Mission finders - will look when home - Fantastic response from all posters today

 

[Sol Ski]

well done the winners

 

[DuckandDive]

Wd FHRTIPS TheBluesBrother and pawras (BSP 15.50 v ISP 10.00)!

 

[markfinn]

Really well done FHRTIPS pawras not forgetting TheBluesBrother and anyone else that made a profit on the race - not easy these races

 

[Sullybomb]

Congratulations all winners today. Nice priced winner too!!